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Why David Cameron may have already blown the EU referendum

David Cameron with supporters from a 'Stronger In' campaign event in Witney, Oxfordshire
David Cameron with some of young people who can vote in the EU referendum Credit: WILL OLIVER/REUTERS

Young people will be the ones who make the difference in next month’s EU referendum. However, thanks to David Cameron – and much to his disdain – that difference could be a Brexit.

Back in 2014, the Prime Minister pushed through electoral changes which meant that voters would have to individually register to be on the electoral register. Previously, it had been the responsibility of the “head of the household” to register everyone living at one address.

This has made it less likely that young people – the very demographic he needs to win the referendum and see out his full and final term as Prime Minister – will vote on June 23.

Young people are more likely to be support remaining in the EU, as polls have consistently shown. So in a tightly-run race, the Prime Minister has effectively stopped hordes of potential pro-EU voters from making their voices heard.

A Factmint chart of British Election Study attitudes showing young people really like the EU
British Election Study on attitudes to the EU, broken down by age Credit: British Election Study

The move from household to individual registration chucked hundreds of thousands of voters off the electoral register, and many have yet to register again.

The Government assured us at the time that their new online application system would make registering to vote easier, particularly for young people.

But the move has disproportionately affected students and young people living in rented accommodation who tend to move addresses more often. So despite the slick, youth-friendly online application, many young people who were registered previously will find themselves no longer able to vote.

For young people who do plan on voting, the risk is that they realise too late that they’re not registered (the deadline is 7 June - 16 days before the referendum).

We know that young people are more politically apathetic - one survey found that only 21 per cent of 18-to-24-year-olds said they are very interested in the referendum, compared with 47 per cent of those over 65.

Compare this to older generations, who are generally more Eurosceptic and wouldn’t miss voting if their life depended on it.

Along with Nicky Morgan and Jeremy Corbyn, David Cameron has set out to target young people, telling them that leaving the EU will hit them the hardest. Downing Street has even hooked up with dating app Tinder and the LadBible to get young people’s attention.

The case put to young people is obvious: more job prospects and the right to live and work in other EU countries. But mobilising young people to vote is one of politics’ biggest modern challenges. Engaging them in a debate – especially one as complex as the EU – is not an easy task.

But young people don’t need persuading: countless polls tell us that they are already on the side of the EU. The problem is getting them to transfer this into a vote. Kicking them off the electoral roll has created another barrier to stop this from happening.

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