Why is No One Running Against Kate Brown?

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Tuesday, September 01, 2015

Brendan Murray GoLocalPDX Contributor

With the primaries for the Oregon gubernatorial election just nine months away, Governor Kate Brown holds a comfortable lead based on one main factor: few opponents have announced a campaign.

So far, no Democrats have announced their interest in running for the state’s highest office in 2016, and only one Republican has stepped forward. That would be Bud Pierce, a medical doctor from Salem with no prior political campaign experience.

Sal Peralta, Secretary of the Oregon Independent Party, told GoLocal that challengers for Brown in next year’s special election would be few and far between.

“I think in two years, we are going to have a much different budget situation,” he said. “I think some people are holding their fire until then. They think that two years from now Governor Brown will have had to make some very difficult budget decisions, and she may be more vulnerable then.”

Brown assumed the office in February after former Governor John Kitzhaber announced his resignation amid scandal. Brown, at the time serving as Secretary of State, assumed his post on February 18.

No Friendly Fire

Peralta said he did not expect a fellow Democrat to challenge Gov. Brown in the primary.

“I don’t see a path for a Democrat to challenge her in the primaries,” he said. “She’s a fairly popular incumbent governor. For someone to challenge her, she would have had to do something terribly wrong.”

Ted Wheeler, a Democrat, has been floated as a possible opponent for Brown, but the Oregon State Treasurer seems to have his sights set on next year’s race for Mayor of Portland. He spoke at the Oregon Mayor’s Conference in July, but has declined to give an official statement regarding his candidacy.

Republicans Rest Up for Now

Peralta, of the newly recognized OIP, said that no matter which Republican wins next year’s primary and goes on to face Gov. Brown in the general election, they will face an uphill battle.

“Republicans haven’t won statewide office in decades,” Peralta said. “I think that has discouraged some of the leading candidates from running.”

Already, some Republicans rumored to be running for the office have decided not to throw their hat into the race. Just last week, Republican Rep. Knute Buehler put an end to speculation that he may run, saying in a statement that he realized, “I’m just not ready yet.”

Bill Currier, Chairman of the Oregon Republican Party, told GoLocal hat he expected more GOP candidates to step forward before next week’s deadline to file and officially announce a campaign on Sept. 10. He did not specify whom he expected to run.

He said the shortened timeline for this election cycle has had an impact on GOP candidates who may consider a bid for the Governor’s office.

“Usually, we like to meet with prospective candidates and speak to them about the possibility of running, whether their interested and if its feasible,” he said. “We haven’t really had the time to do so in this cycle.”

Despite that time crunch, Currier said the ORP plans to “fully support” all Republican candidates in both the primary elections, held on May 17, and the general election on November 8.

He also said the decisions not to run made by Rep. Buehler and Dennis Richardson, a candidate in the 2014 gubernatorial race, have more to do with their current situations then with the state’s political climate.

“With Knute [Buehler], he has a good position with his legislative seat and I don’t think he wants to give that up yet,” he said. “Dennis [Richardson] is looking for more time to round up resources.”

How can the GOP Unseat Brown?

Currier said that in order for a Republican to win the governor’s race for the first time in more than two decades, they will have to convince voters its time for a change in the Beaver State.

“We have to show the damaging effects of one party rule for the people of Oregon,” he said. “The economy, job creation, those things haven’t been there. Republicans think they have the answers to help solve those problems.”

He said that the party would also have to show that former Gov. Kitzhaber “should never have been elected.”

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Related Slideshow: Timeline of Kate Brown’s Life and Political Career

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