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The	
  Conservative	
  Government’s	
  
Proposed	
  Strike	
  Ballot	
  Thresholds:	
  
The	
  Challenge	
  to	
  the	
  Trade	
  Unions	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Salford	
  Business	
  School	
  	
  
Research	
  Working	
  Paper	
  	
  
August	
  2015	
  
	
  
	
  
Professor	
  Ralph	
  Darlington	
  	
  
Salford	
  Business	
  School,	
  University	
  of	
  Salford,	
  	
  
and	
  Dr	
  John	
  Dobson	
  	
  
Riga	
  International	
  College	
  of	
  Economics	
  and	
  Business	
  Administration	
  
	
  
Corresponding	
  author:	
  Professor	
  Ralph	
  Darlington,	
  Salford	
  Business	
  School,	
  University	
  of	
  
Salford,	
  Salford	
  M5	
  4WT;	
  r.r.darlington@salford.ac.uk;	
  0161-­‐295-­‐5456	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
Ralph	
   Darlington	
   is	
   Professor	
   of	
   Employment	
   Relations	
   at	
   the	
   University	
   of	
   Salford.	
   His	
  
research	
   is	
   concerned	
   with	
   the	
   dynamics	
   of	
   trade	
   union	
   organisation,	
   activity	
   and	
  
consciousness	
   in	
   Britain	
   and	
   internationally	
   within	
   both	
   contemporary	
   and	
   historical	
  
settings.	
  He	
  is	
  author	
  of	
  The	
  Dynamics	
  of	
  Workplace	
  Unionism	
  (Mansell,	
  1994)	
  and	
  Radical	
  
Unionism	
  (Haymarket,	
  2013);	
  co-­‐author	
  of	
  Glorious	
  Summer:	
  Class	
  Struggle	
  in	
  Britain,	
  1972,	
  
(Bookmarks,	
   2001);	
   and	
   editor	
   of	
   What’s	
   the	
   Point	
   of	
   Industrial	
   Relations?	
   In	
   Defence	
   of	
  
Critical	
  Social	
  Science	
  (BUIRA,	
  2009).	
  He	
  is	
  an	
  executive	
  member	
  of	
  the	
  British	
  Universities	
  
Industrial	
   Relations	
   Association	
   and	
   secretary	
   of	
   the	
   Manchester	
   Industrial	
   Relations	
  
Society.	
  
	
  
John	
   Dobson	
   has	
   published	
   widely	
   on	
   the	
   operation	
   of	
   labour	
   markets	
   in	
   Central	
   and	
  
Eastern	
   Europe	
   and	
   is	
   currently	
   Associated	
   Professor	
   at	
   Riga	
   International	
   College	
   of	
  
Economics	
   and	
   Business	
   Administration,	
   Latvia.	
   He	
   was	
   previously	
   a	
   senior	
   lecturer	
   in	
  
Industrial	
   Relations	
   at	
   the	
   University	
   of	
   Salford,	
   where	
   he	
   was	
   Head	
   of	
   the	
   School	
   of	
  
Management	
   (2002-­‐6)	
   and	
   President	
   of	
   the	
   Salford	
   Branch	
   of	
   the	
   University	
   and	
   College	
  
Union	
  (UCU)	
  from	
  2007-­‐9.	
  He	
  also	
  served	
  on	
  the	
  UCU	
  National	
  Executive	
  from	
  2009-­‐11.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
CONTENTS	
  
	
  
Abstract	
  and	
  Summary	
  of	
  Key	
  Findings	
  
Introduction	
  
Justification	
  and	
  motivation	
  
Illogical	
  implications	
  	
  
Competing	
  models	
  of	
  union	
  democracy	
  
Other	
  potential	
  factors	
  influencing	
  participation	
  rates	
  
Evidence	
  from	
  database	
  
Three	
  enabling	
  features	
  of	
  participation	
  
Union	
  responses	
  
References	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
1	
  
	
  
Abstract	
  and	
  Summary	
  of	
  Key	
  Findings	
  
Persistent	
   disruptive	
   bouts	
   of	
   strike	
   action	
   in	
   recent	
   years	
   by	
   teachers,	
   civil	
   servants,	
  
firefighters,	
  and	
  rail	
  and	
  London	
  Underground	
  workers	
  amongst	
  others,	
  sometimes	
  called	
  
with	
  only	
  a	
  small	
  proportion	
  of	
  union	
  members	
  voting	
  in	
  favour	
  of	
  strike	
  action,	
  has	
  provided	
  
the	
   backcloth	
   to	
   the	
   publication	
   on	
   15	
   July	
   of	
   a	
   Trade	
   Union	
   Bill	
   by	
   the	
   newly	
   elected	
  
majority	
  Conservative	
  government.	
  The	
  Bill	
  promises	
  (amongst	
  a	
  variety	
  of	
  other	
  measures)	
  
the	
   most	
   sweeping	
   and	
   radical	
   tightening	
   of	
   the	
   rules	
   on	
   industrial	
   action	
   seen	
   since	
   the	
  
Thatcher	
   era	
   of	
   the	
   1980s	
   with	
   a	
   minimum	
   50	
   per	
   cent	
   ballot	
   participation	
   threshold	
  
alongside	
  a	
  requirement	
  for	
  unions	
  in	
  ‘important	
  public	
  services’	
  to	
  obtain	
  a	
  minimum	
  40	
  per	
  
cent	
  majority	
  of	
  all	
  those	
  eligible	
  to	
  vote.	
  It	
  would	
  have	
  a	
  devastating	
  effect	
  on	
  many	
  unions’	
  
ability	
  to	
  take	
  lawful	
  industrial	
  action.	
  	
  
This	
  Salford	
  Business	
  School	
  Research	
  Paper	
  explores	
  the	
  following	
  research	
  questions:	
  
• To	
  what	
  extent	
  are	
  the	
  Conservatives	
  justified	
  in	
  pointing	
  to	
  a	
  ‘democratic	
  deficit’	
  in	
  
which	
   a	
   majority	
   of	
   indifferent	
   union	
   members	
   have	
   surrendered	
   control	
   over	
  
whether	
  to	
  strike	
  to	
  a	
  committed	
  minority?	
  	
  
• How	
  can	
  we	
  explain	
  strike	
  ballot	
  participation	
  rates?	
  Why	
  do	
  some	
  union	
  members	
  
not	
  vote?	
  	
  
• To	
  what	
  extent	
  does	
  the	
  secret	
  individual	
  postal	
  balloting	
  process	
  affect	
  the	
  level	
  of	
  
participation?	
  	
  
• What	
  other	
  factors	
  might	
  potentially	
  influence	
  whether	
  union	
  members	
  vote	
  or	
  not?	
  	
  
• How	
  are	
  the	
  unions	
  likely	
  to	
  fare	
  in	
  the	
  face	
  of	
  the	
  Conservative	
  government’s	
  two	
  
new	
  balloting	
  thresholds?	
  
To	
   answer	
   such	
   questions	
   the	
   paper	
   first	
   explores	
   the	
   justification	
   and	
   underlying	
  
motivation	
   for	
   the	
   introduction	
   of	
   new	
   tougher	
   strike	
   ballot	
   laws,	
   and	
   the	
   illogical	
  
implications	
  of	
  such	
  provisions	
  which	
  do	
  not	
  apply	
  to	
  any	
  other	
  ballots.	
  After	
  considering	
  
some	
   alternative	
   ways	
   to	
   potentially	
   increase	
   ballot	
   turnouts	
   advocated	
   by	
   the	
   TUC	
   and	
  
some	
  unions,	
  notably	
  online	
  voting,	
  the	
  paper	
  questions	
  whether	
  the	
  implementation	
  of	
  such	
  
an	
  essentially	
  technical	
  and	
  procedural	
  measure	
  would	
  increase	
  balloting	
  turn-­‐outs	
  to	
  meet	
  
the	
  Conservatives’	
  threshold	
  levels.	
  	
  
Drawing	
  on	
  a	
  range	
  of	
  existing	
  academic	
  and	
  practitioner	
  literature	
  over	
  a	
  number	
  of	
  
years,	
  it	
  compares	
  the	
  restrictive	
  parliamentary	
  model	
  of	
  democracy	
  underlying	
  the	
  secret	
  
individual	
   postal	
   balloting	
   process,	
   compared	
   with	
   a	
   participatory	
   model	
   of	
   democracy	
  
based	
  on	
  collective	
  decision	
  making	
  at	
  workplace	
  union	
  meetings.	
  	
  
It	
   proceeds	
   to	
   identify	
   the	
   multi-­‐dimensional	
   enabling/inhibiting	
   factors	
   for	
   strike	
  
ballot	
   participation,	
   including	
   both	
   general	
   factors	
   (economic/employment	
   restructuring,	
  
employment	
  legislation,	
  strike	
  defeats	
  and	
  ‘demonstration	
  effect’,	
  and	
  electoral	
  and	
  political	
  
disengagement	
  within	
  society	
  more	
  generally)	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  specific	
  factors	
  (size	
  and	
  nature	
  of	
  
unions,	
   nature	
   of	
   the	
   workforce,	
   management	
   structures	
   and	
   behaviour,	
   role	
   of	
   national	
  
trade	
  union	
  leadership,	
  and	
  health	
  of	
  workplace	
  union	
  organisation.	
  	
  
2	
  
	
  
In	
  order	
  to	
  examine	
  the	
  potential	
  effects	
  of	
  the	
  proposed	
  legislation,	
  the	
  paper	
  then	
  
retrospectively	
  applies	
  it	
  to	
  previously	
  held	
  ballots	
  by	
  analysing	
  a	
  database	
  the	
  authors	
  have	
  
compiled	
   of	
   162	
   industrial	
   action	
   ballots,	
   158	
   of	
   which	
   are	
   strike	
   ballots,	
   involving	
   28	
  
different	
  trade	
  unions	
  (including	
  BFAWU,	
  CWU,	
  FBU,	
  NUT,	
  RMT,	
  UCW,	
  Unison	
  and	
  Unite)	
  
over	
   the	
   period	
   1997-­‐2015.	
   Although	
   the	
   database	
   confirms	
   Electoral	
   Reform	
   Services	
  
statistics	
   which	
   show	
   unions	
   have	
   generally	
   been	
   overwhelmingly	
   successful	
   in	
   winning	
  
majority	
  ‘yes’	
  votes	
  in	
  favour	
  of	
  strike	
  action	
  under	
  the	
  existing	
  legislation,	
  it	
  also	
  provides	
  
evidence	
   to	
   suggest	
   they	
   have	
   often	
   failed	
   to	
   achieve	
   the	
   Tories’	
   proposed	
   50	
   per	
   cent	
  
participation	
  threshold:	
  
• Only	
  85	
  of	
  the	
  158	
  strike	
  ballots	
  covered	
  by	
  the	
  database	
  reached	
  the	
  50	
  per	
  cent	
  
target,	
  and	
  the	
  number	
  of	
  workers	
  who	
  failed	
  to	
  reach	
  the	
  target	
  was	
  completely	
  
disproportionate	
  to	
  those	
  that	
  did	
  –	
  while	
  444,000	
  workers	
  could	
  have	
  taken	
  strike	
  
action	
  because	
  they	
  had	
  a	
  turnout	
  rate	
  of	
  over	
  50	
  per	
  cent,	
  3.3	
  million	
  workers	
  would	
  
have	
  been	
  prevented	
  from	
  going	
  on	
  strike.	
  Even	
  if	
  you	
  take	
  out	
  the	
  large-­‐scale	
  2011	
  
public	
   sector	
   strikes,	
   it	
   still	
   means	
   880,000	
   workers	
   would,	
   under	
   the	
   proposed	
  
legislation,	
  no	
  longer	
  have	
  been	
  able	
  to	
  go	
  on	
  strike.	
  	
  
As	
  a	
  result	
  some	
  major	
  national	
  strikes	
  would	
  have	
  been	
  deprived	
  of	
  legal	
  protection	
  
under	
  the	
  proposed	
  legislation,	
  especially	
  those	
  relating	
  to	
  national	
  bargaining	
  in	
  the	
  public	
  
sector.	
  
Even	
  when	
  unions	
  have	
  succeeded	
  in	
  reaching	
  the	
  50	
  per	
  cent	
  turnout,	
  some	
  would	
  
still	
  fail	
  to	
  obtain	
  the	
  40	
  per	
  cent	
  majority	
  threshold	
  of	
  those	
  eligible	
  to	
  vote,	
  although	
  these	
  
would	
   not	
   necessarily	
   be	
   affected	
   by	
   the	
   proposed	
   legislation	
   which	
   only	
   applies	
   to	
   the	
  
specified	
  ‘important	
  public	
  services’.	
  	
  
• Out	
  of	
  90	
  strike	
  ballots	
  in	
  the	
  ‘important	
  public	
  services’	
  covered	
  by	
  the	
  database,	
  55	
  
of	
  them	
  produced	
  turnouts	
  in	
  which	
  more	
  than	
  40	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  the	
  electorate	
  voted	
  
‘yes’,	
  such	
  that	
  the	
  proposed	
  legislation	
  would	
  have	
  reduced	
  the	
  number	
  of	
  strikes	
  in	
  
these	
  areas	
  by	
  nearly	
  40	
  per	
  cent.	
  	
  
However	
  there	
  are	
  important	
  differences	
  by	
  sector:	
  
• The	
  proposed	
  legislation	
  would	
  have	
  had	
  no	
  effect	
  on	
  the	
  Fire	
  Service	
  because	
  all	
  11	
  
strike	
   ballots	
   cleared	
   the	
   40	
   per	
   cent	
   threshold	
   with	
   an	
   average	
   of	
   54	
   per	
   cent	
   of	
  
balloted	
  workers	
  supporting	
  strike	
  action.	
  
	
  
• The	
  picture	
  is	
  completely	
  different	
  in	
  Health	
  where	
  only	
  2	
  of	
  the	
  5	
  national	
  strikes	
  
would	
  have	
  cleared	
  the	
  40	
  per	
  cent	
  threshold.	
  Of	
  those	
  that	
  failed	
  to	
  meet	
  the	
  40	
  per	
  
cent,	
  only	
  20	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  eligible	
  voters	
  supported	
  the	
  action.	
  It	
  is	
  the	
  small	
  specialist	
  
unions	
  that	
  achieved	
  the	
  highest	
  turnout	
  and	
  high	
  support	
  for	
  strike	
  action.	
  
	
  
• The	
  picture	
  in	
  education	
  is	
  more	
  nuanced;	
  only	
  19	
  of	
  the	
  29	
  strike	
  ballots	
  would	
  have	
  
been	
  able	
  to	
  go	
  ahead,	
  but	
  while	
  every	
  ballot	
  conducted	
  in	
  an	
  individual	
  school	
  would	
  
have	
  passed	
  the	
  40	
  per	
  cent	
  threshold,	
  only	
  two	
  national	
  strikes	
  did	
  so	
  and	
  neither	
  of	
  
these	
  involved	
  the	
  main	
  teaching	
  unions.	
  
	
  
3	
  
	
  
• In	
   transport,	
   only	
   23	
   of	
   the	
   44	
   strikes	
   cleared	
   the	
   40	
   per	
   cent	
   threshold,	
   so	
   the	
  
proposed	
  legislation	
  would	
  have	
  prevented	
  half	
  of	
  transport	
  strikes.	
  However,	
  again	
  
there	
  was	
  variation,	
  for	
  example,	
  while	
  the	
  BA	
  cabin	
  crew	
  ballots	
  easily	
  cleared	
  the	
  
40	
  per	
  cent	
  hurdle,	
  a	
  recent	
  Greater	
  London	
  bus	
  workers	
  ballot	
  would	
  not,	
  and	
  while	
  
the	
  proposed	
  legislation	
  would	
  have	
  little	
  effect	
  on	
  strike	
  ballots	
  in	
  the	
  railway	
  sector	
  
it	
  would	
  have	
  prevented	
  most	
  strikes	
  on	
  London	
  Underground.	
  
	
  
• The	
   one	
   strike	
   ballot	
   that	
   could	
   be	
   regarded	
   as	
   border	
   security	
   would	
   have	
   been	
  
prevented	
  by	
  the	
  new	
  legislation.	
  	
  
On	
   the	
   basis	
   of	
   the	
   database	
   evidence	
   available,	
   while	
   the	
   50	
   per	
   cent	
   threshold	
  
would	
  dramatically	
  reduce	
  the	
  number	
  of	
  legally	
  protected	
  strikes,	
  the	
  introduction	
  of	
  an	
  
additional	
   40	
   per	
   cent	
   threshold	
   for	
   the	
   ‘important	
   public	
   services’	
   would	
   have	
   very	
   little	
  
further	
  effect.	
  Nonetheless,	
  overall	
  many	
  unions	
  will	
  find	
  the	
  legislation	
  will	
  make	
  it	
  very	
  
difficult	
  for	
  them	
  to	
  mount	
  officially	
  sanctioned	
  strikes	
  as	
  a	
  means	
  of	
  challenging	
  employers	
  
in	
   national	
   negotiations	
   and	
   in	
   response	
   to	
   government-­‐initiated	
   austerity	
   measures,	
  
especially	
  those	
  relating	
  to	
  national	
  bargaining	
  in	
  the	
  public	
  sector.	
  	
  
The	
   paper	
   identifies	
   some	
   important	
   contributory	
   factors	
   to	
   more	
   positive	
   voting	
  
participation	
  rates:	
  
• There	
  is	
  a	
  clear	
  overall	
  tendency	
  for	
  workplace,	
  area	
  or	
  single	
  employer	
  ballots	
  to	
  
obtain	
  ‘higher’	
  turnouts	
  and	
  national	
  ballots	
  to	
  obtain	
  ‘lower’	
  turnouts.	
  
	
  
• Unions	
  with	
  members	
  who	
  have	
  close	
  occupational	
  identities	
  and	
  solidaristic	
  loyalties	
  
also	
   appear	
   to	
   often	
   be	
   able	
   to	
   generate	
   relatively	
   higher	
   strike	
   ballot	
   votes	
   than	
  
more	
  general	
  unions.	
  
	
  
• There	
  is	
  evidence	
  the	
  role	
  of	
  union	
  leadership	
  -­‐	
  specifically	
  the	
  influence	
  of	
  left-­‐wing	
  
leadership	
  -­‐	
  can	
  also	
  be	
  a	
  positive	
  enabling	
  factor.	
  
The	
   paper	
   concludes	
   by	
   reflecting	
   on	
   the	
   unions’	
   potential	
   response	
   to	
   the	
  
forthcoming	
  new	
  legislation,	
  including	
  official	
  union	
  opposition,	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  more	
  strategic	
  
balloting	
  of	
  selective	
  groups	
  of	
  workers	
  confident	
  of	
  achieving	
  the	
  thresholds,	
  	
  ‘leverage’	
  and	
  
‘citizen	
  bargaining’,	
  and	
  unofficial	
  and	
  ‘wildcat’	
  strike	
  action.	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
4	
  
	
  
The	
  Conservative	
  Government’s	
  Proposed	
  Strike	
  Ballot	
  Thresholds:	
  
The	
  Challenge	
  to	
  the	
  Trade	
  Unions	
  
	
  
Introduction	
  
Even	
  though	
  strike	
  levels	
  in	
  the	
  UK	
  have	
  fallen	
  to	
  their	
  lowest	
  ever	
  historical	
  levels,	
  the	
  far	
  
reaching	
  effects	
  of	
  persistent	
  bouts	
  of	
  strike	
  action	
  in	
  recent	
  years	
  (notably	
  within	
  the	
  public	
  
sector),	
   sometimes	
   called	
   with	
   only	
   a	
   small	
   proportion	
   of	
   union	
   members	
   voting,	
   has	
  
provided	
   the	
   backcloth	
   to	
   the	
   publication	
   on	
   15	
   July	
   of	
   a	
   Trade	
   Union	
   Bill	
   by	
   the	
   newly	
  
elected	
  majority	
  Conservative	
  government.	
  National	
  strikes	
  by	
  teachers,	
  civil	
  servants,	
  and	
  
firefighters,	
  a	
  threatened	
  national	
  strike	
  on	
  Network	
  Rail,	
  and	
  the	
  complete	
  shutdown	
  of	
  the	
  
London	
   Underground	
   network	
   by	
   four	
   unions	
   engaging	
   in	
   24-­‐hour	
   strike	
   action,	
   have	
   all	
  
served	
   to	
   illustrate	
   the	
   potential	
   disruptive	
   impact	
   of	
   strike	
   action	
   on	
   the	
   wider	
   public.	
  
Hence	
  the	
  government’s	
  attempt	
  to	
  rush	
  into	
  law	
  the	
  most	
  sweeping	
  and	
  radical	
  tightening	
  
of	
  the	
  rules	
  on	
  industrial	
  action	
  seen	
  since	
  the	
  Thatcher	
  era	
  of	
  the	
  1980s	
  with	
  new	
  voting	
  
thresholds	
  in	
  trade	
  union	
  strike	
  ballots,1
	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  a	
  variety	
  of	
  other	
  restrictive	
  measures	
  
beyond	
   the	
   remit	
   of	
   this	
   paper.2
	
   The	
   legislation	
   proposes	
   enormous	
   obstacles	
   to	
   unions’	
  
ability	
   to	
   strike	
   and	
   may	
   produce	
   the	
   biggest	
   showdown	
   over	
   industrial	
   relations	
   for	
   a	
  
generation.	
  	
  
Between	
   1980	
   and	
   1993,	
   a	
   series	
   of	
   Conservative	
   laws	
   made	
   it	
   more	
   difficult	
   for	
  
unions	
   to	
   take	
   strike	
   action	
   and	
   remain	
   within	
   the	
   law,	
   with	
   specific	
   measures	
   requiring	
  
unions	
  to	
  organise	
  secret	
  postal	
  ballots	
  in	
  respect	
  of	
  industrial	
  action	
  contained	
  within	
  the	
  
Trade	
   Union	
   Act	
   (1984),	
   Employment	
   Act	
   (1988)	
   and	
   associated	
   regulations	
   and	
   Code	
   of	
  
Practice	
  (Undy	
  and	
  Martin,	
  1984),	
  which	
  the	
  New	
  Labour	
  governments	
  during	
  1997-­‐2010	
  
and	
  the	
  Conservative/Liberal	
  Democrat	
  coalition	
  government	
  of	
  2010-­‐15	
  left	
  on	
  the	
  statue	
  
book.	
   As	
   a	
   result	
   of	
   such	
   changes,	
   the	
   UK	
   laws	
   on	
   industrial	
   action	
   ballots	
   are	
   widely	
  
regarded	
  as	
  some	
  of	
  the	
  strictest	
  in	
  Europe;	
  even	
  though	
  making	
  comparisons	
  with	
  other	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
1
	
  While	
  strictly	
  speaking	
  the	
  legislation	
  proposed	
  refers	
  to	
  ‘industrial	
  action’	
  and	
  thereby	
  embraces	
  both	
  strikes	
  
as	
   well	
   as	
   action	
   short	
   of	
   a	
   strike,	
   this	
   paper	
   will	
   concentrate	
   attention	
   and	
   refer	
   from	
   here	
   on	
   to	
   ‘strike	
  
ballots’.	
  
2
	
  This	
  paper	
  concentrates	
  purely	
  on	
  the	
  strike	
  balloting	
  thresholds,	
  but	
  amongst	
  other	
  measures	
  included	
  are:	
  
the	
  removal	
  of	
  the	
  ban	
  (in	
  place	
  since	
  1973)	
  on	
  using	
  agency	
  workers	
  to	
  cover	
  for	
  striking	
  workers;	
  a	
  new	
  
requirement	
  for	
  14	
  days’	
  notice	
  (instead	
  of	
  the	
  current	
  7	
  days)	
  of	
  planned	
  strike	
  dates;	
  a	
  time	
  limit	
  of	
  4	
  months	
  
after	
  the	
  date	
  of	
  each	
  ballot	
  to	
  prevent	
  unions	
  undertaking	
  action	
  based	
  on	
  historic	
  strike	
  ballots	
  and	
  to	
  make	
  
it	
  harder	
  to	
  engage	
  in	
  rolling	
  strike	
  action;	
  making	
  it	
  an	
  offence	
  for	
  trade	
  unions	
  not	
  to	
  supervise	
  picketing	
  
arrangements,	
  with	
  a	
  named	
  individual	
  required	
  to	
  be	
  available	
  to	
  ensure	
  union	
  members	
  comply	
  with	
  an	
  
existing	
   Code	
   of	
   Practice	
   that	
   sets	
   a	
   maximum	
   number	
   of	
   only	
   six	
   pickets	
   and	
   requires	
   only	
   peaceful	
  
persuasion	
   (rather	
   than	
   ‘intimidation’)	
   of	
   others	
   not	
   to	
   work;	
   moves	
   to	
   force	
   unions	
   to	
   make	
   members’	
  
contributions	
   to	
   their	
   political	
   fund	
   an	
   ‘opt-­‐in’	
   arrangement	
   (rather	
   than	
   as	
   currently	
   ‘opt-­‐out’),	
   to	
   be	
  
confirmed	
  every	
  5	
  years,	
  in	
  an	
  effort	
  to	
  reduce	
  the	
  ability	
  of	
  trade	
  unions	
  to	
  donate	
  money	
  to	
  the	
  Labour	
  Party	
  
or	
  any	
  other	
  party,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  a	
  wide	
  range	
  of	
  other	
  non-­‐party	
  political	
  activities;	
  regulations	
  requiring	
  public	
  
authorities	
   to	
   publish	
   detailed	
   information	
   on	
   union	
   reps	
   employed	
   by	
   them	
   who	
   have	
   to	
   time-­‐off	
   work	
  
(‘facility	
  time’)	
  to	
  carry	
  out	
  union	
  duties	
  and	
  activities,	
  in	
  a	
  bid	
  to	
  encourage	
  employers	
  to	
  set	
  a	
  limit	
  on	
  the	
  
proportion	
  of	
  working	
  time	
  taken	
  and	
  the	
  total	
  amount	
  of	
  money	
  spent	
  on	
  such	
  facility	
  time;	
  measures	
  to	
  
increase	
   the	
   remit	
   and	
   powers	
   of	
   the	
   Certification	
   Officer	
   to	
   investigate	
   alleged	
   breaches	
   of	
   statutory	
  
provisions	
  and	
  to	
  impose	
  financial	
  penalties	
  on	
  trade	
  unions.	
  
5	
  
	
  
countries	
  is	
  not	
  straightforward,	
  in	
  some	
  countries	
  unions	
  are	
  not	
  required	
  to	
  hold	
  a	
  ballot	
  
to	
  call	
  industrial	
  action,	
  and	
  of	
  those	
  that	
  do,	
  few	
  specify	
  a	
  turnout	
  threshold;	
  most	
  require	
  
a	
  simple	
  majority	
  to	
  back	
  action.	
  
The	
  new	
  Conservative	
  majority	
  government’s	
  proposed	
  legislation	
  aimed	
  at	
  further	
  
tightening	
   up	
   such	
   balloting	
   regulations	
   contains	
   two	
   aspects	
   with	
   respect	
   to	
   strike	
  
mandates.	
  First,	
  all	
  unions	
  will	
  have	
  to	
  persuade	
  a	
  minimum	
  of	
  50	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  their	
  members	
  
eligible	
   to	
   vote	
   to	
   participate	
   in	
   any	
   strike	
   ballot	
   in	
   order	
   for	
   it	
   to	
   be	
   lawful	
   (currently	
  
balloting	
  rules	
  do	
  not	
  require	
  any	
  specific	
  level	
  of	
  participation	
  by	
  union	
  members).	
  Thus	
  in	
  
a	
  strike	
  ballot	
  of	
  1,000	
  eligible	
  union	
  members	
  at	
  least	
  500	
  would	
  have	
  to	
  participate;	
  a	
  
participation	
   rate	
   of	
   499	
   members	
   would	
   be	
   invalid	
   on	
   the	
   basis	
   of	
   being	
   less	
   than	
   the	
  
required	
  50	
  per	
  cent	
  threshold.	
  The	
  PCS	
  civil	
  servants’	
  union,	
  which	
  frequently	
  calls	
  strikes	
  
amongst	
   its	
   members,	
   has	
   never	
   achieved	
   a	
   50	
   per	
   cent	
   turnout	
   on	
   a	
   national	
   ballot	
   in	
  
recent	
  years;	
  neither	
  on	
  a	
  national	
  ballot	
  has	
  the	
  NUT	
  teachers’	
  union.	
  
Secondly,	
   in	
   six	
   specified	
   so-­‐called	
   ‘important	
   public	
   services’	
   –	
   health	
   services,	
  
education	
   of	
   those	
   aged	
   under	
   17,	
   fire	
   services,	
   transport	
   services,	
   border	
   security,	
   and	
  
nuclear	
  decommissioning	
  including	
  the	
  management	
  of	
  radioactive	
  waste	
  and	
  spent	
  fuel	
  –	
  
an	
  additional	
  threshold	
  will	
  have	
  to	
  be	
  met.	
  As	
  well	
  as	
  obtaining	
  the	
  50	
  per	
  cent	
  minimum	
  
turnout,	
  at	
  least	
  40	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  those	
  eligible	
  to	
  vote	
  must	
  support	
  strike	
  action	
  for	
  it	
  to	
  be	
  
lawful	
  (ballots	
  currently	
  require	
  a	
  simple	
  majority	
  to	
  back	
  action).3
	
  Thus	
  in	
  a	
  strike	
  ballot	
  of	
  
1,000	
  eligible	
  union	
  members	
  (embracing	
  such	
  workers	
  as	
  firefighters,	
  nurses,	
  teachers,	
  or	
  
railways	
  and	
  tube	
  workers)	
  at	
  least	
  400	
  would	
  have	
  to	
  back	
  strike	
  action.	
  A	
  vote	
  by	
  399	
  
members	
  in	
  favour	
  of	
  strike	
  action	
  and	
  no	
  votes	
  against	
  (in	
  other	
  words,	
  a	
  100	
  per	
  cent	
  
majority	
  of	
  those	
  who	
  voted)	
  would	
  be	
  regarded	
  as	
  invalid	
  on	
  the	
  basis	
  of	
  being	
  less	
  than	
  
the	
  required	
  40	
  per	
  cent	
  majority	
  threshold.	
  As	
  TUC	
  general	
  secretary	
  Frances	
  O’Grady	
  has	
  
claimed:	
  ‘The	
  Conservative	
  Party	
  is	
  not	
  just	
  proposing	
  a	
  few	
  more	
  bureaucratic	
  obstacles	
  
that	
  will	
  make	
  life	
  a	
  bit	
  more	
  difficult	
  for	
  trade	
  unions...	
  they	
  would	
  effectively	
  ban	
  strikes	
  by	
  
the	
  back	
  door….[introducing	
  a]	
  threshold	
  no	
  other	
  ballot	
  in	
  Britain	
  is	
  required	
  to	
  meet	
  and	
  
that	
  many	
  would	
  fail….effectively	
  end[ing]	
  the	
  right	
  to	
  strike	
  in	
  the	
  public	
  sector’	
  (BBC	
  News,	
  
7	
  September,	
  2014).	
  
The	
  clamour	
  to	
  introduce	
  higher	
  strike	
  ballot	
  thresholds	
  gathered	
  pace	
  in	
  June	
  2010	
  
with	
  a	
  Confederation	
  of	
  British	
  Industry	
  report	
  entitled	
  Making	
  Britain	
  the	
  Place	
  to	
  Work	
  
(CBI,	
  2010)	
  which	
  aimed	
  to	
  set	
  the	
  agenda	
  for	
  the	
  new	
  coalition	
  government’s	
  labour	
  policy.	
  
The	
  CBI	
  argued	
  that	
  the	
  individual	
  and	
  collective	
  rights	
  introduced	
  under	
  New	
  Labour	
  had	
  
made	
  the	
  British	
  economy	
  uncompetitive	
  in	
  a	
  changed	
  global	
  economy.	
  Alongside	
  a	
  raft	
  of	
  
measures	
  to	
  roll	
  back	
  the	
  new	
  employment	
  rights,	
  the	
  CBI	
  proposed	
  the	
  introduction	
  of	
  new	
  
requirements	
  for	
  a	
  minimum	
  threshold	
  of	
  40	
  per	
  cent	
  support	
  among	
  members	
  for	
  strike	
  
action.	
   The	
   right-­‐wing	
   press	
   (in	
   particular	
   the	
   Express	
   and	
   Times	
   in	
   their	
   editorials)	
  
enthusiastically	
  took	
  up	
  the	
  campaign.	
  Mayor	
  of	
  London,	
  Boris	
  Johnson,	
  following	
  clashes	
  
with	
  the	
  RMT	
  union	
  over	
  a	
  London	
  Underground	
  strike	
  organised	
  on	
  the	
  basis	
  of	
  a	
  relatively	
  
low	
  ballot	
  turnout,	
  took	
  the	
  CBI	
  proposals	
  to	
  the	
  Conservative	
  Party	
  conference,	
  focusing	
  in	
  
particular	
  on	
  the	
  restriction	
  on	
  the	
  right	
  to	
  strike	
  which	
  he	
  argued	
  was	
  needed	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  
avoid	
  disruption	
  to	
  the	
  Olympic	
  Games	
  in	
  2012	
  (Daily	
  Telegraph,	
  4	
  October	
  2010).	
  Similar	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
3
	
   This	
   is	
   the	
   same	
   threshold	
   that	
   applies	
   in	
   ballots	
   for	
   union	
   recognition	
   under	
   the	
   statutory	
   recognition	
  
procedure).	
  
6	
  
	
  
arguments	
   were	
   marshalled	
   in	
   a	
   Policy	
   Exchange	
   think-­‐tank	
   report	
   (2010)	
   and	
   Greater	
  
London	
  Authority	
  Conservatives	
  Report	
  on	
  the	
  London	
  Underground	
  (Tracey,	
  2013).	
  
The	
   ‘democratic	
   legitimacy’	
   of	
   strike	
   mandates	
   and	
   the	
   debate	
   about	
   minimum	
  
turnouts	
   in	
   union	
   ballots	
   was	
   subsequently	
   brought	
   into	
   sharp	
   relief	
   following	
   alleged	
  
derisory	
  voting	
  levels	
  in	
  ballots	
  by	
  a	
  number	
  of	
  other	
  public	
  sector	
  workers.	
  For	
  example,	
  
when	
  PCS	
  threatened	
  strike	
  action	
  over	
  cuts	
  to	
  jobs	
  and	
  a	
  pay	
  freeze	
  by	
  border	
  agency	
  and	
  
passport	
  guards	
  on	
  the	
  eve	
  of	
  the	
  2012	
  Olympics	
  on	
  the	
  basis	
  of	
  a	
  20	
  per	
  cent	
  ballot	
  turnout	
  
of	
   members	
   (on	
   a	
   57.2	
   per	
   cent	
   vote	
   in	
   favour),	
   Dominic	
   Raab,	
   Conservative	
   MP,	
   said:	
  
‘These	
   reckless	
   and	
   damaging	
   strikes	
   strengthen	
   the	
   case	
   for	
   a	
   voting	
   threshold,	
   so	
   the	
  
militant	
  minority	
  can’t	
  hold	
  the	
  hardworking	
  majority	
  to	
  ransom.	
  It	
  can’t	
  be	
  right	
  that	
  union	
  
bosses	
  can	
  paralyse	
  vital	
  infrastructure	
  and	
  humiliate	
  the	
  nation	
  on	
  a	
  malicious	
  whim,	
  when	
  
just	
  11	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  their	
  members	
  support	
  strike	
  action’	
  (Daily	
  Telegraph,	
  19	
  July	
  2012).	
  	
  
With	
  such	
  considerations	
  in	
  mind,	
  this	
  paper	
  seeks	
  to	
  explore	
  the	
  following	
  research	
  
questions:	
  
• To	
  what	
  extent	
  are	
  the	
  Conservatives	
  justified	
  in	
  pointing	
  to	
  a	
  ‘democratic	
  deficit’	
  in	
  
which	
   a	
   majority	
   of	
   indifferent	
   union	
   members	
   have	
   surrendered	
   control	
   over	
  
whether	
  to	
  strike	
  to	
  a	
  committed	
  minority?	
  	
  
• How	
  can	
  we	
  explain	
  strike	
  ballot	
  participation	
  rates?	
  Why	
  do	
  some	
  union	
  members	
  
not	
  vote?	
  	
  
• To	
  what	
  extent	
  does	
  the	
  secret	
  individual	
  postal	
  balloting	
  process	
  affect	
  the	
  level	
  of	
  
participation?	
  	
  
• What	
  other	
  factors	
  might	
  potentially	
  influence	
  whether	
  union	
  members	
  vote	
  or	
  not?	
  	
  
• How	
  are	
  the	
  unions	
  likely	
  to	
  fare	
  in	
  the	
  face	
  of	
  the	
  Conservative	
  government’s	
  two	
  
new	
  balloting	
  thresholds?	
  
To	
  answer	
  such	
  questions	
  the	
  paper	
  first	
  explores	
  the	
  justification	
  and	
  underlying	
  
motivation	
   for	
   the	
   introduction	
   of	
   new	
   tougher	
   strike	
   ballot	
   laws,	
   and	
   the	
   illogical	
  
implications	
  of	
  such	
  provisions	
  which	
  do	
  not	
  apply	
  to	
  any	
  other	
  ballots.	
  After	
  considering	
  
some	
   alternative	
   ways	
   to	
   potentially	
   increase	
   ballot	
   turnouts	
   advocated	
   by	
   the	
   TUC	
   and	
  
some	
   unions,	
   notably	
   online	
   voting,	
   the	
   paper	
   questions	
   whether	
   the	
   implementation	
   of	
  
such	
  an	
  essentially	
  technical	
  and	
  procedural	
  measure	
  would	
  increase	
  balloting	
  turn-­‐outs	
  to	
  
meet	
   the	
   Conservatives’	
   threshold	
   levels.	
   Drawing	
   on	
   a	
   range	
   of	
   existing	
   academic	
   and	
  
practitioner	
  literature	
  over	
  a	
  number	
  of	
  years	
  (including	
  Fairbrother,	
  1984;	
  Fredman,	
  1992;	
  
Martin	
   et	
   al,	
   1991;	
   1995;	
   Simpson,	
   2002;	
   Undy	
   and	
   Martin,	
   1984;	
   Undy	
   et	
   al,	
   1996),	
   it	
  
compares	
  the	
  restrictive	
  parliamentary	
  model	
  of	
  democracy	
  underlying	
  the	
  secret	
  individual	
  
postal	
   balloting	
   process,	
   compared	
   with	
   a	
   participatory	
   model	
   of	
   democracy	
   based	
   on	
  
collective	
  decision	
  making	
  at	
  workplace	
  union	
  meetings.	
  	
  
It	
   proceeds	
   to	
   identify	
   the	
   multi-­‐dimensional	
   enabling/inhibiting	
   factors	
   for	
   strike	
  
ballot	
   participation,	
   including	
   both	
   general	
   factors	
   (economic/employment	
   restructuring,	
  
employment	
   legislation,	
   strike	
   defeats	
   and	
   ‘demonstration	
   effect’,	
   and	
   electoral	
   and	
  
political	
  disengagement	
  within	
  society	
  more	
  generally)	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  specific	
  factors	
  (size	
  and	
  
7	
  
	
  
nature	
  of	
  unions,	
  nature	
  of	
  the	
  workforce,	
  management	
  structures	
  and	
  behaviour,	
  role	
  of	
  
national	
  trade	
  union	
  leadership,	
  and	
  health	
  of	
  workplace	
  union	
  organisation.	
  	
  
In	
  order	
  to	
  examine	
  the	
  potential	
  effects	
  of	
  the	
  proposed	
  legislation,	
  the	
  paper	
  then	
  
retrospectively	
  applies	
  it	
  to	
  previously	
  held	
  ballots	
  by	
  analysing	
  a	
  database	
  the	
  authors	
  have	
  
compiled	
   of	
   162	
   industrial	
   action	
   ballots,	
   158	
   of	
   which	
   are	
   strike	
   ballots,	
   involving	
   28	
  
different	
  trade	
  unions	
  (including	
  BFAWU,	
  CWU,	
  FBU,	
  NUT,	
  RMT,	
  UCW,	
  Unison	
  and	
  Unite)	
  
over	
   the	
   period	
   1997-­‐2015.	
   Although	
   our	
   database	
   confirms	
   Electoral	
   Reform	
   Services	
  
statistics	
   which	
   show	
   unions	
   have	
   generally	
   been	
   overwhelmingly	
   successful	
   in	
   winning	
  
majority	
  ‘yes’	
  votes	
  in	
  favour	
  of	
  strike	
  action	
  under	
  the	
  existing	
  legislation,	
  it	
  also	
  provides	
  
evidence	
   to	
   suggest	
   they	
   have	
   often	
   failed	
   to	
   achieve	
   the	
   Tories’	
   proposed	
   50	
   per	
   cent	
  
participation	
  threshold,	
  and	
  that	
  even	
  when	
  they	
  have	
  done	
  so,	
  some	
  unions	
  have	
  still	
  failed	
  
to	
   obtain	
   the	
   40	
   per	
   cent	
   majority	
   threshold	
   of	
   those	
   eligible	
   to	
   vote,	
   albeit	
   there	
   are	
  
significant	
  variations	
  across	
  different	
  sectors,	
  unions	
  and	
  ballots.	
  While	
  the	
  introduction	
  of	
  
an	
   additional	
   40	
   per	
   cent	
   threshold	
   for	
   the	
   ‘important	
   public	
   services’	
   would	
   have	
   little	
  
further	
  effect,	
  many	
  unions	
  will	
  clearly	
  find	
  the	
  legislation	
  will	
  make	
  it	
  very	
  difficult	
  for	
  them	
  
to	
   mount	
   officially	
   sanctioned	
   strikes	
   as	
   a	
   means	
   of	
   challenging	
   employers	
   in	
   national	
  
collective	
  bargaining	
  negotiations	
  and	
  government-­‐initiated	
  austerity	
  measures.	
  The	
  paper	
  
identifies	
  some	
  important	
  contributory	
  factors	
  to	
  more	
  positive	
  voting	
  figures,	
  including	
  the	
  
size	
   and	
   location	
   of	
   the	
   numbers	
   of	
   workers	
   being	
   balloted	
   (local	
   v	
   national);	
   degree	
   of	
  
occupational	
   identity	
   and	
   solidaristic	
   loyalty;	
   and	
   the	
   link	
   between	
   left-­‐wing	
   union	
  
leadership,	
   collective	
   mobilisation	
   and	
   strike	
   ballot	
   participation	
   rates.	
   It	
   concludes	
   by	
  
reflecting	
  on	
  the	
  unions’	
  potential	
  response	
  to	
  the	
  forthcoming	
  new	
  legislation.	
  
	
  
Justification	
  and	
  motivation	
  
Not	
  surprisingly	
  many	
  business	
  leaders	
  have	
  welcomed	
  the	
  prospect	
  of	
  another	
  round	
  of	
  
legislation	
  on	
  strike	
  action	
  with	
  its	
  introduction	
  of	
  ballot	
  participation	
  thresholds,	
  concurring	
  
with	
   the	
   Conservatives	
   that	
   it	
   would	
   stop	
   strike	
   action	
   on	
   the	
   basis	
   of	
   ballots	
   that	
   only	
  
involve	
  a	
  minority	
  of	
  members,	
  thereby	
  increasing	
  the	
  democratic	
  legitimacy	
  of	
  action	
  taken	
  
by	
   unions.	
   As	
   the	
   new	
   Conservative	
   government’s	
   Business	
   Secretary,	
   Sajid	
   Javid,	
   has	
  
claimed:	
  ‘We’ve	
  seen…in	
  the	
  last	
  five	
  years,	
  strike	
  action	
  that	
  took	
  place	
  where	
  perhaps	
  only	
  
10	
  per	
  cent	
  to	
  15	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  the	
  members	
  of	
  that	
  profession	
  actually	
  voted	
  for	
  it,	
  and	
  that’s	
  
not	
  right,	
  it’s	
  unfair’	
  (BBC	
  News,	
  12	
  May	
  2015).	
  It	
  has	
  been	
  claimed	
  that	
  of	
  the	
  119	
  major	
  
ballots	
  for	
  industrial	
  action	
  between	
  August	
  2010	
  and	
  December	
  2014,	
  nearly	
  three	
  quarters	
  
would	
  have	
  been	
  invalid	
  under	
  the	
  proposed	
  rules,	
  with	
  strikes	
  in	
  some	
  cases	
  going	
  ahead	
  
with	
  the	
  support	
  of	
  as	
  few	
  as	
  one	
  in	
  10	
  workers	
  (Daily	
  Mail,	
  12	
  May	
  2015).4
	
  
In	
  addition,	
  business	
  leaders	
  have	
  welcomed	
  the	
  Conservative’s	
  plans	
  to	
  introduce	
  a	
  
second	
  majority	
  vote	
  threshold	
  in	
  ‘important’	
  public	
  services,	
  on	
  the	
  basis	
  that	
  strike	
  action	
  
in	
  these	
  areas	
  can	
  have	
  far-­‐reaching	
  adverse	
  effects	
  on	
  a	
  wide	
  range	
  of	
  third	
  parties	
  who	
  
have	
  no	
  association	
  with	
  the	
  dispute,	
  with	
  a	
  strike	
  in	
  health	
  impacting	
  on	
  patients,	
  a	
  strike	
  
in	
   teaching	
   affecting	
   parents	
   and	
   a	
   transport	
   strike	
   affecting	
   commuters	
   and	
   businesses	
  
(DBIS,	
   2015a).	
   Thus	
   while	
   Simon	
   Walker,	
   director-­‐general	
   of	
   the	
   Institute	
   of	
   Directors,	
  
acknowledges	
  the	
  right	
  to	
  strike	
  is	
  a	
  ‘fundamental	
  part	
  of	
  our	
  democracy’,	
  has	
  argued	
  ‘that	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
4
	
  It	
  should	
  be	
  noted	
  the	
  source	
  of	
  these	
  figures	
  is	
  unstated	
  and	
  is	
  unknown	
  to	
  the	
  authors.	
  
8	
  
	
  
does	
  not	
  mean	
  public	
  sector	
  unions	
  should	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  bring	
  mass	
  disruption	
  to	
  commuters,	
  
parents	
   and	
   people	
   who	
   need	
   public	
   services	
   on	
   the	
   basis	
   of	
   …very	
   small	
   turnouts’	
  
(Financial	
   Times,	
   10	
   January	
   2015).	
   Likewise	
   John	
   Longworth,	
   director-­‐general	
   of	
   the	
  
Chambers	
   of	
   Commerce,	
   has	
   commented:	
   ‘When	
   it	
   comes	
   to	
   transport,	
   education	
   and	
  
health,	
  which	
  individuals	
  and	
  business	
  depend	
  on,	
  the	
  right	
  to	
  strike	
  must	
  only	
  be	
  exercised	
  
with	
   the	
   greatest	
   restraint.	
   So	
   higher	
   standards	
   should	
   apply	
   when	
   a	
   strike	
   would	
   put	
  
people	
  at	
  risk	
  or	
  affect	
  the	
  ability	
  of	
  large	
  numbers	
  of	
  their	
  fellow	
  citizens	
  to	
  earn	
  a	
  living’	
  
(Financial	
   Times,	
   10	
   January	
   2015).	
   As	
   Sajid	
   Javid	
   has	
   made	
   clear,	
   ‘by	
   increasing	
   the	
  
thresholds	
  it	
  will	
  certainly	
  increase	
  the	
  hurdles	
  that	
  need	
  to	
  be	
  crossed’,	
  and	
  at	
  the	
  same	
  
time	
  tackle	
  the	
  ‘disproportionate	
  impact	
  of	
  strikes’	
  in	
  these	
  areas	
  (BBC	
  News,	
  12	
  May	
  2015).	
  
In	
   the	
   process	
   the	
   proposals	
   are	
   seen	
   as	
   a	
   ‘commonsensical	
   attempt	
   to	
   prevent	
  
unrepresentative,	
   highly-­‐politicised	
   activists	
   from	
   hijacking	
   unenthusiastic	
   workforces’	
   on	
  
the	
  basis	
  ‘there	
  has	
  always	
  been	
  a	
  gulf	
  between	
  union	
  leaders	
  and	
  their	
  membership…this	
  is	
  
the	
  government’s	
  chance	
  to	
  isolate	
  and	
  discredit	
  the	
  headbangers’	
  (Daily	
  Telegraph,	
  13	
  May	
  
2015).	
  
Katja	
   Hall,	
   CBI	
   deputy	
   director-­‐general,	
   has	
   welcomed	
   the	
   reforms	
   to	
   ‘outdated	
  
industrial	
   relations	
   laws’	
   (Guardian,	
   15	
   July	
   2015),	
   with	
   the	
   introduction	
   of	
   balloting	
  
thresholds	
  ‘an	
  important,	
  but	
  fair,	
  step	
  to	
  rebalance	
  the	
  interest	
  of	
  employers,	
  employees,	
  
the	
  public	
  and	
  the	
  rights	
  of	
  trade	
  unions’	
  (Daily	
  Mail,	
  10	
  January	
  2015).	
  By	
  contrast	
  the	
  TUC	
  
have	
  claimed,	
  imposing	
  such	
  minimum	
  turnouts	
  would	
  leave	
  unions	
  with	
  ‘about	
  as	
  much	
  
power	
  as	
  Oliver	
  Twist	
  when	
  he	
  asked	
  for	
  more’	
  (Guardian,	
  12	
  May	
  2015).	
  Certainly,	
  as	
  a	
  
recent	
  International	
  Labour	
  Organisation	
  report	
  (ILO,	
  2015)	
  has	
  reiterated,	
  the	
  right	
  to	
  strike	
  
is	
  a	
  fundamental	
  right	
  to	
  free	
  association.	
  But	
  it	
  is	
  not	
  simply	
  a	
  right	
  to	
  come	
  together	
  as	
  a	
  
discussion	
  group	
  or	
  to	
  advocate	
  an	
  idea	
  or	
  a	
  cause;	
  it	
  is	
  the	
  right	
  to	
  act	
  in	
  concert	
  as	
  much	
  as	
  
it	
  is	
  to	
  combine.	
  With	
  the	
  social	
  and	
  economic	
  power	
  of	
  employers	
  much	
  greater	
  than	
  that	
  
of	
  the	
  individual	
  worker,	
  the	
  right	
  to	
  strike	
  is	
  a	
  necessary	
  collective	
  means	
  to	
  redress	
  the	
  
imbalance	
   of	
   the	
   employer/employee	
   relationship	
   (Kahn	
   Freund	
   and	
   Hepple,	
   1972;	
  
McFarlane,	
  1981;	
  Wedderburn,	
  1995).	
  	
  	
  
From	
   this	
   perspective,	
   the	
   government’s	
   legislation	
   would	
   effectively	
   undermine	
  
collective	
  bargaining	
  by	
  removing	
  the	
  implicit	
  strike	
  threat	
  from	
  the	
  union	
  side.	
  Such	
  a	
  shift	
  
in	
  the	
  balance	
  of	
  power	
  away	
  from	
  ordinary	
  workers	
  would	
  further	
  undermine	
  the	
  pay	
  and	
  
conditions	
  of	
  workers,	
  exacerbate	
  the	
  growing	
  gulf	
  between	
  wages	
  and	
  the	
  cost	
  of	
  living,	
  
increase	
   inequality,	
   and	
   destroy	
   long-­‐established	
   workplace	
   rights	
   introduced	
   to	
   protect	
  
employees	
  from	
  exploitation	
  (Labour	
  Research,	
  2014;	
  Centre	
  for	
  Social	
  and	
  Labour	
  Studies,	
  
2015).	
   Ironically,	
   although	
   Prime	
   Minister	
   David	
   Cameron	
   has	
   declared	
   he	
   wants	
   the	
  
Conservatives	
   to	
   be	
   the	
   ‘party	
   of	
   working	
   people’	
   (Daily	
   Telegraph,	
   12	
   May	
   2015),	
   he	
   is	
  
committed	
  to	
  making	
  it	
  harder	
  for	
  those	
  people	
  to	
  organise	
  themselves	
  in	
  a	
  trade	
  union.	
  
In	
   some	
   respects,	
   the	
   pledge	
   to	
   introduce	
   further	
   restrictive	
   regulation	
   of	
   strike	
  
balloting	
  might	
  seem	
  ironical	
  given	
  that,	
  according	
  to	
  the	
  three	
  different	
  main	
  indicators	
  of	
  
strike	
   activity	
   in	
   the	
   UK	
   (number	
   of	
   strikes,	
   number	
   of	
   workers	
   involved,	
   and	
   number	
   of	
  
strike	
  days	
  lost),	
  strike	
  activity	
  has	
  for	
  the	
  last	
  20	
  years	
  remained	
  at	
  historically	
  low	
  levels.	
  Of	
  
course	
   there	
   have	
   been	
   some	
   very	
   large	
   set-­‐piece	
   one-­‐day	
   public	
   sector	
   strikes	
   over	
  
pensions	
  in	
  June	
  and	
  November	
  2011	
  and	
  over	
  pay,	
  pensions	
  and	
  workload	
  in	
  July	
  2014	
  
(Gall	
  and	
  Cohen,	
  2013;	
  Hale,	
  2007;	
  2008;	
  2009;	
  2010;	
  2012;	
  Lyddon,	
  1998;	
  2007;	
  2009),	
  but	
  
such	
  spikes	
  have	
  not	
  altered	
  the	
  overall	
  trend.	
  Nor	
  has	
  sporadic	
  one-­‐day	
  national	
  strikes	
  by	
  
9	
  
	
  
civil	
   servants,	
   teachers,	
   firefighters,	
   and	
   rail	
   network	
   and	
   London	
   Underground	
   workers.	
  
Whatever	
  the	
  public	
  profile	
  of	
  such	
  disputes,	
  levels	
  of	
  strike	
  action	
  remain	
  at	
  very	
  low	
  levels	
  
compared	
  to	
  the	
  heyday	
  of	
  union	
  militancy	
  in	
  the	
  1970s	
  and	
  1980s,	
  with	
  average	
  number	
  of	
  
working	
  days	
  lost	
  through	
  strikes	
  between	
  1980-­‐1989	
  at	
  7.2	
  million	
  compared	
  to	
  the	
  period	
  
2010-­‐14	
  when	
  it	
  was	
  647,000,	
  albeit	
  slightly	
  higher	
  in	
  2014	
  at	
  788,000	
  (Office	
  for	
  National	
  
Statistics,	
   2015).	
   Indeed	
   what	
   is	
   notable	
   about	
   when	
   the	
   Conservative	
   government	
  
introduced	
   balloting	
   reforms	
   in	
   the	
   early	
   1980s	
   is	
   that	
   it	
   was	
   on	
   the	
   back	
   of	
   a	
   wave	
   of	
  
industrial	
  discontent,	
  whereas	
  today	
  union	
  militancy	
  has	
  been	
  considerably	
  diminished.	
  So	
  
what	
   is	
   it	
   that	
   actually	
   explains	
   the	
   pressure	
   for	
   legislative	
   change,	
   and	
   what	
   are	
   the	
  
underlying	
  real	
  motivations?	
  Arguably	
  there	
  are	
  three	
  factors	
  at	
  play.	
  	
  
First,	
  there	
  is	
  the	
  Conservatives’	
  ideological	
  agenda	
  of	
  seeking	
  to	
  utilise	
  austerity	
  and	
  
the	
  government’s	
  neoliberal	
  offensive	
  as	
  a	
  means	
  to	
  impose	
  even	
  further	
  restrictions	
  on	
  a	
  
relatively	
   weak	
   and	
   defensive	
   trade	
   union	
   movement	
   so	
   as	
   to	
   cement	
   that	
   weakness.	
  
Second,	
  there	
  is	
  the	
  location	
  of	
  those	
  strikes	
  that	
  still	
  do	
  take	
  place,	
  namely	
  in	
  so-­‐called	
  
‘monopoly	
   sectors’	
   like	
   transport	
   and	
   communication	
   and	
   the	
   public	
   services,	
   and	
   the	
  
nature	
  of	
  these	
  strikes,	
  which	
  have	
  tended	
  to	
  be	
  relatively	
  large	
  and	
  with	
  immediate	
  and	
  
direct	
   effect	
   on	
   essential	
   services	
   and	
   the	
   public,	
   for	
   example	
   closing	
   down	
   schools,	
  
disrupting	
   the	
   fire	
   service,	
   and	
   paralysing	
   the	
   railway	
   and	
   London	
   tube	
   networks	
   (Gall,	
  
2010).	
  	
  
Third,	
   notwithstanding	
   historically	
   low	
   levels	
   of	
   strike	
   activity	
   overall,	
   it	
   would	
  
appear	
  the	
  Conservatives’	
  perceived	
  ‘problem’	
  is	
  less	
  one	
  that	
  exists	
  now	
  than	
  one	
  than	
  
what	
   is	
   foreseen	
   and	
   feared	
   in	
   the	
   future.	
   With	
   an	
   economic	
   and	
   political	
   imperative	
   to	
  
proceed	
   with	
   much	
   deeper	
   spending	
   cuts	
   than	
   previously	
   and	
   to	
   maintain	
   a	
   1	
   per	
   cent	
  
freeze	
   on	
   public	
   sector	
   pay	
   over	
   a	
   4-­‐year	
   period,	
   the	
   new	
   Conservative	
   government’s	
  
proposed	
   legislation	
   appears	
   to	
   have	
   been	
   principally	
   designed	
   to	
   try	
   to	
   make	
   it	
   much	
  
harder	
  for	
  unions	
  to	
  take	
  strike	
  action	
  and	
  to	
  weaken	
  potential	
  future	
  union	
  resistance	
  to	
  
more	
  austerity.	
  As	
  Dave	
  Ward,	
  the	
  new	
  general	
  secretary	
  of	
  the	
  Communication	
  Workers	
  
Union	
   (CWU),	
   has	
   said:	
   ‘This	
   is	
   a	
   Tory	
   government	
   that	
   is	
   planning	
   to	
   undermine	
   the	
  
incomes	
  and	
  conditions	
  of	
  working	
  people	
  whilst	
  at	
  the	
  same	
  time	
  cynically	
  sabotaging	
  the	
  
very	
  means	
  they	
  have	
  to	
  speak	
  out	
  in	
  protest’	
  (Express	
  and	
  Star,	
  27	
  May	
  2015).	
  
	
  
Illogical	
  implications	
  
Stanley	
   (2014)	
   has	
   compellingly	
   pointed	
   out	
   there	
   is	
   illogicality	
   to	
   the	
   Conservative’s	
  
requirements	
  for	
  strike	
  ballots	
  to	
  have	
  a	
  50	
  per	
  cent	
  turnout	
  before	
  they	
  are	
  considered	
  
valid.	
  He	
  utilises	
  the	
  example	
  of	
  two	
  hypothetical	
  strike	
  ballots	
  of	
  two	
  different	
  1,000	
  strong	
  
workforces.	
  In	
  Acme	
  Rivets,	
  there	
  is	
  an	
  overwhelming	
  vote	
  for	
  action,	
  with	
  495	
  in	
  favour	
  
and	
  4	
  against,	
  whereas	
  in	
  Gradgrind	
  Mills	
  the	
  workforce	
  are	
  more	
  divided,	
  voting	
  for	
  action	
  
by	
  just	
  one	
  vote,	
  251	
  in	
  favour	
  and	
  250	
  against.	
  Union	
  negotiators	
  might	
  be	
  wary	
  of	
  calling	
  
action	
  in	
  Gradgrind	
  Mills	
  as	
  the	
  vote	
  reveals	
  a	
  divided	
  workforce,	
  and	
  the	
  employer	
  might	
  
not	
  feel	
  under	
  pressure	
  to	
  make	
  a	
  much	
  better	
  offer.	
  But	
  in	
  Acme	
  Rivets	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  clear	
  
mandate	
  for	
  action,	
  and	
  any	
  employer	
  would	
  find	
  the	
  vote	
  impressive.	
  However,	
  under	
  the	
  
Conservative’s	
  plans,	
  a	
  strike	
  in	
  Acme	
  Rivets	
  would	
  be	
  illegal	
  as	
  the	
  turnout	
  is	
  just	
  below	
  the	
  
50	
  per	
  cent	
  threshold	
  needed	
  to	
  make	
  action	
  lawful.	
  By	
  contrast,	
  despite	
  the	
  split	
  vote	
  at	
  
Gradgrind	
  Mills,	
  and	
  even	
  though	
  244	
  fewer	
  workers	
  voted	
  for	
  action,	
  a	
  strike	
  would	
  be	
  
10	
  
	
  
legal.	
   But	
   if	
   only	
   one	
   person	
   who	
   voted	
   ‘no’	
   abstained	
   instead,	
   the	
   vote	
   would	
   become	
  
invalid	
  as	
  the	
  turnout	
  would	
  no	
  longer	
  be	
  in	
  excess	
  of	
  50	
  per	
  cent.	
  
As	
  Stanley	
  (2014)	
  has	
  explained,	
  under	
  the	
  proposals	
  the	
  people	
  who	
  do	
  not	
  vote	
  in	
  
a	
  strike	
  ballot	
  attain	
  a	
  special	
  status.	
  First,	
  they	
  are	
  assumed	
  to,	
  in	
  effect,	
  be	
  opponents	
  of	
  
strike	
  action.	
  Yet	
  arguably	
  whilst	
  apathy	
  or	
  lack	
  of	
  opinion	
  might	
  be	
  anathema	
  for	
  active	
  
trade	
  unionists,	
  it	
  is	
  nonetheless	
  a	
  legitimate	
  position,	
  and	
  does	
  not	
  equate	
  to	
  supporting	
  
one	
  side	
  or	
  the	
  other.	
  The	
  fact	
  that	
  they	
  do	
  not	
  vote	
  does	
  not	
  necessarily	
  mean	
  that	
  if	
  they	
  
had	
  they	
  would	
  have	
  voted	
  against	
  taking	
  strike	
  action.	
  Second,	
  the	
  special	
  status	
  of	
  the	
  
person	
  who	
  does	
  not	
  vote	
  goes	
  further	
  in	
  that	
  they	
  can	
  potentially	
  have	
  greater	
  weight	
  than	
  
those	
  who	
  oppose	
  the	
  action	
  and	
  take	
  the	
  trouble	
  to	
  register	
  a	
  vote.	
  So	
  if	
  there	
  were	
  1,000	
  
people	
  eligible	
  to	
  vote	
  in	
  a	
  strike	
  ballot	
  and	
  499	
  voted	
  in	
  favour	
  it	
  would	
  nullify	
  the	
  validity	
  
of	
  the	
  vote,	
  as	
  the	
  turnout	
  would	
  fall	
  below	
  50	
  per	
  cent	
  on	
  the	
  basis	
  of	
  one	
  abstention.	
  
In	
  reality,	
  we	
  cannot	
  really	
  infer	
  the	
  intent	
  of	
  those	
  who	
  do	
  not	
  vote.	
  All	
  we	
  really	
  
know	
   about	
   non-­‐voters	
   is	
   that	
   they	
   don’t	
   know,	
   are	
   not	
   sure,	
   or	
   do	
   not	
   care	
   enough	
   to	
  
participate	
  when	
  they	
  are	
  provided	
  a	
  chance	
  –	
  and	
  therefore	
  it	
  could	
  be	
  argued	
  that	
  they	
  
should	
   not	
   get	
   to	
   help	
   to	
   decide.	
   In	
   fact,	
   thresholds	
   would	
   make	
   it	
   theoretically	
   more	
  
beneficial	
  for	
  active	
  opponents	
  of	
  strike	
  action	
  to	
  collectively	
  non-­‐vote	
  if	
  they	
  knew	
  they	
  
were	
   in	
   the	
   minority,	
   since	
   by	
   not	
   voting	
   they	
   could	
   prevent	
   it	
   reaching	
   the	
   imposed	
  
‘legitimatising’	
  threshold	
  and	
  thus	
  defeat	
  the	
  strike	
  decision,	
  whereas	
  by	
  actually	
  voting	
  ‘no’	
  
when	
   they	
   knew	
   most	
   would	
   vote	
   ‘yes’	
   they	
   would	
   be	
   guaranteeing	
   passage.	
   In	
   other	
  
words,	
  the	
  legislation	
  could	
  potentially	
  reduce	
  participation	
  rates.	
  
Strike	
   ballots	
   were	
   initially	
   enacted	
   in	
   the	
   early	
   1980s	
   with	
   the	
   expectation	
   that	
  
union	
   members	
   would	
   generally	
   be	
   reluctant	
   to	
   take	
   action	
   and	
   would	
   vote	
   accordingly,	
  
such	
  that	
  the	
  incidence	
  of	
  strikes	
  would	
  be	
  reduced.	
  Yet	
  the	
  argument	
  that	
  the	
  so-­‐called	
  
‘silent	
  majority’	
  would	
  vote	
  in	
  a	
  ballot	
  against	
  ‘hot-­‐headed’	
  militant	
  union	
  leaderships	
  has	
  
proved	
  to	
  be	
  false;	
  since	
  strike	
  votes	
  have	
  been	
  formally	
  measurable	
  it	
  can	
  be	
  shown	
  that	
  
most	
  members	
  support	
  their	
  leaders’	
  recommendations	
  to	
  strike.	
  	
  
	
  
Trade	
  union	
  strike	
  ballots	
  2007-­‐2014	
  
	
  
Year	
   Ballots	
   calling	
   for	
  
‘strike	
  action’	
  
Ballots	
  voting	
  FOR	
  
strike	
  action	
  
Ballots	
  voting	
  
AGAINST	
  strike	
  
action	
  
Split	
  result	
  
	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  
2007	
   713	
   637	
   64	
   12	
  
2008	
   794	
   658	
   123	
   13	
  
2009	
   561	
   458	
   93	
   10	
  
2010	
   555	
   487	
   61	
   7	
  
2011	
   964	
   904	
   51	
   9	
  
2012	
   585	
   487	
   89	
   8	
  
2013	
   469	
   417	
   48	
   4	
  
2014	
   628	
   550	
   68	
   10	
  
	
  
Source:	
  	
  Office	
  for	
  National	
  Statistics,	
  2015	
  
	
  
11	
  
	
  
The	
  frequent	
  amendments	
  to	
  the	
  legislation	
  on	
  industrial	
  action	
  ballots	
  (of	
  which	
  the	
  
threshold	
  measures	
  are	
  the	
  latest	
  initiative)	
  are	
  no	
  doubt,	
  in	
  part	
  at	
  least,	
  a	
  response	
  to	
  
employers’	
   concerns	
   that	
   members’	
   support	
   for	
   union	
   claims	
   registered	
   in	
   ballots	
   can	
  
actually	
  strengthen	
  unions’	
  bargaining	
  position.	
  Likewise	
  the	
  repeated	
  legal	
  challenges	
  and	
  
threats	
  of	
  injunctions	
  to	
  trade	
  unions’	
  calls	
  on	
  members	
  to	
  take	
  strike	
  action	
  which	
  have	
  
been	
  made	
  by	
  employers,	
  often	
  on	
  the	
  grounds	
  of	
  alleged	
  failure	
  to	
  satisfy	
  the	
  complex	
  
statutory	
   prescription	
   for	
   ballots	
   and	
   associated	
   notices	
   to	
   employers	
   (Simpson,	
   2012;	
  
2013).	
   Sometimes	
   this	
   legal	
   action	
   has	
   succeeded	
   and	
   resulted	
   in	
   the	
   ballot	
   being	
  
suspended	
  or	
  strike	
  cancelled	
  (Gall,	
  2006);	
  for	
  example,	
  Unite	
  was	
  taken	
  to	
  the	
  High	
  Court	
  
by	
  British	
  Airways	
  in	
  2010,	
  over	
  a	
  long-­‐running	
  dispute	
  with	
  cabin	
  crew.	
  Despite	
  eight	
  out	
  of	
  
ten	
  workers	
  voting	
  for	
  strike	
  action	
  on	
  the	
  back	
  of	
  a	
  78	
  per	
  cent	
  ballot	
  turnout,	
  the	
  High	
  
Court	
  judge	
  banned	
  the	
  strike	
  because	
  the	
  union	
  had	
  failed	
  to	
  give	
  notice	
  by	
  text	
  message	
  
that	
  eleven	
  out	
  of	
  9,282	
  votes	
  had	
  been	
  spoilt.	
  But	
  the	
  employers’	
  use	
  of	
  legal	
  action	
  is	
  also	
  
a	
  reflection	
  of	
  the	
  fact	
  that	
  the	
  introduction	
  of	
  postal	
  industrial	
  action	
  ballots	
  has	
  manifestly	
  
failed	
  in	
  its	
  intention	
  of	
  preventing	
  workers	
  from	
  voting	
  in	
  favour	
  of	
  strikes.	
  
Unions	
   do	
   not	
   necessarily	
   take	
   strike	
   action	
   following	
   a	
   positive	
   mandate.	
   Indeed	
  
there	
  have	
  always	
  been	
  far	
  more	
  successful	
  ballots	
  and	
  notices	
  of	
  strike	
  action	
  than	
  actual	
  
strikes.	
  It	
  is	
  the	
  willingness	
  of	
  union	
  members	
  to	
  vote	
  in	
  favour	
  of,	
  and	
  participate	
  in	
  strike	
  
action,	
   that	
   has	
   resulted	
   in	
   unions	
   using	
   ballots	
   as	
   a	
   negotiation	
   tactic,	
   as	
   a	
   means	
   of	
  
attempting	
   to	
   force	
   employers	
   to	
   make	
   concessions	
   previously	
   denied.	
   Often	
   the	
   strike	
  
threat,	
   stemming	
   from	
   a	
   successful	
   ballot,	
   can	
   act	
   as	
   a	
   proxy	
   for	
   a	
   strike	
   itself,	
   as	
   the	
  
employer	
  becomes	
  willing	
  to	
  make	
  compromises	
  and	
  the	
  union	
  is	
  able	
  to	
  achieve	
  a	
  more	
  
favourable	
  settlement	
  without	
  the	
  need	
  to	
  take	
  action	
  (Brown	
  and	
  Wadhwani,	
  1190:	
  62).	
  
Nonetheless,	
  a	
  sizeable	
  number	
  of	
  ballots	
  will	
  result	
  in	
  a	
  credible	
  prospect	
  of	
  strike	
  action	
  
occurring	
  (Gall,	
  2006:	
  335-­‐6).	
  	
  
There	
  is	
  also	
  the	
  argument	
  that	
  it	
  is	
  not	
  reasonable	
  to	
  impose	
  electoral	
  thresholds	
  
which	
  do	
  not	
  apply	
  to	
  the	
  UK’s	
  political	
  system	
  generally.	
  Thus	
  there	
  have	
  been	
  a	
  number	
  of	
  
recent	
  local	
  elections	
  in	
  which	
  turnout	
  has	
  been	
  nowhere	
  near	
  50	
  per	
  cent.	
  In	
  the	
  2008	
  
London	
  Mayoral	
  election	
  it	
  was	
  just	
  45	
  per	
  cent	
  and	
  in	
  2012	
  Boris	
  Johnson	
  was	
  elected	
  with	
  
less	
  than	
  50	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  both	
  first	
  and	
  second	
  preference	
  votes	
  and	
  on	
  a	
  turnout	
  of	
  only	
  38.1	
  
per	
  cent.	
  The	
  lowest	
  ever	
  by-­‐election	
  turnout	
  of	
  18.2	
  per	
  cent	
  was	
  recorded	
  in	
  the	
  2012	
  
Manchester	
  Central	
  by-­‐election	
  (with	
  the	
  incumbent	
  Labour	
  MP	
  Lucy	
  Powell	
  winning	
  with	
  
just	
   12	
   per	
   cent	
   support).	
   Recent	
   local	
   Police	
   and	
   Crime	
   Commissioner	
   elections	
   have	
  
resulted	
  in	
  turnouts	
  as	
  low	
  as	
  16.4	
  per	
  cent	
  in	
  Northumbria	
  and	
  10.3	
  per	
  cent	
  in	
  the	
  West	
  
Midlands.	
  	
  
A	
   similar	
   pattern	
   has	
   been	
   played	
   out	
   in	
   general	
   elections.	
   Turnout	
   for	
   the	
   2014	
  
European	
   Parliament	
   elections	
   was	
   just	
   over	
   34.2	
   per	
   cent,	
   and	
   for	
   the	
   2012	
   Alternative	
  
Vote	
  (AV)	
  electoral	
  system	
  referendum	
  it	
  was	
  just	
  41	
  per	
  cent.	
  In	
  the	
  May	
  2015	
  general	
  
parliamentary	
  elections	
  only	
  37	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  voters	
  and	
  less	
  than	
  25	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  the	
  eligible	
  
electorate	
  as	
  a	
  whole	
  supported	
  the	
  Conservatives.	
  David	
  Cameron	
  managed	
  to	
  obtain	
  60.1	
  
per	
  cent	
  of	
  the	
  vote	
  on	
  a	
  turnout	
  of	
  70.2	
  per	
  cent,	
  but	
  only	
  41.1	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  the	
  eligible	
  
electorate,	
  and	
  the	
  Chancellor	
  George	
  Osbourne	
  managed	
  to	
  obtain	
  58.6	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  the	
  
vote,	
  on	
  a	
  turnout	
  of	
  70.2	
  per	
  cent,	
  but	
  only	
  41.1	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  the	
  eligible	
  electorate.	
  	
  
12	
  
	
  
Yet	
   despite	
   these	
   poor	
   turnouts	
   for	
   political	
   elections	
   the	
   Conservatives	
   have	
   not	
  
proposed	
  similar	
  thresholds	
  to	
  those	
  that	
  trade	
  unions	
  are	
  going	
  to	
  be	
  expected	
  to	
  meet.	
  
	
  
Competing	
  models	
  of	
  union	
  democracy	
  
The	
   TUC	
   and	
   many	
   unions	
   have	
   pointed	
   out	
   that	
   there	
   are	
   more	
   proportionate	
   and	
  
measured	
  ways	
  to	
  address	
  the	
  issue	
  of	
  low	
  ballot	
  participation	
  rates,	
  and	
  which	
  attempt	
  to	
  
overcome	
  what	
  is	
  regarded	
  as	
  the	
  main	
  obstacle	
  to	
  higher	
  voting	
  levels:	
  secret	
  individual	
  
postal	
  ballots	
  sent	
  to	
  the	
  home.	
  As	
  Frances	
  O’Grady	
  has	
  said:	
  	
  
It	
  is	
  everyone’s	
  interest	
  to	
  ensure	
  that	
  as	
  many	
  people	
  as	
  possible	
  participate,	
  but	
  the	
  government	
  
has	
  saddled	
  unions	
  with	
  twentieth	
  century	
  postal	
  balloting	
  methods	
  that	
  make	
  it	
  harder	
  for	
  working	
  
people	
  to	
  do	
  just	
  that.	
  Online	
  voting	
  is	
  the	
  way	
  to	
  bring	
  balloting	
  bang	
  up	
  to	
  date	
  and	
  help	
  ensure	
  
some	
  equality	
  in	
  the	
  workplace	
  (Independent,	
  21	
  March	
  2015).	
  	
  
Removing	
  the	
  requirement	
  for	
  unions	
  to	
  post	
  ballot	
  papers	
  to	
  their	
  members’	
  home	
  
addresses	
   (notably	
   in	
   an	
   era	
   when	
   most	
   post	
   tends	
   to	
   be	
   junk	
   mail	
   or	
   bills)	
   and	
   instead	
  
allowing	
  union	
  members	
  to	
  complete	
  ballot	
  papers	
  electronically	
  via	
  a	
  secure	
  online	
  link	
  on	
  
their	
   work	
   computers,	
   home	
   laptops,	
   tablets	
   or	
   smartphones	
   would	
   seem	
   likely	
   to	
  
encourage	
   increased	
   voter	
   turnout,	
   as	
   well	
   as	
   reduce	
   the	
   cost	
   of	
   ballots	
   on	
   unions	
  
considerably.5
	
   Such	
   an	
   initiative	
   is	
   part	
   of	
   a	
   wider	
   drive	
   by	
   pressure	
   groups	
   such	
   as	
  
WebRoots	
  Democracy,	
  who	
  campaign	
  for	
  the	
  introduction	
  of	
  an	
  online	
  voting	
  option	
  in	
  UK	
  
elections	
  on	
  the	
  basis	
  that,	
  despite	
  being	
  able	
  to	
  email,	
  follow,	
  and	
  tweet	
  their	
  elected	
  MPs	
  
online,	
  electors	
  are	
  not	
  yet	
  able	
  to	
  vote	
  for	
  them	
  online.	
  The	
  pressure	
  group	
  maintain	
  that	
  
to	
  reverse	
  growing	
  political	
  apathy	
  and	
  low	
  electoral	
  turnout	
  in	
  the	
  UK,	
  particularly	
  among	
  
young	
   people,	
   the	
   UK	
   needs	
   to	
   introduce	
   an	
   online	
   voting	
   option	
   in	
   time	
   for	
   the	
   2020	
  
General	
   Election,	
   as	
   well	
   as	
   online	
   trade	
   union	
   strike	
   ballots	
   by	
   2016.	
   It	
   is	
   claimed	
   the	
  
introduction	
  of	
  an	
  online	
  voting	
  option	
  could	
  increase	
  turnout	
  in	
  a	
  General	
  Election	
  by	
  up	
  to	
  
79	
   per	
   cent,	
   with	
   up	
   to	
   an	
   extra	
   9	
   million	
   voters	
   (WebRoots	
   Democracy,	
   2015:	
   11-­‐13).	
  
Likewise,	
  according	
  to	
  PCS	
  general	
  secretary	
  Mark	
  Serwotka,	
  turn-­‐out	
  in	
  strike	
  ballots	
  would	
  
‘rocket’	
  if	
  union	
  members	
  were	
  allowed	
  to	
  vote	
  electronically	
  or	
  by	
  phone	
  (BBC	
  News,	
  19	
  
May	
  2015).	
  
However,	
  online	
  voting	
  does	
  not	
  always	
  increase	
  turnout,	
  with	
  data	
  from	
  Estonia	
  –	
  
where	
  online	
  voting	
  has	
  been	
  available	
  since	
  2005	
  –	
  showing	
  that	
  it	
  is	
  often	
  people	
  who	
  
were	
   voting	
   already	
   who	
   are	
   switching	
   to	
   the	
   service.	
   Evidence	
   from	
   the	
   University	
   and	
  
College	
  Union’s	
  (UCU)	
  2014	
  post-­‐strike	
  action	
  online	
  consultative	
  ballot	
  (as	
  opposed	
  to	
  a	
  
strike	
  ballot,	
  albeit	
  further	
  strikes	
  were	
  implicit	
  in	
  a	
  ‘no’	
  vote)	
  on	
  whether	
  to	
  accept	
  revised	
  
pension	
  change	
  proposals	
  was	
  that	
  voting	
  levels	
  may	
  have	
  been	
  encouraged	
  slightly,	
  with	
  a	
  
turnout	
  recorded	
  of	
  39.1	
  per	
  cent	
  (15,706	
  in	
  total),	
  involving	
  10,538	
  (67	
  per	
  cent)	
  voting	
  
‘yes’	
  to	
  accept	
  and	
  only	
  5,168	
  voting	
  ‘no’	
  to	
  reject	
  (32.9	
  per	
  cent).	
  (UCU	
  Circular,	
  26	
  January	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
5
	
   The	
   cost	
   of	
   strike	
   ballots	
   was	
   initially	
   borne	
   by	
   the	
   state.	
   The	
   1980	
   Employment	
   Act	
   encouraged	
   the	
  
extension	
  of	
  postal	
  ballots	
  by	
  providing	
  state	
  funding	
  for	
  the	
  first	
  time	
  under	
  statutory	
  instrument;	
  initially	
  
these	
  applied	
  to	
  closed	
  shop	
  ballots	
  but	
  were	
  extended	
  by	
  later	
  Acts	
  to	
  include	
  strike	
  ballots.	
  After	
  a	
  number	
  
of	
  ballots,	
  including	
  strike	
  ballots,	
  had	
  been	
  made	
  effectively	
  compulsory,	
  state	
  funding	
  was	
  withdrawn	
  with	
  
effect	
  from	
  1996	
  by	
  Statutory	
  Instrument	
  in	
  1993.	
  The	
  result	
  has	
  been	
  that	
  since	
  1996	
  unions	
  can	
  be	
  obliged	
  to	
  
spend	
  many	
  thousands	
  of	
  pounds	
  on	
  the	
  balloting	
  process.	
  	
  
13	
  
	
  
2015).	
   Yet	
   even	
   though	
   online	
   voting	
   would	
   undoubtedly	
   make	
   it	
   technically	
   easier	
   for	
  
union	
   members	
   to	
   participate	
   in	
   strike	
   ballots,	
   it	
   is	
   not	
   does	
   overcome	
   the	
   inherent	
  
fragmentation	
  and	
  atomisation	
  of	
  the	
  balloting	
  process.	
  
	
   The	
   more	
   fundamental	
   underlying	
   problem	
   is	
   the	
   way	
   government	
   legislative	
  
initiatives	
  with	
  respect	
  to	
  strike	
  ballots	
  over	
  the	
  last	
  30	
  years	
  have	
  often	
  been	
  successfully	
  
portrayed	
   as	
   a	
   necessary	
   means	
   to	
   increase	
   union	
   membership	
   participation	
   in	
   critically	
  
important	
  decisions,	
  and	
  thereby	
  improve	
  democracy	
  -­‐	
  when	
  arguably	
  it	
  has	
  had	
  very	
  little	
  
to	
  do	
  with	
  democracy,	
  the	
  objective	
  being	
  simply	
  to	
  make	
  strike	
  decisions	
  and	
  action	
  more	
  
difficult	
  (McCrystal	
  and	
  Novitz,	
  2012).	
  This	
  linking	
  of	
  ballots	
  and	
  democracy	
  has	
  always	
  been	
  
central	
  to	
  the	
  debate	
  about	
  secret	
  postal	
  ballots.	
  A	
  1976	
  Conservative	
  Party	
  manifesto,	
  The	
  
Right	
  Approach,	
  argued	
  that	
  the	
  system	
  of	
  union	
  democracy	
  enshrined	
  in	
  union	
  rulebooks	
  
did	
  not	
  function	
  in	
  practice.	
  Because	
  the	
  members	
  of	
  many	
  unions	
  were	
  required	
  to	
  attend	
  
branch	
  meetings	
  if	
  they	
  wished	
  to	
  vote	
  on	
  policy	
  issues,	
  elect	
  their	
  general	
  secretary,	
  or	
  
vote	
   for	
   industrial	
   action,	
   it	
   was	
   claimed	
   they	
   were	
   controlled	
   by	
   unrepresentative	
  
minorities	
   of	
   militant	
   and	
   left-­‐wing	
   politically	
   motivated	
   activists.	
   The	
   vast	
   majority	
   of	
  
members	
   were	
   not	
   willing	
   or	
   able	
   to	
   attend	
   branch	
   meetings	
   or	
   to	
   take	
   part	
   in	
   policy	
  
debates	
  and	
  elections.	
  	
  
The	
  solution	
  was	
  seen	
  to	
  lie	
  in	
  introducing	
  legislation	
  that	
  would	
  make	
  it	
  compulsory	
  
for	
  unions	
  to	
  involve	
  members	
  through	
  secret	
  postal	
  ballots.	
  This	
  would,	
  it	
  was	
  claimed,	
  
take	
   power	
   away	
   from	
   the	
   militants	
   and	
   ‘give	
   the	
   unions	
   back	
   to	
   the	
   members’.	
   Union	
  
members	
  would	
  receive	
  a	
  ballot	
  paper	
  through	
  the	
  post	
  and	
  be	
  asked	
  in	
  the	
  isolation	
  of	
  
their	
  own	
  homes	
  to	
  exercise	
  their	
  choice	
  as	
  to	
  whether	
  to	
  vote	
  ‘yes’	
  or	
  ‘no’	
  to	
  industrial	
  
action	
  proposals	
  (Undy	
  And	
  Martin,	
  1984:	
  15;	
  Farnham	
  and	
  Pimlott:	
  1995:	
  127-­‐128).	
  The	
  
presumption	
  was	
  that	
  decisions	
  would	
  be	
  made	
  on	
  a	
  more	
  ‘rational’	
  basis	
  if	
  the	
  individual	
  
worker	
  was	
  insulated	
  from	
  the	
  direct	
  pressures	
  of	
  work	
  colleagues	
  and	
  union	
  activists	
  and	
  
the	
  emotion	
  of	
  the	
  mass	
  meeting	
  (Martin,	
  et	
  al,	
  1991:	
  198).	
  
A	
   central	
   objective	
   of	
   the	
   legislation	
   was	
   to	
   sanctify	
   through	
   particular	
   ballot	
  
procedures	
   union	
   members’	
   participation	
   as	
   individuals	
   rather	
   than	
   as	
   members	
   of	
   a	
  
collective	
  -­‐	
  involving	
  a	
  separation	
  of	
  the	
  receipt	
  of	
  ballot	
  papers	
  from	
  the	
  workplace	
  and	
  the	
  
elevation	
  of	
  individualist	
  over	
  collectivist	
  values	
  as	
  a	
  means	
  of	
  subverting	
  collective	
  union	
  
organisation	
  and	
  orientations	
  (Smith	
  et,	
  1993;	
  Martin	
  et	
  al,	
  1995;	
  Undy	
  and	
  Martin,	
  1984;	
  
Undy	
   et	
   al,	
   1996).	
   On	
   the	
   basis	
   of	
   what	
   could	
   be	
   viewed	
   as	
   a	
   parliamentary	
   model	
   of	
  
democracy,	
  the	
  level	
  of	
  participation	
  in	
  strike	
  ballots	
  has	
  been	
  viewed	
  as	
  a	
  measure	
  of	
  union	
  
democracy,	
   such	
   that	
   the	
   higher	
   the	
   participation	
   rate	
   the	
   more	
   democratic	
   the	
   union	
  
(Edelstein	
  and	
  Warner,	
  1979:	
  63).	
  In	
  the	
  process,	
  it	
  effectively	
  dispensed	
  with	
  the	
  need	
  for	
  
dialogue,	
   debate	
   and	
   continuous	
   involvement	
   by	
   an	
   active	
   membership,	
   and	
   replaced	
   it	
  
with	
  a	
  highly	
  atomised	
  one-­‐off	
  vote	
  by	
  a	
  collection	
  of	
  aggregate	
  individuals	
  as	
  the	
  total	
  sum	
  
of	
  membership	
  participation	
  (Davies	
  and	
  Freedland,	
  1993:	
  484;	
  Fredman,	
  1992:	
  29).	
  
Critics	
   of	
   this	
   parliamentary	
   model	
   of	
   democracy	
   argued	
   the	
   balloting	
   legislation	
  
failed	
  to	
  recognise	
  trade	
  unions	
  as	
  collective	
  organisations	
  that	
  were	
  formed	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  
increase	
  the	
  power	
  of	
  individual	
  employees,	
  with	
  union	
  strength	
  dependent	
  on	
  members	
  
acting	
   collectively	
   to	
   organise	
   and	
   express	
   the	
   conflicts	
   inherent	
   in	
   the	
   employment	
  
relationship	
  (Mcllroy,	
  1998:	
  154).	
  Replacing	
  collective	
  decision	
  making	
  by	
  individual	
  secret	
  
ballots	
  undermined	
  (or	
  prevented	
  the	
  emergence	
  of)	
  the	
  solidarity	
  required	
  for	
  effective	
  
14	
  
	
  
strike	
  action.	
  It	
  essentially	
  counter	
  posed	
  the	
  idea	
  of	
  working	
  class	
  collective	
  strength	
  with	
  
that	
  of	
  individual	
  rights	
  and	
  decisions,	
  thereby	
  fragmenting	
  and	
  isolating	
  union	
  members	
  
away	
  from	
  their	
  fellow	
  workers	
  and	
  in	
  circumstances	
  where	
  they	
  were	
  most	
  open	
  to	
  self-­‐
doubt	
  and	
  moderate	
  ideas	
  (Hyman,	
  1989:	
  247).	
  	
  
Fairbrother	
  (1984)	
  advocated	
  an	
  alternative	
  participatory	
  model	
  of	
  democracy	
  which	
  
emphasised	
   the	
   central	
   importance	
   of	
   collective	
   membership	
   participation	
   and	
   decision-­‐
making	
   via	
   a	
   process	
   of	
   discussion,	
   debate	
   and	
   examination	
   of	
   policies	
   and	
   decisions	
  
founded	
  on	
  the	
  continuous	
  interaction	
  between	
  union	
  members	
  and	
  their	
  reps.	
  From	
  this	
  
perspective:	
  
Union	
   democracy	
   is…a	
   continuous	
   process	
   rooted	
   in	
   the	
   daily	
   experience	
   of	
   most	
   workers	
   and	
  
involving	
  a	
  continuous	
  struggle	
  about	
  the	
  conditions	
  of	
  employment,	
  the	
  authority	
  of	
  employers	
  and	
  
the	
  organisation	
  of	
  work…	
  
Disagreement	
  and	
  discussion,	
  argument	
  and	
  counter-­‐argument,	
  are	
  the	
  key	
  features	
  of	
  this	
  process	
  –	
  
a	
  sign	
  of	
  the	
  vitality	
  and	
  indeed	
  the	
  essence	
  of	
  union	
  organisation.	
  The	
  reason	
  for	
  this	
  is	
  that	
  the	
  
experience	
   of	
   members	
   is	
   often	
   varied	
   and	
   there	
   are	
   not	
   always	
   obvious	
   and	
   clear-­‐cut	
   ways	
   to	
  
proceed	
  and	
  advance	
  the	
  interests	
  of	
  the	
  membership.	
  Through	
  meetings,	
  discussions	
  and	
  debate,	
  
decisions	
  are	
  made	
  and	
  policy	
  formulated	
  (p.	
  23-­‐24).	
  
From	
  this	
  viewpoint	
  it	
  was	
  argued	
  that,	
  compared	
  with	
  the	
  secret	
  individual	
  postal	
  
ballot,	
  a	
  much	
  more	
  effective	
  –	
  and	
  more	
  genuinely	
  democratic	
  –	
  channel	
  for	
  participation	
  
would	
  involve	
  discussions,	
  debates	
  and	
  decisions	
  taken	
  at	
  workplace	
  union	
  meetings.	
  This	
  
would	
  allow	
  questions	
  to	
  be	
  raised	
  about,	
  for	
  instance,	
  the	
  likely	
  length	
  of	
  the	
  strike,	
  its	
  
objectives	
   and	
   the	
   ‘bottom	
   line’	
   for	
   a	
   settlement.	
   Under	
   such	
   circumstances,	
   in	
   which	
  
members	
  were	
  encouraged	
  to	
  actively	
  participate	
  in	
  the	
  deliberations,	
  they	
  would	
  be	
  more	
  
likely	
  to	
  understand	
  the	
  issues	
  and	
  arguments,	
  and	
  be	
  in	
  a	
  better	
  position	
  to	
  consider	
  their	
  
collective	
  interests	
  than	
  if	
  they	
  voted	
  as	
  isolated	
  individuals	
  at	
  home,	
  and	
  where	
  the	
  only	
  
real	
  ‘discussion’	
  of	
  the	
  proposal	
  for	
  many	
  members	
  would	
  come	
  in	
  the	
  form	
  of	
  a	
  positive	
  
union	
  recommendation,	
  on	
  the	
  one	
  hand,	
  and	
  negative	
  media	
  campaign,	
  on	
  the	
  other.	
  It	
  
would	
   vastly	
   increase	
   membership	
   participation	
   in	
   the	
   process	
   and	
   be	
   hugely	
   more	
  
democratic.	
  	
  	
  
Certainly	
   when	
   the	
   Trade	
   Union	
   Act	
   1984	
   (TUA	
   1984)	
   introduced	
   a	
   statutory	
  
requirement	
   for	
   trade	
   unions	
   to	
   hold	
   industrial	
   action	
   ballots	
   which	
   could	
   be	
   workplace	
  
ballots	
   and	
   to	
   achieve	
   a	
   majority	
   vote	
   in	
   favour	
   of	
   industrial	
   action,	
   it	
   had	
   the	
   effect	
   of	
  
increasing	
  the	
  levels	
  of	
  membership	
  participation,	
  according	
  to	
  an	
  analysis	
  of	
  the	
  turnout	
  in	
  
workplace	
   ballots	
   between	
   1985	
   and	
   1993	
   (Undy	
   et	
   al,	
   1996:	
   p.	
   220).	
   A	
   number	
   of	
  
interviewed	
   trade	
   union	
   officers	
   estimated	
   that	
   turnout	
   averaged	
   20	
   per	
   cent	
   in	
   union	
  
branch-­‐based	
  systems	
  and	
  50	
  per	
  cent	
  when	
  conducted	
  at	
  the	
  workplace.	
  In	
  one	
  district	
  of	
  
the	
  AEU	
  engineering	
  union	
  an	
  average	
  turnout	
  of	
  81	
  per	
  cent	
  was	
  recorded	
  in	
  17	
  workplace	
  
industrial	
  action	
  ballots	
  held	
  during	
  1987,	
  similar	
  to	
  the	
  level	
  achieved	
  by	
  the	
  National	
  Union	
  
of	
   Mineworkers’(NUM)	
   	
   traditional	
   workplace	
   ballots.	
   But	
   in	
   1993	
   workplace	
   ballots	
   for	
  
strike	
  action	
  were	
  banned	
  by	
  the	
  Conservatives	
  and	
  only	
  fully	
  postal	
  balloting	
  was	
  allowed,	
  
with	
   the	
   effect	
   that	
   it	
   reduced	
   the	
   turnout	
   compared	
   to	
   workplace	
   ballots	
   (p.	
   242).	
  
According	
   to	
   the	
   Electoral	
   Reform	
   Balloting	
   Services	
   (ERBS,	
   1994:	
   3)	
   who	
   looked	
   at	
   242	
  
postal	
  ballots	
  in	
  1994,	
  in	
  ballots	
  of	
  over	
  1,000	
  members	
  it	
  fell	
  to	
  approximately	
  44	
  per	
  cent.	
  
In	
  other	
  words,	
  if	
  the	
  concern	
  is	
  simply	
  to	
  increase	
  turnout	
  then	
  workplace	
  ballots	
  would	
  
15	
  
	
  
appear	
   to	
   represent	
   a	
   much	
   better	
   channel	
   than	
   a	
   secret	
   individual	
   postal	
   vote,	
   but	
   of	
  
course	
  democracy	
  and	
  strike	
  ballot	
  legislation	
  is	
  not	
  simply	
  about	
  turnouts.	
  
As	
  for	
  the	
  type	
  of	
  direct	
  union	
  democracy	
  signalled	
  in	
  workplace	
  mass	
  meetings	
  and	
  
show-­‐of-­‐hands	
  strike	
  votes,	
  in	
  the	
  1960s	
  and	
  1970s	
  these	
  were	
  often	
  either	
  held	
  in	
  canteens	
  
or	
   in	
   the	
   car	
   parks	
   outside	
   car	
   factories	
   and	
   other	
   workplaces	
   (Thornett,	
   1987:	
   47-­‐8;	
  
Darlington,	
   1994:	
   234).	
   They	
   were	
   an	
   expression	
   of	
   a	
   collective	
   form	
   of	
   decision	
   making	
  
based	
   on	
   open	
   debate,	
   in	
   an	
   atmosphere	
   of	
   strong,	
   dynamic	
   worker	
   interaction	
   (Cohen,	
  
2006:	
   166-­‐7).	
   The	
   NUM’s	
   method	
   of	
   holding	
   such	
   ballots	
   at	
   the	
   pithead	
   was	
   particularly	
  
attractive,	
   as	
   it	
   gave	
   every	
   union	
   member	
   the	
   right	
   to	
   vote,	
   but	
   under	
   conditions	
   which	
  
encouraged	
   voting	
   by	
   reference	
   to	
   collective	
   rather	
   than	
   merely	
   individual	
   self-­‐interest.	
  
Indeed	
  one	
  commentator	
  has	
  gone	
  so	
  far	
  as	
  to	
  comment:	
  ‘…the	
  use	
  of	
  strike	
  meetings	
  for	
  
reaching	
   strike	
   decisions…is	
   perhaps	
   the	
   clearest	
   expression	
   to	
   be	
   found	
   of	
   industrial	
  
democracy	
  at	
  work’	
  (McFarlane,	
  1981:	
  92-­‐3).	
  	
  
Yet	
   even	
   in	
   their	
   heyday	
   the	
   notion	
   of	
   such	
   mass	
   workplace	
   union	
   meetings	
  
appeared	
  to	
  cut	
  against	
  the	
  grain	
  of	
  society.	
  As	
  Beynon	
  (1973:	
  305)	
  noted,	
  ‘it	
  is	
  anathema	
  to	
  
many	
  people.	
  Few	
  things	
  raise	
  middle	
  class	
  Britain	
  to	
  a	
  greater	
  show	
  of	
  moral	
  outrage	
  than	
  
workers	
  packed	
  into	
  large	
  halls,	
  voting	
  on	
  important	
  issues	
  by	
  a	
  show	
  of	
  hands’.	
  Despite	
  the	
  
caricature	
  of	
  the	
  ‘bad	
  old	
  days	
  of	
  trade	
  union	
  militancy’	
  of	
  the	
  1970s	
  painted	
  by	
  the	
  tabloid	
  
press,	
  in	
  which	
  allegedly	
  there	
  was	
  the	
  potential	
  for	
  ‘intimidation	
  by	
  union	
  firebrands’	
  at	
  
such	
  open	
  mass	
  meetings	
  (Crossman,	
  2014),	
  it	
  was	
  not	
  always	
  the	
  case	
  that	
  militant	
  shop	
  
stewards	
   were	
   able	
   to	
   win	
   support	
   amongst	
   shopfloor	
   members	
   for	
   strike	
  
recommendations;	
  sometimes	
  the	
  decisions	
  made	
  at	
  such	
  meetings	
  involved	
  constraints	
  on	
  
the	
  activities	
  of	
  stewards,	
  with	
  leadership	
  strike	
  calls	
  being	
  rejected	
  (McCarthy,	
  1967:	
  22;	
  
Goodman	
  and	
  Whittingham,	
  1973:	
  191;	
  1999;	
  Batstone	
  et	
  al,	
  1977:	
  92-­‐3;	
  Darlington,	
  2006:	
  
494-­‐497).	
  Conversely	
  although	
  postal	
  ballots	
  have	
  probably	
  reduced	
  industrial	
  militancy	
  by	
  
denying	
  union	
  negotiators	
  the	
  opportunity	
  to	
  call	
  for	
  strike	
  votes	
  at	
  mass	
  meetings	
  in	
  which	
  
appeals	
  for	
  solidarity	
  could	
  potentially	
  more	
  effectively	
  overcome	
  concern	
  with	
  individual	
  
profit	
  and	
  loss,	
  postal	
  ballots	
  have	
  not	
  guaranteed	
  moderation,	
  such	
  that	
  the	
  method	
  and	
  
location	
   of	
   voting	
   has	
   not	
   been	
   a	
   major	
   determinant	
   of	
   outcome	
   (despite	
   its	
   effect	
   on	
  
participation)	
  compared	
  with	
  other	
  contingent	
  factors	
  (McCrystal	
  and	
  Novitz,	
  2012:	
  212).	
  
Moreover	
  there	
  is	
  much	
  justification	
  to	
  the	
  view	
  that	
  workers	
  should	
  have	
  the	
  right	
  
to	
  take	
  decisions	
  at	
  open	
  workplace	
  union	
  meetings,	
  whether	
  this	
  is	
  by	
  a	
  show	
  of	
  hands	
  or	
  
by	
  a	
  secret	
  ballot	
  held	
  after	
  the	
  meeting	
  -­‐	
  potentially	
  in	
  today’s	
  world	
  being	
  facilitated	
  via	
  
online	
   channels	
   after	
   the	
   meeting	
   -­‐	
   with	
   all	
   such	
   elections	
   subjected	
   to	
   independent	
  
scrutiny.	
   It	
   should	
   be	
   noted	
   as	
   a	
   result	
   of	
   the	
   New	
   Labour	
   government’s	
   Statutory	
  
Recognition	
   Procedure,	
   under	
   which	
   unions	
   were	
   given	
   rights	
   with	
   respect	
   to	
   union	
  
recognition,	
  balloting	
  takes	
  place	
  at	
  the	
  workplace,	
  in	
  secret	
  and	
  under	
  the	
  supervision	
  of	
  a	
  
qualified	
  independent	
  person.	
  A	
  similar	
  procedure	
  in	
  the	
  case	
  of	
  industrial	
  action	
  ballots	
  
could	
  be	
  introduced	
  in	
  a	
  fashion	
  that	
  would,	
  to	
  some	
  extent	
  at	
  least,	
  address	
  the	
  problem	
  of	
  
low	
  voter	
  turnouts.	
  
But	
  even	
  if	
  such	
  alternative	
  ways	
  of	
  attempting	
  to	
  increase	
  ballot	
  vote	
  participation	
  
are	
  both	
  justified	
  and,	
  if	
  implemented,	
  likely	
  to	
  succeed,	
  there	
  is	
  nonetheless	
  still	
  a	
  serious	
  
doubt	
   as	
   to	
   whether	
   they	
   would	
   materially	
   increase	
   the	
   turnout	
   sufficient	
   to	
   meet	
   the	
  
Conservatives	
  new	
  ballot	
  thresholds.	
  Even	
  if	
  many	
  unions	
  were	
  able	
  to	
  obtain	
  a	
  50	
  per	
  cent	
  
16	
  
	
  
participation	
  rate,	
  they	
  would	
  still	
  find	
  it	
  very	
  difficult,	
  if	
  not	
  virtually	
  impossible	
  in	
  some	
  
cases,	
  to	
  obtain	
  the	
  necessary	
  40	
  per	
  cent	
  majority	
  vote.	
  Such	
  apparently	
  insurmountable	
  
dilemmas	
  raise	
  the	
  more	
  underlying	
  question	
  of	
  why	
  exactly	
  turnouts	
  in	
  strike	
  ballots	
  are	
  not	
  
higher,	
   and	
   whether	
   there	
   are	
   broader	
   problems	
   at	
   stake	
   for	
   the	
   unions	
   -­‐	
   than	
   merely	
  
attempting	
  to	
  ameliorate	
  through	
  technical	
  means	
  the	
  method	
  and	
  location	
  of	
  voting	
  –	
  in	
  
confronting	
  the	
  Conservative’s	
  proposed	
  stringent	
  legislation?	
  
	
  
Other	
  potential	
  factors	
  influencing	
  participation	
  rates	
  
How	
   can	
   we	
   explain	
   strike	
   ballot	
   participation	
   rates?	
   Why	
   do	
   some	
   union	
   members	
   not	
  
vote?	
  What	
  are	
  the	
  different	
  enhancing	
  or	
  inhibiting	
  factors	
  affecting	
  participation?	
  There	
  
are	
  many	
  potentially	
  related	
  and	
  complex	
  factors	
  that	
  could	
  explain	
  this.	
  As	
  we	
  have	
  seen,	
  if	
  
unions	
   did	
   not	
   have	
   to	
   jump	
   through	
   the	
   hoop	
   of	
   a	
   bureaucratic	
   and	
   atomising	
   secret	
  
individual	
   postal	
   balloting	
   process,	
   away	
   from	
   the	
   collectivism	
   and	
   solidarity	
   of	
   the	
  
workplace,	
  it	
  is	
  likely	
  there	
  would	
  be	
  a	
  higher	
  level	
  of	
  participation.	
  But	
  beyond	
  the	
  balloting	
  
process,	
   what	
   other	
   factors	
   might	
   come	
   into	
   play	
   to	
   explain	
   why	
   some	
   union	
   members	
  
participate	
  and	
  others	
  abstain?	
  
The	
  apparent	
  apathy	
  of	
  some	
  union	
  members	
  in	
  not	
  voting	
  might	
  be	
  caused	
  by	
  the	
  
fact	
  they	
  do	
  not	
  think	
  the	
  issue	
  is	
  important	
  enough	
  to	
  them,	
  or	
  because	
  they	
  have	
  busy	
  
working	
   lives,	
   families	
   to	
   care	
   for,	
   and	
   a	
   social	
   life,	
   and	
   they	
   just	
   do	
   not	
   feel	
   motivated	
  
enough	
  to	
  complete	
  a	
  voting	
  paper	
  and	
  then	
  take	
  the	
  initiative	
  to	
  post	
  it.	
  But	
  as	
  Paul	
  Nowak	
  
(2011),	
   deputy	
   TUC	
   general	
   secretary,	
   has	
   suggested,	
   lack	
   of	
   participation	
   may	
   also	
   be	
  
because	
  union	
  members	
  genuinely	
  can’t	
  make	
  up	
  their	
  mind,	
  and	
  so	
  decide	
  to	
  sit	
  out	
  the	
  
vote	
  to	
  see	
  what	
  others	
  think;	
  or	
  whilst	
  they	
  may	
  be	
  very	
  sympathetic	
  to	
  the	
  union	
  cause,	
  
they	
  hold	
  back	
  from	
  voting	
  on	
  the	
  assumption	
  that	
  strike	
  action	
  is	
  a	
  ‘big	
  deal’	
  and	
  will	
  cost	
  
them	
   lost	
   wages;	
   or	
   they	
   may	
   balance	
   the	
   cost	
   of	
   the	
   substantive	
   issue	
   at	
   stake	
   –	
   for	
  
example,	
   with	
   government	
   proposals	
   on	
   pensions	
   meaning	
   they	
   would	
   pay	
   more,	
   work	
  
longer,	
  and	
  get	
  less	
  -­‐	
  with	
  an	
  understandable	
  reluctance	
  to	
  do	
  anything	
  that	
  could	
  impact	
  on	
  
their	
  patients,	
  pupils	
  or	
  members	
  of	
  the	
  public	
  who	
  rely	
  on	
  them,	
  and	
  therefore	
  they	
  defer	
  
their	
  decision	
  in	
  the	
  hope	
  that	
  an	
  agreed	
  compromise	
  settlement	
  might	
  be	
  reached.	
  	
  
It	
  should	
  be	
  noted	
  when	
  proposals	
  for	
  strikes	
  were	
  voted	
  for	
  in	
  mass	
  meetings	
  in	
  
factory	
   canteens	
   or	
   car	
   parks	
   in	
   the	
   strike-­‐prone	
   days	
   of	
   the	
   1970s,	
   anecdotal	
   evidence	
  
suggests	
   few	
   people	
   abstained	
   (Thornett,	
   1987).	
   Of	
   course,	
   in	
   large	
   part	
   this	
   may	
   have	
  
reflected	
   a	
   more	
   confident	
   belief	
   in	
   the	
   strength	
   of	
   unions	
   and	
   their	
   prospects	
   of	
   strike	
  
success.	
   Nonetheless,	
   even	
   during	
   these	
   times,	
   some	
   people	
   in	
   mass	
   meetings	
   were	
   no	
  
doubt	
  more	
  hesitant	
  to	
  put	
  their	
  hands	
  up	
  than	
  others.	
  When	
  it	
  comes	
  to	
  today’s	
  individual	
  
secret	
  postal	
  ballots,	
  it	
  seems	
  reasonable	
  to	
  assume	
  that	
  at	
  least	
  a	
  significant	
  proportion	
  of	
  
workers	
  do	
  not	
  necessarily	
  abstain	
  because	
  they	
  do	
  not	
  care	
  about	
  the	
  issues	
  at	
  stake,	
  are	
  
opposed	
  to	
  strike	
  action,	
  or	
  are	
  opposed	
  to	
  the	
  potential	
  loss	
  of	
  wages	
  involved	
  in	
  taking	
  
action,	
  but	
  because	
  they	
  are	
  unsure	
  whether	
  striking	
  is	
  likely	
  to	
  succeed	
  –	
  otherwise,	
  if	
  they	
  
were	
   sure,	
   they	
   would	
   probably	
   vote	
   ‘no’	
   straight	
   off.	
   Instead,	
   they	
   often	
   feel	
   uncertain	
  
about	
  whether	
  the	
  union,	
  or	
  the	
  workforce,	
  is	
  strong	
  and	
  determined	
  enough	
  to	
  make	
  the	
  
strike	
  effective	
  and	
  likely	
  to	
  succeed.	
  In	
  the	
  past,	
  at	
  mass	
  meetings,	
  those	
  unsure	
  workers	
  
might	
  have	
  decided	
  by	
  observing	
  others	
  and,	
  if	
  there	
  was	
  a	
  large	
  enough	
  body	
  of	
  workers	
  
putting	
   their	
   hands	
   up	
   for	
   a	
   strike	
   straight	
   away,	
   then	
   casting	
   their	
   vote	
   in	
   favour	
  
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington
Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington

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Trade union bill analysis: Professor Ralph Darlington

  • 1.                   The  Conservative  Government’s   Proposed  Strike  Ballot  Thresholds:   The  Challenge  to  the  Trade  Unions           Salford  Business  School     Research  Working  Paper     August  2015       Professor  Ralph  Darlington     Salford  Business  School,  University  of  Salford,     and  Dr  John  Dobson     Riga  International  College  of  Economics  and  Business  Administration     Corresponding  author:  Professor  Ralph  Darlington,  Salford  Business  School,  University  of   Salford,  Salford  M5  4WT;  r.r.darlington@salford.ac.uk;  0161-­‐295-­‐5456                      
  • 2.     Ralph   Darlington   is   Professor   of   Employment   Relations   at   the   University   of   Salford.   His   research   is   concerned   with   the   dynamics   of   trade   union   organisation,   activity   and   consciousness   in   Britain   and   internationally   within   both   contemporary   and   historical   settings.  He  is  author  of  The  Dynamics  of  Workplace  Unionism  (Mansell,  1994)  and  Radical   Unionism  (Haymarket,  2013);  co-­‐author  of  Glorious  Summer:  Class  Struggle  in  Britain,  1972,   (Bookmarks,   2001);   and   editor   of   What’s   the   Point   of   Industrial   Relations?   In   Defence   of   Critical  Social  Science  (BUIRA,  2009).  He  is  an  executive  member  of  the  British  Universities   Industrial   Relations   Association   and   secretary   of   the   Manchester   Industrial   Relations   Society.     John   Dobson   has   published   widely   on   the   operation   of   labour   markets   in   Central   and   Eastern   Europe   and   is   currently   Associated   Professor   at   Riga   International   College   of   Economics   and   Business   Administration,   Latvia.   He   was   previously   a   senior   lecturer   in   Industrial   Relations   at   the   University   of   Salford,   where   he   was   Head   of   the   School   of   Management   (2002-­‐6)   and   President   of   the   Salford   Branch   of   the   University   and   College   Union  (UCU)  from  2007-­‐9.  He  also  served  on  the  UCU  National  Executive  from  2009-­‐11.                                      
  • 3.               CONTENTS     Abstract  and  Summary  of  Key  Findings   Introduction   Justification  and  motivation   Illogical  implications     Competing  models  of  union  democracy   Other  potential  factors  influencing  participation  rates   Evidence  from  database   Three  enabling  features  of  participation   Union  responses   References                        
  • 4. 1     Abstract  and  Summary  of  Key  Findings   Persistent   disruptive   bouts   of   strike   action   in   recent   years   by   teachers,   civil   servants,   firefighters,  and  rail  and  London  Underground  workers  amongst  others,  sometimes  called   with  only  a  small  proportion  of  union  members  voting  in  favour  of  strike  action,  has  provided   the   backcloth   to   the   publication   on   15   July   of   a   Trade   Union   Bill   by   the   newly   elected   majority  Conservative  government.  The  Bill  promises  (amongst  a  variety  of  other  measures)   the   most   sweeping   and   radical   tightening   of   the   rules   on   industrial   action   seen   since   the   Thatcher   era   of   the   1980s   with   a   minimum   50   per   cent   ballot   participation   threshold   alongside  a  requirement  for  unions  in  ‘important  public  services’  to  obtain  a  minimum  40  per   cent  majority  of  all  those  eligible  to  vote.  It  would  have  a  devastating  effect  on  many  unions’   ability  to  take  lawful  industrial  action.     This  Salford  Business  School  Research  Paper  explores  the  following  research  questions:   • To  what  extent  are  the  Conservatives  justified  in  pointing  to  a  ‘democratic  deficit’  in   which   a   majority   of   indifferent   union   members   have   surrendered   control   over   whether  to  strike  to  a  committed  minority?     • How  can  we  explain  strike  ballot  participation  rates?  Why  do  some  union  members   not  vote?     • To  what  extent  does  the  secret  individual  postal  balloting  process  affect  the  level  of   participation?     • What  other  factors  might  potentially  influence  whether  union  members  vote  or  not?     • How  are  the  unions  likely  to  fare  in  the  face  of  the  Conservative  government’s  two   new  balloting  thresholds?   To   answer   such   questions   the   paper   first   explores   the   justification   and   underlying   motivation   for   the   introduction   of   new   tougher   strike   ballot   laws,   and   the   illogical   implications  of  such  provisions  which  do  not  apply  to  any  other  ballots.  After  considering   some   alternative   ways   to   potentially   increase   ballot   turnouts   advocated   by   the   TUC   and   some  unions,  notably  online  voting,  the  paper  questions  whether  the  implementation  of  such   an  essentially  technical  and  procedural  measure  would  increase  balloting  turn-­‐outs  to  meet   the  Conservatives’  threshold  levels.     Drawing  on  a  range  of  existing  academic  and  practitioner  literature  over  a  number  of   years,  it  compares  the  restrictive  parliamentary  model  of  democracy  underlying  the  secret   individual   postal   balloting   process,   compared   with   a   participatory   model   of   democracy   based  on  collective  decision  making  at  workplace  union  meetings.     It   proceeds   to   identify   the   multi-­‐dimensional   enabling/inhibiting   factors   for   strike   ballot   participation,   including   both   general   factors   (economic/employment   restructuring,   employment  legislation,  strike  defeats  and  ‘demonstration  effect’,  and  electoral  and  political   disengagement  within  society  more  generally)  as  well  as  specific  factors  (size  and  nature  of   unions,   nature   of   the   workforce,   management   structures   and   behaviour,   role   of   national   trade  union  leadership,  and  health  of  workplace  union  organisation.    
  • 5. 2     In  order  to  examine  the  potential  effects  of  the  proposed  legislation,  the  paper  then   retrospectively  applies  it  to  previously  held  ballots  by  analysing  a  database  the  authors  have   compiled   of   162   industrial   action   ballots,   158   of   which   are   strike   ballots,   involving   28   different  trade  unions  (including  BFAWU,  CWU,  FBU,  NUT,  RMT,  UCW,  Unison  and  Unite)   over   the   period   1997-­‐2015.   Although   the   database   confirms   Electoral   Reform   Services   statistics   which   show   unions   have   generally   been   overwhelmingly   successful   in   winning   majority  ‘yes’  votes  in  favour  of  strike  action  under  the  existing  legislation,  it  also  provides   evidence   to   suggest   they   have   often   failed   to   achieve   the   Tories’   proposed   50   per   cent   participation  threshold:   • Only  85  of  the  158  strike  ballots  covered  by  the  database  reached  the  50  per  cent   target,  and  the  number  of  workers  who  failed  to  reach  the  target  was  completely   disproportionate  to  those  that  did  –  while  444,000  workers  could  have  taken  strike   action  because  they  had  a  turnout  rate  of  over  50  per  cent,  3.3  million  workers  would   have  been  prevented  from  going  on  strike.  Even  if  you  take  out  the  large-­‐scale  2011   public   sector   strikes,   it   still   means   880,000   workers   would,   under   the   proposed   legislation,  no  longer  have  been  able  to  go  on  strike.     As  a  result  some  major  national  strikes  would  have  been  deprived  of  legal  protection   under  the  proposed  legislation,  especially  those  relating  to  national  bargaining  in  the  public   sector.   Even  when  unions  have  succeeded  in  reaching  the  50  per  cent  turnout,  some  would   still  fail  to  obtain  the  40  per  cent  majority  threshold  of  those  eligible  to  vote,  although  these   would   not   necessarily   be   affected   by   the   proposed   legislation   which   only   applies   to   the   specified  ‘important  public  services’.     • Out  of  90  strike  ballots  in  the  ‘important  public  services’  covered  by  the  database,  55   of  them  produced  turnouts  in  which  more  than  40  per  cent  of  the  electorate  voted   ‘yes’,  such  that  the  proposed  legislation  would  have  reduced  the  number  of  strikes  in   these  areas  by  nearly  40  per  cent.     However  there  are  important  differences  by  sector:   • The  proposed  legislation  would  have  had  no  effect  on  the  Fire  Service  because  all  11   strike   ballots   cleared   the   40   per   cent   threshold   with   an   average   of   54   per   cent   of   balloted  workers  supporting  strike  action.     • The  picture  is  completely  different  in  Health  where  only  2  of  the  5  national  strikes   would  have  cleared  the  40  per  cent  threshold.  Of  those  that  failed  to  meet  the  40  per   cent,  only  20  per  cent  of  eligible  voters  supported  the  action.  It  is  the  small  specialist   unions  that  achieved  the  highest  turnout  and  high  support  for  strike  action.     • The  picture  in  education  is  more  nuanced;  only  19  of  the  29  strike  ballots  would  have   been  able  to  go  ahead,  but  while  every  ballot  conducted  in  an  individual  school  would   have  passed  the  40  per  cent  threshold,  only  two  national  strikes  did  so  and  neither  of   these  involved  the  main  teaching  unions.    
  • 6. 3     • In   transport,   only   23   of   the   44   strikes   cleared   the   40   per   cent   threshold,   so   the   proposed  legislation  would  have  prevented  half  of  transport  strikes.  However,  again   there  was  variation,  for  example,  while  the  BA  cabin  crew  ballots  easily  cleared  the   40  per  cent  hurdle,  a  recent  Greater  London  bus  workers  ballot  would  not,  and  while   the  proposed  legislation  would  have  little  effect  on  strike  ballots  in  the  railway  sector   it  would  have  prevented  most  strikes  on  London  Underground.     • The   one   strike   ballot   that   could   be   regarded   as   border   security   would   have   been   prevented  by  the  new  legislation.     On   the   basis   of   the   database   evidence   available,   while   the   50   per   cent   threshold   would  dramatically  reduce  the  number  of  legally  protected  strikes,  the  introduction  of  an   additional   40   per   cent   threshold   for   the   ‘important   public   services’   would   have   very   little   further  effect.  Nonetheless,  overall  many  unions  will  find  the  legislation  will  make  it  very   difficult  for  them  to  mount  officially  sanctioned  strikes  as  a  means  of  challenging  employers   in   national   negotiations   and   in   response   to   government-­‐initiated   austerity   measures,   especially  those  relating  to  national  bargaining  in  the  public  sector.     The   paper   identifies   some   important   contributory   factors   to   more   positive   voting   participation  rates:   • There  is  a  clear  overall  tendency  for  workplace,  area  or  single  employer  ballots  to   obtain  ‘higher’  turnouts  and  national  ballots  to  obtain  ‘lower’  turnouts.     • Unions  with  members  who  have  close  occupational  identities  and  solidaristic  loyalties   also   appear   to   often   be   able   to   generate   relatively   higher   strike   ballot   votes   than   more  general  unions.     • There  is  evidence  the  role  of  union  leadership  -­‐  specifically  the  influence  of  left-­‐wing   leadership  -­‐  can  also  be  a  positive  enabling  factor.   The   paper   concludes   by   reflecting   on   the   unions’   potential   response   to   the   forthcoming  new  legislation,  including  official  union  opposition,  the  use  of  more  strategic   balloting  of  selective  groups  of  workers  confident  of  achieving  the  thresholds,    ‘leverage’  and   ‘citizen  bargaining’,  and  unofficial  and  ‘wildcat’  strike  action.                
  • 7. 4     The  Conservative  Government’s  Proposed  Strike  Ballot  Thresholds:   The  Challenge  to  the  Trade  Unions     Introduction   Even  though  strike  levels  in  the  UK  have  fallen  to  their  lowest  ever  historical  levels,  the  far   reaching  effects  of  persistent  bouts  of  strike  action  in  recent  years  (notably  within  the  public   sector),   sometimes   called   with   only   a   small   proportion   of   union   members   voting,   has   provided   the   backcloth   to   the   publication   on   15   July   of   a   Trade   Union   Bill   by   the   newly   elected  majority  Conservative  government.  National  strikes  by  teachers,  civil  servants,  and   firefighters,  a  threatened  national  strike  on  Network  Rail,  and  the  complete  shutdown  of  the   London   Underground   network   by   four   unions   engaging   in   24-­‐hour   strike   action,   have   all   served   to   illustrate   the   potential   disruptive   impact   of   strike   action   on   the   wider   public.   Hence  the  government’s  attempt  to  rush  into  law  the  most  sweeping  and  radical  tightening   of  the  rules  on  industrial  action  seen  since  the  Thatcher  era  of  the  1980s  with  new  voting   thresholds  in  trade  union  strike  ballots,1  as  well  as  a  variety  of  other  restrictive  measures   beyond   the   remit   of   this   paper.2   The   legislation   proposes   enormous   obstacles   to   unions’   ability   to   strike   and   may   produce   the   biggest   showdown   over   industrial   relations   for   a   generation.     Between   1980   and   1993,   a   series   of   Conservative   laws   made   it   more   difficult   for   unions   to   take   strike   action   and   remain   within   the   law,   with   specific   measures   requiring   unions  to  organise  secret  postal  ballots  in  respect  of  industrial  action  contained  within  the   Trade   Union   Act   (1984),   Employment   Act   (1988)   and   associated   regulations   and   Code   of   Practice  (Undy  and  Martin,  1984),  which  the  New  Labour  governments  during  1997-­‐2010   and  the  Conservative/Liberal  Democrat  coalition  government  of  2010-­‐15  left  on  the  statue   book.   As   a   result   of   such   changes,   the   UK   laws   on   industrial   action   ballots   are   widely   regarded  as  some  of  the  strictest  in  Europe;  even  though  making  comparisons  with  other                                                                                                                             1  While  strictly  speaking  the  legislation  proposed  refers  to  ‘industrial  action’  and  thereby  embraces  both  strikes   as   well   as   action   short   of   a   strike,   this   paper   will   concentrate   attention   and   refer   from   here   on   to   ‘strike   ballots’.   2  This  paper  concentrates  purely  on  the  strike  balloting  thresholds,  but  amongst  other  measures  included  are:   the  removal  of  the  ban  (in  place  since  1973)  on  using  agency  workers  to  cover  for  striking  workers;  a  new   requirement  for  14  days’  notice  (instead  of  the  current  7  days)  of  planned  strike  dates;  a  time  limit  of  4  months   after  the  date  of  each  ballot  to  prevent  unions  undertaking  action  based  on  historic  strike  ballots  and  to  make   it  harder  to  engage  in  rolling  strike  action;  making  it  an  offence  for  trade  unions  not  to  supervise  picketing   arrangements,  with  a  named  individual  required  to  be  available  to  ensure  union  members  comply  with  an   existing   Code   of   Practice   that   sets   a   maximum   number   of   only   six   pickets   and   requires   only   peaceful   persuasion   (rather   than   ‘intimidation’)   of   others   not   to   work;   moves   to   force   unions   to   make   members’   contributions   to   their   political   fund   an   ‘opt-­‐in’   arrangement   (rather   than   as   currently   ‘opt-­‐out’),   to   be   confirmed  every  5  years,  in  an  effort  to  reduce  the  ability  of  trade  unions  to  donate  money  to  the  Labour  Party   or  any  other  party,  as  well  as  a  wide  range  of  other  non-­‐party  political  activities;  regulations  requiring  public   authorities   to   publish   detailed   information   on   union   reps   employed   by   them   who   have   to   time-­‐off   work   (‘facility  time’)  to  carry  out  union  duties  and  activities,  in  a  bid  to  encourage  employers  to  set  a  limit  on  the   proportion  of  working  time  taken  and  the  total  amount  of  money  spent  on  such  facility  time;  measures  to   increase   the   remit   and   powers   of   the   Certification   Officer   to   investigate   alleged   breaches   of   statutory   provisions  and  to  impose  financial  penalties  on  trade  unions.  
  • 8. 5     countries  is  not  straightforward,  in  some  countries  unions  are  not  required  to  hold  a  ballot   to  call  industrial  action,  and  of  those  that  do,  few  specify  a  turnout  threshold;  most  require   a  simple  majority  to  back  action.   The  new  Conservative  majority  government’s  proposed  legislation  aimed  at  further   tightening   up   such   balloting   regulations   contains   two   aspects   with   respect   to   strike   mandates.  First,  all  unions  will  have  to  persuade  a  minimum  of  50  per  cent  of  their  members   eligible   to   vote   to   participate   in   any   strike   ballot   in   order   for   it   to   be   lawful   (currently   balloting  rules  do  not  require  any  specific  level  of  participation  by  union  members).  Thus  in   a  strike  ballot  of  1,000  eligible  union  members  at  least  500  would  have  to  participate;  a   participation   rate   of   499   members   would   be   invalid   on   the   basis   of   being   less   than   the   required  50  per  cent  threshold.  The  PCS  civil  servants’  union,  which  frequently  calls  strikes   amongst   its   members,   has   never   achieved   a   50   per   cent   turnout   on   a   national   ballot   in   recent  years;  neither  on  a  national  ballot  has  the  NUT  teachers’  union.   Secondly,   in   six   specified   so-­‐called   ‘important   public   services’   –   health   services,   education   of   those   aged   under   17,   fire   services,   transport   services,   border   security,   and   nuclear  decommissioning  including  the  management  of  radioactive  waste  and  spent  fuel  –   an  additional  threshold  will  have  to  be  met.  As  well  as  obtaining  the  50  per  cent  minimum   turnout,  at  least  40  per  cent  of  those  eligible  to  vote  must  support  strike  action  for  it  to  be   lawful  (ballots  currently  require  a  simple  majority  to  back  action).3  Thus  in  a  strike  ballot  of   1,000  eligible  union  members  (embracing  such  workers  as  firefighters,  nurses,  teachers,  or   railways  and  tube  workers)  at  least  400  would  have  to  back  strike  action.  A  vote  by  399   members  in  favour  of  strike  action  and  no  votes  against  (in  other  words,  a  100  per  cent   majority  of  those  who  voted)  would  be  regarded  as  invalid  on  the  basis  of  being  less  than   the  required  40  per  cent  majority  threshold.  As  TUC  general  secretary  Frances  O’Grady  has   claimed:  ‘The  Conservative  Party  is  not  just  proposing  a  few  more  bureaucratic  obstacles   that  will  make  life  a  bit  more  difficult  for  trade  unions...  they  would  effectively  ban  strikes  by   the  back  door….[introducing  a]  threshold  no  other  ballot  in  Britain  is  required  to  meet  and   that  many  would  fail….effectively  end[ing]  the  right  to  strike  in  the  public  sector’  (BBC  News,   7  September,  2014).   The  clamour  to  introduce  higher  strike  ballot  thresholds  gathered  pace  in  June  2010   with  a  Confederation  of  British  Industry  report  entitled  Making  Britain  the  Place  to  Work   (CBI,  2010)  which  aimed  to  set  the  agenda  for  the  new  coalition  government’s  labour  policy.   The  CBI  argued  that  the  individual  and  collective  rights  introduced  under  New  Labour  had   made  the  British  economy  uncompetitive  in  a  changed  global  economy.  Alongside  a  raft  of   measures  to  roll  back  the  new  employment  rights,  the  CBI  proposed  the  introduction  of  new   requirements  for  a  minimum  threshold  of  40  per  cent  support  among  members  for  strike   action.   The   right-­‐wing   press   (in   particular   the   Express   and   Times   in   their   editorials)   enthusiastically  took  up  the  campaign.  Mayor  of  London,  Boris  Johnson,  following  clashes   with  the  RMT  union  over  a  London  Underground  strike  organised  on  the  basis  of  a  relatively   low  ballot  turnout,  took  the  CBI  proposals  to  the  Conservative  Party  conference,  focusing  in   particular  on  the  restriction  on  the  right  to  strike  which  he  argued  was  needed  in  order  to   avoid  disruption  to  the  Olympic  Games  in  2012  (Daily  Telegraph,  4  October  2010).  Similar                                                                                                                             3   This   is   the   same   threshold   that   applies   in   ballots   for   union   recognition   under   the   statutory   recognition   procedure).  
  • 9. 6     arguments   were   marshalled   in   a   Policy   Exchange   think-­‐tank   report   (2010)   and   Greater   London  Authority  Conservatives  Report  on  the  London  Underground  (Tracey,  2013).   The   ‘democratic   legitimacy’   of   strike   mandates   and   the   debate   about   minimum   turnouts   in   union   ballots   was   subsequently   brought   into   sharp   relief   following   alleged   derisory  voting  levels  in  ballots  by  a  number  of  other  public  sector  workers.  For  example,   when  PCS  threatened  strike  action  over  cuts  to  jobs  and  a  pay  freeze  by  border  agency  and   passport  guards  on  the  eve  of  the  2012  Olympics  on  the  basis  of  a  20  per  cent  ballot  turnout   of   members   (on   a   57.2   per   cent   vote   in   favour),   Dominic   Raab,   Conservative   MP,   said:   ‘These   reckless   and   damaging   strikes   strengthen   the   case   for   a   voting   threshold,   so   the   militant  minority  can’t  hold  the  hardworking  majority  to  ransom.  It  can’t  be  right  that  union   bosses  can  paralyse  vital  infrastructure  and  humiliate  the  nation  on  a  malicious  whim,  when   just  11  per  cent  of  their  members  support  strike  action’  (Daily  Telegraph,  19  July  2012).     With  such  considerations  in  mind,  this  paper  seeks  to  explore  the  following  research   questions:   • To  what  extent  are  the  Conservatives  justified  in  pointing  to  a  ‘democratic  deficit’  in   which   a   majority   of   indifferent   union   members   have   surrendered   control   over   whether  to  strike  to  a  committed  minority?     • How  can  we  explain  strike  ballot  participation  rates?  Why  do  some  union  members   not  vote?     • To  what  extent  does  the  secret  individual  postal  balloting  process  affect  the  level  of   participation?     • What  other  factors  might  potentially  influence  whether  union  members  vote  or  not?     • How  are  the  unions  likely  to  fare  in  the  face  of  the  Conservative  government’s  two   new  balloting  thresholds?   To  answer  such  questions  the  paper  first  explores  the  justification  and  underlying   motivation   for   the   introduction   of   new   tougher   strike   ballot   laws,   and   the   illogical   implications  of  such  provisions  which  do  not  apply  to  any  other  ballots.  After  considering   some   alternative   ways   to   potentially   increase   ballot   turnouts   advocated   by   the   TUC   and   some   unions,   notably   online   voting,   the   paper   questions   whether   the   implementation   of   such  an  essentially  technical  and  procedural  measure  would  increase  balloting  turn-­‐outs  to   meet   the   Conservatives’   threshold   levels.   Drawing   on   a   range   of   existing   academic   and   practitioner  literature  over  a  number  of  years  (including  Fairbrother,  1984;  Fredman,  1992;   Martin   et   al,   1991;   1995;   Simpson,   2002;   Undy   and   Martin,   1984;   Undy   et   al,   1996),   it   compares  the  restrictive  parliamentary  model  of  democracy  underlying  the  secret  individual   postal   balloting   process,   compared   with   a   participatory   model   of   democracy   based   on   collective  decision  making  at  workplace  union  meetings.     It   proceeds   to   identify   the   multi-­‐dimensional   enabling/inhibiting   factors   for   strike   ballot   participation,   including   both   general   factors   (economic/employment   restructuring,   employment   legislation,   strike   defeats   and   ‘demonstration   effect’,   and   electoral   and   political  disengagement  within  society  more  generally)  as  well  as  specific  factors  (size  and  
  • 10. 7     nature  of  unions,  nature  of  the  workforce,  management  structures  and  behaviour,  role  of   national  trade  union  leadership,  and  health  of  workplace  union  organisation.     In  order  to  examine  the  potential  effects  of  the  proposed  legislation,  the  paper  then   retrospectively  applies  it  to  previously  held  ballots  by  analysing  a  database  the  authors  have   compiled   of   162   industrial   action   ballots,   158   of   which   are   strike   ballots,   involving   28   different  trade  unions  (including  BFAWU,  CWU,  FBU,  NUT,  RMT,  UCW,  Unison  and  Unite)   over   the   period   1997-­‐2015.   Although   our   database   confirms   Electoral   Reform   Services   statistics   which   show   unions   have   generally   been   overwhelmingly   successful   in   winning   majority  ‘yes’  votes  in  favour  of  strike  action  under  the  existing  legislation,  it  also  provides   evidence   to   suggest   they   have   often   failed   to   achieve   the   Tories’   proposed   50   per   cent   participation  threshold,  and  that  even  when  they  have  done  so,  some  unions  have  still  failed   to   obtain   the   40   per   cent   majority   threshold   of   those   eligible   to   vote,   albeit   there   are   significant  variations  across  different  sectors,  unions  and  ballots.  While  the  introduction  of   an   additional   40   per   cent   threshold   for   the   ‘important   public   services’   would   have   little   further  effect,  many  unions  will  clearly  find  the  legislation  will  make  it  very  difficult  for  them   to   mount   officially   sanctioned   strikes   as   a   means   of   challenging   employers   in   national   collective  bargaining  negotiations  and  government-­‐initiated  austerity  measures.  The  paper   identifies  some  important  contributory  factors  to  more  positive  voting  figures,  including  the   size   and   location   of   the   numbers   of   workers   being   balloted   (local   v   national);   degree   of   occupational   identity   and   solidaristic   loyalty;   and   the   link   between   left-­‐wing   union   leadership,   collective   mobilisation   and   strike   ballot   participation   rates.   It   concludes   by   reflecting  on  the  unions’  potential  response  to  the  forthcoming  new  legislation.     Justification  and  motivation   Not  surprisingly  many  business  leaders  have  welcomed  the  prospect  of  another  round  of   legislation  on  strike  action  with  its  introduction  of  ballot  participation  thresholds,  concurring   with   the   Conservatives   that   it   would   stop   strike   action   on   the   basis   of   ballots   that   only   involve  a  minority  of  members,  thereby  increasing  the  democratic  legitimacy  of  action  taken   by   unions.   As   the   new   Conservative   government’s   Business   Secretary,   Sajid   Javid,   has   claimed:  ‘We’ve  seen…in  the  last  five  years,  strike  action  that  took  place  where  perhaps  only   10  per  cent  to  15  per  cent  of  the  members  of  that  profession  actually  voted  for  it,  and  that’s   not  right,  it’s  unfair’  (BBC  News,  12  May  2015).  It  has  been  claimed  that  of  the  119  major   ballots  for  industrial  action  between  August  2010  and  December  2014,  nearly  three  quarters   would  have  been  invalid  under  the  proposed  rules,  with  strikes  in  some  cases  going  ahead   with  the  support  of  as  few  as  one  in  10  workers  (Daily  Mail,  12  May  2015).4   In  addition,  business  leaders  have  welcomed  the  Conservative’s  plans  to  introduce  a   second  majority  vote  threshold  in  ‘important’  public  services,  on  the  basis  that  strike  action   in  these  areas  can  have  far-­‐reaching  adverse  effects  on  a  wide  range  of  third  parties  who   have  no  association  with  the  dispute,  with  a  strike  in  health  impacting  on  patients,  a  strike   in   teaching   affecting   parents   and   a   transport   strike   affecting   commuters   and   businesses   (DBIS,   2015a).   Thus   while   Simon   Walker,   director-­‐general   of   the   Institute   of   Directors,   acknowledges  the  right  to  strike  is  a  ‘fundamental  part  of  our  democracy’,  has  argued  ‘that                                                                                                                             4  It  should  be  noted  the  source  of  these  figures  is  unstated  and  is  unknown  to  the  authors.  
  • 11. 8     does  not  mean  public  sector  unions  should  be  able  to  bring  mass  disruption  to  commuters,   parents   and   people   who   need   public   services   on   the   basis   of   …very   small   turnouts’   (Financial   Times,   10   January   2015).   Likewise   John   Longworth,   director-­‐general   of   the   Chambers   of   Commerce,   has   commented:   ‘When   it   comes   to   transport,   education   and   health,  which  individuals  and  business  depend  on,  the  right  to  strike  must  only  be  exercised   with   the   greatest   restraint.   So   higher   standards   should   apply   when   a   strike   would   put   people  at  risk  or  affect  the  ability  of  large  numbers  of  their  fellow  citizens  to  earn  a  living’   (Financial   Times,   10   January   2015).   As   Sajid   Javid   has   made   clear,   ‘by   increasing   the   thresholds  it  will  certainly  increase  the  hurdles  that  need  to  be  crossed’,  and  at  the  same   time  tackle  the  ‘disproportionate  impact  of  strikes’  in  these  areas  (BBC  News,  12  May  2015).   In   the   process   the   proposals   are   seen   as   a   ‘commonsensical   attempt   to   prevent   unrepresentative,   highly-­‐politicised   activists   from   hijacking   unenthusiastic   workforces’   on   the  basis  ‘there  has  always  been  a  gulf  between  union  leaders  and  their  membership…this  is   the  government’s  chance  to  isolate  and  discredit  the  headbangers’  (Daily  Telegraph,  13  May   2015).   Katja   Hall,   CBI   deputy   director-­‐general,   has   welcomed   the   reforms   to   ‘outdated   industrial   relations   laws’   (Guardian,   15   July   2015),   with   the   introduction   of   balloting   thresholds  ‘an  important,  but  fair,  step  to  rebalance  the  interest  of  employers,  employees,   the  public  and  the  rights  of  trade  unions’  (Daily  Mail,  10  January  2015).  By  contrast  the  TUC   have  claimed,  imposing  such  minimum  turnouts  would  leave  unions  with  ‘about  as  much   power  as  Oliver  Twist  when  he  asked  for  more’  (Guardian,  12  May  2015).  Certainly,  as  a   recent  International  Labour  Organisation  report  (ILO,  2015)  has  reiterated,  the  right  to  strike   is  a  fundamental  right  to  free  association.  But  it  is  not  simply  a  right  to  come  together  as  a   discussion  group  or  to  advocate  an  idea  or  a  cause;  it  is  the  right  to  act  in  concert  as  much  as   it  is  to  combine.  With  the  social  and  economic  power  of  employers  much  greater  than  that   of  the  individual  worker,  the  right  to  strike  is  a  necessary  collective  means  to  redress  the   imbalance   of   the   employer/employee   relationship   (Kahn   Freund   and   Hepple,   1972;   McFarlane,  1981;  Wedderburn,  1995).       From   this   perspective,   the   government’s   legislation   would   effectively   undermine   collective  bargaining  by  removing  the  implicit  strike  threat  from  the  union  side.  Such  a  shift   in  the  balance  of  power  away  from  ordinary  workers  would  further  undermine  the  pay  and   conditions  of  workers,  exacerbate  the  growing  gulf  between  wages  and  the  cost  of  living,   increase   inequality,   and   destroy   long-­‐established   workplace   rights   introduced   to   protect   employees  from  exploitation  (Labour  Research,  2014;  Centre  for  Social  and  Labour  Studies,   2015).   Ironically,   although   Prime   Minister   David   Cameron   has   declared   he   wants   the   Conservatives   to   be   the   ‘party   of   working   people’   (Daily   Telegraph,   12   May   2015),   he   is   committed  to  making  it  harder  for  those  people  to  organise  themselves  in  a  trade  union.   In   some   respects,   the   pledge   to   introduce   further   restrictive   regulation   of   strike   balloting  might  seem  ironical  given  that,  according  to  the  three  different  main  indicators  of   strike   activity   in   the   UK   (number   of   strikes,   number   of   workers   involved,   and   number   of   strike  days  lost),  strike  activity  has  for  the  last  20  years  remained  at  historically  low  levels.  Of   course   there   have   been   some   very   large   set-­‐piece   one-­‐day   public   sector   strikes   over   pensions  in  June  and  November  2011  and  over  pay,  pensions  and  workload  in  July  2014   (Gall  and  Cohen,  2013;  Hale,  2007;  2008;  2009;  2010;  2012;  Lyddon,  1998;  2007;  2009),  but   such  spikes  have  not  altered  the  overall  trend.  Nor  has  sporadic  one-­‐day  national  strikes  by  
  • 12. 9     civil   servants,   teachers,   firefighters,   and   rail   network   and   London   Underground   workers.   Whatever  the  public  profile  of  such  disputes,  levels  of  strike  action  remain  at  very  low  levels   compared  to  the  heyday  of  union  militancy  in  the  1970s  and  1980s,  with  average  number  of   working  days  lost  through  strikes  between  1980-­‐1989  at  7.2  million  compared  to  the  period   2010-­‐14  when  it  was  647,000,  albeit  slightly  higher  in  2014  at  788,000  (Office  for  National   Statistics,   2015).   Indeed   what   is   notable   about   when   the   Conservative   government   introduced   balloting   reforms   in   the   early   1980s   is   that   it   was   on   the   back   of   a   wave   of   industrial  discontent,  whereas  today  union  militancy  has  been  considerably  diminished.  So   what   is   it   that   actually   explains   the   pressure   for   legislative   change,   and   what   are   the   underlying  real  motivations?  Arguably  there  are  three  factors  at  play.     First,  there  is  the  Conservatives’  ideological  agenda  of  seeking  to  utilise  austerity  and   the  government’s  neoliberal  offensive  as  a  means  to  impose  even  further  restrictions  on  a   relatively   weak   and   defensive   trade   union   movement   so   as   to   cement   that   weakness.   Second,  there  is  the  location  of  those  strikes  that  still  do  take  place,  namely  in  so-­‐called   ‘monopoly   sectors’   like   transport   and   communication   and   the   public   services,   and   the   nature  of  these  strikes,  which  have  tended  to  be  relatively  large  and  with  immediate  and   direct   effect   on   essential   services   and   the   public,   for   example   closing   down   schools,   disrupting   the   fire   service,   and   paralysing   the   railway   and   London   tube   networks   (Gall,   2010).     Third,   notwithstanding   historically   low   levels   of   strike   activity   overall,   it   would   appear  the  Conservatives’  perceived  ‘problem’  is  less  one  that  exists  now  than  one  than   what   is   foreseen   and   feared   in   the   future.   With   an   economic   and   political   imperative   to   proceed   with   much   deeper   spending   cuts   than   previously   and   to   maintain   a   1   per   cent   freeze   on   public   sector   pay   over   a   4-­‐year   period,   the   new   Conservative   government’s   proposed   legislation   appears   to   have   been   principally   designed   to   try   to   make   it   much   harder  for  unions  to  take  strike  action  and  to  weaken  potential  future  union  resistance  to   more  austerity.  As  Dave  Ward,  the  new  general  secretary  of  the  Communication  Workers   Union   (CWU),   has   said:   ‘This   is   a   Tory   government   that   is   planning   to   undermine   the   incomes  and  conditions  of  working  people  whilst  at  the  same  time  cynically  sabotaging  the   very  means  they  have  to  speak  out  in  protest’  (Express  and  Star,  27  May  2015).     Illogical  implications   Stanley   (2014)   has   compellingly   pointed   out   there   is   illogicality   to   the   Conservative’s   requirements  for  strike  ballots  to  have  a  50  per  cent  turnout  before  they  are  considered   valid.  He  utilises  the  example  of  two  hypothetical  strike  ballots  of  two  different  1,000  strong   workforces.  In  Acme  Rivets,  there  is  an  overwhelming  vote  for  action,  with  495  in  favour   and  4  against,  whereas  in  Gradgrind  Mills  the  workforce  are  more  divided,  voting  for  action   by  just  one  vote,  251  in  favour  and  250  against.  Union  negotiators  might  be  wary  of  calling   action  in  Gradgrind  Mills  as  the  vote  reveals  a  divided  workforce,  and  the  employer  might   not  feel  under  pressure  to  make  a  much  better  offer.  But  in  Acme  Rivets  there  is  a  clear   mandate  for  action,  and  any  employer  would  find  the  vote  impressive.  However,  under  the   Conservative’s  plans,  a  strike  in  Acme  Rivets  would  be  illegal  as  the  turnout  is  just  below  the   50  per  cent  threshold  needed  to  make  action  lawful.  By  contrast,  despite  the  split  vote  at   Gradgrind  Mills,  and  even  though  244  fewer  workers  voted  for  action,  a  strike  would  be  
  • 13. 10     legal.   But   if   only   one   person   who   voted   ‘no’   abstained   instead,   the   vote   would   become   invalid  as  the  turnout  would  no  longer  be  in  excess  of  50  per  cent.   As  Stanley  (2014)  has  explained,  under  the  proposals  the  people  who  do  not  vote  in   a  strike  ballot  attain  a  special  status.  First,  they  are  assumed  to,  in  effect,  be  opponents  of   strike  action.  Yet  arguably  whilst  apathy  or  lack  of  opinion  might  be  anathema  for  active   trade  unionists,  it  is  nonetheless  a  legitimate  position,  and  does  not  equate  to  supporting   one  side  or  the  other.  The  fact  that  they  do  not  vote  does  not  necessarily  mean  that  if  they   had  they  would  have  voted  against  taking  strike  action.  Second,  the  special  status  of  the   person  who  does  not  vote  goes  further  in  that  they  can  potentially  have  greater  weight  than   those  who  oppose  the  action  and  take  the  trouble  to  register  a  vote.  So  if  there  were  1,000   people  eligible  to  vote  in  a  strike  ballot  and  499  voted  in  favour  it  would  nullify  the  validity   of  the  vote,  as  the  turnout  would  fall  below  50  per  cent  on  the  basis  of  one  abstention.   In  reality,  we  cannot  really  infer  the  intent  of  those  who  do  not  vote.  All  we  really   know   about   non-­‐voters   is   that   they   don’t   know,   are   not   sure,   or   do   not   care   enough   to   participate  when  they  are  provided  a  chance  –  and  therefore  it  could  be  argued  that  they   should   not   get   to   help   to   decide.   In   fact,   thresholds   would   make   it   theoretically   more   beneficial  for  active  opponents  of  strike  action  to  collectively  non-­‐vote  if  they  knew  they   were   in   the   minority,   since   by   not   voting   they   could   prevent   it   reaching   the   imposed   ‘legitimatising’  threshold  and  thus  defeat  the  strike  decision,  whereas  by  actually  voting  ‘no’   when   they   knew   most   would   vote   ‘yes’   they   would   be   guaranteeing   passage.   In   other   words,  the  legislation  could  potentially  reduce  participation  rates.   Strike   ballots   were   initially   enacted   in   the   early   1980s   with   the   expectation   that   union   members   would   generally   be   reluctant   to   take   action   and   would   vote   accordingly,   such  that  the  incidence  of  strikes  would  be  reduced.  Yet  the  argument  that  the  so-­‐called   ‘silent  majority’  would  vote  in  a  ballot  against  ‘hot-­‐headed’  militant  union  leaderships  has   proved  to  be  false;  since  strike  votes  have  been  formally  measurable  it  can  be  shown  that   most  members  support  their  leaders’  recommendations  to  strike.       Trade  union  strike  ballots  2007-­‐2014     Year   Ballots   calling   for   ‘strike  action’   Ballots  voting  FOR   strike  action   Ballots  voting   AGAINST  strike   action   Split  result             2007   713   637   64   12   2008   794   658   123   13   2009   561   458   93   10   2010   555   487   61   7   2011   964   904   51   9   2012   585   487   89   8   2013   469   417   48   4   2014   628   550   68   10     Source:    Office  for  National  Statistics,  2015    
  • 14. 11     The  frequent  amendments  to  the  legislation  on  industrial  action  ballots  (of  which  the   threshold  measures  are  the  latest  initiative)  are  no  doubt,  in  part  at  least,  a  response  to   employers’   concerns   that   members’   support   for   union   claims   registered   in   ballots   can   actually  strengthen  unions’  bargaining  position.  Likewise  the  repeated  legal  challenges  and   threats  of  injunctions  to  trade  unions’  calls  on  members  to  take  strike  action  which  have   been  made  by  employers,  often  on  the  grounds  of  alleged  failure  to  satisfy  the  complex   statutory   prescription   for   ballots   and   associated   notices   to   employers   (Simpson,   2012;   2013).   Sometimes   this   legal   action   has   succeeded   and   resulted   in   the   ballot   being   suspended  or  strike  cancelled  (Gall,  2006);  for  example,  Unite  was  taken  to  the  High  Court   by  British  Airways  in  2010,  over  a  long-­‐running  dispute  with  cabin  crew.  Despite  eight  out  of   ten  workers  voting  for  strike  action  on  the  back  of  a  78  per  cent  ballot  turnout,  the  High   Court  judge  banned  the  strike  because  the  union  had  failed  to  give  notice  by  text  message   that  eleven  out  of  9,282  votes  had  been  spoilt.  But  the  employers’  use  of  legal  action  is  also   a  reflection  of  the  fact  that  the  introduction  of  postal  industrial  action  ballots  has  manifestly   failed  in  its  intention  of  preventing  workers  from  voting  in  favour  of  strikes.   Unions   do   not   necessarily   take   strike   action   following   a   positive   mandate.   Indeed   there  have  always  been  far  more  successful  ballots  and  notices  of  strike  action  than  actual   strikes.  It  is  the  willingness  of  union  members  to  vote  in  favour  of,  and  participate  in  strike   action,   that   has   resulted   in   unions   using   ballots   as   a   negotiation   tactic,   as   a   means   of   attempting   to   force   employers   to   make   concessions   previously   denied.   Often   the   strike   threat,   stemming   from   a   successful   ballot,   can   act   as   a   proxy   for   a   strike   itself,   as   the   employer  becomes  willing  to  make  compromises  and  the  union  is  able  to  achieve  a  more   favourable  settlement  without  the  need  to  take  action  (Brown  and  Wadhwani,  1190:  62).   Nonetheless,  a  sizeable  number  of  ballots  will  result  in  a  credible  prospect  of  strike  action   occurring  (Gall,  2006:  335-­‐6).     There  is  also  the  argument  that  it  is  not  reasonable  to  impose  electoral  thresholds   which  do  not  apply  to  the  UK’s  political  system  generally.  Thus  there  have  been  a  number  of   recent  local  elections  in  which  turnout  has  been  nowhere  near  50  per  cent.  In  the  2008   London  Mayoral  election  it  was  just  45  per  cent  and  in  2012  Boris  Johnson  was  elected  with   less  than  50  per  cent  of  both  first  and  second  preference  votes  and  on  a  turnout  of  only  38.1   per  cent.  The  lowest  ever  by-­‐election  turnout  of  18.2  per  cent  was  recorded  in  the  2012   Manchester  Central  by-­‐election  (with  the  incumbent  Labour  MP  Lucy  Powell  winning  with   just   12   per   cent   support).   Recent   local   Police   and   Crime   Commissioner   elections   have   resulted  in  turnouts  as  low  as  16.4  per  cent  in  Northumbria  and  10.3  per  cent  in  the  West   Midlands.     A   similar   pattern   has   been   played   out   in   general   elections.   Turnout   for   the   2014   European   Parliament   elections   was   just   over   34.2   per   cent,   and   for   the   2012   Alternative   Vote  (AV)  electoral  system  referendum  it  was  just  41  per  cent.  In  the  May  2015  general   parliamentary  elections  only  37  per  cent  of  voters  and  less  than  25  per  cent  of  the  eligible   electorate  as  a  whole  supported  the  Conservatives.  David  Cameron  managed  to  obtain  60.1   per  cent  of  the  vote  on  a  turnout  of  70.2  per  cent,  but  only  41.1  per  cent  of  the  eligible   electorate,  and  the  Chancellor  George  Osbourne  managed  to  obtain  58.6  per  cent  of  the   vote,  on  a  turnout  of  70.2  per  cent,  but  only  41.1  per  cent  of  the  eligible  electorate.    
  • 15. 12     Yet   despite   these   poor   turnouts   for   political   elections   the   Conservatives   have   not   proposed  similar  thresholds  to  those  that  trade  unions  are  going  to  be  expected  to  meet.     Competing  models  of  union  democracy   The   TUC   and   many   unions   have   pointed   out   that   there   are   more   proportionate   and   measured  ways  to  address  the  issue  of  low  ballot  participation  rates,  and  which  attempt  to   overcome  what  is  regarded  as  the  main  obstacle  to  higher  voting  levels:  secret  individual   postal  ballots  sent  to  the  home.  As  Frances  O’Grady  has  said:     It  is  everyone’s  interest  to  ensure  that  as  many  people  as  possible  participate,  but  the  government   has  saddled  unions  with  twentieth  century  postal  balloting  methods  that  make  it  harder  for  working   people  to  do  just  that.  Online  voting  is  the  way  to  bring  balloting  bang  up  to  date  and  help  ensure   some  equality  in  the  workplace  (Independent,  21  March  2015).     Removing  the  requirement  for  unions  to  post  ballot  papers  to  their  members’  home   addresses   (notably   in   an   era   when   most   post   tends   to   be   junk   mail   or   bills)   and   instead   allowing  union  members  to  complete  ballot  papers  electronically  via  a  secure  online  link  on   their   work   computers,   home   laptops,   tablets   or   smartphones   would   seem   likely   to   encourage   increased   voter   turnout,   as   well   as   reduce   the   cost   of   ballots   on   unions   considerably.5   Such   an   initiative   is   part   of   a   wider   drive   by   pressure   groups   such   as   WebRoots  Democracy,  who  campaign  for  the  introduction  of  an  online  voting  option  in  UK   elections  on  the  basis  that,  despite  being  able  to  email,  follow,  and  tweet  their  elected  MPs   online,  electors  are  not  yet  able  to  vote  for  them  online.  The  pressure  group  maintain  that   to  reverse  growing  political  apathy  and  low  electoral  turnout  in  the  UK,  particularly  among   young   people,   the   UK   needs   to   introduce   an   online   voting   option   in   time   for   the   2020   General   Election,   as   well   as   online   trade   union   strike   ballots   by   2016.   It   is   claimed   the   introduction  of  an  online  voting  option  could  increase  turnout  in  a  General  Election  by  up  to   79   per   cent,   with   up   to   an   extra   9   million   voters   (WebRoots   Democracy,   2015:   11-­‐13).   Likewise,  according  to  PCS  general  secretary  Mark  Serwotka,  turn-­‐out  in  strike  ballots  would   ‘rocket’  if  union  members  were  allowed  to  vote  electronically  or  by  phone  (BBC  News,  19   May  2015).   However,  online  voting  does  not  always  increase  turnout,  with  data  from  Estonia  –   where  online  voting  has  been  available  since  2005  –  showing  that  it  is  often  people  who   were   voting   already   who   are   switching   to   the   service.   Evidence   from   the   University   and   College  Union’s  (UCU)  2014  post-­‐strike  action  online  consultative  ballot  (as  opposed  to  a   strike  ballot,  albeit  further  strikes  were  implicit  in  a  ‘no’  vote)  on  whether  to  accept  revised   pension  change  proposals  was  that  voting  levels  may  have  been  encouraged  slightly,  with  a   turnout  recorded  of  39.1  per  cent  (15,706  in  total),  involving  10,538  (67  per  cent)  voting   ‘yes’  to  accept  and  only  5,168  voting  ‘no’  to  reject  (32.9  per  cent).  (UCU  Circular,  26  January                                                                                                                             5   The   cost   of   strike   ballots   was   initially   borne   by   the   state.   The   1980   Employment   Act   encouraged   the   extension  of  postal  ballots  by  providing  state  funding  for  the  first  time  under  statutory  instrument;  initially   these  applied  to  closed  shop  ballots  but  were  extended  by  later  Acts  to  include  strike  ballots.  After  a  number   of  ballots,  including  strike  ballots,  had  been  made  effectively  compulsory,  state  funding  was  withdrawn  with   effect  from  1996  by  Statutory  Instrument  in  1993.  The  result  has  been  that  since  1996  unions  can  be  obliged  to   spend  many  thousands  of  pounds  on  the  balloting  process.    
  • 16. 13     2015).   Yet   even   though   online   voting   would   undoubtedly   make   it   technically   easier   for   union   members   to   participate   in   strike   ballots,   it   is   not   does   overcome   the   inherent   fragmentation  and  atomisation  of  the  balloting  process.     The   more   fundamental   underlying   problem   is   the   way   government   legislative   initiatives  with  respect  to  strike  ballots  over  the  last  30  years  have  often  been  successfully   portrayed   as   a   necessary   means   to   increase   union   membership   participation   in   critically   important  decisions,  and  thereby  improve  democracy  -­‐  when  arguably  it  has  had  very  little   to  do  with  democracy,  the  objective  being  simply  to  make  strike  decisions  and  action  more   difficult  (McCrystal  and  Novitz,  2012).  This  linking  of  ballots  and  democracy  has  always  been   central  to  the  debate  about  secret  postal  ballots.  A  1976  Conservative  Party  manifesto,  The   Right  Approach,  argued  that  the  system  of  union  democracy  enshrined  in  union  rulebooks   did  not  function  in  practice.  Because  the  members  of  many  unions  were  required  to  attend   branch  meetings  if  they  wished  to  vote  on  policy  issues,  elect  their  general  secretary,  or   vote   for   industrial   action,   it   was   claimed   they   were   controlled   by   unrepresentative   minorities   of   militant   and   left-­‐wing   politically   motivated   activists.   The   vast   majority   of   members   were   not   willing   or   able   to   attend   branch   meetings   or   to   take   part   in   policy   debates  and  elections.     The  solution  was  seen  to  lie  in  introducing  legislation  that  would  make  it  compulsory   for  unions  to  involve  members  through  secret  postal  ballots.  This  would,  it  was  claimed,   take   power   away   from   the   militants   and   ‘give   the   unions   back   to   the   members’.   Union   members  would  receive  a  ballot  paper  through  the  post  and  be  asked  in  the  isolation  of   their  own  homes  to  exercise  their  choice  as  to  whether  to  vote  ‘yes’  or  ‘no’  to  industrial   action  proposals  (Undy  And  Martin,  1984:  15;  Farnham  and  Pimlott:  1995:  127-­‐128).  The   presumption  was  that  decisions  would  be  made  on  a  more  ‘rational’  basis  if  the  individual   worker  was  insulated  from  the  direct  pressures  of  work  colleagues  and  union  activists  and   the  emotion  of  the  mass  meeting  (Martin,  et  al,  1991:  198).   A   central   objective   of   the   legislation   was   to   sanctify   through   particular   ballot   procedures   union   members’   participation   as   individuals   rather   than   as   members   of   a   collective  -­‐  involving  a  separation  of  the  receipt  of  ballot  papers  from  the  workplace  and  the   elevation  of  individualist  over  collectivist  values  as  a  means  of  subverting  collective  union   organisation  and  orientations  (Smith  et,  1993;  Martin  et  al,  1995;  Undy  and  Martin,  1984;   Undy   et   al,   1996).   On   the   basis   of   what   could   be   viewed   as   a   parliamentary   model   of   democracy,  the  level  of  participation  in  strike  ballots  has  been  viewed  as  a  measure  of  union   democracy,   such   that   the   higher   the   participation   rate   the   more   democratic   the   union   (Edelstein  and  Warner,  1979:  63).  In  the  process,  it  effectively  dispensed  with  the  need  for   dialogue,   debate   and   continuous   involvement   by   an   active   membership,   and   replaced   it   with  a  highly  atomised  one-­‐off  vote  by  a  collection  of  aggregate  individuals  as  the  total  sum   of  membership  participation  (Davies  and  Freedland,  1993:  484;  Fredman,  1992:  29).   Critics   of   this   parliamentary   model   of   democracy   argued   the   balloting   legislation   failed  to  recognise  trade  unions  as  collective  organisations  that  were  formed  in  order  to   increase  the  power  of  individual  employees,  with  union  strength  dependent  on  members   acting   collectively   to   organise   and   express   the   conflicts   inherent   in   the   employment   relationship  (Mcllroy,  1998:  154).  Replacing  collective  decision  making  by  individual  secret   ballots  undermined  (or  prevented  the  emergence  of)  the  solidarity  required  for  effective  
  • 17. 14     strike  action.  It  essentially  counter  posed  the  idea  of  working  class  collective  strength  with   that  of  individual  rights  and  decisions,  thereby  fragmenting  and  isolating  union  members   away  from  their  fellow  workers  and  in  circumstances  where  they  were  most  open  to  self-­‐ doubt  and  moderate  ideas  (Hyman,  1989:  247).     Fairbrother  (1984)  advocated  an  alternative  participatory  model  of  democracy  which   emphasised   the   central   importance   of   collective   membership   participation   and   decision-­‐ making   via   a   process   of   discussion,   debate   and   examination   of   policies   and   decisions   founded  on  the  continuous  interaction  between  union  members  and  their  reps.  From  this   perspective:   Union   democracy   is…a   continuous   process   rooted   in   the   daily   experience   of   most   workers   and   involving  a  continuous  struggle  about  the  conditions  of  employment,  the  authority  of  employers  and   the  organisation  of  work…   Disagreement  and  discussion,  argument  and  counter-­‐argument,  are  the  key  features  of  this  process  –   a  sign  of  the  vitality  and  indeed  the  essence  of  union  organisation.  The  reason  for  this  is  that  the   experience   of   members   is   often   varied   and   there   are   not   always   obvious   and   clear-­‐cut   ways   to   proceed  and  advance  the  interests  of  the  membership.  Through  meetings,  discussions  and  debate,   decisions  are  made  and  policy  formulated  (p.  23-­‐24).   From  this  viewpoint  it  was  argued  that,  compared  with  the  secret  individual  postal   ballot,  a  much  more  effective  –  and  more  genuinely  democratic  –  channel  for  participation   would  involve  discussions,  debates  and  decisions  taken  at  workplace  union  meetings.  This   would  allow  questions  to  be  raised  about,  for  instance,  the  likely  length  of  the  strike,  its   objectives   and   the   ‘bottom   line’   for   a   settlement.   Under   such   circumstances,   in   which   members  were  encouraged  to  actively  participate  in  the  deliberations,  they  would  be  more   likely  to  understand  the  issues  and  arguments,  and  be  in  a  better  position  to  consider  their   collective  interests  than  if  they  voted  as  isolated  individuals  at  home,  and  where  the  only   real  ‘discussion’  of  the  proposal  for  many  members  would  come  in  the  form  of  a  positive   union  recommendation,  on  the  one  hand,  and  negative  media  campaign,  on  the  other.  It   would   vastly   increase   membership   participation   in   the   process   and   be   hugely   more   democratic.       Certainly   when   the   Trade   Union   Act   1984   (TUA   1984)   introduced   a   statutory   requirement   for   trade   unions   to   hold   industrial   action   ballots   which   could   be   workplace   ballots   and   to   achieve   a   majority   vote   in   favour   of   industrial   action,   it   had   the   effect   of   increasing  the  levels  of  membership  participation,  according  to  an  analysis  of  the  turnout  in   workplace   ballots   between   1985   and   1993   (Undy   et   al,   1996:   p.   220).   A   number   of   interviewed   trade   union   officers   estimated   that   turnout   averaged   20   per   cent   in   union   branch-­‐based  systems  and  50  per  cent  when  conducted  at  the  workplace.  In  one  district  of   the  AEU  engineering  union  an  average  turnout  of  81  per  cent  was  recorded  in  17  workplace   industrial  action  ballots  held  during  1987,  similar  to  the  level  achieved  by  the  National  Union   of   Mineworkers’(NUM)     traditional   workplace   ballots.   But   in   1993   workplace   ballots   for   strike  action  were  banned  by  the  Conservatives  and  only  fully  postal  balloting  was  allowed,   with   the   effect   that   it   reduced   the   turnout   compared   to   workplace   ballots   (p.   242).   According   to   the   Electoral   Reform   Balloting   Services   (ERBS,   1994:   3)   who   looked   at   242   postal  ballots  in  1994,  in  ballots  of  over  1,000  members  it  fell  to  approximately  44  per  cent.   In  other  words,  if  the  concern  is  simply  to  increase  turnout  then  workplace  ballots  would  
  • 18. 15     appear   to   represent   a   much   better   channel   than   a   secret   individual   postal   vote,   but   of   course  democracy  and  strike  ballot  legislation  is  not  simply  about  turnouts.   As  for  the  type  of  direct  union  democracy  signalled  in  workplace  mass  meetings  and   show-­‐of-­‐hands  strike  votes,  in  the  1960s  and  1970s  these  were  often  either  held  in  canteens   or   in   the   car   parks   outside   car   factories   and   other   workplaces   (Thornett,   1987:   47-­‐8;   Darlington,   1994:   234).   They   were   an   expression   of   a   collective   form   of   decision   making   based   on   open   debate,   in   an   atmosphere   of   strong,   dynamic   worker   interaction   (Cohen,   2006:   166-­‐7).   The   NUM’s   method   of   holding   such   ballots   at   the   pithead   was   particularly   attractive,   as   it   gave   every   union   member   the   right   to   vote,   but   under   conditions   which   encouraged   voting   by   reference   to   collective   rather   than   merely   individual   self-­‐interest.   Indeed  one  commentator  has  gone  so  far  as  to  comment:  ‘…the  use  of  strike  meetings  for   reaching   strike   decisions…is   perhaps   the   clearest   expression   to   be   found   of   industrial   democracy  at  work’  (McFarlane,  1981:  92-­‐3).     Yet   even   in   their   heyday   the   notion   of   such   mass   workplace   union   meetings   appeared  to  cut  against  the  grain  of  society.  As  Beynon  (1973:  305)  noted,  ‘it  is  anathema  to   many  people.  Few  things  raise  middle  class  Britain  to  a  greater  show  of  moral  outrage  than   workers  packed  into  large  halls,  voting  on  important  issues  by  a  show  of  hands’.  Despite  the   caricature  of  the  ‘bad  old  days  of  trade  union  militancy’  of  the  1970s  painted  by  the  tabloid   press,  in  which  allegedly  there  was  the  potential  for  ‘intimidation  by  union  firebrands’  at   such  open  mass  meetings  (Crossman,  2014),  it  was  not  always  the  case  that  militant  shop   stewards   were   able   to   win   support   amongst   shopfloor   members   for   strike   recommendations;  sometimes  the  decisions  made  at  such  meetings  involved  constraints  on   the  activities  of  stewards,  with  leadership  strike  calls  being  rejected  (McCarthy,  1967:  22;   Goodman  and  Whittingham,  1973:  191;  1999;  Batstone  et  al,  1977:  92-­‐3;  Darlington,  2006:   494-­‐497).  Conversely  although  postal  ballots  have  probably  reduced  industrial  militancy  by   denying  union  negotiators  the  opportunity  to  call  for  strike  votes  at  mass  meetings  in  which   appeals  for  solidarity  could  potentially  more  effectively  overcome  concern  with  individual   profit  and  loss,  postal  ballots  have  not  guaranteed  moderation,  such  that  the  method  and   location   of   voting   has   not   been   a   major   determinant   of   outcome   (despite   its   effect   on   participation)  compared  with  other  contingent  factors  (McCrystal  and  Novitz,  2012:  212).   Moreover  there  is  much  justification  to  the  view  that  workers  should  have  the  right   to  take  decisions  at  open  workplace  union  meetings,  whether  this  is  by  a  show  of  hands  or   by  a  secret  ballot  held  after  the  meeting  -­‐  potentially  in  today’s  world  being  facilitated  via   online   channels   after   the   meeting   -­‐   with   all   such   elections   subjected   to   independent   scrutiny.   It   should   be   noted   as   a   result   of   the   New   Labour   government’s   Statutory   Recognition   Procedure,   under   which   unions   were   given   rights   with   respect   to   union   recognition,  balloting  takes  place  at  the  workplace,  in  secret  and  under  the  supervision  of  a   qualified  independent  person.  A  similar  procedure  in  the  case  of  industrial  action  ballots   could  be  introduced  in  a  fashion  that  would,  to  some  extent  at  least,  address  the  problem  of   low  voter  turnouts.   But  even  if  such  alternative  ways  of  attempting  to  increase  ballot  vote  participation   are  both  justified  and,  if  implemented,  likely  to  succeed,  there  is  nonetheless  still  a  serious   doubt   as   to   whether   they   would   materially   increase   the   turnout   sufficient   to   meet   the   Conservatives  new  ballot  thresholds.  Even  if  many  unions  were  able  to  obtain  a  50  per  cent  
  • 19. 16     participation  rate,  they  would  still  find  it  very  difficult,  if  not  virtually  impossible  in  some   cases,  to  obtain  the  necessary  40  per  cent  majority  vote.  Such  apparently  insurmountable   dilemmas  raise  the  more  underlying  question  of  why  exactly  turnouts  in  strike  ballots  are  not   higher,   and   whether   there   are   broader   problems   at   stake   for   the   unions   -­‐   than   merely   attempting  to  ameliorate  through  technical  means  the  method  and  location  of  voting  –  in   confronting  the  Conservative’s  proposed  stringent  legislation?     Other  potential  factors  influencing  participation  rates   How   can   we   explain   strike   ballot   participation   rates?   Why   do   some   union   members   not   vote?  What  are  the  different  enhancing  or  inhibiting  factors  affecting  participation?  There   are  many  potentially  related  and  complex  factors  that  could  explain  this.  As  we  have  seen,  if   unions   did   not   have   to   jump   through   the   hoop   of   a   bureaucratic   and   atomising   secret   individual   postal   balloting   process,   away   from   the   collectivism   and   solidarity   of   the   workplace,  it  is  likely  there  would  be  a  higher  level  of  participation.  But  beyond  the  balloting   process,   what   other   factors   might   come   into   play   to   explain   why   some   union   members   participate  and  others  abstain?   The  apparent  apathy  of  some  union  members  in  not  voting  might  be  caused  by  the   fact  they  do  not  think  the  issue  is  important  enough  to  them,  or  because  they  have  busy   working   lives,   families   to   care   for,   and   a   social   life,   and   they   just   do   not   feel   motivated   enough  to  complete  a  voting  paper  and  then  take  the  initiative  to  post  it.  But  as  Paul  Nowak   (2011),   deputy   TUC   general   secretary,   has   suggested,   lack   of   participation   may   also   be   because  union  members  genuinely  can’t  make  up  their  mind,  and  so  decide  to  sit  out  the   vote  to  see  what  others  think;  or  whilst  they  may  be  very  sympathetic  to  the  union  cause,   they  hold  back  from  voting  on  the  assumption  that  strike  action  is  a  ‘big  deal’  and  will  cost   them   lost   wages;   or   they   may   balance   the   cost   of   the   substantive   issue   at   stake   –   for   example,   with   government   proposals   on   pensions   meaning   they   would   pay   more,   work   longer,  and  get  less  -­‐  with  an  understandable  reluctance  to  do  anything  that  could  impact  on   their  patients,  pupils  or  members  of  the  public  who  rely  on  them,  and  therefore  they  defer   their  decision  in  the  hope  that  an  agreed  compromise  settlement  might  be  reached.     It  should  be  noted  when  proposals  for  strikes  were  voted  for  in  mass  meetings  in   factory   canteens   or   car   parks   in   the   strike-­‐prone   days   of   the   1970s,   anecdotal   evidence   suggests   few   people   abstained   (Thornett,   1987).   Of   course,   in   large   part   this   may   have   reflected   a   more   confident   belief   in   the   strength   of   unions   and   their   prospects   of   strike   success.   Nonetheless,   even   during   these   times,   some   people   in   mass   meetings   were   no   doubt  more  hesitant  to  put  their  hands  up  than  others.  When  it  comes  to  today’s  individual   secret  postal  ballots,  it  seems  reasonable  to  assume  that  at  least  a  significant  proportion  of   workers  do  not  necessarily  abstain  because  they  do  not  care  about  the  issues  at  stake,  are   opposed  to  strike  action,  or  are  opposed  to  the  potential  loss  of  wages  involved  in  taking   action,  but  because  they  are  unsure  whether  striking  is  likely  to  succeed  –  otherwise,  if  they   were   sure,   they   would   probably   vote   ‘no’   straight   off.   Instead,   they   often   feel   uncertain   about  whether  the  union,  or  the  workforce,  is  strong  and  determined  enough  to  make  the   strike  effective  and  likely  to  succeed.  In  the  past,  at  mass  meetings,  those  unsure  workers   might  have  decided  by  observing  others  and,  if  there  was  a  large  enough  body  of  workers   putting   their   hands   up   for   a   strike   straight   away,   then   casting   their   vote   in   favour