'Strength' is all the Russians understand
Adm. James Stavridis is dean of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and former supreme allied commander at NATO. He spoke to the Trib regarding NATO's continued commitment to containing Russia and the organization's broader agenda.
Q: Given Russia's ongoing rift with the West, are we on the verge of another Cold War?
A: Let's remember what the Cold War actually looked like. It was 5 million troops facing each other, two enormous battle fleets, two nuclear arsenals on a hair-trigger alert. We're not at that point.
We have some disagreements with Russia, which is behaving in ways that clearly violate international law. At the moment, we have some high disagreement with them and we're going to have to work through that.
But no, I don't think we're on the verge of a return to the high level of tension we saw in the Cold War.
Q: Would it be safe to characterize relations with Russia as poor as they've been since the Cold War?
A: Absolutely. We are absolutely at the lowest point in relations between not just Russia and the United States, but Russia and the West — that's NATO, the European Union, the United States and Canada.
Q: For Russia to modify its behavior, do you believe a change in leadership at the top is necessary?
A: As desirable as that would be, I think it's highly unlikely. Vladimir Putin is relatively young — he's 62. We know he's in good health because we see him without his shirt on quite a bit. He clearly has his hand firmly on all the levels of power.
His most significant opponent, Boris Nemtsov, was assassinated under mysterious circumstances. The opposition is fragmented.
I think there's zero likelihood of Putin losing power, so we have to figure out a way to work with him.
Q: What's the best way to negotiate with him?
A: By working with NATO in a position of strength, as we're doing moving weapons systems closer to the Russian border, by in my view arming the Ukrainian military, increasing our exercises around the periphery of Russia, continuing to put political pressure on Putin using the sanctions.
I think we need to negotiate from a position of strength because that's all that the Russians understand.
Q: How do you see NATO moving forward, not just with Russia but globally?
A: First with Russia, NATO will continue to do everything it must to reassure the Eastern European NATO allies of NATO's readiness to protect them. That means the exercises, pre-positioned weapons and the participation of air, sea and ground forces in and around the Russian periphery to demonstrate NATO's capability and resolve against Russia.
More globally speaking, NATO has a bigger agenda than just what's going on in Ukraine. It still has a significant mission in Afghanistan, 15,000 total troops, NATO still has significant piracy operations off the coast of Africa, still has a significant force of about 5,000 in the Balkans as peacekeepers.
I think ultimately NATO may have to take some action with Syria, which is a NATO border with Turkey-Syria, or to protect Italy from waves of potential al-Qaida and Islamic State mixed up with the migrants that are coming across the sea.
So NATO has a big agenda that continues to operate on three continents. But the No. 1 focus of NATO at the moment is deterring Russia from further activity in Europe.
Eric Heyl is a Trib Total Media staff writer (412-320-7857 or eheyl@tribweb.com).
