Rosenthal notebook: Trout could still make AL MVP race interesting

It’s right there, listed at No. 2 among the criteria sent to the baseball writers who vote for the Most Valuable Player awards.

“Number of games played.”

Angels center fielder Mike Trout will max out at 115 if he plays in every game the rest of the season. In 1980, George Brett appeared in the fewest games by a non-pitching MVP in a 162-game season – 117.

The race for American League MVP is not terribly close at the moment, with Astros second baseman Jose Altuve the clear front-runner. Still, the Angels moved into the lead for the second AL wild card Tuesday night, and the MVP conversation is bound to get more interesting if Trout delivers a monster September and lifts the team to its first postseason appearance since 2014.

The best argument for Trout is through Wins Above Replacement – he is a close second to Altuve among AL position players in Fangraphs’ version, a more distant third to Altuve and Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons in Baseball-Reference’s version (pitcher Chris Sale actually leads the AL in fWAR, while Corey Kluber is second overall in rWAR).

WAR, whichever version you prefer, is not a definitive measure. But it is a cumulative metric, reflecting just how much offensive, defensive and base-running value Trout has packed into his 92 games. And remember, the instructions to MVP voters begin with the sentence, “There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means.”

Trout, who was MVP in 2014 and ’16 and second in ’12, ’13 and ’15, seemed headed for his second straight award when he suffered a torn ligament in his left thumb on May 29. His OPS at the time was a mind-blowing 1.203. Since his return, it’s 1.034, merely fourth best in the AL.

The Angels were 19-20 when Trout went on the disabled list. They went 26-27 without him. They are 27-20 since his return – and a stronger club since adding outfielder Justin Upton and second baseman Brandon Phillips on Aug. 31 and re-inserting right-hander Garrett Richards into their rotation on Tuesday night.

Trout is a more viable MVP candidate than Simmons, whose value mostly derives from his defense, even in his breakout offensive season. But at this point, Trout is still not more deserving than Altuve, who has appeared in all but five of the Astros’ 138 games and also performed brilliantly at an up-the-middle position.

Stay tuned through September. One way or another, Trout always make the MVP conversation interesting.

Pay these guys!

Teams whiffed by showing minimal interest in outfielders J.D. Martinez and Jay Bruce during trading season. The Diamondbacks acquired Martinez from the Tigers for three modest prospects on July 18, while the Indians stole Bruce for a lowly regarded minor league pitcher on Aug. 9, after the Mets could not move the slugger before the non-waiver deadline.

Yes, 92 players already have hit 20 home runs, seemingly devaluing power in the marketplace. But Martinez has 34 homers and Bruce 33, putting them in the top 13 in the sport.

The trade and free agent markets are vastly different; teams often are more willing to disrupt their rosters by signing free agents during the off-season than they are by making in-season trades. So, it would be premature to conclude that offseason interest in them will be as tepid as it was during the season.

Martinez and Bruce, both 30, will be among the best hitters in a thin free agent class. They also will be true free agents, ineligible for a qualifying offer – and draft-pick compensation – after getting traded in the middle of the season.

The hitters who lingered on the market in recent free agent classes mostly were poor defenders. Bruce ranks fourth this season among right fielders in defensive runs saved, and while Martinez’s defensive metrics are not nearly as good, he has hit 18 home runs in 168 plate appearances since joining the Diamondbacks, providing clear and immediate impact.

Free agency is always a bit of a wild card. Justin Upton, 30, might opt out of his contract with the Angels and pose competition for Martinez and Bruce. The Royals’ best free agent position players – first baseman Eric Hosmer, third baseman Mike Moustakas and outfielder Lorenzo Cain – all will be coveted. The Marlins might stall the market for outfielders if they listen to trade offers for Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich.

Still, as Upton told me last weekend, “At the end of the day, teams want players – players that can be effective, and effective immediately in a lineup, or on the other side of the ball on defense. If you play well enough, there’s a job for you.”

There should be jobs – well-paying jobs – for Martinez and Bruce.

What is next for Tigers

The Tigers made painful but necessary decisions by trading Martinez, Upton, left-handed reliever Justin Wilson and right-handed ace Justin Verlander. Their next set of moves are more difficult to predict and likely more difficult to execute.

Here is a look at what might happen with their top remaining trade candidates, using information compiled from major league sources:

– Ian Kinsler. As I reported on Twitter, Kinsler’s club option for 2018 will vest if he reaches 600 plate appearances. He currently sits at 522. Even if he falls short, the Tigers are almost certain to exercise the option with the idea of trading Kinsler this winter or next season. The option will be worth $11 million if it vests and $12 million if Kinsler wins his second straight Gold Glove at second base, according to MLBTradeRumors.com. Otherwise, its value is $10 million.

Kinsler, 35, does not figure to be in high demand over the winter with his OPS declining from .831 last season to .697 this season. But the Tigers expect him to be even more motivated than usual next season while playing for a new contract, and Kinsler will serve as a good mentor for the team’s younger players until he is moved.

– Nicholas Castellanos. The Tigers will soon begin playing Castellanos in right field so they can look at the newly acquired Jeimer Candelario at third base. Castellanos might become the everyday right fielder in ’18, or return to third for at least for the start of the season if the Tigers determine that Candelario needs more development time.

The possibility of a trade is complicated by Castellanos’ struggles to master a defensive position and diminishing club control; he has two more years of arbitration remaining, and his 20 homers and .761 OPS should lead to a significant raise from his current $3 million salary. The Tigers like his bat, and it’s easy to forget that he’s still only 25. If Castellanos can handle right field at the modest level of J.D. Martinez, his trade value will increase.

– Miguel Cabrera. He’s 34, completing his worst offensive season and guaranteed $192 million from 2018 to ‘23, including an $8 million buyout. The best guess is that Cabrera will become the Tigers’ version of Albert Pujols – overpriced, impossible to trade but productive, and a good example for the team’s younger players.

The Tigers have explored trading Cabrera for two years, to no avail. An unidentified team showed interest last season, but the Tigers were unwilling to include the amount of cash the team wanted in the deal.

– Michael Fulmer. His visit to Dr. James Andrews on Sept. 11 will determine whether he needs ulnar-nerve transposition surgery, which would require a recovery time of two to three months. Teams will be reluctant to acquire Fulmer until seeing him pitch him again, and the Tigers are in no rush to move a pitcher whom they control for the next five seasons.

Four of the Tigers’ top five prospects, according to MLBPipeline.com, are right-handed pitchers – Franklin Perez, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo and Beau Burrows. Fulmer, 24, could easily anchor that group, and the Tigers instead could move left-hander Daniel Norris or Matt Boyd if either or both increase their trade value.

Next for Sabean: The Marlins?

Yankees vice president of player development Gary Denbo is a potential candidate for the Marlins’ GM position under Derek Jeter, as first mentioned by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Here’s another name that would make sense: Brian Sabean, the Giants’ executive vice president of baseball operations.

Sabean was the Yankees’ scouting director when the team selected Jeter with the sixth overall pick in 1992. He scouted Jeter personally and persuaded late owner George Steinbrenner to draft the shortstop, even though Steinbrenner preferred college players who could reach the majors sooner.

Another connection: Sabean, who was the Giants’ GM from 1996 to 2014, is familiar with Jeter’s agent, Casey Close, who represents many prominent players. Ned Colletti, the Dodgers GM-turned-broadcaster, who was an assistant to Sabean with the Giants, also knows Close well, and conceivably could reunite with Sabean in a front office role.

Of course, Sabean might be reluctant to leave the Giants. In July, during a Q-and-A with Andrew Baggarly of the Bay Area News Group, Sabean hinted at assuming a larger role with the club, which entered Wednesday with the worst record in the majors.

“I think given what we’re going through, obviously I’ll be involved in how we map this out or paint the picture going forward to a greater extent,” Sabean said.

Decision time looming in Philly

The timing of the Phillies’ promotion of top shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford was a bit unusual. Crawford helped the team’s Triple A Lehigh Valley affiliate win its final five games to clinch a postseason berth, but he will miss the International League playoffs in order to join the major league club, which is 32 games below .500.

The Phillies, according to sources, wanted Crawford to finish his Triple A season, but they also want to determine where he might fit in the majors for 2018. The outcome of Crawford’s 25-game trial will influence the team’s decision on whether to trade shortstop Freddy Galvis, who is a free agent after next season.

A strong showing by Crawford likely would lead to a trade of Galvis this winter; a weaker performance might persuade the club to keep Galvis through at least the start of ‘18. If Crawford had stayed at Triple A, the Phillies would not have seen him in the majors until at least mid-September.

Around the horn

– Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus recently turned 29 and entered Wednesday with 1,431 career hits. It might seem like a reach to think Andrus can get to 3,000, but he has been in the majors ever since the Rangers promoted him at age 20 in April 2009, and he has never gone on the disabled list.

The long-term question is whether Andrus will remain with the Rangers. He can opt out of his deal after either the 2018 season, when he will be 30, or after the 2019 season, when he will be 31. Free agency will be tempting, given his offensive turnaround the past two seasons.

– The advanced metrics say that Troy Tulowitzki is declining at shortstop, and Tulo defended himself to reporters last week, saying that he still brings a lot to the position. The real issue, frankly, is Tulo’s offense; he doesn’t hit enough to justify a move to third or first.

There is a real question about whether Tulo will finish his contract in Toronto; after this season, he is owed $58 million through 2020, including a $4 million buyout. At some point, the Jays might need to make a hard decision, either trading or releasing him.

– The Rangers face an interesting decision on center fielder Carlos Gomez, who is a free agent at the end of the season. Club officials love Gomez’s energy and positive attitude, but that does not guarantee they will retain him after paying him $11.5 million this season.

Gomez entered Wednesday with 17 homers and an .805 OPS, but his defense is erratic and the team can go younger in the outfield with Delino Deshields, Drew Robinson and possibly Willie Calhoun, the prize of the Yu Darvish trade. The Rangers, who will open a new ballpark in 2020, could build around a young core of DeShields, Calhoun, Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara and Rougned Odor, but will need more pitching to stay competitive short-term.

(Top photo: Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports)