IMD hits bullseye on rains forecast

NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department has hit the bullseye with its countrywide monsoon forecast for July. The month ended with a rain surplus of 7%, exactly as IMD had predicted, leading to higher than normal sowing activity across the country.
In its second-stage monsoon forecast released on June 2, IMD had predicted monsoon's performance in July to be 107% of the long term average (that is, a surplus of 7%), with a model error of 9%.It has forecast 104% rain in August and an "above-normal" monsoon performance at 106% of average.
Halfway into the monsoon season , the department's region wise forecasts are also more or less on track. As against a prediction of 108% of average rainfall for the entire season in northwest India, the region has so far received 106%. Central India too has so far received 106% of average rainfall, as against a forecast of 113% for the season.
Likewise, the prediction for south India was again 113% while actual rain so far has been 104%. For east and northeast India, actual rain has been 87% of average while the prediction is 94%.
The department will soon update its forecast for the remaining two months of the monsoon season.
With many parts of the country receiving adequate rain in July, the kharif sowing has shown a healthy trend. Total sown area till July 29 was 6% higher than normal. The area under paddy cultivation so far is 231.92 lakh hectares, which is around 2.5% higher than normal.