Monsoon hits Kerala, confirms IMD
In the next 48 hours, southwest monsoon is expected to further advance into some more parts
New Delhi: The monsoon has arrived in mainland India, a full five days after the initial date of onset forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The IMD had initially set a 30 May date and later revised it to 5 June.
The government weather forecaster announced the arrival after 70% of its 14 rainfall monitoring stations across Kerala reported rain in excess of 2.5mm for two consecutive days.
The onset marks the beginning of the June-September rainy season, which accounts for more than 70% of India’s annual rainfall. The four-month season is crucial for India as over 60% of its cultivable land is rain-fed.
While a late arrival of the monsoon is no indicator of its ultimate performance, the rain forecast for this year’s season has been bleak.
In its April forecast, IMD said monsoon rainfall would be below normal in the June-September season, but on Tuesday, it further downgraded the forecast, saying there is a 66% probability that rainfall will be deficient.
According to IMD’s latest forecast, the southwest monsoon will be 88% of the 50-year average—the deficient category.
One of the biggest forces threatening the Indian monsoon is the strengthening of El Nino, a weather phenomenon associated with the warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean, triggering atmospheric changes linked to drier-than-normal conditions in India. The probability of El Nino continuing over the entire monsoon season is now 90%.
“The rainfall over Kerala has been fairly widespread in the last 48 hours," said an IMD press release. Its officials added that the monsoon has advanced into the entire Lakshadweep area and Kerala, some parts of coastal and south interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
In the next 48 hours, the southwest monsoon is expected to further advance into some more parts of Karnataka, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, some parts of Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh and southern parts of northeastern states.
The normal date for the arrival of the southwest monsoon is 1 June. It advances to other parts of the country over June and normally reaches northwest India by 15 July. The arrival of the monsoon also affects the timing of the sowing of crops.
“There has been a delay of 5-6 days in the arrival of the monsoon, but this will not have a substantial impact on the sowing season as the concerned crops have quite some time in the sowing window," said N. Chattopadhyay, deputy director general of the agricultural meteorology division at IMD in Pune. “As for the deficient rainfall forecast, spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is as important as the quantity of rainfall," he added.
The Pune division of IMD is monitoring the monsoon and reviewing its progress every 15 days. Some farmers have been advised to look for alternative crops of short duration rather than medium duration.
Meanwhile, the ministry of agriculture, along with ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad, has prepared detailed crop contingency plans for 580 districts across 25 states.
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