E
CO
S
COPE
CPI inflation inches up in May’19, IIP surprises positively
Rate cut in August on the cards
12 June 2019
The Economy Observer
CPI-based retail inflation inched up marginally to a seven-month high of 3.05% in May’19 from 2.99% a
month ago. The number was in line with consensus, and marginally higher than our forecast of 2.9%.
Higher headline inflation can primarily be attributed to food inflation, which rose to an 11-month high of
1.9% in May’19 due to an uptick in inflation in ‘vegetables’ from 2.9% in Apr’19 to 5.5% last month.
Core inflation (all items excluding ‘food & beverages’, ‘pan, tobacco & intoxicants’ and ‘fuel & light’) eased
to 4.2% YoY in May’19, the lowest level in 22 months.
Inflation in ‘core services,’ however, decelerated to a 10-month low of 5.6% in May’19 from 5.9% a month
ago, supported by a decline in inflation across its sub-categories.
Growth in Index of Industrial Production (IIP) inched up to a six-month high of 3.4% in Apr’19 v/s 0.4% a
month ago and 4.5% in Apr’18 (Exhibit 6). The IIP growth number is lower than both our forecast and
consensus of 1.6% and 0.6%, respectively. The rise was largely broad-based with the push coming from all
the three categories—manufacturing, mining and electricity.
Lower level of retail inflation and subdued GDP growth raise the possibility of a 25bp rate cut in the RBI’s
August monetary policy meeting, in our view. We expect inflation to cross 4% in Oct’19 and average 4.1% in
FY20, and IIP to average 3.7% in FY20, similar to that in FY19.
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I. Retail inflation
inches up marginally
CPI inflation at seven-month high…:
CPI-based retail inflation inched up
marginally to a seven-month high of 3.05% in May’19 from 2.99% a month ago
(Exhibit 1).
The number was in line with consensus, and marginally higher than
our forecast of 2.9%.
…on account of rise in food inflation:
The primary driver of higher headline
inflation was food inflation, which rose to an 11-month high of 1.9% in May’19
(Exhibit 3).
Higher food inflation was driven by ‘vegetables,’ which saw an uptick
in inflation from 2.9% in Apr’19 to 5.5% last month
(Exhibit 2).
After remaining in
the deflationary zone for 29 months, pulses inflation came in at 2.1% in May’19.
Overall, almost all sub-components of food posted higher inflation than a month
ago, except fruits, which witnessed deflation from 4.9% in April to 5.2% in
May’19. Non-food inflation was 3.8% YoY last month, the lowest level since
2012 when the current series began.
Core inflation at 22-month low:
Core inflation (all items excluding
‘food & beverages’, ‘pan, tobacco & intoxicants’ and ‘fuel & light’) eased to
4.2% YoY in May’19, the lowest level in 22 months.
Inflation in ‘core services’ eases further:
Inflation in ‘core services’ decelerated
to a 10-month low of 5.6% in May’19 from 5.9% a month ago (Exhibit 4),
supported by a decline in inflation across categories—household, health,
transport and communication, education, recreation and personal care. Notably,
‘transport and communication’ inflation was at a 12-month low of 3.9% and
‘education’ inflation at a seven-month low of 7.1%.
Policy rate cut in August remains on the cards:
Although marginally higher in
May’19, retail inflation remains subdued. Lower level of retail inflation and
subdued GDP growth raise the
possibility of a 25bp rate cut in the RBI’s August
monetary policy meeting,
in our view. We expect inflation to cross 4% in Oct’19
and average 4.1% in FY20.
Nikhil Gupta – Research Analyst
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1555
Yaswi Agarwal
– Research Analyst
(Yaswi.Agarwal@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 7193 4196
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Exhibit 1: Retail inflation inches up to 3.1% in May’19…
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
(% YoY)
Headline CPI
Core CPI*
Exhibit 2: …driven by higher food inflation
Cereals & products
Pulses & products
Sugar & products
Vegetable
Other 'food & beverages'
Pan, tobacco & intoxicants
Fuel & light
Housing
Clothing & footwear
Fuel for vehicles
Other 'Miscellaneous' items (0.11)
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), MOFSL
(0.01)
(0.02)
(0.01)
(0.01)
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.06
0.05
0.16
(pp)
* Excluding F&B and F&L
Exhibit 3: Core CPI* at 22-month low of 4.2% in May’19…
7
6
5
4
3
2
Core CPI*
CPI excl Food
Exhibit 4: …and inflation in ‘core services’ falls to 5.6%
10
8
6
4
2
0
May-17
Nov-17
May-18
Nov-18
May-19
Housing
(% YoY)
Core services
Goods
(% YoY)
* Excluding ‘food & beverages’, ‘pan, tobacco & intoxicants’ and
‘fuel & light’
Source: CSO, MOFSL
Exhibit 5: CPI and key components (% YoY)
% YoY
Overall CPI
Food & beverages
Cereal & products
Pulses & products
Meat & fish
Milk & products
Fruits & vegetables
Pan, tobacco & intoxicants
Fuel & light
Housing
Clothing & footwear
Miscellaneous
Transport & communication
Core CPI#
FY16
4.5
4.4
4.2
9.3
5.6
4.1
(0.1)
6.8
3.3
5.2
5.0
4.5
3.0
4.7
FY17
3.6
2.2
3.5
(21.0)
3.2
4.1
5.5
6.9
5.8
6.5
4.7
3.7
2.7
4.5
FY18
3.4
0.7
2.1
(8.3)
4.0
1.8
(2.8)
6.2
5.7
6.7
4.1
5.9
5.2
5.8
May-18
4.9
3.3
2.8
(11.6)
3.5
3.2
9.4
8.0
5.8
8.4
5.5
5.4
5.3
6.2
Mar-19
2.9
0.7
1.2
Apr-19
3.0
1.4
1.2
May-19
3.1
2.0
1.2
(2.2)
(0.8)
2.1
6.5
7.5
8.1
0.8
0.4
0.4
(3.0)
0.1
1.7
4.6
4.3
3.9
2.3
2.6
2.5
4.9
4.8
4.8
2.5
2.0
1.8
5.7
5.1
4.6
3.0
2.5
1.6
5.0
4.7
4.2
# Excluding F&B and F&L; Source: CSO, MOFSL
12 June 2019
2

II. IIP growth surprises positively, at six-month high
IIP growth accelerates to 3.4% in Apr’19 …:
Growth in Index of Industrial
Production (IIP) inched up to a six-month high of 3.4% in Apr’19 v/s 0.4% a
month ago and 4.5% in Apr’18.
(Exhibit 6).
The IIP growth number is lower than
both our forecast and consensus of 1.6% and 0.6%, respectively. The rise was
largely broad-based with the push coming from all the three categories—
manufacturing, mining and electricity.
…on account of across-the-board growth:
Manufacturing (IIP weight: ~78%)
growth accelerated to a four-month-high of 2.8% in Apr’19
(Exhibit 7)
v/s 0.1%
in Mar’19. Mining (IIP weight: 14%) growth was at 5.1% v/s 0.8% a month ago,
while electricity (IIP weight: 8%) growth came in at 6.0% v/s 2.2% in Mar’19.
Growth in accelerated in almost all the major categories within the
manufacturing sector. Growth in food products (IIP weight: 5.3%) inched up to
11%, while that in chemicals (7.8%) accelerated to 2.8%, in pharmaceuticals
(4.9%) to 4.3% and in basic metals (12.8%) to 3.1%. However, growth in refined
petroleum products, which constitute a good 11.8% weight within
manufacturing, decelerated to 4.2% in Apr’19 from 4.6% a month ago
(Exhibit
8).
All segments except infrastructure/construction exhibit faster output growth:
As per the use-based classification, output growth doubled to 5.2% in primary
goods, while it accelerated to 2.5% in capital goods, 1.0% in intermediate goods,
2.4% in consumer durables and 5.2% in consumer non-durables. Growth in
infrastructure/construction however, decelerated to 1.7% in Apr’19 (lowest
level in 19 months) from 6.4% a month ago
(Exhibit 9).
IIP to grow 3.7% in FY20:
We expect IIP growth to average 3.7% in FY20, similar
to that in FY19. We expect growth to come in at 3.1% in 1QFY20, lower than
5.1% in 1QFY19.
Exhibit 7: …due to acceleration across sectors
Mining
11
8
4.6
2.5
1.6
0.4
0.2
3.4
6
3
1
Manufacturing
Electricity
IIP
Exhibit 6: IIP growth at six-month high of 3.4% in Apr’19…
(% YoY)
8.5
7.3 6.9
3.2
4.8
4.1
1.0
-0.3
Apr-17
Aug-17
Dec-17
Apr-18
Aug-18
Dec-18
Apr-19
4.5
IIP growth
7.0
6.5
-2
Apr/18 Jun/18 Aug/18 Oct/18 Dec/18 Feb/19 Apr/19
Source: CSO, MOFSL
Source: CSO, MOFSL
12 June 2019
3

Exhibit 8: Manufacturing growth was largely broad based
100
80
60
40
20
0
Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19
Source: CSO, MOFSL
< last year
<0%
< 5%
Exhibit 9: As per use-based classification, infra/construction
goods witnessed deceleration in growth
Primary
Consumer
Capital
Infra/cons
Intermediate
YoY (%)
22
14
6
(2)
(10)
Apr/18 Jun/18 Aug/18 Oct/18 Dec/18 Feb/19 Apr/19
Source: CSO, MOFSL
Exhibit 10:
Key components of IIP
% Y-o-Y
Industry-based classification
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity
IIP
Use-based classification
Primary goods
Capital Goods
Intermediate Goods
Infrastructure/Construction
Consumer Goods
Durable Goods
Non-Durable Goods
34.0
8.2
17.2
12.3
28.2
12.8
15.3
4.9
3.2
3.3
3.9
5.7
3.0
8.0
3.7
4.0
2.3
5.6
6.2
0.8
10.5
3.5
2.9
(0.5)
7.5
4.6
5.5
3.9
2.7
9.8
0.4
8.5
5.9
3.9
7.5
1.3
(8.9)
(5.0)
2.1
2.9
1.2
4.2
2.6
(8.4)
(2.5)
6.4
(0.8)
(3.1)
5.2
2.5
1.0
1.7
4.0
2.4
14.4
77.6
8.0
100.0
5.3
4.3
5.8
4.6
2.3
4.7
5.3
4.4
2.8
3.5
5.2
3.6
3.8
4.9
2.1
4.5
2.2
(0.4)
1.3
0.1
0.8
0.1
2.2
0.4
5.1
2.8
6.0
3.4
Weight
FY16
FY17
FY18
Apr-18
Feb-18
Mar-19
Apr-19
1.0
5.2
Source: CSO, MOFSL
12 June 2019
4

Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
< - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
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inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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Contact No.:022-38281085.
Registration details: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412.
AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual
Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd.
is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. *Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate
products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench. The existing registration no(s) of MOSL would be used until receipt of new MOFSL registration numbers.
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