Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Sector Update | 18 February 2020

Cement

Price hikes continue; 4QFY20 outlook strong

Further price hikes initiated in Feb, after sharp hikes of Jan

All-India prices up 6% YoY in

Feb’20



We expect cement sector margins to be strong in 4QFY20 as price hikes have resumed

in CY20 (after trending down in 2HCY19) and costs have been declining.

According to our channel checks, prices have continued increasing in CY20, led by

hikes in south in Feb’20. All-India cement prices are up ~4% QoQ (+6% YoY) so far this

quarter.

Regionally, on a sequential basis, prices are up ~6% in east, 5% in north, 4% in central,

3% in west, and 1% in south (led by sharp hikes in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana).

Moreover, after falling in 3QFY20, costs are likely to decline further this quarter, led by

lower energy costs and operating leverage benefits from seasonally higher volumes.

We reiterate our preference for companies with higher exposure to north and central

India. UltraTech is our top large-cap and JK Cement our top mid-cap pick. We also like

ACC as a value pick.

South – another attempt to raise prices



Please find links to our earlier

reports:



Cement industry in south has attempted a sharp price hike again in Andhra

Pradesh and Telangana (AP&T), with prices being raised by INR60-70/bag (25-

30%) in Feb’20. A dispatch holiday was also taken in the first week of Feb’20 to

support the hike.

Prices in AP&T have been very weak in 2HCY19 (down by ~30% to INR90/bag)

due to weak demand. Industry has been trying to raise prices nearly every

month over the past 4-5 months but has not been successful.

South was the only region in India to not see a price hike in Jan’20. In fact, prices

were down 2% MoM in the month due to lower prices in Kerala. Prices have

been raised by 7% MoM in Feb’20, driving up all-India average price growth.

Prices in south, however, are down by 5% YoY on account of a high base (Feb’19

had witnessed price hike of INR60/bag in south). On a sequential basis, prices

are up 1% QoQ in the region.

North and central India continue to shine; prices up 13-16%



Prices in north increased marginally in Feb’20 (in Punjab and Rajasthan) after

INR15/bag hike in Jan. Prices are up 5% QoQ and 16% YoY. While the region has

seen capacity addition by JK Cement, this is expected to ramp up gradually and

not disturb the market balance given >80% utilization.

Prices in central India increased by INR5/bag in Feb’20 after an INR10/bag hike

in Jan, and are currently up 4% QoQ (and 13% YoY). Non-trade prices in the

region also increased by INR25/bag in Jan.

Amit Murarka - Research analyst

(Amit.Murarka@motilaloswal.com) +91 22 7199 2309

Pradnya Ganar - Research analyst

(Pradnya.Ganar@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1537

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Investors

2020

advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

18 February

are

Cement

East prices have improved but sustainability questionable



East was the only region in India to have no price gains in CY19 as 2H saw a

sharp decline of 13% (INR50/bag), eroding the gains of 14% in 1HCY19.

CY20 has also started on a positive note for east, with prices up 8% YTD (and 6%

QoQ) driven by INR20-30/bag of hike across states in Jan. Demand is best in the

country, growing >10% YoY led by affordable housing projects, etc.

We, however, expect prices in east to remain volatile, given ~25% capacity

expansion by various players (including Shree) over the next 18 months, which

would likely create a fight for market share. Dalmia Bharat has recently

commissioned its 3mtpa clinker in Odisha and will commission 5.2mtpa cement

grinding units over the next 6-9 months.

West prices improve as Maharashtra prices recover from lows



Prices in Mumbai had declined by 16% (INR60/bag) in 2HCY19 due to weak

demand and excess supplies from south.

Mumbai prices have risen ~7% (INR20/bag) YTD CY20 led by hikes taken in Jan.

Prices in Ahmedabad have increased by INR10/bag from the levels of Dec’19.

Non-trade prices have risen even more by INR25-30/bag as these had declined

sharply in Dec in both Mumbai and Ahmedabad markets.

Current prices in west are higher by 1% YoY and 3% QoQ.

Cost tailwinds to continue; expect further decline in power & fuel costs



Power & fuel costs declined by INR50-70/t for most cement companies in

3QFY20 on account of lower petcoke prices (-20% to USD68/t in 2HCY19).

Given about two months’ lag in realization of import petcoke prices for Indian

cement companies (due to inventory and transit time), the full benefit of lower

prices is expected to be realized in 4QFY20. We expect further INR30-40/t QoQ

reduction in power & fuel costs for the cement industry, which should be

supportive of margins.

While petcoke prices have increased by ~5% MoM in Feb’20, it should not be

too inflationary in the near term (for 1QFY21).

Moreover, with crude prices also being soft, we have seen diesel prices being

reduced by 5% MoM in Feb’20 to average levels seen in 3QFY20.

Valuation and view



Cement demand has started recovering from December with volumes now

growing by 3-5% YoY, as against a decline of 2-3% in 1HFY20. We expect growth

to improve to 6% in FY21, supported by a low base.

We believe that the north and central India markets are best placed structurally

as they have achieved a high level of consolidation with utilization at ~85%

already. Prices in these regions should continue to fare better.

We prefer companies that (a) have an ability to gain market share, (b) are

moving down the cost curve and (c) provide valuation comfort. Therefore,

UltraTech is our top large-cap and JK Cement our top mid-cap pick. We also like

ACC as a value pick. We do not see much upside in Shree and Ramco, as their

potential market share gains over the next three years are already priced in.

18 February 2020

Cement

Cement: Valuation summary

UltraTech

Shree Cement

Ambuja Cement

ACC

The Ramco Cement

Dalmia Bharat

JK Cement

Birla Corp

JK Lakshmi

Prism Johnson

India Cement

Mcap

CMP (INR)

(USD b)

17.8

4,451

12.1

24,031

5.6

204

3.7

1,423

2.6

788

2.3

863

1.5

1,414

0.8

747

0.5

330

0.5

0.3

RECO

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

ROE (%)

P/E (x)

FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E

11.5 13.6 14.8 31.5

23.9

14.1 15.0 16.3 53.5

40.6

6.6

6.8 18.9

18.0

12.3 11.7 11.7 19.7

18.8

13.0 12.6 13.6 30.3

28.0

2.8

4.7

7.6 55.9

32.3

16.6 16.5 19.0 22.7

19.8

10.4 10.8 11.6 11.8

10.4

15.9 15.4 16.8 15.0

13.5

6.8

8.4 10.3 41.8

32.3

2.5

2.8

3.8 17.3

15.2

EV/EBITDA (x)

EV/Ton(x)

FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E

19.4 14.2 12.0 10.3 172 166

156

32.8 21.1 18.0 14.8 262 238

224

16.7 10.0

8.9

8.2 102

17.1

9.0

7.7

6.4

23.1 17.2 15.2 12.8 139 139

137

19.0

8.6

7.1

5.8

14.6 10.8

8.9

6.9 110 105

8.8

5.4

4.6

4.0

10.6

7.1

6.3

5.1

24.5

8.5

7.6

6.9

10.8

7.0

6.8

6.1

18 February 2020

Cement

Story in charts

Exhibit 1: All-India prices up 6% YoY in Feb’20

All India retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

390

330

270

210

150

-25%

% Change YoY (RHS)

25%

450

390

330

270

210

150

Exhibit 2: Prices in north up 16% YoY in Feb’20

North retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

% Change YoY (RHS)

50%

25%

-25%

Exhibit 3: Prices in central India up 13% YoY in Feb’20

Central retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

390

330

270

210

150

-25%

% Change YoY (RHS)

25%

Exhibit 4: Prices in west up 1% YoY in Feb’20

West retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

390

330

270

210

150

% Change YoY (RHS)

50%

25%

-25%

-50%

Source: MOFSL

Exhibit 5: Prices in south down 5% YoY in Feb’20

South retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

450

390

330

270

210

150

% Change YoY (RHS)

75%

50%

25%

-25%

-50%

Exhibit 6: Prices in east up 7% YoY in Feb’20

East retail price INR/ 50 kg bag

390

330

270

210

150

-25%

% Change YoY (RHS)

50%

25%

Source: MOFSL

18 February 2020

Cement

Exhibit 7: Imported petcoke prices down 26% YoY in Feb’20

Imported petcoke price in USD

-10%

-19%

-17%

-23%

-22%

-27%

-33% -31%

-31%

-29%

-32% -31%

-26%

YoY growth (%)

Exhibit 8: Imported coal prices declined 29% YoY in Feb’20

Imported coal price in USD/t

YoY change (%)

Source: Industry

Source: Bloomberg

Exhibit 9: Diesel prices remain down 1% YoY in Feb’20

Diesel price (INR/ltr)

-2%

-6%

-3%

YoY growth in Diesel prices

-6%

-11%

66.6

68.5

68.9

68.6

68.4

66.1

68.7

67.8

68.1

-10%

69.0

-6%

-1%

68.2

69.0

70.9

67.7

Source: Industry

18 February 2020

Cement

NOTES

18 February 2020

Cement

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

Expected return (over 12-month)

BUY

>=15%

SELL

< - 10%

NEUTRAL

< - 10 % to 15%

UNDER REVIEW

Rating may undergo a change

NOT RATED

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within

following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

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********************************************************************************************************************************

18 February 2020

Cement

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18 February 2020