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What Recent History Suggests About New York Giants' 2015 NFL Draft Plan

Kevin Boilard@@KevinBoilardX.com LogoCorrespondent IMarch 31, 2015

Head coach Tom Coughlin leaves the draft plan up to general manager Jerry Reese.
Head coach Tom Coughlin leaves the draft plan up to general manager Jerry Reese.Julio Cortez/Associated Press

General managers defend draft secrets as if they're the goings-on of Area 51.

The speculation about these secrets reaches a new level during the month-long run-up to the draft. While free-agency acquisitions and team needs can provide hints about a GM's plans, the remaining gaps are filled with mock drafts and player comparisons—both of which are rarely brought to fruition.

But the best way to predict the future is to fully understand the past. When it comes to the New York Giants, we can get an idea of what general manager Jerry Reese might do in 2015 by taking a critical eye to his recent draft classes.

Do that and you're left with three clear clues to Reese's current draft plan.

They Won't Shy Away From A Playmaker With The Ninth Pick

Sure, the Giants have needs; so does every other team. Big Blue's biggest holes just happen to be at offensive line and safety, perhaps the two least sexy positions to draft in the first round.

Now, it's possible Reese is so concerned with his hole at right guard that he picks Iowa's Brandon Scherff to fill it right away. Maybe he's more worried about the defensive backfield, so he opts for Alabama's Landon Collins with the ninth overall selection. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller shared his thoughts on who the Giants should take at No. 9:

Matt Miller @nfldraftscout

Cooper. Playmaker > OG RT @zschwartz5: If both Scherff and Cooper are available at 9, who do you think the Giants would take?

Both of these options would make the Giants a better team, but Reese won't fail to realize the value of his top-10 pick. After all, it's the first one he's had since taking over as GM in 2007.

There's a school of draft thought that says to ignore the team's needs and instead select the best player available. This method maximizes the value of each pick and virtually eliminates the dreaded reach. History tells us that Reese is a likely subscriber.

This theory explains why New York didn't select a single tight end last spring, when the position appeared to be the team's biggest weakness. It also explains why Reese selected a receiver, Odell Beckham Jr. out of LSU, 12th overall when the Giants could have addressed a major need by snatching up a quality O-lineman in Notre Dame's Zack Martin.

Odell Beckham Jr.'s Rookie Year
GamesReceptionsYardsYards/GameTouchdowns
12911,305108.812
Pro-Football-Reference.com

Drafting by best-player available has a funny way of working itself out: Former undrafted rookie Larry Donnell ended up having a breakout season, and Beckham became the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year for his record-setting campaign.

If the Giants' 6-10 record in 2014 hasn't scared Reese away from this draft strategy, expect him to select a playmaker with the ninth overall pick. Receivers Amari Cooper of Alabama and Kevin White of West Virginia can't be ruled out of his plans and neither can pass-rushers Vic Beasley of Clemson and Randy Gregory of Nebraska.

They Will Target Prospects Who Can Start Immediately

In his 11 seasons as the New York Giants' head coach, the most repeated criticism of Tom Coughlin has been his reluctance to play rookies. Back when the team was winning Super Bowls, the reliance upon veteran talent was at least justified. Now that New York finds itself in more of a win-or-else situation, getting rookies who can contribute right away is more important than ever.

Reese has done more to help rectify this issue as of late. Instead of picking boom-or-bust projects, the GM has targeted more surefire prospects.

Kevin Boilard @247KevinBoilard

Looking back at the Giants' 2014 draft class. http://t.co/aGRUzNePDr

His 2013 first-round selection, Syracuse's Justin Pugh, started all 16 games of his rookie season at right tackle. Last year, Odell Beckham Jr. started 11 of the 12 games for which he was healthy. That's a total turnaround from the team's previous three first-round picks: Jason Pierre-Paul (no starts in 2010), Prince Amukamara (no starts in 2011) and David Wilson (two starts in 2012).

Some of New York's other recent picks have come along quickly, as well. Johnathan Hankins didn't contribute a lot as a rookie, but he became the defensive line's most imposing interior presence in 2014. His classmate, Damontre Moore, has shown signs of growth, too, even though he's been slow to snag a starting role at defensive end.

The 2014 draft class, however, serves as the best example of what Reese should be looking for this spring. It was a class full of major contributors, high-character guys who didn't need time to develop—what some might describe as "NFL-ready."

Justin Pugh battles Ndamukong Suh.
Justin Pugh battles Ndamukong Suh.Leon Halip/Getty Images

There are guys like this to be had in the middle and late rounds of every draft, waiting to be uncovered. They can step in and start right away, like fifth-round gem Devon Kennard did at strong-side linebacker last season. These are the rookies who will help New York win games in 2015.

Reese should have an eye on Virginia's Anthony Harris, a mid-round prospect who can solve New York's woes at safety. Harris can play center field (eight interceptions in 2013) and thump like a linebacker (108 tackles in 2014). Most importantly, he was named a captain of his Cavaliers as a senior.

They Will Find A Defensive Peg For Steve Spagnuolo To Build Around

Last year, Ben McAdoo got hooked up. Think about it: It's pretty tough to go wrong in your first year as offensive coordinator when all you have to do is call for Eli Manning to fling it in Odell Beckham Jr.'s direction.

Beckham became a national sensation for his otherworldly performances each week, as the exceptional rookie single-handedly turned a six-win team into must-watch television. Now, Reese is charged with finding New York's OBJ of the defense.

Steve Spagnuolo deserves the same treatment upon his return to the Giants' defensive coordinator role. He made improbable things happen—such as beating the undefeated New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII—when given superior defensive talents, such as Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck.

Now, back with the Giants for a second stint, Spagnuolo already has his Strahan in world-beater Jason Pierre-Paul. He may also have his Umenyiora in slender speed-rusher Damontre Moore. What Spags really needs is a new Tuck.

If Florida's Dante Fowler Jr. somehow falls to the Giants in the first round, he would be their pick. Fowler (6'3", 261 lbs) fits the Tuck mold and is explosive off the edge. Spagnuolo could line him up in a two- or three-point stance to get him on the field as much as possible.

However, if Fowler is already scooped up by the time the Giants pick, the rest of the pass-rushers in that range look more like 3-4 outside linebackers than 4-3 defensive ends. New York shouldn't settle for someone like Missouri's Shane Ray, if the fit is imperfect. After all, Tuck was a third-round selection out of Notre Dame in 2005.

Some defensive ends Reese should consider after the first round are Mississippi State's Preston Smith and Norfolk State's Lynden Trail. While few draft experts would consider Smith or Trail among the 2015 class' elite pass-rushing prospects, both players have the potential to become the NFL's next unheralded star.

Kevin Boilard writes about the New York Giants at Bleacher Report.