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As of 2017, about 2.25 million students were going to college completely online. More than half of them attended either public two-year schools, community colleges (33%), or for-profit intuitions (20%).
And there are problems.
First, those numbers are sourced to IPEDS, the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, but I snagged them from the newest annual edition of the CHLOE report (Changing Landscape of Online Education). This version, CHLOE3, is a survey of 280 “chief online officers” from all sectors of U.S. higher education and a collaboration between Quality Matters and Eduventures Research. As a survey of those responsible for online education programs, CHLOE3 respondents are overwhelming likely to be bullish on online education.
Even so, CHLOE3 is very helpful in spotting some serious issues. For example, CHLOE3 asked whether those online education officers thought student performance in online courses at their institution was better than on-the-ground alternatives, about the same or whether student performance online was worse than brick-and-desk options.
Nearly 60% of those responsible for online courses at the public two-year schools, the community colleges, said they thought student performance in online classes was worse than in on-the-ground classes. Less than 5% of online program leaders at community colleges said students did better in their programs.
Considering that one in three exclusive online students is in a program where almost 60% of the people running those programs say their “students performed more poorly,” that’s a big problem.
There are reasons that online and community colleges may not fit especially well. But if that’s the case, why are school leaders allowing so many to do it? Again, as of 2017, according CHLOE3/IPEDS, nearly three-quarters of a million community college students were studying exclusively online, a population that’s grown 13% since 2012.
Perceptions of poor performance by online program directors were not limited to community colleges. CHLOE3 also reported that chief online program leaders, “at nearly one-third of Regional Private institutions also report poorer performance by online students.”
It worth firing up a large warning lamp that so many of the people running these online programs think they are actually worse than the traditional, proven alternatives. And these are people who, more than likely, strongly support online education.
A second lamp needs to go on over the CHLOE3 finding that, as the for-profit college market collapses, for-profit colleges are becoming more and more reliant on online students. Already, a whopping 66% of all students in a for-profit college are studying exclusively online. For comparison, just 8% of students at public four-year schools are fully online.
That’s outrageous and unsustainable. Quoting CHLOE3, “For-profits are becoming more dependent on a delivery mode where they are rapidly losing share.” As the for-profit market tightens and shrinks, pressure will only increase to squeeze more profit from online students and – warning lamp time – that’s going to end badly for students as well as for online education overall.
Based on factors such as graduation rates, costs, employment outcomes, loan defaults and others, it’s clear that for-profit schools offer, on average, an inferior education. There’s no reason to think their online offerings are any better. In fact, there’s reason to suspect otherwise, and especially so if online programs become their profit lifelines.
Since that’s true, based on CHLOE3’s findings, it means that more than half of all full-time, online college students may be in programs or at schools that we can credibly believe are failing them. That’s the third in community college and the 20% in the for-profits.
Plus, let’s not forget, the one third of the leaders at the private schools who also told CHLOE3 that their programs had “poorer performance by online students.” And that's assuming every other online program is at least as good as other options, which is a big assumption. That's also with the knowledge that the schools counted by IPEDS/CHLOE3 are only the schools federally approved to take financial aid and loans - those that offer online "certificates" and "credentials" and "job training" and never qualify to accept aid, aren't counted at all.
While online college enrollments continue to grow – up 13% overall between 2012 and 2017 – it ought to be clear there is some serious rot in the system already. What’s less clear, warning lamps or not, is what anyone is willing to do about it.
