The outlook for US gross domestic product over the next four years is little changed from three months ago, according to the new first-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. However, the 39 forecasters surveyed revised upward their estimates of job growth in the next four quarters and see an improved outlook for the unemployment rate.

Growth in the US real gross domestic product this quarter will be 2.7% at an annual rate, down from the previous estimate of 2.8%. The current projection for growth in the annual-average level of real GDP in 2015 rose to 3.2% in this survey from the previous estimate of 3.0%.

The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will be an annual average of 5.4% in 2015, before falling to 5.1% in 2016, 5.0% in 2017 and 4.9% in 2018. These projections are below those of the last survey.

Estimated monthly jobs gains in 2015 were raised to 252,500, but estimated at 213,600 in 2016. 

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