12 May 2020
E
CO
S
COPE
The Economy Observer
IIP growth collapses in Mar’20
Real GVA/GDP growth could be ~1.5-2.0% in 4QFY20
In view of the nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, price collection for the Consumer
Price Index (CPI) was suspended from the last week of Mar’20. Thus, price points for major groups including ‘clothing
and footwear’, ‘fuel and light’, ‘housing’ for rural areas and ‘miscellaneous’ items were unavailable leading to non-
compilation of overall headline inflation for Apr’20
.
However, the CSO did compile inflation in the ‘food and beverages’ category (excluding
‘Meat and fish’ and ‘Prepared
meals, snacks, sweets, etc’).
As a result, CPI inflation in food (excluding the above mentioned items) came in at 12.0% YoY
in Apr’20 v/s 8.8% a month ago, in line with our much-feared expectation. This indicates that even if inflation in
‘miscellaneous’ items would have declined sharply – from 4.4% in Mar’20 to ~2% in Apr’20 – headline inflation would
have likely crossed 6.5% last month v/s 5.9% in Mar’20.
As for IIP, it came in much worse than MOFSL/market consensus’ estimated decline of 8.6%/8%. It dropped by 16.7% YoY
in Mar’20 as against growth of 4.6% a month ago and 2.7% a year ago. As a result of this massive decline in Mar’20, IIP in
4QFY20 declined 3.8% YoY.
Major reason for the decline in IIP was a record decrease in manufacturing activity in Mar20. Additionally, while mining
activity exhibited marginal decline, power generation declined at the fastest pace in 5 months in Mar’20. Notably, capital
goods production plunged more than 30% YoY in Mar’20 while construction and consumer non-durable goods declined in
the range of 15-25% YoY.
Overall, IIP declined 0.7% YoY in FY20. We expect IIP to decline by ~12% YoY in FY21E with around 44% fall in 1QFY21
alone. Moreover, due to the worse-than-expected Mar’20 IIP, our
EAI-GVA
actually declined 6% YoY in Mar’20 compared
with our preliminary estimate of ~4% fall. This implies that real GVA/GDP growth could be 1.5-2.0% in 4QFY20.
I.
Apr’20 food inflation at 12.0% YoY v/s 8.8% a month ago
In view of the imposed nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of the
COVID-19 pandemic, price collection for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was
suspended from 19
th
Mar’20. Owing to this suspension, price points for major
groups including ‘clothing and footwear’, ‘fuel and light’, ‘housing’ for rural
areas and ‘miscellaneous’ items was not compiled leading to non-compilation of
overall headline inflation for Apr’20.
The CSO did compile inflation in the ‘food and beverages’ category (excluding
‘Meat and fish’ and ‘Prepared meals, snacks, sweets etc’).
As a result, CPI
inflation in food came in at 12.0% YoY in Apr’20 v/s 8.8% a month ago (Exhibit
1).
As for few major items in the food basket, inflation in ‘cereals and products’
rose to almost 71-month high of 7.8% YoY in Apr’20 and that of ‘pulses and
products’ rose to 45-month high of 22.8% YoY during the month. Inflation in
‘vegetables’ came in at 23.6% YoY in Apr’20, higher than 18.6% a month ago but
much lower than 31.6% YoY in Feb’20. Notably, CPI inflation in ‘fruits’ was at 7-
month low of 2.7% YoY in Apr’20 v/s 3.6% a month ago (Exhibit
2).
The rise in food inflation was in line with our much-feared expectation. Even if
inflation in ‘miscellaneous’ items would have fallen to ~2% from 4.4% in Mar’20,
headline inflation would have likely come at ~6.5% in Apr’20 v/s 5.9% in Mar’20.
Nikhil Gupta – Research Analyst
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1555
Yaswi Agarwal
– Research Analyst
(Yaswi.Agarwal@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 7193 4196
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 1:
Food inflation at 3-month high…
Food inflation (% YoY)
Exhibit 2:
…due to higher inflation in major food items
10
Cereals & Products
Vegetables (RHS)
Pulses & Products
18.0
14.7
14.0
12.0
10.8
7.6
0.4
1.6
4.6
2.4
8.8
(% YoY)
6.6
80
60
40
23.6
20
0
13.0
8.0
3.0
-2.0
8
6
4
2
0
Excluding ‘Meat and Fish’ and ‘Prepared Meals, snacks, sweets etc.’
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), MOFSL
II. Industrial output growth collapses in Mar’20
Highest decline in IIP since new series began in 2011-12…:
Much worse than
our estimate (decline of 8.6%) and market consensus (decline of 8%), IIP
dropped by 16.7% YoY in Mar’20 as against growth of 4.6% a month ago and
2.7% a year ago. Feb’20 IIP has also been revised from 4.5% earlier to 4.6%.
(Exhibit
3).
As a result of this massive decline in Mar’20, IIP in 4QFY20 declined
3.8% YoY, higher than the decline of 1.4% a quarter ago
(Exhibit 4).
...driven by record decline in manufacturing activity:
Major reason for the
decline in IIP was a record decline in manufacturing activity in Mar’20.
Additionally, while mining activity exhibited no growth, power generation
declined at the fastest pace in 5 months in Mar’20. Manufacturing production
declined 20.6% YoY and electricity declined 6.8% YoY in Mar’20
(Exhibit 5).
Each
of the 15 sub-industries, which account for 58% weight in manufacturing,
declined during the month. These industries include heavy weights such as basic
metals, coke and refined petroleum products, chemicals and pharmaceuticals,
among others. Overall, in 4QFY20, manufacturing production declined 5.8% YoY
compared to a decline of 1.1% a quarter ago. While power generation grew
2.2% YoY, mining activity grew 4.4% YoY in 4QFY20
(Exhibit 6).
All use-based categories within IIP declined in Mar’20:
While
infrastructure/construction activity declined at the highest pace (since the new
series began in 2011-12) of 23.8% YoY, capital goods production declined faster
by 35.6% YoY in Mar’20. Production of even primary and intermediate goods,
which had been holding up the overall IIP since the past couple of months,
witnessed massive declines in Mar’20. Consumer goods production decreased
23.2% YoY in Mar’20 due to decline in production of both durable and non-
durable goods
(Exhibit 7).
4QFY20 real GDP growth might come in at 1.5-2.0%:
Overall, IIP declined 0.7%
YoY in FY20. We expect it to decline by ~12% YoY in FY21E with around 44% fall
in 1QFY21 alone. Moreover, due to the worse-than-expected IIP in Mar’20, our
EAI-GVA
actually declined 6% YoY in Mar’20 compared with our preliminary
estimate of ~4% decline. This implies that real GVA/GDP growth could be 1.5-
2.0% in 4QFY20.
12 May 2020
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 3:
IIP growth collapsed in Mar’20…
Exhibit 4:
…leading to higher decline in 4QFY20
IIP growth
(% YoY)
5.9
5.4
5.1
4.4
4.5
4.2
4.2
3.8
3.7
3.1 3.3
3.0
2.4
1.5
1.2
-0.4
-1.4
-16.7
(3.8)
Q4 FY14 Q4 FY15 Q4 FY16 Q4 FY17 Q4 FY18 Q4 FY19 Q4 FY20
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), MOFSL
IIP growth
5.3 3.8
6.5
4.8
0.2
1.6 2.7
1.3
(% YoY)
2.1 4.6
0.4
2.1
-1.4
-6.6
Mar-18
Jul-18
Nov-18 Mar-19
Jul-19
Nov-19 Mar-20
Exhibit 5:
Manufacturing/power declined massively…
Mining
4.5
2.7 3.2
Manufacturing
4.9
1.3
-1.4
2.1
Electricity
0.4
2.1
4.6
IIP
Exhibit 6:
…and manufacturing declined in 4QFY20
Mining
9.0
7.0
5.0
3.0
1.0
-1.0
-3.0
-5.0
Manufacturing
Electricity
IIP
-4.6
-6.6
-16.7
Mar/19 May/19
Jul/19
Sep/19
Nov/19
Jan/20
Mar/20
-3.8
Source: CSO, MOFSL
Exhibit 7:
All used-based categories exhibited sharp falls
Primary
Consumer
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
Mar/19 May/19 Jul/19
Sep/19 Nov/19 Jan/20 Mar/20
Capital
Infra/cons
Intermediate
Exhibit 8:
IIP low due to very low manufacturing activity
100
80
60
40
20
0
Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19
Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), MOFSL
< last year
(%)
<0%
< 5%
12 May 2020
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 9:
IIP and key components (% YoY)
% Y-o-Y
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity
IIP
Basic Goods
Capital Goods
Intermediate Goods
Infrastructure/Construction
Consumer Goods
Durable Goods
Non-Durable Goods
IIP excl Food Products
IIP excl Capital Goods
Weight
14.4
77.6
8.0
100.0
34.0
8.2
17.2
12.3
28.2
12.8
15.3
94.7
91.8
FY18
2.3
4.7
5.3
4.4
3.7
4.0
2.3
5.6
6.2
0.8
10.5
4.2
4.5
FY19
2.8
3.8
5.2
3.8
3.5
2.7
0.9
7.3
4.6
5.5
4.0
3.4
3.9
FY20
Mar-19
Jan-20
Industry-based classification
1.7
0.8
4.3
(1.3)
3.1
1.6
1.1
2.2
3.1
(0.7)
2.7
2.1
Use-based classification
0.8
2.6
1.8
(13.7)
(9.1)
(4.3)
8.8
12.4
15.9
(4.0)
5.1
(2.3)
(3.3)
(0.6)
(1.7)
(8.4)
(3.2)
(3.8)
0.6
1.4
(0.3)
Other classifications
0.7
2.4
2.3
0.0
3.7
2.5
Feb-20
9.7
3.1
11.5
4.6
8.3
(9.5)
19.4
(0.1)
(1.4)
(5.8)
1.5
Mar-20
0.0
(20.6)
(6.8)
(16.7)
(3.1)
(35.6)
(18.5)
(23.8)
(23.2)
(33.1)
(16.2)
5.0
(17.0)
5.7
(15.2)
Source: CSO, MOFSL
12 May 2020
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
> - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In
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days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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12 May 2020
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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12 May 2020
6