Opposition views of Carwyn Jones

By Adrian Browne BBC Wales political reporter

Hello, goodbye: Rhodri Morgan congratulates his successor as Welsh Labour leader, Carwyn Jones

We've heard a lot from Labour figures over the last 24 hours or so about Carwyn Jones's victory in the Welsh party leadership election.

I was interested to discover what the other three political parties really make of the man due to take over from Rhodri Morgan as first minister next week.

I spoke to leading figures within the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and Liberal Democrats, on the basis of anonymity, to allow them to be as frank as possible.

I began with Labour's coalition partner Plaid Cymru, key to Mr Jones's role as first minister until the next assembly election in May 2011.

A senior Plaid politician was encouraged by the "very strong party mandate" he received, with 52% of the vote, putting Mr Jones, they said, in a good position to honour the terms of the One Wales coalition deal, including the commitment to hold a referendum on further assembly law-making powers.

They did, by the way, believe that he was personally committed to the One Wales agreement.

The Plaid source also felt that Mr Jones, should he face a choice between the good of the party or the good of Wales, would always favour Wales, something they said that has always been the case for Rhodri Morgan and Plaid leader and Deputy First Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones.

Good communication skills can only take you so far; before long, a first minister should expect to be judged on what they are genuinely achieving in the job One Plaid Cymru voice

But my Plaid confidant had some reservations about the new Welsh leader, suggesting he did not really have a "strong track record for delivery" since dealing with the foot and mouth crisis as rural affairs minister, apart from a few measures in areas such as planning.

In other words, good communication skills can only take you so far; before long, a first minister should expect to be judged on what they are genuinely achieving in the job.

Not unexpectedly, this Plaid insider said Mr Jones would need to work to establish a successful relationship with the other Mr Jones, Ieuan Wyn, as Rhodri Morgan had done.

Put his foot down

The advice from this Plaid corner was for the new leader to insist on getting out of the office a lot and talking to people across Wales.

It might sound obvious and glib, but that can be easier said than done when in office.

Civil servants can easily fill the first minister's diary from dawn to way beyond dusk with meetings and paperwork. But the view here was that direct conversations with people at the sharp end of the economy and government decisions offer a much better idea of "real world" events.

The Plaid politician I consulted suggested he should put his foot down about this.

While they are political allies in the assembly government, Plaid and Labour will, of course, be adversaries at the 2010 general election and the assembly election the following year.

The Plaid figure agreed that having a Labour leader without the remarkable popularity and profile of Rhodri Morgan offered opportunities for Ieuan Wyn Jones to take on Carwyn Jones on a more equal footing in these polls.

But there is a concession that the general election will be more about Brown v Cameron, rather than Jones v Jones.

Carwyn Jones will work alongside the Plaid leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones

After raising expectations with talk of a Labour "fight back", it was suggested he should now be careful to manage those expectations, because there is only so much Welsh Labour can do when the UK party and prime minister are in a deep hole.

Whiff of defeatism

A senior Conservative figure I spoke to found Mr Jones likeable and approachable. But there was a warning that he would need to demonstrate "energy, commitment and hard work" as first minister, after achieving "no great success" thus far, other than during his time as agriculture minister.

This is the "nothing since foot and mouth" criticism.

"The jury is out on him" was the bottom line from my Conservative - although there was an emphasis that Tories did not and would not underestimate him, given his communication skills.

There was agreement with the Plaid Cymru warning of dangers for Mr Jones of pinning his reputation on a Labour fightback in Wales.

That ran the risk that he could take more blame than would otherwise be the case for a bad general election result and become a diminished figure.

'Rhodri-lite'

The Liberal Democrat I spoke to welcomed Mr Jones as a "consensual figure", well suited to the consensus politics of the assembly.

But there was the criticism I also heard during the leadership campaign from politicians in the other other parties, that he comes across as "Rhodri-lite" - a less substantial version of his predecessor.

My Lib Dem also accused him of having sometimes seemed a little "vague and unhelpful" with opposition politicians genuinely seeking to do right by their constituents in the past.

One of the remarkable features of Rhodri Morgan was his ability to get away with errors of judgement because of his popularity and likeability.

But while "Rhodri is Rhodri" offered a get out of jail free card from time to time, his successor is unlikely to believe "Carwyn is Carwyn" will wash in the same way.

The warning from my Lib Dem was that supporters can turn, and that Mr Jones is likely to face, after his initial honeymoon period, much harsher judgement than his predecessor at such difficult times for Labour.

The advice, from this helpful Lib Dem opponent, was that Mr Jones should use his election mandate to turn Labour in Wales into a "real Welsh party".

The suggestion, albeit from a partisan source, was that Labour, for all its claims, has never really embraced devolution properly, and Mr Jones now had an opportunity to change that if he really wanted to.

No doubt some, perhaps much, of the above would be dismissed by Mr Jones as being in the "they would say that wouldn't they" category.

But there might just be the odd nugget of truth in there too.

In six months we will see whether their views have changed.

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