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The two most accurate computer models show accumulating snow in the shaded areas, but not heavy snow Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
(Mark Torregrossa)
There is better news for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day traveling here in Michigan.
I've been following a potential Christmas Eve and Christmas morning storm system. It certainly looks like that will still happen, but I don't think it will be what we would call a "major" storm system here in Michigan.
The two most accurate computer models we look at are still showing accumulating snow in much of Michigan, but also still have different forecasts. The top graphic shows the difference between the two models.
Both models agree that this won't be a huge snowstorm for Michigan.
With the current data here are some details of the Christmas Eve and Christmas Day weather.
Rain before Christmas Eve
We are going to be well above freezing in most all of Michigan for Monday, Tuesday, and most of Christmas Eve day. So any precipitation during that time should be rain in the southern half of Lower Michigan. Northern Michigan could have a few periods of freezing rain Monday night. I'll have to fine tune that part of the forecast for you Monday. The Upper Peninsula could have snow Monday and Tuesday, but with temperatures just above freezing, roads should be tolerable.
So generally, driving conditions Monday and Tuesday should just be wet.
Cold air slow to arrive
The trend is for cold enough air to change rain to snow to be running about six hours slower. It looks like both computer models project a changeover from rain to snow between 9 p.m. Christmas Eve and 3 a.m. Christmas morning. This means there will be less precipitation falling after temperatures are cold enough for snow.
That is why both computer models only forecast an inch or two of snow in most of southern Lower Michigan.
Even when temperatures aloft have cooled enough for snow, the surface temperatures may still be 32 to 34 degrees Christmas Eve and Christmas morning. Salt will work well at those temperatures, if even needed.
So we could wake up Christmas morning to anywhere from a dusting to two inches of snow on the grass. That would be perfect, according to most.
Wind still looks strong
Gusty winds will still be a factor Christmas Day. Look for wind gusts between 30 MPH and 40 MPH. Normally this can produce a lot of blowing snow. But- if temperatures are only near freezing, that snow will be sticky and wet. It won't blow around a lot.
Storm moves east quickly
The storm won't stick around Michigan long. By noon Christmas Day the snow should be over. There is even some indication temperatures could pop up to 34 to 36 degrees. This again would help greatly improve road conditions.
So we are going to have some winter weather, but currently it doesn't look like a super messy situation.
There is still a lot of time for things to change. The best I can do is give you the latest, most likely situation. Certainly keep an eye on the Christmas Eve and Christmas Day travel weather with me. Right now though I wouldn't worry a whole lot about altering your travel plans. It just make take a little extra time to get where you are going.
If you have any weather questions, ask them below.
MLive Chief Meteorologist Mark Torregrossa has been forecasting Michigan weather for more than 20 years. He's been chief meteorologist at three television news stations in Michigan, and he's an avid gardener and hunter. Email him at mtorregr@mlive.com and find him on Facebook at facebook.com/mark.torregrossa and Twitter @weathermanmark