In times of economic strife, one barometer could typically be counted on to assess the state of the economy. If the “lipstick index” or “lipstick effect,” a phrase coined by Estée Lauder chairman Leonard Lauder decades ago to track sales of lip products, was up, consumers were investing in small, affordable luxuries and the economy was typically in bad shape. Yet in 2020, the economy is clearly in turmoil, but lipstick sales are down—way down.