Sector Update | 27 February 2020
Automobiles
BS4 inventory clearance underway for 2Ws/CVs
2Ws awaiting pre-buy | CV inventory largely cleared
Our interaction with leading industry channel partners indicates that BS4 inventory
clearance is underway across segments. Wholesales are expected to decline YoY in
Feb’20 for all OEMs due to the transitory issues for BS6 vehicles and the weak demand
environment. For 2Ws and CVs, inquiries and conversions have remained weak,
whereas for PVs (particularly for MSIL) conversion could have been better but for exit
from diesel. 2W customers continue to delay buying with expectation of higher
transitory discounts. CV sales continued to decline with low demand visibility from
construction activities and financiers playing cautious to avoid risk of unregistered BS4
vehicles. Tractor sales grew marginally due to the upcoming harvest season, but
demand visibility from construction activity remains low.
In Feb’20, wholesale volumes are estimated to decline ~20%/~11%/~35% YoY for
2Ws/PVs/CVs due to stopping of BS4 production. Tractors are expected to grow by
~5.5% YoY.
2Ws: Demand remains weak due to bleak sentiment, absence of expected heavy
discounts on BS4 variants, and confusion among buyers to purchase expensive BS6
variants. System inventory stood at 30-35 days across OEMs, whereas dealers
remained confident on liquidating BS4 stock in anticipation of pre-buy by mid-Mar’20.
We expect wholesales to decline by 7% YoY for BJAUT (20% fall in dom. 2W), 28% YoY
for TVSL and 25% for HMCL, as all OEMs stopped BS4 production in Feb’20. RE volumes
are expected to remain flat at 62.5k with limited supplies of BS4 variants.
PVs: Retail enquires were intact, but conversions were flat due to unavailability of BS4
variants and buyers postponing purchase of BS6 variants. In case of MSIL,
unavailability of diesel variant impacted conversions marginally. Volumes are expected
to decline ~6% for MSIL. Wholesales are expected to decline by ~11% YoY for M&M’s
UV (incl. pick-ups) and by ~23% YoY for TTMT’s PVs as they stopped BS4 production.
CVs: Poor visibility on infrastructure/construction activity and financiers turning
cautious ahead of BS6 transition (to avoid risk of financing an unregistered BS4 vehicle)
kept CV demand weak in Feb’20. Inventory levels have fallen substantially as dealers
focused on clearing BS4 vehicles to avoid unsold inventory. This in turn has resulted in
a substantial drop in discounts. We expect CV wholesales to decline ~32% YoY for
TTMT (-47% for M&HCVs) and ~49% YoY for AL (-59% for M&HCVs).
Tractors: Good demand from the upcoming harvest season but weakness in
construction activities resulted in a marginal improvement in demand across OEMs.
Moreover, low visibility on demand from the infrastructure segment continued to act
as a hurdle in strong demand pullback. We expect tractor volumes to improve ~5% YoY
for M&M and ~6% for Escorts.
Demand has remained muted for 2Ws/CVs in Feb’20, particularly in the run up to the BS6
transition. Sustenance of demand recovery and smooth transition to BS6 hold key to the
stock performance of auto companies. Over the next 12-15 months, our preference lies
with PVs over CVs/2Ws as the segment is likely to (a) be the least impacted by BS6
transition and (b) face lower risk from EVs and competition, in turn reflecting better
earnings growth. Our top picks in autos are MSIL and EIM among large-caps, and AL and
ENDU among mid-caps.
Jinesh Gandhi - Research analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1524
Aanshul Agarawal - Research analyst
(Aanshul.Agarawal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 7193 4337
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
27 February 2020
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
Exhibit 1: Snapshot of volumes for Feb-20
YoY
Company Sales
Maruti Suzuki
Total Domestic
Export
Mahindra & Mahindra
UV (incl. pick-ups)
Tractors
Tata Motors
HCV's
LCV's
CV's
Cars
UV's
Hero MotoCorp
Bajaj Auto
Ashok Leyland
CV (ex LCV)
LCV
TVS Motor
Eicher Motors
Royal Enfield
VECV
Escorts
Feb-20
139,500
130,500
9,000
66,900
38,500
20,000
42,500
9,500
19,000
28,500
9,500
4,500
465,000
365,500
9,250
5,500
3,750
216,400
62,500
5,290
7,650
Feb-19
148,682
139,100
9,582
74,983
48,846
18,978
60,151
17,968
23,914
41,882
10,426
7,843
617,215
393,089
18,245
13,291
4,954
299,353
62,630
6,428
7,240
MoM
YoY (%)
MoM
Jan-20
chg
(%) chg
-6.2
154,123
-9.5
-6.2
144,499
-9.7
-6.1
9,624
-6.5
-10.8
75,662
-11.6
-21.2
43,393
-11.3
5.4
23,116
-13.5
-29.3
47,862
-11.2
-47.1
12,068
-21.3
-20.5
21,792
-12.8
-32.0
33,860
-15.8
-8.9
9,775
-2.8
-42.6
4,227
6.5
-24.7 501,622
-7.3
-7.0
394,473
-7.3
-49.3
11,850
-21.9
-58.6
7,754
-29.1
-24.3
4,096
-8.4
-27.7 234,920
-7.9
-0.2
-17.7
5.7
63,520
5,544
6,063
-1.6
-4.6
26.2
FY20 YTD
1,471,895
1,375,697
96,198
768,807
406,423
285,741
462,319
118,964
214,957
333,921
71,537
56,861
6,041,830
4,383,224
120,851
74,910
45,941
3,081,868
658,990
47,926
79,623
FY19 YTD (%) chg
1,704,373
1,606,087
98,286
856,392
468,591
310,748
656,798
201,145
260,605
461,750
124,485
70,563
7,239,436
4,626,152
175,826
126,822
49,004
3,588,418
765,267
64,293
84,507
-13.6
-14.3
-2.1
-10.2
-13.3
-8.0
-29.6
-40.9
-17.5
-27.7
-42.5
-19.4
-16.5
-5.3
-31.3
-40.9
-6
-14.1
-13.9
-25.5
-5.8
FY20
estimate
1,587,875
1,486,975
100,901
817,788
428,571
306,975
507,688
132,485
229,101
361,586
80,183
65,919
6,528,390
4,719,283
129,681
80,692
48,988
3,335,580
722,321
53,742
92,073
Gr. (%)
-14.7
-15.2
-7.2
-12.9
-18.0
-7.1
-30.6
-41.1
-22.3
-30.4
-39.0
-17.7
-16.5
-6.0
-34.3
-43.5
-10.1
-14.8
-12.6
-26.3
-4.5
Residual
Monthly
Run rate
115,980
111,278
4,703
48,981
22,148
21,234
45,369
13,521
14,144
27,665
8,646
9,058
486,560
336,059
8,830
5,782
3,047
253,712
63,331
5,816
12,450
Exhibit 2: Comparative Valuation
Auto OEM's
Bajaj Auto
Hero MotoCorp
TVS Motor
M&M
Maruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Eicher Motors
Escorts
Auto Ancillaries
Bharat Forge
Exide Industries
Amara Raja
BOSCH
Endurance Tech
Motherson Sumi
Mahindra CIE
CEAT
CMP
(INR)
2,937
2,111
439
493
6,286
145
76
17,054
818
462
171
681
13,167
987
109
138
1,012
Rating
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
TP
(INR)
3,400
2,504
460
686
8,000
228
95
25,350
782
581
222
885
15,150
1,260
146
191
1,250
P/E (x)
FY20E
FY21E
16.4
15.3
13.4
12.3
33.0
25.2
13.9
11.7
31.4
24.0
302.7
13.3
74.7
25.4
22.9
19.4
14.2
12.7
28.9
16.9
17.5
31.5
23.8
26.3
14.6
18.2
22.7
16.5
17.3
28.0
21.4
17.9
10.3
14.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY20E FY21E
12.4
10.6
8.1
7.4
16.1
12.6
9.8
9.0
19.8
15.0
3.2
2.5
21.9
12.4
19.5
16.2
12.9
10.8
16.6
9.9
10.4
24.8
11.7
8.0
6.7
8.3
13.9
9.4
9.4
20.1
10.4
5.6
5.9
7.4
RoE (%)
FY20E FY21E
22.5
21.5
23.7
23.9
17.8
20.4
11.1
10.4
11.9
14.4
0.3
5.9
3.7
11.2
20.8
20.8
17.5
16.8
13.3
13.2
18.7
14.8
21.0
11.2
8.0
7.9
15.6
12.4
16.7
17.2
20.3
15.0
10.4
9.4
Div Yield (%)
FY20E FY21E
2.2
2.4
4.3
4.5
0.9
0.9
2.0
2.0
1.3
1.4
0.0
0.2
3.0
3.0
0.7
0.7
0.4
0.4
1.4
1.9
1.4
0.5
1.0
1.0
0.0
1.2
1.4
1.9
1.4
0.7
1.2
1.5
0.0
1.3
EPS CAGR
(%)
FY19-21E
7.7
0.7
11.2
-0.7
2.8
LTP
-34.2
4.0
9.9
-4.1
6.9
18.0
-6.8
13.0
9.2
0.2
3.3
Source: MOFSL
27 February 2020
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
NOTES
27 February 2020
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
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27 February 2020
4