14 June
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2019
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CRU, global producers point at continuing aluminum deficit
Excess inventory build-up could be erased by 2020-21
CRU, a commodity-focused global analytical firm, recently hosted a call highlighting its
view on the aluminum market trends. It expects the aluminum market to remain in deficit
in 2019 on account of (a) the lack of new investments and (b) the closures of illegal Chinese
capacity, despite muted demand expectations (ex-China: <1% growth). Furthermore,
inventory (in days of consumption) is trending down toward the 2007 levels. According to
CRU, LME prices will have to increase to ~USD2,200/t for new smelters to be economical.
We note that global aluminum producers (Alcoa, Rusal and Hydro) have also maintained a
similar stance. With continuing deficit and lower inventory days, LME prices are likely to
increase over the medium term. This would be positive for Nalco and Hindalco.
Smelter investments at historical low
Aluminum smelter capex outside China has been at historical lows, given the
low LME prices. CRU noted that upcoming capacities by Rusal would require
LME prices of ~US2,200/t for their viability. Besides, planned smelting
capacities, such as that in Vietnam, are facing financing issues, given the low
LME prices (currently at ~USD1,750).
CRU highlighted that a few capacities outside of China have permanently closed
due to low LME prices and higher operating cost. In fact, aluminum production
outside of China has not grown over the last five years, even as demand has
increased.
The analytical firm also highlighted that the smelters in Australia and some parts
of Europe would come under pressure at LME prices of USD1,650-1,700.
Further, if section 232 of tariffs were to be done away, the plants restarted in
the US would no longer be profitable.
New smelter investments in China have also become difficult due to supply-side
reforms and environment initiatives. About 4-5mt of illegal smelting capacity
was closed in China. New capacities can only be built by replacing old plants.
Rusal notes that regulator actions like winter cuts, capping on coal consumption,
the launch of the national carbon market and the shutdown of capacities that
breach the environment norms will create barriers for unreasonable new
capacity addition in China.
Chinese operating smelter capacities have not grown over the last two years,
despite new ramp-ups (Exhibit 1)
CRU noted that China’s aluminum demand will increase by ~0.9mt annually,
even after building in the likelihood of weaker demand. China will need new
smelter capacities by mid-2020s, according to CRU.
Inventory days continue declining
CRU noted that inventories in days of consumption have fallen to the pre-global
financial crisis (GFC) levels. The period since GFC saw a sharp build-up in
inventory as production continued but demand took a hit.
Dhruv Muchhal – Research Analyst
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1549
Aniket Mittal
– Research Analyst
(Aniket.Mittal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1572
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
14 June 2019
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
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Metals
The reduction in inventory has been sharper outside of China, as noted by Hydro
(Exhibit 2). Inventory days outside China have fallen to ~30 from a peak of ~75
and ~25-30 pre-GFC. Inventory days in China have also fallen but are still high at
~70 as of end-1QCY19. Recent SHFE inventory data (Exhibit 5) is indicating a
sharp fall in inventory over the past few months, which, in our view, is due to
slow but still growing demand and falling production in China.
CRU expects the inventory built up during the 2008-11 period to be eliminated
by 2020-21.
Demand moderating, but market to remain in deficit
CRU noted that growth in aluminum demand ex-China is expected to be muted
at <1% amid the ongoing backdrop of trade wars and slowing global demand.
In case of China, while the government has undertaken stimulus measures to
revive its economy, the current program mostly entails tax cuts and not higher
government investments (as witnessed previously). Thus, the impact on
investment-related commodities should not be significant. Demand growth for
aluminum in China is likely to be at 2.5%, according to CRU.
China’s restriction on aluminum scrap imports from the US – in retaliation to the
US’ trade actions – is also impacting primarily aluminum demand outside of
China. The increase in supply of secondary aluminum (through scrap) is partly
negating the influence of deficit in primary aluminum ex-China.
CRU noted that the aluminum market would remain in deficit for 2019, despite
lower demand growth. Overall aluminum consumption is likely to grow at 1.7%
in 2019 (v/s 3% in 2018).
Alcoa, as per its last update, also expects the aluminum market to be in deficit in
2019. It expects a deficit of 1.7-1.9mt ex-China and a marginal surplus of 0-
0.2mt in China. The deficit is based on global aluminum demand growth
estimate of ~2-3%. Hydro, on the other hand, expects a global aluminum deficit
of ~1.4-1.6mt, explained by 1.5-1.7mt deficit ex-China and 0.1mt surplus in
China.
Cost curve flattening
CRU highlighted that smelters in China have been replaced with newer, more
efficient technology, thereby reducing costs. Further, smelters are being
relocated from east China to regions such as Inner Mongolia, which have lower
costs of power. Accordingly, the cost curve for aluminum has flattened.
Production cost for the 90
th
percentile smelter is now 1.75x of the lowest
smelter (v/s 2.5x in 2003). Given the flattening cost curve, the margins for the
first quartile of smelters are lower. Hence, incentive for investment in aluminum
smelter has decreased.
Alumina has limited downside risk
3.25mt of Chinese alumina capacities have faced closures due to improper
disposition of red mud. However, CRU noted that inspection teams have visited
the site and these capacities can be restarted in eight weeks’ time upon
approval.
CRU expects alumina prices to decrease to ~USD320 on the back of restart of
Chinese capacities along with restart of Alunorte refinery (additional supply of
2
14 June 2019

Metals
3.1mt). Prices though are unlikely to sustain at such levels as 50% of Chinese
alumina refineries would be making losses, leading to subsequent closures.
China exports moving up the value chain
China’s aluminum exports are moving toward higher-value products. While
reported product exports stand at 5.8mt, China is increasingly exporting finished
products with aluminum usage such as air-conditioners, auto components,
insulated cables and fabricated goods. The estimated exports in the form of
finished products are ~6mt (v/s 2.5mt in 2011).
Higher LME provides upside for Nalco, Hindalco
Even as LME prices are down ~8% since the beginning of the year, we note that
spreads (i.e. all-in aluminum – alumina – power cost) have improved for the
non-integrated smelters (Exhibit 4). Alumina and coal cost, the two key drivers
of aluminum CoP, have corrected by ~7% and 36%, respectively, since the
beginning of the year. Aluminum prices exhibit a strong correlation with the
marginal cost of production (Exhibit 3). Thus, while global demand for aluminum
has been weak, the impact on LME was accentuated by the decline in cost of
production, in our view.
We believe there is limited scope for cost of production to fall further. Alumina
is already close to the marginal cost of production. Coal prices are also closing
near. Carbon product input prices are stabilizing, indicating that future
correction in carbon product prices should be limited. Between the factors of
demand, supply and cost of production that drives prices, we believe supply and
cost of production have limited scope to surprise negatively. If demand
continues, even though low, the expectation of a deficit should drive LME
higher. Low inventories levels will support the increase in prices.
CRU believe that a sudden price increase in aluminum is unlikely, as was seen in
case of zinc in 2016 when a similar situation was developing and prices shot up
by ~85% in a short while (Exhibit 6). It believes that the influence of deficit will
first be visible in an increase in physical premiums.
At spot LME, Hindalco/Nalco are trading at 5.7/4x EV/EBITDA versus the long-
term average of ~7.2/7.8x. We are building in LME prices of USD1,856/1,900 for
FY20/21. Every USD100/t higher LME will boost EBITDA of HNDL/NACL by 5/19%
and TP by INR22/INR8. With fully integrated operations, HNDL and NACL will be
the key beneficiaries of higher LME prices. Maintain
Buy.
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Chinese operating smelter
capacity has not increased
despite ramp-up of new
smelters.
Exhibit 1: China operating smelter capacity - mt
Source: Rusal
Aluminum inventory days
are close to levels seen
before GFC.
Exhibit 2: Global aluminum inventories in tonnes and days
Source: Hydro
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Metals
Exhibit 3: LME and 90 percentile of smelter cost curve
th
Source: Hydro
Exhibit 4: Aluminum spreads for non-integrated smelters
Spreads have improved
despite fall in LME.
Source: Hydro
SHFE aluminum inventory
has been declining
Exhibit 5: SHFE aluminum inventory
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
SHFE aluminum inventory
Source: Bloomberg
14 June 2019
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Zinc prices had increased
sharply in 2016 on the back
of a deficit
Exhibit 6: Zinc LME spot prices (USD/t)
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
Zinc Spot
Prices rose ~85%
from its lows
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 7: Nalco – EV/EBITDA
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
EV/EBITDA (x)
Min (x)
Avg (x)
+1SD
Max (x)
-1SD
19.5
12.4
7.8
3.2
1.3
3.7
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
Exhibit 8: Hindalco – EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA (x)
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Avg (x)
Max (x)
Min (x)
+1SD
-1SD
10.1
8.7
5.7
7.2
5.7
4.3
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
14 June 2019
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Exhibit 9: Nalco – Target price calculations (INR m)
EBITDA
EV/EBITDA (x)
Target EV
add: CWIP
add: cash surplus
Equity Value
Target Price
FY17
10,797
FY18
16,783
FY19
29,561
5.0
147,807
8,827
35,772
FY20E
16,527
5.0
82,637
13,827
29,194
125,658
65
FY21E
17,841
5.0
89,207
18,827
27,408
135,442
Source: MOFSL
5,660
35,084
9,152
33,619
Exhibit 10: Hindalco – Target price calculations (INR m)
Y/E March
EBITDA
EV/EBTIDAx
Target EV
Net Debt
EQ = (EV-net Debt)
A. INR/share(EQ)
CWIP
AA. INR/share (CWIP)
Eq. Value (A+AA) INR/sh.
2017
124,359
2018
138,204
6.0
829,222
400,543
428,679
192
20,629
9
2019
155,105
6.0
930,631
387,731
542,900
244
40,971
18
2020E
171,338
6.0
1,028,031
547,894
480,137
216
82,325
37
253
2021E
174,334
6.0
1,046,007
493,396
552,611
248
111,703
50
465,385
Source: Bloomberg
14 June 2019
7

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NOTES
14 June 2019
8

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Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
< - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
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following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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14 June 2019
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