LANSING, MI — Well, that escalated quickly.
Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder and Democratic challenger Mark Schauer are running neck-and-neck just days out from the general election, according to a new statewide poll from a firm that showed Snyder with a larger lead just one week ago.
The EPIC-MRA survey of 600 likely voters suggests that 45 percent would vote for the Republican incumbent if the election were held today, compared to 43 percent for Schauer. Three precent backed third-party candidates.
In the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic Congressman Gary Peters continues to poll well. Fifty percent of voters said they’d back him, compared to just 35 percent for Republican Terri Lynn Land.
Snyder’s two percentage point lead in the poll, conducted Sunday through Tuesday, falls within the margin of error of plus or minus four points, and nine percent of respondents remain undecided.
Most of those undecideds have voted for Democrats in the past, according to EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn, who credited Schauer with better messaging in recent television ads discussing schools and the economy.
“Schauer has picked up dramatically among independents,” said Porn. “He’s getting almost as many Republican voters as Snyder is Democrats. If he can solidify the vote amongst Democrats and African Americans he has a real shot.”
The latest numbers are much closer than a similar EPIC-MRA poll released last week showing Snyder with an eight percentage point lead. Snyder lost two points since then, while Schauer picked up four.
“As we’ve always said, Rick Snyder is still stuck in the mid-40s and this poll shows that Mark has all the momentum in this race," said Schauer spokeswoman Cathy Bacile Cunningham, who suggested the so-called pension tax is weighing down the governor's re-election bid.
"We expect the race to be close all the way through Election Day and turnout will be key," she said.
Two other polls published this week by media outlets in the Detroit market showed Snyder with a five percentage point lead. Real Clear Politics, which averages recent polls, had pegged Snyder's lead at four points prior to the EPIC-MRA release.
Snyder spokesperson Emily Benavides, citing newspaper endorsements from across the state , said Snyder has “all the momentum” heading into election day “due to his positive message” about private sector job growth, the lowest unemployment rate in six years, investments in education and the bipartisan “Grand Bargain” in Detroit’s bankruptcy case.
“Michigan is on the road to recovery, and Governor Snyder’s leading the way,” Benavides said.
The Detroit Free Press, an EPIC-MRA partner that first received the poll results Wednesday, reported that absentee ballots could have a major impact on the race.
The Michigan Democratic Party argues that its aggressive ground game, absentee push and efforts to target voters that sat out the 2010 midterm election will be a game changer. But Republicans say their use of new technology will pay dividends as well.
Porn said about 14 percent of respondents indicated that they had already voted absentee, and he expects that number to climb to at least 25 percent in coming days. Some believe closer to a third of all voters will cast an absentee ballot this year.
Snyder and Schauer have sparred over education funding levels, tax policy and the general direction of the state this cycle. With just five days remaining, both candidates are planning statewide tours and hoping to encourage supporters to vote on Tuesday.
Schauer is launching his "Michigan For All of Us" tour on Thursday. He and Peters are scheduled to rally with President Barack Obama in Detroit on Saturday.
The Michigan Republican Party is kicking off it’s “comeback state bus tour” on Saturday. Snyder is expected at most stops, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is scheduled to join him at a campaign event in Utica on Monday.
The EPIC-MRA poll also showed Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette leading Democratic challenger Mark Totten by 12 percentage points and GOP Secretary of State Ruth Johnson with a four point lead over Democrat Godfrey Dillard.
Check the comments section below to see the poll questions and a breakdown of responses.
Jonathan Oosting is a Capitol reporter for MLive Media Group. Email him, find him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.