How New York Yankees Should Handle Each of Their Important Free Agents

After missing the postseason in 2013, the New York Yankees set out to accomplish two goals in 2014: play October baseball and stay under the luxury-tax threshold. But prior to the season, New York brass doled out $500 million in marquee signings—exceeding the threshold—and the Bombers concluded a wholly unremarkable 84-78 campaign a few weeks ago, 12 games behind the Orioles and four games out of the second wild-card spot. 

Now, equal parts anxiety, anticipation and optimism surround the fanbase ahead of this winter. 

With general manager Brian Cashman recently re-signed to a fresh three-year deal, the 27-time champions will invariably seek to right the ship ahead of 2015 and avoid missing the playoffs for the third straight year. And here in late October, the two biggest question marks are likely starting pitching and the infield.

But in addition to scouring the free-agent landscape around Major League Baseball in the upcoming months, they'll inevitably be faced with a few internal decisions. Taking a look at six of the Yankees' most important free agents—three pitchers and three fielders—we'll ask a simple question for each: Keep him or dump him?

The task becomes trickier for Cashman and Co. with factors going beyond just 2014 performance: Should the Yankees hang on to pitchers like Brandon McCarthy and Hiroki Kuroda—or go after a premier free-agent starter instead? Will CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova be 100 percent by April? 

Do they bring back a Chase Headley or Stephen Drew, neither of whom opened many eyes down the stretch? Do they need to find their shortstop of the future this offseason? Would they fill the infield with a returning Alex Rodriguez and stopgap in-house options? 

Here's a preliminary blueprint examining these scenarios and offering up how the Yankees should handle each of their important free agents.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted; contract and salary information via Spotrac.

Should the Yankees bring back 14-year veteran and 41-year-old Ichiro Suzuki? Two years ago, the Yanks thought he was worth a two-year, $13 million contract. Right now, this is a tougher question than it may seem.

Ichiro averaged 147 games over the last two seasons and slashed .271/.308/.341. He's a versatile fourth outfielder and decent insurance when Carlos Beltran's ability to log time in right is a big if. He remains quick on the basepaths and can easily be plugged into the top or bottom of the order, as well as used as a late-game substitution.

He's also just 156 hits short of 3,000 in MLB, having averaged 119 the past two years, and the organization would love for him to accomplish the milestone in pinstripes. 

But the last time he drove in more than 50 runs and stole more than 20 bags was 2012, and his 42 runs scored was the lowest mark of his career. His 0.4 fWAR and 86 wRC+, via FanGraphs, leave much to be desired for a productive everyday player.

Looking a little deeper into his advanced data, there are a few pieces of damning evidence against the idea that Ichiro is simply great at making contact and reaching base.

His .296 weighted on-base percentage was his second lowest to date; his Contact% (contact per number of pitches) was his lowest; he posted a very below-average 5.5 BB rate; and his 17.7 strikeout rate was the worst of his career, and much worse than his previous low of 11.7.

In terms of other fourth outfielder options, the Yankees still have Martin Prado under contract through 2016 (12 G in outfield; 11 in infield), as well as minor leaguers like Taylor Dugas (.305 at Triple-A) and Adonis Garcia (.319). Other Scranton/Wilkes-Barre infielders like Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela have experience in the outfield, too.

The Yanks could conceivably sign him for a (relatively) cheaper one-year deal, but the smarter move is to let him go amid diminishing production and value.

Verdict: Dump him

A season ago, 39-year-old Hiroki Kuroda declined the Yankees' $14.1 million qualifying offer before re-signing with the team on a one-year deal ($16 million). With the veteran right-hander having signed one-year contracts each of the last three seasons, he's once again deciding between a fourth consecutive one and retirement after seven years in the bigs.

Per MLB.com's Bryan Hoch:

Kuroda has entertained thoughts of retirement in each of the past few years, only to return on one-year contracts, but said this past winter prompted his most serious contemplation. He will turn 40 in February and is not sure if he would be interested, should a contract be offered.

'Right now, I cannot imagine what the answer is going to be,' Kuroda said. 'I'm just relieved I was able to finish the season without getting hurt. If -- and this is a big if -- there are such talks, then I'd have to ask myself and think deeply whether I'd be able to produce.'

Kuroda was a mark of consistency as the Yankees rotation was decimated early and often by injury. In his third year in pinstripes, he started 32 games and totaled 199 innings, posting an 11-9 record and 3.71 ERA (3.60 FIP). He's posted a sub-3.80 ERA in every season and a sub-3.40 in four of them. He also finished 2014 with his lowest WHIP (1.136) and BB/9 (1.6) to date. 

His 1.46 GB/FB was the second best of his career, and his low-90s fastball was only a few ticks off his best velocity—so there's no ostensible physical decline taking place. The Yanks have questions marks with the health of Nova and Sabathia, and the latter's ace status is all but gone. With or without McCarthy and/or a top-tier free-agent starter, the Yankees would be wise to keep Kuroda for another year—if possible—in a rotation with Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and Shane Greene.

Common sense says the Yankees will make another qualifying offer to Kuroda, and, unless he prefers to pitch closer to home in southern California (Dodgers, Angels), you'd imagine him suiting up in the Bronx if he prolongs his retirement yet again.

"If the Yankees were comfortable in issuing him a qualifying offer last year before knowing if he’d return to MLB, they’d probably feel similarly comfortable this year," writes MLBTradeRumors' Mark Polishuk. 

Verdict: Keep him

When no teams jumped on Stephen Drew last winter, the shortstop ended up missing spring training and the first two months of the season. Following 39 awful games for Boston (.176, four HR), the Yankees plugged him in at second for the final 46—and he performed worse.

Drew slashed .150/.219/.271 for New York, picking up just 21 hits, 11 extra-base hits (three HR) and driving in only 15. He also committed five errors—four of them at second.

Some might argue the poor season was a fluke given his missed time at the start of the season; to play devil's advocate, he looked more like the third failed attempt at a professional infielder after face-palm signings Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson.

And Drew has never been known for his offense. His previous three seasons: .252, .223 and .253. 

If the Yankees don't bring back Drew, does that mean they're stuck with Brendan Ryan and minor leaguers to fill the middle of the infield? Not exactly. Cashman told Hoch: "Right now off the current roster, excluding the free agents that will be electing free agency, we will be looking at Brendan Ryan. Are there obtainable shortstops above Ryan? And work from there." 

And Hoch adds: "Re-signing Stephen Drew is a possibility, but the Yankees intend to give a look to free agents Hanley Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera and Jed Lowrie. They could also consider trades for the Blue Jays' Jose Reyes, the Phillies' Jimmy Rollins or the White Sox's Alexei Ramirez."

Any of those names would be an upgrade over 2014 Drew, and internally the Yankees are (decently) loaded with Jose Pirela (.333 in seven MLB G; .305 in 130 Triple-A G) and Rob Refsnyder (.318 between Double- and Triple-A).

As Polishuk writes: "Stephen Drew could be re-signed at a relative discount price, though it’s hard to see the Yankees handing Drew the starting job coming off his poor 2014 season."

Verdict: Dump him

The 31-year-old sparkled in 14 starts for the Yankees after coming to the Bronx in early July. In a rotation ravaged by injury, he was a sort of saving grace in a hapless quest for the postseason in Derek Jeter's final year. He failed to reach the sixth inning in just two outings, pitched seven or more frames in three games and recorded a complete-game shutout in late August. In 10 starts he allowed two or fewer earned runs.

His numbers didn't jump off the page while in Arizona (3-10, 5.01 ERA), but the Yanks took a chance on his advanced stats profile (3.82 FIP). He went 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA (3.22 FIP) in New York, improving on his ERA+ (75 to 134), WHIP (1.377 to 1.151), H/9 (10.8 to 9.1), BB/9 (1.6 to 1.3) and K/9 (7.6 to 8.2).

The 6'7" right-hander also produced the most ground balls of his career with his nasty combination of fastball, cutter, sinker (the third was used 51.2 percent of the time). He previously had totaled 224 ground balls in 2013 and 250 in 2011 before piling up 326 in 2014, and 52.6 percent of batted balls were on the ground—the highest of his career.

McCarthy made his interest to stay in New York clear in late September, too. From the New York Daily News' Roger Rubin:

Based on what McCarthy has said in recent weeks, it appears that if the Yankees took interest in him, it would be reciprocated. He said he found the Yankees a good organization for a veteran pitcher and that he liked the professionalism throughout it. He has been comfortable performing for a team that may be scrutinized by fans and media like no other.

He falls beneath the top tier of free-agent starters (Max Scherzer, Jon Lester), and he'll likely be grouped along with the likes of second-level arms, including Ervin Santana, Jason Hammel, Ryan Vogelsong and Edinson Volquez. Cashman, and the fans, would love to secure one of the first two names, and according to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, the Yankees are "great admirers" of Lester. 

But one of the latter names would come cheaper—and the one named McCarthy already proved he can, and wants to, pitch in New York.

If the Yanks opt for Lester, it could be to add a premier lefty arm to a starting five (and beyond) saturated with right-handers. Yet, with Kuroda and McCarthy in the fold, the Yanks could be looking at a very solid primary rotation of Tanaka, Pineda, Kuroda, Greene and McCarthy with Ivan Nova, CC Sabathia (both depending on health) and Chase Whitley to boot. 

Verdict: Keep him

The decision on Chase Headley is the most difficult of any free-agent position player, and re-signing him may ultimately represent a contingency plan for an infield filled with holes/questions. The Yankees' choice to keep him or dump him depends partly on A-Rod's return and partly on whether they acquire an additional free-agent infielder from outside the organization.

If they don't bring back Ichiro, for instance, Martin Prado can become the everyday fourth outfielder. Without Stephen Drew, the Yanks still have Brendan Ryan and two hot middle-infield prospects (Refsnyder, Pirela). 

Without Headley, however, are the Yankees confident in A-Rod's health and production at third? "A-Rod is the most expensive mystery in major league history," write the New York Post's Joel Sherman. "He is the giant problem the Yanks must work around, but cannot remove."

With $61 million remaining on his contract, the Yankees are essentially stuck with him. He just turned 40, missed an entire season of baseball (some can optimistically call it rest) and has two repaired hips. Before the A-Rod defenders call me a Yankee hater, I'll add: This is not to rule out A-Rod having a productive season.

It just seems unlikely. Hoch reported earlier this month that the Yanks are "actively [seeking] contingency plans in the event that Rodriguez is not able to play his position." Cashman has spoken of A-Rod splitting time between DH and even some first base. And then one problem with keeping A-Rod out of the defensive picture is that it pushes Beltran (knees) back into it (see: Yanks stuck with A-Rod).

Headley was far from exceptional after coming over from the Padres. In 58 games for New York, he hit .262/.371/.398 with six homers and 17 RBI. But at least the Yanks know what they're getting in the 30-year-old. Headley was also outstanding at third, playing a near-Gold Glove hot corner for the second half.

Heyman reported in the first week of October: "There are strong indications the Yankees may have interest in bringing back Chase Headley. ... Headley has told people around the Yankees that he never would have envisioned he'd enjoy playing in New York before going there and actually enjoying it following his trade from the Padres."

The Yankees could be happier with a free agent like Hanley Ramirez or Pablo Sandoval (both free agents), but if they're unable to bring any of the top-level infielders to the Bronx, Headley sounds like a better safety valve than an infield of Mark Teixeira, Brendan Ryan and a combination of Prado and prospects. This decision may take several months while A-Rod's health is monitored.

Verdict: Keep him

You could let David Robertson finish, but Dellin Betances had one of the best relief performances of all time. Joking aside, Betances looks like he could become one of the game's best shutdown relievers—as well as the next Yankees closer—as soon as 2015, meaning there's some speculation that the Yankees could afford to let Robertson walk.

The 26-year-old, 6'8" Betances finished his rookie season with 135 strikeouts in 90 innings (13.5 K/9), a 1.40 ERA, 22 holds and an All-Star selection. He frequented the seventh or eighth inning and flashed a triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider. His 3.2 fWAR was the highest among all qualified relievers in baseball.

But Robertson, in his first year succeeding Mariano Rivera, already was one of the best shutdown relievers in baseball—and he did so in one of the toughest markets on the toughest stage. The 29-year-old converted 39 of 44 save opportunities and posted a 13.43 K/9 in 64.1 innings.

Writes MLBTradeRumors' Steve Adams:

In today’s game, strikeouts are king for pitchers, and Robertson excels in that department. Though he’s not overpowering — he’s averaged 92 mph on his heater in his career — Robertson racks up strikeouts at a prolific rate in part because he releases the ball closer to home plate than most pitchers, causing his fastball to appear quicker.

And when a lockdown bullpen has proven vital to a team's regular-season and postseason success, why would the Yankees even contemplate choosing Robertson or Betances? If the Yanks enter 2015 with holes in the starting staff and infield, they'd love to turn the ball over to Adam Warren/Shawn Kelley (arbitration eligible), Betances and Robertson.

Look at the 2014 pennant winners. When the Royals reach the seventh inning: Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland. The Giants: Jeremy Affeldt/Javier Lopez, Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla. 

Adams calls it a "virtual lock" that the Yankees will extend a qualifying offer to Robertson (he sources ESPN Insider Buster Olney; subscription required). While he points out that other interested teams could be deterred by having to surrender an unprotected draft pick, he adds that some would bite the bullet on the compensation pick to acquire his services.

"Given the fact that Robertson is the best player at his position in a free-agent market that is thin on bats and features a number of talented but risky starters, a team may view Robertson as more of a sure thing than the rest of the market," writes Adams.

Despite a hefty price tag (given that he declines the QO)—as well as the fact the Yanks somewhat awkwardly avoided contract-extension talks this season—the Yankees would be smart to be that team and pay the man.

Verdict: Keep him

Peter F. Richman is a Yankees Featured Columnist and Copy Editor for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: Follow @Peter_F_Richman