New Bluegrass poll has McConnell, Grimes even

U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes are in a virtual dead heat just 15 days before voters will go to the polls, according to the latest Bluegrass Poll.

The poll found that McConnell leads by the narrowest of margins, pulling ahead 44-43 among likely voters. That result is well within the poll's margin of error. Libertarian David Patterson gets just 5 percent.

The poll shows that McConnell is in the fight of his political life despite being the most powerful Republican in the Senate and likely to take over as the Senate majority leader if he wins re-election and the GOP can win control of the Senate.

The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA for The Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, The Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. The pollster interviewed 655 likely voters on landlines and using a written questionnaire sent to their mobile devices.

Three weeks ago, Grimes led by 2 points, but in the days following the release of the poll, Grimes garnered wide criticism when she refused to tell The Courier-Journal's editorial board if she voted for President Barack Obama in 2008 or 2012.

"It's moved in Mitch McConnell's direction," said Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, who said that the average of public polls shows McConnell with a clear advantage.

"You have to look at the polling average, given the margin of error, the difficulty of reaching people and the difficulty of coming up with a good polling model," he said. "The polling average clearly shows McConnell ahead."

The average of the last five public polls, as calculated by RealClearPolitics.com, was 4 percentage points in favor of McConnell.

If you add the Bluegrass Poll to the mix, that average drops to a 3.4 percentage point lead for McConnell, and it drops to 3 percentage points if you add a Western Kentucky University Big Red Poll released Monday that showed McConnell with a four point lead am

ong likely voters.

Except for the fact that there is no gender gap in the polling, University of Kentucky Political Science professor Steve Voss said the remarkable thing about the polling is that it is so unremarkable.

"This is exactly what we would expect to see," said Voss, who had questioned the accuracy of earlier polls that showed McConnell up by 4 points and Grimes up by 2.

Typically, men favor Republicans and women back Democrats. In the Bluegrass Poll, however, they are tied among men and McConnell has a small advantage among women.

Other polls have found McConnell performing better with men, but there is no consensus as to whether a gender gap exists with women voters.

Jonathan Hurst, Grimes' campaign manager, said the poll is good news for Grimes. "We've never felt so confident," he said. McConnell "can't get to nearly 50 per percent. It just shows how much trouble he's in."

The McConnell campaign, meanwhile, questioned the poll's reliability.

"Out of the last 18​ public polls released since Labor Day, the Bluegrass Poll is the only survey showing anything but a decisive lead for Senator McConnell," spokeswoman Allison Moore said. "There is a lot of enthusiasm building for Senator McConnell as Kentucky gets closer to having our first Majority Leader of the Senate in over 70 years."

Voss said the polling results contain both good news and bad news for both candidates.

For McConnell, the bad news is that he appears to be getting "all of the easy votes for him to get," and getting additional votes will be difficult, Voss said. Meanwhile, the good news is that he leads in the race and that if disaffected voters sense the race is close, some of those who now say they back Patterson may bolt the Libertarian and back McConnell.

For Grimes, Voss said the pressure is on for a better "ground game" than McConnell has. "If they are both equally successful in mobilizing the vote, she loses," he said.

The good news for her, he said, is that the polling suggests some people aren't buying his argument that a vote for Grimes is a vote for Obama. "It is clear some portion of these people who dislike President Obama, nonetheless, are showing willingness to vote for her."

The poll found that 10 percent of voters might be willing to change their vote in the final weeks of the campaign. They are split almost equally between McConnell and Grimes.

Therese Moseley, 63, a registered nurse from Lexington, said she likes a lot of what Grimes has to say about social issues and womens issues but, "quite frankly, I think I'd vote for anybody who's running against Mitch McConnell," she said.

Moseley said McConnell is bereft of any ideas about how to help the nation. "All he wants to do is oppose any Democratic ideas," she said.

But the Rev. Sean Daniels, of Harlan County, said he expects to vote for McConnell, in part because he doesn't think he can back Grimes.

"I'm not 100 percent for McConnell, but I'm just afraid to vote for Grimes," said Daniels, a Baptist minister who said Democratic views on coal industry concern him.

The poll found that McConnell's favorability number has increased slighly to 38 percent, his highest level in five months, but his unfavorable rating has inched to 47 percent, as well, leaving him with a net favorability rating of minus 9.

Grimes on the other hand has seen her approval rating stay steady at 40 percent but her unfavorable rating ticked up to 43 percent, giving her a net favorable rating of minus 3.

Obama has a favorable rating of 30 percent and an unfavorable rating of 54 percent, which is largely unchanged since the last poll.

The poll found that 47 percent of registered voters believe that Republicans would do a better job running the U.S. Senate and 42 percent say the Democrats would do better.

According to the poll, the 72-year-old McConnell leads among older voters and the 35-year-old Grimes leads among younger voters. White voters favor McConnell, while African Americans back Grimes.

McConnell leads among Republicans and independents, while Democrats back Grimes. She's also got the backing of moderates and liberals, while conservative voters say they favor McConnell.

College graduates back Grimes while those with just a high school diploma support McConnell. Those who make under $40,000 support Grimes while those earning more favor McConnell. And McConnell leads in the eastern and western parts of the state, while Grimes is favored in the 14-county Louisville area. They are tied in north central Kentucky, which includes Lexington and the Cincinnati suburbs.

Reporter Joseph Gerth can be reached at (502) 582-4702. Follow him on Twitter at @Joe_Gerth.

ABOUT THE POLL

THE BLUEGRASS POLL® is based on surveys conducted Oct. 15 to 19 with 745 Kentucky registered voters by SurveyUSA. Of the respondents, 655 were determined to be likely voters. The poll was conducted for The Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV in Lexington.

Seventy-five percent of likely voters were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, while the other 25 percent were shown a questionnaire on their smart phone, tablet or other electronic device.

For results among likely voters, the poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. For registered voters, the sampling margin was plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. In theory, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had all respondents with telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy.

Republishing or broadcasting the poll's results without credit to The Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV is prohibited.