Tata Motors
BSE SENSEX
40,240
S&P CNX
11,857
10 December 2019
Update
| Sector:
Automobiles
CMP: INR160
TP: INR195(+22%)
Buy
JLR – wholesales down marginally in Nov’19
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
TTMT IN
3,397
494.4 / 7
239 / 106
-5/-6/-13
5011
61.6
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2019 2020E 2021E
Net Sales
3,019 2,851 3,114
EBITDA
297.9 336.5 396.9
NP
-14.8
-1.2
42.0
Adj. EPS (INR)
-4.4
-0.3
11.7
EPS Gr. (%)
-119
-93 -3,705.2
BV/Sh. (INR)
177.2 177.6 189.0
RoE (%)
-1.9
-0.2
6.4
RoCE (%)
5.2
5.1
8.3
P/E (x)
NA
NA
13.7
P/BV (x)
0.9
0.9
0.8
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-19 Jun-19
Promoter
38.4
38.4
DII
15.7
16.0
FII
19.0
19.5
Others
27.0
26.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Tata Motors
Sensex - Rebased
250
200
150
100
50
Sep-18
37.3
17.4
18.8
26.5
Double-digit growth in China retails for fifth straight month
JLR’s wholesale volumes declined marginally by 2.4% YoY to ~48.1k units (our
estimate: ~45.5k) in Nov’19.
Jaguar volumes declined ~29% YoY to ~10.8k units (our estimate: 12.5k),
whereas Land Rover (LR) volumes increased ~9% YoY to ~37.3k units (our
estimate: 33k).
JLR’s retail volumes declined 3.4% YoY in Nov’19 as the recovery in China
(+29%) and North America (~+5%) was offset by the fall in the UK (~-11%),
Europe (~-17%) and RoW (~-17%). China witnessed the fifth consecutive
month of a recovery in volumes.
Jaguar’s retail volumes declined ~23% YoY in Nov’19.
LR’s retail volumes were up 5.5% YoY, driven by higher sales of new RR
Evoque (~+25%), new LR Discovery Sports (+4.4%), LR Discovery (+15.5%) and
RR Sport (~+5%).
Mr Felix Brautigam, Jaguar Land Rover Chief Commercial Officer said,
“Against the backdrop of a downturn in the global automotive market, we
were pleased to see our sales grow in the US and China. Despite the ongoing
headwinds in China, we continue to see green shoots of recovery in our sales
there. The intensive work with our retailers in the region, combined with
Significant process and product improvements are starting to gain traction.
For Jaguar globally, we were very excited to launch our new Jaguar F-TYPE at
the beginning of December, to initial very positive customer and media
reaction. Land Rover continues to perform well overall, with a very rich mix of
models. Sales of our comprehensively updated Land Rover Discovery Sport
are also gathering momentum while appreciation of the all-new Range Rover
Evoque is growing apace as customers opt for its combination of dynamic on-
road handling, luxurious refinement and trademark Land Rover all-terrain
capability.”
The stock trades at 13.7x FY21E consol. EPS and 0.8x P/B. Maintain
Buy
with a
target price of INR195 (Sep’21 SOTP-based).
Jinesh Gandhi - Research analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1524
Aanshul Agarawal - Research analyst
(Aanshul.Agarawal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 7193 4337
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Tata Motors
TATA MOTORS : JLR [Wholesale]
YoY
Company Sales
JLR
Jaguar
Land rover
Nov-19 Nov-18
48,105
10,801
37,304
49,312
15,114
34,198
MoM
YoY (%)
MoM
Oct-19
chg
(%) chg
-2.4
47,278
1.7
-28.5 12,367 -12.7
9.1
34,911
6.9
FY20 YTD FY19 YTD (%) chg
3,48,422 3,58,290 -2.8
98,588 1,14,547 -13.9
2,49,834 2,43,743 2.5
FY20
estimate
5,72,774
1,66,312
4,06,462
Residual
Growth
Gr. (%)
(%)
1.3
8.4
-6.3
7.7
4.8
8.7
Residual
Monthly
Run rate
56,088
16,931
39,157
FY20
Monthly
Run rate
43,553
12,324
31,229
TATA MOTORS : JLR [Retails]
Company Sales
JLR
Jaguar
Land rover
Region-wise Retail Sales
Region
UK
US
Europe
China
RoW
Total JLR
Brand-wise Retail Sales
Brands
XF
XJ
F-Pace
E-Pace
XE
F-type
I-Pace
Total Jaguar
Discovery
Freelander/Dis. Sport
Range Rover (incl. new)
RR Evoque
RR Sport (incl. new model)
RR Velar
Total Land Rover
Nov-19
46,542
11,464
35,078
Nov-19
8,183
13,538
9,672
8,780
6,369
46,542
Nov-18
48,160
14,909
33,251
Nov-18
9,170
12,907
11,629
6,804
7,650
48,160
YoY (%) chg
-3.4
-23.1
5.5
YoY %
-10.8
4.9
-16.8
29.0
-16.7
-3.4
Oct-19
41,866
10,606
31,260
Oct-19
8,441
11,666
8,284
7,300
6,175
41,866
MoM (%) chg
11.2
8.1
12.2
MoM %
-3.1
16.0
16.8
20.3
3.1
11.2
FY20 YTD
3,45,976
98,930
2,47,046
FY20 YTD
71,865
85,887
71,883
66,627
49,714
3,45,976
FY19 YTD
3,67,839
1,14,737
2,53,102
FY19 YTD
75,616
85,785
77,213
68,539
60,686
3,67,839
(%) chg
-5.9
-13.8
-2.4
YoY %
-5.0
0.1
-6.9
-2.8
-18.1
-5.9
Nov-19
1,134
173
4,082
3,309
911
463
1,392
11,464
3,289
7,704
4,313
7,960
6,889
4,923
35,078
Nov-18
1,691
261
4,121
4,016
2,184
441
2,195
14,909
2,848
7,378
4,982
6,358
6,571
5,114
33,251
YoY %
-32.9
-33.7
-0.9
-17.6
-58.3
5.0
-36.6
-23.1
15.5
4.4
-13.4
25.2
4.8
-3.7
5.5
Oct-19
1,147
151
3,643
3,133
850
373
1,309
10,606
2,901
6,727
4,053
6,789
6,520
4,270
31,260
MoM %
-1.1
14.6
12.1
5.6
7.2
24.1
6.3
8.1
13.4
14.5
6.4
17.2
5.7
15.3
12.2
FY20 YTD
8,213
2,777
29,547
26,773
16,106
4,513
11,001
98,930
22,646
51,574
31,423
54,165
50,628
36,608
2,47,046
FY19 YTD
19,165
2,792
33,707
29,230
20,067
5,113
4,663
1,14,737
27,844
57,373
34,865
43,028
49,107
40,885
2,53,107
YoY %
-57.1
-0.5
-12.3
-8.4
-19.7
-11.7
135.9
-13.8
-18.7
-10.1
-9.9
25.9
3.1
-10.5
-2.4
10 December 2019
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Tata Motors
Financials and valuations
Income Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Total Income
Change (%)
Expenditure
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
EBIT
Product Dev. Exp.
Interest
Other Income
EO Exp/(Inc)
Forex Gain/ (Loss)
PBT
Tax
Effective Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
% of Net Sales
Minority Interest
Share of profit of associate
Net Profit
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
2015
26,31,590
13.0
22,10,452
4,21,138
16.0
1,33,886
2,87,252
28,752
48,615
8,987
930
-917
2,17,026
76,429
35.2
1,40,597
-0.3
5.3
-868
134
1,39,863
1,40,465
-1.1
2016
27,30,456
3.8
23,12,693
4,17,763
15.3
1,67,108
2,50,655
34,688
48,891
8,854
18,504
-16,169
1,41,258
30,251
21.4
1,11,007
-21.0
4.1
-989
5,775
1,15,793
1,30,334
-7.2
2017
26,96,925
-1.2
23,27,802
3,69,124
13.7
1,79,050
1,90,074
34,136
42,380
7,545
-11,146
-39,101
93,148
32,512
34.9
60,636
-45.4
2.2
-1,022
14,930
74,544
67,288
-48.4
2018
29,15,505
8.1
25,77,462
3,38,043
11.6
2,15,536
1,22,507
35,319
46,818
39,576
-19,751
11,853
1,11,550
43,419
38.9
68,131
12.4
2.3
-1,025
22,783
89,889
77,826
15.7
2019
30,19,384
3.6
27,21,436
2,97,948
9.9
2,35,906
62,042
42,246
57,586
29,653
2,96,516
-9,059
-3,13,712
-24,375
7.8
-2,89,337
-524.7
-9.6
-1,020
2,095
-2,88,262
-14,785
-119.0
2020E
28,51,467
-5.6
25,14,999
3,36,468
11.8
2,21,375
1,15,093
38,683
64,513
29,111
697
-20,590
19,721
9,211
46.7
10,510
-103.6
0.4
-362
-11,684
-1,536
-1,164
-92.1
(INR M)
2021E
31,14,393
9.2
27,17,516
3,96,877
12.7
2,48,603
1,48,273
40,084
65,729
33,200
0
-13,562
62,098
18,603
30.0
43,495
313.8
1.4
-463
-1,052
41,980
41,980
-3,705.2
(INR M)
2021E
7,196
6,72,794
6,79,990
9,11,239
-36,601
15,60,685
30,24,249
16,23,837
14,00,412
2,50,000
7,478
48,609
14,07,116
3,83,966
1,70,652
2,97,541
5,42,867
15,52,930
7,42,335
5,97,281
-1,45,814
15,60,685
Balance Sheet (Cons.)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Goodwill
Investments
Curr.Assets
Inventory
Sundry Debtors
Cash & Bank Bal.
Loans & Advances
Current Liab. & Prov.
Sundry Creditors
Other Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOFSL Estimates
2015
6,438
5,56,181
5,62,619
6,92,115
-13,900
12,45,167
15,82,066
7,44,241
8,37,825
2,86,401
46,970
1,53,367
10,34,685
2,92,723
1,25,792
3,21,158
2,56,948
11,14,081
5,74,073
3,28,305
-79,396
12,45,167
2016
6,792
7,82,732
7,89,524
6,19,612
44,748
14,58,212
19,76,068
9,11,348
10,64,720
2,59,189
7,598
2,37,670
11,02,234
3,26,557
1,35,709
3,04,604
2,54,033
12,13,200
6,15,618
4,60,226
-1,10,965
14,58,212
2017
6,792
5,73,827
5,80,619
7,44,891
11,740
13,41,781
16,28,389
6,75,681
9,52,708
3,36,988
6,733
2,03,379
12,37,735
3,50,853
1,40,756
3,60,779
2,91,474
13,95,762
6,25,326
6,22,314
-1,58,027
13,41,782
2018
6,792
9,47,487
9,54,279
7,79,944
19,671
17,59,144
21,56,778
9,17,952
12,38,826
4,00,335
1,165
2,08,128
14,23,465
4,21,377
1,98,933
3,46,139
4,45,929
15,12,775
7,69,398
5,38,766
-89,309
17,59,144
2019
6,792
5,95,003
6,01,795
9,11,239
-36,601
14,81,664
22,58,724
11,53,858
11,04,866
3,18,838
7,478
1,57,707
14,31,544
3,90,137
1,89,962
3,26,488
5,12,867
15,38,770
7,16,907
6,01,347
-1,07,226
14,81,664
2020E
7,196
6,31,983
6,39,179
9,11,239
-36,601
15,19,411
26,74,021
13,75,234
12,98,788
2,50,000
7,478
49,661
13,19,686
2,73,428
1,56,245
3,45,057
5,32,867
14,06,203
6,64,040
5,46,857
-86,517
15,19,411
10 December 2019
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Tata Motors
Financials and valuations
Ratios (Con.)
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
EPS Fully Diluted
EPS Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value (Rs/Share)
DPS
Payout (Incl. Div. Tax) %
Valuation (x)
Consolidated P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
2015
43.6
43.6
-1.1
85.2
174.8
0.0
0.0
3.7
1.7
0.3
0.9
0.0
23.1
15.7
39.2
17
41
80
2.1
1.2
2016
38.4
38.4
-12.0
87.6
232.5
0.0
0.0
4.2
1.5
0.2
0.7
0.0
19.3
15.1
34.5
18
44
82
1.9
0.8
2017
19.8
19.8
-48.4
72.5
171.0
0.0
0.0
8.1
2.0
0.3
0.9
0.0
9.8
9.2
22.6
19
47
85
2.0
1.3
2018
22.9
22.9
15.7
86.4
281.0
0.0
0.0
7.0
2.3
0.3
0.6
0.0
10.1
6.4
12.0
25
53
96
1.7
0.8
2019
-4.4
-4.4
-119.0
65.1
177.2
0.0
0.0
-36.7
3.3
0.3
0.9
0.0
-1.9
5.2
7.7
23
47
87
2.0
1.5
2020E
-0.3
-0.3
-92.6
61.2
177.6
0.0
0.0
-493.3
3.2
0.4
0.9
0.0
-0.2
5.1
7.9
20
35
85
1.9
1.4
2021E
11.7
11.7
-3,705.2
80.8
189.0
0.3
2.8
13.7
2.9
0.4
0.8
0.2
6.4
8.3
11.3
20
45
87
2.0
1.3
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Int/Div. Received
Depreciation
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
Other Items
CF from Op Activity
Extra-ordinary Items
CF after EO Items
(Inc)/Dec in FA+CWIP
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Invest.
CF from Inv Activity
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividends Paid
CF from Fin Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Beginning Bal.
Closing Balance
E: MOFSL Estimates
2015
1,39,863
7,777
1,33,864
-41,940
-36,718
1,36,570
3,39,415
20,191
3,59,606
-3,15,396
44,210
-37,570
-3,52,966
0
1,22,288
-63,070
-7,204
52,014
58,655
1,52,629
2,11,283
2016
1,10,238
8,258
1,70,142
-19,939
25,515
96,855
3,91,069
8,857
3,99,925
-3,26,232
73,693
-68,134
-3,94,366
74,332
-47,483
-57,039
-1,739
-31,930
-26,371
2,11,283
1,84,913
2017
75,566
36,653
1,79,050
-18,951
32,542
8,954
3,13,814
-11,822
3,01,992
-3,04,135
-2,143
-76,664
-3,80,799
46
1,16,583
-53,363
-1,212
62,053
-16,754
1,71,536
1,54,782
2018
90,914
39,542
2,15,536
-30,212
-64,337
23,333
2,74,776
-36,202
2,38,574
-3,50,486
-1,11,912
88,470
-2,62,016
0
75,183
-54,106
-960
20,117
-3,325
1,39,868
1,36,543
2019
-2,88,262
29,653
2,35,906
-31,897
-1,734
-6,334
-62,668
-2,96,516
-3,59,184
-20,450
-3,79,634
50,420
29,971
-64,221
1,31,296
-57,586
0
9,489
-3,19,725
1,36,543
-1,83,182
2020E
-1,536
29,111
2,21,375
-9,211
-2,141
362
2,37,961
-697
2,37,264
-3,46,459
-1,09,195
1,08,046
-2,38,413
38,920
0
-64,513
0
-25,593
-26,742
-1,83,182
-2,09,924
2021E
41,980
33,200
2,48,603
-18,603
11,782
463
3,17,426
0
3,17,426
-3,50,228
-32,802
1,052
-3,49,175
0
0
-65,729
-1,169
-66,898
-98,647
-2,09,924
-3,08,571
10 December 2019
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Tata Motors
NOTES
10 December 2019
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Tata Motors
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
> - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In
case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days,the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation
consistent with the investment rating legend.
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Analyst ownership of the stock
Tata Motors
No
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Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be
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document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior
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effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263; Website
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Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance
Corporate Agent: CA0579; PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth
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company of MOFSL. Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in
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* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
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