Peyton Manning Breaks Bad, Justin Tucker Sings! Week 1 Game Previews

Riffs, rants, observations and dissenting opinions from the voices in my head: Here’s a warped-and-dented take on this weekend’s games.

(Note: All times listed are Eastern, odds are via Oddsshark and games are listed in the order you should read them.)

Colts at Broncos

Sunday, 8:30 p.m.

Line: Broncos -9

Some men don’t really blossom until late middle age. Take Bryan Cranston, for example. Or Peyton Manning, now late-middle-aged for an NFL player. When the back starts aching and the hairline recedes to reveal even more forehead, some graybeards develop an “enough’s enough” attitude that compliments their still-formidable talents. Acting coaches call it gravitas. The rest of us prefer terms like “old-guy muscles.”

The new Peyton may not be breaking bad, but he has become ornery now that he is being passed over for promotions by whippersnappers like Russell Wilson. The new Peyton got into the face of second-year Texans safety D.J. Swearinger after the young defender followed a concussive hit on Wes Welker (who is enduring his own brand of midlife crisis) with some sloppy play that led to two Broncos touchdowns. Manning cursed briefly at Swearinger, but to appreciate the full meaning of his comments you must run them through an Internet English-to-Angry-Old-Guy translator.

Listen punk. I was throwing touchdown passes in this league while you were blowing out your seventh birthday candles. You knock one of my receivers out of the game again and I will throw so many passes at your receivers that NFL A.M. will rename itself The Humiliation of D.J. Swearinger Show. Now go back to the sideline and see if you can figure out how to triple your team’s win total and finish 6-10.

The NFL fined Peyton $8,268 for the expletive. He called it “money well spent.” Again, a translation: Hah! I can pay that fine with change in my dryer’s lint screen. I make that much saying the word “pepperoni” in a Papa John’s commercial. If Swearinger needs a little more scratch, send him by my house so I can cuss him out a dozen more times, then write him a check from petty cash.

So yeah, Peyton may not be Walter White, but he is the uncle who refuses to turn the Jimmy Buffet album down at the cookout because he plays golf with the chief of police. He will need that newfound feistiness: Welker is both injured and suspended, kicker Matt Prater is also suspended for the first month and, as usual, anything short of a Super Bowl victory for a Manning-led team is a complete failure. It’s No More Mister Nice Guy time.

Andrew Luck, Peyton’s replacement in Indianapolis, is starting to feel pressure on the other side of the generation gap. Rolling Stone magazine must have mistaken Andrew Luck for the mandolin player of Old Crow Medicine Show or something: the semi-relevant music magazine issued a Win Now mandate for the third-year quarterback. It was like Inside Sports magazine trashing a Lana Del Ray’s album. Luck may soon feel the heat, but it’s a little early to tag him for a quarter-life crisis.

Prediction: Broncos 31, Colts 21

Bengals at Ravens

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Even

Fox Sports dubbed Ravens kicker Justin Tucker the Most Interesting Man in the NFL near the end of last season. It only goes to show you: If you want to come across as fascinating, just stand next to Joe Flacco for a couple of years.

Tucker will also grace the cover of Baltimore Style magazine next month, which says a little about Tucker and a lot about what passes for style in Baltimore (the alternate choices were California Chrome and a crab cake.) “He sings opera in seven different languages, raps in a Dr. Pepper commercial and admittedly turns Ravens cafeteria TVs to Bravo and E! for entertainment news,” according to the Ravens website. It’s true: all the young sophisticates need their daily dose of Total Divas these days, except for the ones trying to figure out which opera is sung in seven languages.

Tucker bears the burden of interest for the whole Ravens organization these days, unless we delve into the unpleasant stuff. (We will get to that in two weeks). Flacco remains Flacco, all of his receivers are named Smith and the defense is about as good as ever, but far more anonymous (including two more Smiths).

New offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak is a take-things-slow coach in an uptempo world. You can set your watch by the zone-stretch runs and play-action bombs the Ravens will run this year. The Ravens don’t face the Seahawks this year, but Richard Sherman helpfully duct-taped an X onto the field at M&T Bank Stadium to show precisely where Kubiak’s boot pass to the flat will be thrown.

The Bengals are more talented than the Ravens but only slightly more dynamic. The departures of coordinators Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer will sap their creativity, and Andy Dalton must start his windup now if he hopes to complete a bomb to A.J. Green by the second quarter. The Bengals are having their usual ticket issues and are invoking some new league rules to avoid a television blackout. Maybe they just need to tweak their promotional campaign. “Live, at halftime: Justin Tucker sings Verdi! In Swedish!”

Prediction: Bengals 26, Ravens 20

49ers at Cowboys

Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

Line: 49ers -4

Some teams refuse to show anything in the preseason. Others stick Blaine Gabbert and McLeod Bethel-Thompson under center, forcing viewers to recoil in disgust. Much was made about the 49ers’ slow offensive start in August, and their first-team offense looked somewhat ragged during its brief cameos. But most of the 34-0 tomfoolery of the early preseason was Gabbert-exacerbated, and even the trudging first unit gave no real cause for alarm: The 49ers offense never settles for a six-play touchdown drive when a 16-play one will do.

The Cowboys’ first-team defense did not play much in the preseason because the Cowboys did not really have a first-team defense. Henry Melton and Brandon Carr—two of the few remaining Cowboys defenders with any name recognition after injuries, cap constraints and suspensions took their toll—barely played in the preseason. (Both are expected to play on Sunday).

The collection of rookies, journeyman and recently retired linebackers who took the field in August went three quarters without forcing an incomplete pass against the Chargers, allowed 200 rushing yards to the Dolphins and gave up 1,573 total opposing yards (third-worst in 2014 preseason) while recording just five sacks (tied for second-worst).

Holding the Cowboys’ awful defensive preseason against them while giving the 49ers offense a pass would be a double standard if the Cowboys didn’t do so much last-minute waiver shopping. Michael Sam got most of the attention, but the Cowboys also grabbed 49ers castoff C.J. Spillman and slapped him onto the active roster as the third safety. There are some worries that Spillman may provide the Cowboys with insider information from San Francisco. Unless he teaches them the secrets of drafting and developing quality defensive players, it won’t do them much good.

Prediction: 49ers 30, Cowboys 14.

Saints at Falcons

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Saints -2.5

The Falcons wanted to get tougher this season. Here are some of the ways they have gone about it:

• They hired Mike Tice to spout R. Lee Ermey tough-guy babble (the thing he does best), draw undue attention to himself (the thing he does second-best) and coach their offensive line (ummm…);

• They released Asante Samuel, a defender so adverse to contact that his Sleep Number is negative;

• They appeared on HBO’s Hard Knocks to acquire that “too edgy for basic cable” reputation that was a thing about 10 years ago;

• They replaced the greatest tight end in NFL history with a 6'8" kid who averaged five yards per catch last year, which should make things tougher for the rest of the offense.

The Falcons will also field one of the league’s youngest defenses, with 11 rookies or second-year players on the active defensive depth chart. Kids these days aren’t known for their toughness, but 60 minutes against Drew Brees will work like a month of boot camp.

Prediction: Saints 37, Falcons 21

Patriots at Dolphins

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Patriots -3.5

Rob Gronkowski is an unreliable source of Rob Gronkowski health information. Gronk is not a doctor, after all, so who is he to speak about the status of his own knee? Gronk is not Bill Belichick, either, and new HIPAA guidelines require that all health-related disclosures get cleared through Bill Belichick.

Those HIPAA guidelines are not just for Patriots players, mind you: Ordinary citizens must also get approval from Belichick before, say, telling their wives about the prostate or explaining to little Jimmy how the Tonsil Bunny climbs down his throat while he is sleeping but later rewards him with orange sherbet. You can get around Belichick by invoking his top-secret HIPAA code phrase: mumbling paranoiac.

Gronk said he will play, but Belichick said that no decision has been made, so we are back to reading between the lines, or at least pretending to. The Dolphins now have a new offensive system, Knowshon Moreno and a rebuilt offensive line, but we live in a world where Gronk’s injury status can eclipse an entire offseason of Dolphins storylines, even if Gronk is not injured or authorized to give us his status.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Dolphins 17

Jaguars at Eagles

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Eagles -11

The old Jaguars would not have simply named Blake Bortles the starter by now. They would have cut Chad Henne, probably on Thursday, then burned the Acosta and Main Street bridges just to make sure there was no turning back.

That’s what makes their newfound patience so interesting. With his size-speed-arm package and surprising pocket poise for a rookie, Bortles could be Jay Cutler without the hungover-frat-brother personality. Keeping him under wraps is downright alluring. The Jaguars are sexier when they don’t act so desperate.

The new Henne-Toby Gerhart offense has lots of uptempo fins and spoilers, but it has a long way to go before it can catch Chip Kelly’s contraption. But good things come to those who wait: If Bortles slow-cooks into a speedier version of Nick Foles, it will be the best thing to happen to the Jaguars since the Broncos rested their starters before the 1996 playoffs.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Jaguars 24

Browns at Steelers

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Steelers -7

Bold prediction: This will be the most penalized game of the most penalized week in NFL history. The Browns released Human Holding Penalty Leon McFadden (eight flags in four preseason games!), but Joe Haden and Buster Skrine combined for 16 flags last year, Justin Gilbert will make some rookie mistakes, and Donte Whitner can be relied upon for some 15-yarders to break up the illegal-contact monotony.

On the other side, Ike Taylor is the only starting cornerback in the NFL who will resort to holding to stop the Browns receiving corps, and Troy Polamalu’s “look at how well I jump the snap count” trick is increasingly becoming Pennsylvania’s most beloved neutral-zone infraction.

Other than the flags, this will be a drearily traditional Week 17 Steelers-Browns game—career third-stringer starting for the Browns, slow-motion blowout—moved up to Week 1 to save time.

Prediction: Steelers 23, Browns 6

Bills at Bears

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Bears -7.5

Like the last rundown townhouse in a fully gentrified neighborhood, the Bills are suddenly the hottest property on the market. Nobody cares much about Orchard Park, New York, mind you: The NFL’s the zip code everyone wants to buy their way into.

Jon Bon Jovi looks at the Bills and sees an internationally themed coffee-and-sandwich shop where he can jam with his band on weekends. (The sign behind the cashier will read Enjoy “Wanted: Dead or Alive” Any Way You Want Except Ironically, in English and French.)

Terrence Pegula, who knows the territory, sees a civic treasure: an Upstate New York Sports and Folk Life Museum supported by honeymooning Patriots fans. Donald Trump wants to do for greater Buffalo what he did for Atlantic City, which is the kind of thing that should land him behind bars, not on the Pro Football Talk rumor mill.

Even Kyle Orton wants a piece of the action. Orton retired to wriggle out of his Cowboys contract, then signed with the Bills: the modern NFL equivalent of burying yourself in dead bodies on a Medieval battlefield. Orton knows good real estate when he sees it. EJ Manuel spent the preseason throwing the football as if it were a cantaloupe, so a starting job in Buffalo (Toronto, Los Angeles, whatever part of Jersey Trump and Bon Jovi have not already divvied up) is likely to open up sooner than later.

The Bears rebuilt their run defense in the offseason, so handoff-and-hide tactics won’t work for Manuel, and rookie Sammy Watkins’ preseason effectiveness has been hampered by injuries and, well, Manuel. The Bills will lack curb appeal in the opening weeks, but according to the realty listings, they’ll have plenty of charm.

Prediction: Bears 24, Bills 13

Titans at Chiefs

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Chiefs -3

The Chiefs’ careful offseason salary-cap course correction did not make them any better, but it did make them more Chiefs-like. Alex Smith, now tied up for at least three more seasons, joins a castoff quarterback continuum that runs the gamut from Trent Green through Joe Montana to Steve DeBerg, Rich Gannon, Steve Bono, Matt Cassel, Elvis Grbac, Damon Huard and Dave Krieg. Where he falls on this ROY-G-DEBERG spectrum may be decided by Jamaal Charles, who combines Marcus Allen’s versatility with Priest Holmes’ workload.

Losing Branden Albert and Brandon Flowers leaves the team thin at cornerback, tackle and guys whose names start with "Brand," but the Chiefs are at their most Chiefs-like when doing more with less. Even Andy Reid is essentially Marty Schottenheimer with Dick Vermiel’s resume and Romeo Crennel’s waistline. These Chiefs may not know how to win, but they know who they are.

The Titans know who they are, too; it’s the rest of us who are in the dark. Ken Whisenhunt motivated hyper-talented pass-dropping receiver Justin Hunter early in camp by replacing the name on his jersey with “J.A.G.,” which stands for “Just Another Guy.” If you want to make a Titans player look like just another guy, all you usually have to do is dress him in a Titans jersey.

Prediction: Titans 20, Chiefs 17

Panthers at Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

Line: Buccaneers -2.5

The Buccaneers were this offseason’s robber barons, signing or trading for every free agent whose cleats weren’t glued to the locker-room floor. The Panthers, by contrast, suddenly embraced extreme cap frugality at the doorstep of the Super Bowl, like a parent taking the family to Disney World but declaring at the gate that there was no money left for rides or food. When these two teams are in close proximity, the Buccaneers may suck half the Panthers roster into their gravity well, pulling all of the fringy and recently retired-or-released players onto their side of the field like so:

Newton is on the mend from cracked ribs and is not even a lock to start; his backups are Derek Anderson, who missed part of the preseason while his wife was giving birth, and Joe Webb, who is the Panthers’ backup at most positions. The real winner in this Bucs-and-Panthers binge-and-purge scenario is, of course, the New Orleans Saints.

Prediction with Newton: Buccaneers 22, Panthers 16

Prediction without Newton: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 10

Redskins at Texans

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Texans -3

Let’s redraft the quarterbacks for these teams, shall we?

Texans (first pick): Robert Griffin III. RGIII is a Texas guy, and he would get along swell with a coach famous for yelling at Tom Brady (RGIII would find a good yelling-at refreshing after a year of icy silence). Andre Johnson and De’Andre Hopkins running up each sideline? Who needs proper footwork!

Redskins (second pick): Kirk Cousins. Gus Frerotte 2: Electric Boogaloo.

Texans (third pick): Ryan Fitzpatrick. They need a veteran backup for when RGIII gets injured diving headfirst at the end of a scramble to prove how dedicated he is. Fitzpatrick helps the 2014 Texans relive the glory of the 2013 Titans.

Redskins (fourth pick): This pick actually belongs to the Rams as part of that RGIII trade that occurred back when we were kids. The Rams take Case Keenum, who they wound up with anyway.

Texans (fifth pick): Ryan Mallett. Gus Frerotte 3: The Regrettening.

Redskins (sixth pick): Tom Savage. Because he’s young, he’s eager, and he ain’t Colt McCoy.

Both the Texans and Redskins are trendy “quick turnaround” candidates. All each team needs is exactly one quarterback. Unfortunately, one team has zero and the other two, so get ready for four months of either wishing the other guy was starting or wishing that there was another guy.

Prediction: Redskins 24, Texans 20

Vikings at Rams

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Rams -3

Sigh … Matt Cassel versus Shaun Hill. If you saw that matchup in 2008, when Cassel subbed for the injured Tom Brady and Hill was battling J.T. O’Sullivan for the right to humiliate Alex Smith in San Francisco, it might have put you off the NFL for a whole week. You may have even clicked over to the 2008 U.S. Open, where Roger Federer defeated Andy Murray.

Murray won’t be there for you this time. The men's finals are on Monday night, for one thing. But Murray lost a four-setter to Novak Djokovic on Wednesday night; Federer survived his endurance test, but it was harder than it used to be. Great as they are, athletes like Murray and Federer lose a lot to age. Athletes like Hill and Cassel lose much, much more.

Prediction: Rams 22, Vikings 21

Raiders at Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Jets -5

Something has to give as the NFL’s most talent-poor skill position offense faces a Jets secondary so injury-ravaged that Browns castoff Leon McHolding—oops, McFadden—is penciled in as the nickel. Matt Schaub has a bad elbow—“it hurts when I do this,” he told doctors while throwing a pick-six across the examination room—leaving Derek Carr to throw to people named Andre Holmes and David Ausberry. 

Luckily, the unknown Raiders receivers will be covered by equally unknown Jets defenders. It’s a game so depressing that irate fans will jam the switchboards demanding to see Heidi instead.

Prediction: Raiders 19, Jets 13

Giants at Lions

Monday, 7:10 p.m.

Line: Lions -7

The Lions may have the best offense in the NFL this season. They are loaded with Golden Tate and Eric Ebron behind Calvin Johnson on the receiving corps, Joique Bell and Reggie Bush make a fine one-two punch in the backfield, and the young offensive line is their secret strength. If Jim Caldwell managed to tighten the screws on Matthew Stafford’s delivery, this could be a thrill ride of a season: 34-31 scores may go both ways, but it will never be dull.

Meanwhile, the Giants’ new Ben McAdoo offense started falling apart before it rolled out of the hangar. The no-huddle moved in preseason fits and starts, key contributors like David Wilson and Geoff Schwartz have already suffered health setbacks (a career-ender in poor Wilson’s case), and top draft pick Odell Beckham appears to have been genetically engineered for the sole purpose of driving Tom Coughlin insane. (Scientists spliced Steve Smith’s talent with Domenik Hixon’s health history).

Coughlin is grumbling his way through press conferences about “a work in progress” while the Lions wonder how they will get all their weapons on the field. The tables may turn in autumn, as they so often do, but Tortoise and Hare analogies don’t work in Week 1, because we all know the rabbit gets a big head start.

Prediction: Lions 30, Giants 20

Chargers at Cardinals

Monday, 10:20 p.m.

Line: Cardinals -3

Ah, the late-night Boise State-Fresno State game. You don’t know much about either team, and you sure as heck won’t stay up past midnight to watch them, but their records look good, so you will catch the morning highlights so you can sound informed.

The Cardinals fielded one of the NFL’s best defenses last season, but injuries, defections and suspensions took away important pieces like Darnell Dockett, Daryl Washington and Karlos Dansby. That leaves the Cardinals with an aging quarterback, an interesting mix of skill position talent and a faceless-and-undermanned defense. In other words, they will be nearly indistinguishable from the Chargers.

Prediction: Chargers 28, Cardinals 17

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.