18 July 2020
Annual Report Update | Sector: Metals
JSW Steel
Buy
BSE SENSEX
37,020
S&P CNX
10,902
CMP: INR207
TP: INR242 (+17%)
Focused on navigating choppy waters
Higher exports and cash conservation to help tide over weak demand
JSW Steel (JSTL)’s FY20 Annual Report highlights the company’s strategy to combat
the fallout of COVID-19. JSTL plans to ramp-up exports to 30% of sales (v/s 21% in
FY20 and 16% in FY19) to compensate for weak demand in the domestic market.
Even in FY20, domestic volumes fell 10.7% YoY, which was partly compensated
through higher exports, with overall sales volumes declining 4% YoY.
JSTL is planning targeted cost savings, supported by technology and digitalization, to
reduce the cost base across areas of operation. Employee costs have already been
cut, with FY21 likely to see flat manpower costs despite the new capacity at Dolvi.
Capex has also been curtailed, with FY21 planned at INR90b v/s INR102b in FY20.
Planned capex of INR487b over FY18–22 is, however, only halfway through and likely
to spill over to FY23 and beyond. This is attributed to the company’s current focus
being on conserving cash.
Leverage has risen further in FY20 to 5.7x net debt/ EBITDA with an INR64b YoY
increase witnessed in net debt to INR629b (USD8.4b), a key concern. We estimate
net debt to rise further to INR676b in FY22 on weak profitability and capex plans.
However, the debt maturity profile is comfortable, with 63% of long-term debt due
for repayment after FY22. While INR139b of long-term debt (23% of the total) is due
for repayment in FY21, we believe it should be comfortably managed with
refinancing as well as cash and cash equivalents in hand of INR120b as of Mar’20.
Consolidated RoE and ROCE fell sharply in FY20 to 6.1% (-18.3pp) and 4.5% (-6.5pp),
respectively, weighed by weak domestic demand and significant losses in overseas
subsidiaries. These would be subdued even in FY21 due to the COVID-19 impact.
We expect consolidated Revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT at INR672b/ 112b/ 20b, -7%/+1%/-
9% YoY respectively. However, with an expectation of better demand in FY22 and
commissioning of the 5mtpa Dolvi expansion, we expect Revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT to
improve substantially by 30%/ 59%/ 165% YoY to INR875b/ 178b/ 52b respectively.
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Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
JSTL IN
2,417
499.8 / 6.5
297 / 133
-3/-13/-18
2128
57.3
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Sales
EBITDA
NP
AdjEPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuation
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div. Yield (%)
2020 2021E 2022E
726.1 672.1 875.1
111.6 112.1 178.2
21.7
19.7
52.2
9.0
8.2
21.8
-71.6
-9.2 165.2
152.5 158.6 178.3
6.1
5.3
12.9
4.5
4.1
7.3
28.9
29.1
10.9
22.9
1.4
10.2
2.0
25.2
1.3
10.4
1.0
9.5
1.2
6.6
1.0
Higher exports to combat weak domestic demand, but dilute margins
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
In FY20, JSTL ramped-up exports by 33% YoY to 3.2mt amid 10.7% YoY decline
in domestic volumes (due to weak demand from auto and other flat steel
consumers). Share of exports rose to 21% of sales (v/s ~16% in FY19).
JSTL expects share of exports to rise further to ~30% in FY21 as domestic
demand is likely to be weak due to the disruption caused by COVID-19.
Higher exports would, however, result in a weaker blended per ton realization
and EBITDA margin in FY21. We estimate EBITDA to decline 3% YoY in FY21.
JSTL’s announced capex plans of INR487b over FY18–22 are just halfway
through in FY20, with capex of INR239b spent thus far.
Amid uncertainties arising from COVID-19, JSTL is focusing on cash
conservation and has thus recalibrated its capex plans to prioritize return-
accretive projects. FY21 capex has thus been curtailed to INR90b v/s the earlier
planned spend of INR163b.
The total capex plan of INR487b is thus likely to spill over to FY23 and beyond.
Mar-20 Dec-19 Mar-19
42.7
42.3
42.7
4.9
4.6
3.4
17.7
18.3
19.2
34.7
34.8
34.7
Capex curtailed as focus on cash conservation
FII Includes depository receipts
Amit Murarka - Research analyst
(Amit.Murarka@motilaloswal.com)
Basant Joshi - Research analyst
(Basant.Joshi@motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.