18 July 2020
Annual Report Update | Sector: Metals
JSW Steel
Buy
BSE SENSEX
37,020
S&P CNX
10,902
CMP: INR207
TP: INR242 (+17%)
Focused on navigating choppy waters
Higher exports and cash conservation to help tide over weak demand
JSW Steel (JSTL)’s FY20 Annual Report highlights the company’s strategy to combat
the fallout of COVID-19. JSTL plans to ramp-up exports to 30% of sales (v/s 21% in
FY20 and 16% in FY19) to compensate for weak demand in the domestic market.
Even in FY20, domestic volumes fell 10.7% YoY, which was partly compensated
through higher exports, with overall sales volumes declining 4% YoY.
JSTL is planning targeted cost savings, supported by technology and digitalization, to
reduce the cost base across areas of operation. Employee costs have already been
cut, with FY21 likely to see flat manpower costs despite the new capacity at Dolvi.
Capex has also been curtailed, with FY21 planned at INR90b v/s INR102b in FY20.
Planned capex of INR487b over FY18–22 is, however, only halfway through and likely
to spill over to FY23 and beyond. This is attributed to the company’s current focus
being on conserving cash.
Leverage has risen further in FY20 to 5.7x net debt/ EBITDA with an INR64b YoY
increase witnessed in net debt to INR629b (USD8.4b), a key concern. We estimate
net debt to rise further to INR676b in FY22 on weak profitability and capex plans.
However, the debt maturity profile is comfortable, with 63% of long-term debt due
for repayment after FY22. While INR139b of long-term debt (23% of the total) is due
for repayment in FY21, we believe it should be comfortably managed with
refinancing as well as cash and cash equivalents in hand of INR120b as of Mar’20.
Consolidated RoE and ROCE fell sharply in FY20 to 6.1% (-18.3pp) and 4.5% (-6.5pp),
respectively, weighed by weak domestic demand and significant losses in overseas
subsidiaries. These would be subdued even in FY21 due to the COVID-19 impact.
We expect consolidated Revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT at INR672b/ 112b/ 20b, -7%/+1%/-
9% YoY respectively. However, with an expectation of better demand in FY22 and
commissioning of the 5mtpa Dolvi expansion, we expect Revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT to
improve substantially by 30%/ 59%/ 165% YoY to INR875b/ 178b/ 52b respectively.
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Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
JSTL IN
2,417
499.8 / 6.5
297 / 133
-3/-13/-18
2128
57.3
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Sales
EBITDA
NP
AdjEPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuation
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div. Yield (%)
2020 2021E 2022E
726.1 672.1 875.1
111.6 112.1 178.2
21.7
19.7
52.2
9.0
8.2
21.8
-71.6
-9.2 165.2
152.5 158.6 178.3
6.1
5.3
12.9
4.5
4.1
7.3
28.9
29.1
10.9
22.9
1.4
10.2
2.0
25.2
1.3
10.4
1.0
9.5
1.2
6.6
1.0
Higher exports to combat weak domestic demand, but dilute margins
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
In FY20, JSTL ramped-up exports by 33% YoY to 3.2mt amid 10.7% YoY decline
in domestic volumes (due to weak demand from auto and other flat steel
consumers). Share of exports rose to 21% of sales (v/s ~16% in FY19).
JSTL expects share of exports to rise further to ~30% in FY21 as domestic
demand is likely to be weak due to the disruption caused by COVID-19.
Higher exports would, however, result in a weaker blended per ton realization
and EBITDA margin in FY21. We estimate EBITDA to decline 3% YoY in FY21.
JSTL’s announced capex plans of INR487b over FY18–22 are just halfway
through in FY20, with capex of INR239b spent thus far.
Amid uncertainties arising from COVID-19, JSTL is focusing on cash
conservation and has thus recalibrated its capex plans to prioritize return-
accretive projects. FY21 capex has thus been curtailed to INR90b v/s the earlier
planned spend of INR163b.
The total capex plan of INR487b is thus likely to spill over to FY23 and beyond.
Mar-20 Dec-19 Mar-19
42.7
42.3
42.7
4.9
4.6
3.4
17.7
18.3
19.2
34.7
34.8
34.7
Capex curtailed as focus on cash conservation
FII Includes depository receipts
Amit Murarka - Research analyst
(Amit.Murarka@motilaloswal.com)
Basant Joshi - Research analyst
(Basant.Joshi@motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Stock Performance (1-year)
Net debt increases by INR64b in FY20; net debt / EBITDA rises to 5.7x
Net debt (including acceptances) increased by INR64b YoY to INR639b in FY20
on weak domestic margins, significant losses in subsidiaries, and a higher capex
spend. However, gross debt surged by INR121b to INR759b as JSTL increased
liquidity in hand due to uncertainty in cash flows stemming from COVID-19.
Net debt / EBITDA rose to 5.7x in FY20 (from 3.0x in FY19) and would remain
elevated at 5.9x in FY21, weighed by the expectation of weak profitability.
JSTL is exposed to currency risk on its debt, with 48% of debt being USD-
denominated, 47% INR, and the balance 5% other currencies.
Average cost of debt stood at 6.7% in FY20, but MTM loss on forex debt (at
INR24b) implies additional cost of 3.3%, taking the total cost to 10%.
In FY21, debt of INR139b (USD1.8b) is lined up for repayment. However, we
expect it to be managed comfortably through refinancing and JSTL’s strong cash
and cash equivalents position of INR120b.
The debt maturity profile (excl. working capital borrowings) is forecast as
follows: FY21 – 23% (INR139b), FY22 – 14% (INR88b), FY23 – 21% (INR127b), and
post-FY23 – 43% (INR263b).
EBITDA to OCF conversion improves, but FCF remains negative
JSTL’s FY20 operating cash flow (OCF) declined by INR18.5b YoY to INR128b,
dragged down by weaker EBITDA of INR112b (down 41% YoY). This was partly
offset by the release of working capital of INR16b (v/s an increase of INR16b in
FY19) and lower income tax payments.
The cash conversion ratio (OCF post working capital / EBITDA) improved to 1.2x
(v/s 0.9x in FY19), driven by working capital release in FY20.
While OCF was weaker, cash capex came in higher at INR128b in FY20 (up
INR26b YoY), resulting in negative free cash flow (FCF) of INR41.1b (post interest
payments and acquisition spends) v/s negative INR6.6b in FY19.
Overseas subsidiaries continue to incur losses, require parent support
JSTL’s overseas subsidiaries widened their losses in FY20. Key overseas
subsidiaries – JSW (USA) Inc, JSW (USA) Ohio Inc, and JSW Italy Plombino S.p.A –
reported combined EBITDA loss of INR12.4b v/s loss of INR2.8b in FY19.
JSTL extended loans of ~INR12.0b to Periama Holdings, LLC – holding company
of JSW (USA) Inc and West Virginia coal operations – in FY20, taking the total
receivables from the same to INR61.3b.
JSTL is implementing measures to turnaround its overseas operations. In the US,
the integration of Ohio and Baytown (Plate Mill) operations is planned to derive
synergies. The Plate Mill at Baytown is also being modernized, which is likely to
provide cost savings in FY21.
Other key points from Annual Report
Bhushan Power acquisition further delayed due to legal issues:
The erstwhile
promoters of Bhushan Power and Steel (BPSL) and certain operational creditors
have filed an Appeal before the Supreme Court against the NCLAT order
declaring JSTL the winner of the bid process to acquire BPSL. If JSTL is upheld as
the winner, this would result in a further increase in debt by at least INR30b.
18 July 2020
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
This calculation is based on the INR197b deal value, 70% debt funding, and JSTL
taking 51% stake in the asset, with the balance being sold to strategic investors.
24km pipe conveyor operationalized at Vijayanagar:
JSTL operationalized a
24km pipe conveyor with a capacity of 10mtpa in FY20 (likely to be enhanced to
20mtpa). Furthermore, it transported ~3.4mt of iron ore during the year,
generating savings of INR560m (INR165/t of iron ore); the full potential of these
developments is likely to be achieved in FY21.
Captive iron ore production adding to fixed cost:
JSTL mined 4.1mt of iron ore
from its captive mines in Karnataka. It paid statutory dues (premium and
royalty) of INR6.5b on the same in FY20, implying cost of INR1,588/t. Production
in Karnataka is guided to rise to 7mt in FY21.
Shift to new tax regime unlikely in near future:
In its standalone operations,
JSTL has minimum alternate tax (MAT) credit entitlement of INR42b, which it
expects to utilize over the next six years. The company thus does not plan to
shift to the new tax regime of 25% over this period as it would have to forego
the MAT credit.
In FY20, employee cost rose by 6% YoY to INR15.0b on a 4% increase in
employee count to 13,159 and 4% in per employee cost, partly offset by 34%
decline in managerial remuneration to INR570m.
Valuation and view
We like JSTL given its strong pipeline of projects and cost reduction initiatives.
On the domestic front, while on the one hand, it should deliver above-industry
volume growth in FY22, driven by expansion, margins should also improve,
aided by a better product mix. Any turnaround in its loss-making overseas
operations could provide a further upside.
In the near term, we expect JSTL to tide over the disruption caused by COVID-
19, supported by higher exports, cost reductions, and capex curtailment.
Although net debt is expected to rise to INR676b in FY22E (from INR639b in
FY20), we expect it to decline subsequently as the capex phase ends and
invested projects start to generate cash flows. We value JSTL at 7.0x FY22E
EV/EBITDA to arrive at TP of INR242/share. Maintain
Buy.
Exhibit 1: Target price calculation
Y/E March
A. S/A volumes
B. EBITDA per ton
C. S/A EBITDA (AxB)
D. Sub. EBITDA
E. Cons. EBITDA (C+D)
F. Target EV/EBITDA (x)
G. Target EV (FxG)
less: Net Debt (Rs m)
Add: Non-current investments (at Book value)
Equity value
No. of shares
Equity value /sh.
2020
15.1
7,824
1,17,990
-6,420
1,11,570
2021E
14.4
7,949
1,14,478
-2,328
1,12,150
2022E
18.0
9,441
1,69,946
8,300
1,78,246
7.0
12,47,720
6,76,029
9,740
5,81,430
2,400
242
Source: MOFSL
6,39,300
6,64,609
18 July 2020
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Higher exports to support volumes, but dilute margins
Share of exports rises in FY20; should grow further in FY21
In FY20, JSTL’s standalone sales volumes declined 4% YoY to 15.1mt. Domestic sales
fell 10.7% YoY to 11.9mt, primarily due to demand contraction for flat steel (led by
slowdown in auto demand). As a result, JSTL’s share of domestic volumes decreased
to 11.9% from 13.5% in FY19. Weak domestic demand for flats resulted in JSTL
growing its exports to 3.2mt (up 33% YoY). Exports contributed ~21% to volumes in
FY20 (v/s 16% in FY19); JSTL has the flexibility to export in times of weak domestic
demand, backed by the strategic location of its Dolvi plant.
We expect the share of exports to rise to ~30% in FY21 as domestic demand is likely
to be even weaker during the year, resulting in ~5% YoY decline in total sales
volumes. However, we expect volume growth to be strong at 25% YoY in FY22,
driven by increased capacity post the Dolvi expansion in 4QFY21.
Exhibit 2: Domestic volumes decline in FY20 on weak demand
Domestic Sales (mt)
33.7
28.1
6.6
6.1
0.9
5.2
13.6
7.8 8.9
1.9
1.4
6.4
7.0
11.9
2.4
9.5
Export Sales (mt)
14.8
21.8
12.1
1.5
3.8
0.8
10.7
Total Sales (mt)
15.6
3.7
5.7
15.8
2.4
0.9
13.3
15.1
3.2
Growth (%)
18.0
14.4
4.3
4.5
25.0
12.0
3.1
1.4
8.9
-4.3 -4.5
11.9
10.1
13.5
11.0
12.0
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 3: JSTL’s share in domestic steel consumption declines to 11.9% in FY20
JSW Domestic Sales (mt)
12.8
7.8
9.0
9.5
11.6
13.1
JSW Domestic share (%)
13.1
13.2
13.5
11.9
5.2
6.4
7.0
9.5
8.9
10.7
11.0
12.0
13.3
11.9
Source: Company, MOFSL
Lower prices result in 33% decline in EBITDA/t in FY20
In FY20, realization declined 14% YoY to INR42,139/t on weak pricing in the
domestic market and a higher share of exports. As a result, EBITDA/t was down 33%
YoY to INR7,824/t. We expect 8% YoY decline in blended realization in FY21 on the
expectation of lower domestic prices and an increase in the share of exports to 30%
(from 21% in FY20). However, cost benefits from lower iron ore / coking coal prices
and cost reduction measures should result in nearly flat YoY EBITDA/t in FY21 (32%
lower than FY19).
18 July 2020
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Exhibit 4: Export realization at sharp discount to domestic
Blended Realisation
45,841
36,855
31,442
30,379
18,991
35,379
28,741
41,509
31,135
32,431
50,198
48,783
42,139
31,454
Domestic
43,956
Exports
41,757
38,900
29,567
43,414
7,868
40,900
30,159
4,736
61
123
147
190
112
112
178
Exhibit 5: Standalone EBITDA/t declines 33% in FY20
Conso EBITDA (INR b)
11,676
8,728
7,824
7,949
9,441
Standalone EBITDA/t (INR)
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
Employee cost to be flat led by sharp decline in managerial remuneration
JSTL is planning targeted cost savings, supported by technology and digitalization, to
reduce the cost base across areas of operation. Employee costs have already been
cut, with FY21 likely to see flat manpower costs despite the new capacity at Dolvi.
FY20 has already seen remuneration for managerial personnel being cut by 36% due
to decline in profit-linked commissions payable to them.
Exhibit 6: Managerial remuneration declines 36% YoY, staff cost likely to be controlled in FY21
INR m
No. of permanent employees at end
Staff cost
Managerial remuneration
Staff cost excl. managerial remumeration
Staff cost per employee
FY17
11848
11,676
340
11,336
0.96
FY18
11619
12,600
926
11,674
1.00
FY19
12599
14,160
870
13,290
1.05
FY20
13159
14,960
570
14,390
1.09
Source: Company, MOFSL
Captive mining to increase in FY21, merchant iron ore sourcing to reduce
JSTL produced 4.1mt of iron from its captive mines in Karnataka, which contributed
~20% to the iron ore requirement in FY20. With three more mines in Karnataka
being operationalized in FY21, the company expects to produce 7.0mt iron from the
Karnataka mines.
JSTL won four mines in Odisha iron ore auctions in FY20; the company has iron ore
reserves of 1.16b tonnes and environmental clearance to produce 29mt. The said
mines were won at a premium of 106%. JSTL commenced mining operations from 1
st
Jul’20. Average production for FY19 and FY20 from these mines stood at 21.65mt.
The company would have to produce ~80% of the last two years’ average
production in FY21/FY22 to comply with the conditions of the auction.
While it may be uneconomical for JSTL to use Odisha ore in Karnataka due to the
higher freight cost involved, it would look to replace the merchant ore procured at
JSTL Dolvi with captive ore. Dolvi procured 3.4mt of high-grade ore from
Chhattisgarh in FY20 for pellet making. JSTL may have to sell a part of its production
in Odisha on the merchant market to comply with auction conditions.
Moreover, with the premium being high at 106% of Indian Bureau of Mining (IBM)
prices, we believe captive mines are likely to result in iron ore cost of INR300–400/t
(mining cost) until the time that JSTL sets up evacuation facilities in the form of
slurry pipelines or conveyors, thereby reducing freight cost.
18 July 2020
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Exhibit 7: JSTL wins iron ore mines with 1.16b tonne reserves at 106% premium; has EC to produce 29.3mt
Name of the block
Nuagaon
Narayanposhi
Ganua
Jajang
Total
Resources in
MnT
793
191
119
59
1,161
EC Capacity
MnT
5.6
6.0
1.2
16.5
29.3
Production in
2018-19 MnT
5.6
3.0
0.3
11.7
20.6
Reservation
Merchant
Captive
Captive
Merchant
Premium
95%
99%
132%
110%
106%
Source: Steelmint, MOFSL
18 July 2020
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Capex curtailed as focus on cash conservation
Capex calibrated to prioritize return-accretive projects in FY21
JSTL currently implenting an announced mega capex plan of INR487b in FY18–22. Of
this, over FY18-20, INR239b (49%) has already been spent. Upstream projects
include capacity expansion at Dolvi by 5mtpa to 10mtpa (including a captive power
plant and coke oven plant) and at Vijaynagar by 1mtpa to 13mtpa. Downstream
projects focus is on product or mix enhancement.
Due to the weak outlook for operating profits in FY21 on account of COVID-19, JSTL
has recalibrated capex for FY21 to INR90b (vs earlier plan of INR163b) by prioritizing
capex that is return-accretive and nearing completion. It plans to spend INR82b on
enahncing steel capacities and INR8b on operationalizing seven new iron ore mines
won in auctions (three in Karnataka and four in Odisha). As a result, the balance
capex of INR158b at FY21-end (out of the total program of INR487b) is now
expected to spillover beyond FY22.
In FY21, JSTL plans to commission the following projects:
1) Dolvi – 5mtpa expansion by 4QFY21,
2) Vijayanagar – 8mtpa pellet plant and wire rod mill by 3QFY21, and
3) Downstream modernization and capacity enhancement projects at Vasind and
Tarapur, and the color coating plant at Kalmeshwar in 2HFY21.
Exhibit 8: JSTL’s capex program outlay
Capex plan
A. Announced Capex plan over FY18-22
B. Capex spent till FY19
C. Capex spend in FY20
D. Capex spent till FY20 (B+C)
E. Capex plan for FY21
F. Capex to be spent over FY22-FY23 (A-D-E)
INR b
487.2
137.3
102.0
239.3
90.0
157.9
Source: Company
18 July 2020
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Exhibit 9: Ongoing project pipeline
Ongoing Projects
A. Up-Stream Projects
Vijaynagar expansion from 12mtpa to 13mtpa
BF Upgradation from 3 to 4.5mtpa
Billet Caster
Wire-rod Mill
Dolvi - Capacity expansion from 5mtpa to 10mtpa
Blast furnace
Steel Melting Shop
Hot Strip Mill
Pellet Plant
4 x 600 TPDs of LCPs
B. Product mix enhancement projects
Vijaynagar - CRM complex expansion from 0.85 to 1.85mtpa
Continuous pickling line for auto (HRPO products)
Construction grade galvanized products
Color coated products
Vasind/Tarapur
GI/GL capacity
Color coated capacity
Ner Capacity or modernisation-cum-capacity
Color coating line at Vijaynagar
Pre-Painted Galvalume line at Kalmeshwar
Tinplate capacity at Tarapur
Continuous annealing line in Vasind
Color coated line at Rajpura
C. Cost reduction and integration projects
Vijaynagar
Pellet plant
Coke oven
Dolvi
coke oven
Power plant (WHRS)
Captive Power plant
Capacity (mtpa)
Time-line
Not defined
1.5
1.4
1.2
4.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
Capex (INR b)
23.0
FY21 end
150.0
20.0
1.2
0.9
0.3
0.9
0.3
0.30
0.22
0.25
0.50
0.25
1QFY20
3QFY21
2HFY21
2HFY21
2HFY21
not defined
2HFY21
not defined
not defined
not defined
17.3
9.4
7.0
2.0
8.0
1.5
1.5
175
60
2HFY21
2HFY21
2HFY21
2HFY21
2HFY21
52.0
20.5
9.8
Source: Company
18 July 2020
8
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Leverage to stay elevated in the near term
Net debt increases by INR64b in FY20; net debt / EBITDA rises to 5.7x
Net debt (including acceptances) increased by INR64b YoY to INR639b (USD8.5b)
in FY20 on weak domestic margins, significant losses in subsidiaries, and higher
capex spend. Gross debt surged even more by INR121b to INR759b (USD10.1b)
as JSTL increased liquidity in hand due to the uncertainty surrounding cash flows
stemming from COVID-19.
The outstanding balance of the advance received from Duferco stands at
INR40.0b at FY20-end. This advance, along with interest charged on the same,
will be settled through the sale of steel over the next four years.
Net debt / EBITDA rose to 5.7x in FY20 (from 3.0x in FY19) and should remain
elevated at 5.9x in FY21, due to likely weak cash flow generation in FY21.
Net debt/ EBITDA is expected to decline to 3.8x in FY22 as JSTL overcomes the
adverse impact of COVID-19 on margins and new capacities gets commissioned.
If JSTL is upheld as the winner of Bhushan Power and Steel (BPSL), this would
result in a further increase in debt by at least INR30b or ~5%. This calculation is
based on the INR197b deal value, 70% debt funding, and JSTL taking 51% stake
in the asset, with the balance being sold to strategic investors.
JSTL is exposed to currency risks on its debt, with 48% of debt being USD-
denominated, 47% INR, and the balance 5% other currencies.
Average cost of debt stood at 6.7% in FY20, but MTM loss on forex debt (at
INR24b) implies an additional cost of 3.3%, taking the total cost to 10%.
Exhibit 11: Net debt to equity is however stable
Net-Debt to Equity
2.7
5.7
5.9
3.8
2.1
2.3
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.6
Exhibit 10: Leverage to remain elevated in FY21
Net Debt (INR b)
8.3
5.1
Net debt/EBITDA
4.3
3.3
3.0
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
18 July 2020
9
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Exhibit 12: FY20 consolidated net debt increases by INR64b, but higher liquidity in hand raises gross debt by INR121b
INR m
Bonds
Debentures
Term Loan (Unsecured)
Term Loan (Secured)
Deferred government loans (unsecured)
Preference Shares (unsecured)
Acceptances for Capital Projects
Finance lease obligations
Unamortised fees on upfront borrowings
Advances from Duferco (incl. current year portion)
A. Long-term borrowings
Short-term borrowings
Capital acceptances (maturing in 1 year)
Trade payables Acceptances
B. Short-term borrowings
C. Gross Debt (A+B)
D. Cash and Cash Equivalents
E. Net-Debt (C-D)
Change
FY17
32,420
63,510
88,010
1,74,980
1,030
7,350
1,690
19,810
-2,580
3,86,220
48,810
10,150
95,020
1,53,980
5,40,200
17,850
5,22,350
FY18
65,040
47,040
80,450
1,57,200
990
5,910
5,040
17,810
-2,270
3,77,210
21,770
7,160
90,330
1,19,260
4,96,470
13,750
4,82,720
-39,630
FY19
69,180
41,410
1,26,950
1,52,340
1,210
2,510
0
19,570
-2,540
48,420
4,59,050
63,330
13,320
1,02,280
1,78,930
6,37,980
62,690
5,75,290
92,570
FY20
1,05,540
53,000
1,71,370
1,63,230
1,670
240
19,060
0
-3,630
40,540
5,51,020
83,250
27,100
97,980
2,08,330
7,59,350
1,20,050
6,39,300
64,010
Source: Company
Exhibit 13: Consolidated currency exposure of asset/ liability item;
Currency
breakup of debt of INR530b – INR 47%, USD 48%,
Euro 3%, JPY 1%
INR m
Financial assets
Investments
Loans
Trade receivables
Cash and cash equivalents
Bank balances other than cash and Cash Equivalent
Derivative assets
Other financial assets
Total financial assets
Financial liabilities
Borrowings
Trade payables
Derivative liabilities
Lease liabilities
Other financial liabilities
Total financial liabilities
INR
9,170
15,140
30,310
38,350
79,820
190
34,810
2,07,790
2,49,400
56,530
610
19,640
71,760
3,97,940
USD
-
-
8,020
690
540
2,750
280
12,280
2,56,820
1,05,420
3,190
330
48,150
4,13,910
EURO
140
-
6,720
620
-
-
430
7,910
18,430
16,270
-
530
21,510
56,740
JPY
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5,330
310
-
-
2,340
7,980
Other
450
-
-
-
10
-
20
480
Total
9,760
15,140
45,050
39,660
80,370
2,940
35,540
2,28,460
-
5,29,980
650
1,79,180
10
3,810
-
20,500
2,310
1,46,070
2,970
8,79,540
Source: Company
Cost p.a.
5.5%
9.3%
4.1%
8.4%
8.5%
8.5%
6.7%
Source: Company
Exhibit 14: JSTL’s blended cost of debt stands at 6.7%
Type of debt
Bonds
Debentures
Term loans from banks (Unsecured)
Term loans from banks (Secured)
Working capital loans
Commerical Papers
INR m
1,05,540
53,000
1,71,380
1,63,230
44,420
38,830
5,76,400
Repayment schedule manageable; 63% of debt due post FY22
Of the total long-term debts, INR139b debt is due for repayment in FY21. Of
this, the INR10b advance from Duferco would be settled through the sale of
18 July 2020
10
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
steel. The balance portion of INR129b is well-covered, with a cash balance of
INR120b reported at FY20-end. However, owing to planned capex of INR90b in
FY21, we expect JSTL to refinance a part of its debt obligation.
The debt maturity profile (excl. working capital borrowings) is forecast as
follows: FY21 – 23% (INR139b), FY22 – 14% (INR88b), FY23 – 21% (INR127b) and
post-FY23 – 43% (INR263b).
Exhibit 15: Debt repayment schedule – 63% of long term debt repayments only after FY22
Debt maturity profile
Long-term Debt maturities
Advance from Duferco (tentative)
Acceptances for capital projects
Commercial papers
Total
FY21
63,725
10,100
27,100
38,330
1,39,255
FY22
77,889
10,100
FY23
1,16,490
10,100
FY24 and
onwards
2,45,526
10,240
87,989
1,26,590
2,55,766
Source: Company
Exhibit 16: JSTL’s liquidity exposure
INR m
Financial liabilities
Long-term borrowings
Short-term borrowings
Trade payables
Derivative liabilities
Lease liabilities
Other financial liabilities
Total
<1 year
-
83,250
1,79,180
2,510
3,060
1,41,430
4,09,430
1-5 year
3,49,900
-
-
1,300
11,620
4,570
3,67,390
> 5 years
96,830
-
-
-
5,820
70
1,02,720
Total
4,46,730
83,250
1,79,180
3,810
20,500
1,46,070
8,79,540
Source: Company
Contingent liabilities increase by INR8.2b in FY20
JSTL’s consolidated contingent liabilities increased by INR8.2b to INR56.8b in FY20.
Contingent liabilities related to tax payments to the exchequer stood at INR35.1b
(62% of the total). Contingent liabilities as a percentage of networth stood at 15.5%
in FY20 v/s 14.0% in FY19. JSTL sees the remote possibility of materialization of the
Karnataka government’s claims related to the Forest Development Tax amounting to
INR25.8b. However, it has paid INR9.2b under protest in previous years.
Exhibit 17: Contingent liabilities (consolidated) – INR m
Particulars
Guarantees
Disputed claims/levies (excluding interest, if any), in respect of:
Excise duty
Custom-duty
Income tax
Sales tax / Special entry tax
Service tax
Miscellaneous
Levies by local authorities
Levies relating to Energy / Power Obligations
Claim by suppliers and other parties
Claims related to Forest Development Tax / Fee (net of INR9.2b paid under protest)
Total
As % of Networth
FY19
470
FY20
820
4,630 4,910
7,410 7,740
210
320
13,340 15,090
6,590 7,020
90
-
530
540
2,080 2,770
900
980
12,400 16,660
48,650 56,850
14.0% 15.5%
Source: Company, MOFSL
18 July 2020
11
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Free cash flow remains weak on high capex
FCF turns negative in FY20 on lower OCF and increased capex
Despite JSTL’s EBITDA declining by INR78b to INR112b in FY20, OCF declined by just
INR18.5b due to the release of working capital and lower income tax payments. As a
result, the EBITDA to OCF conversion ratio improved to 1.2x v/s 0.9x in FY19.
However, an increase in cash capex by INR26b YoY to INR128b in FY20 resulted in
FCF turning negative in FY20. FY20 FCF stood at negative INR0.25b v/s INR44.2b in
FY19. FCF post interest and acquisitions stood at negative INR41.1b v/s negative
INR6.6b in FY19.
Over the last three years (FY17–20), JSTL has reported cumulative EBITDA of
INR571b and OCF of INR477b. However, a change in working capital includes the
receipt of advance of INR48b from Duferco in FY19. Adj. for this, OCF in FY17-20
would stand at INR429b. Over FY18–20, cumulative net interest payments stood at
INR147b, leaving INR282b at the company’s disposal for capital expenditure,
acquisitions, and dividend payments. During FY18–20, the company incurred
INR322b toward capex and INR18b toward acquisitions, resulting in negative FCF of
INR58b. The company distributed INR28b as dividends during this period, leading to
cash outflow of INR86b, funded through an increase in debt over FY18–20. During
FY17–20, JSTL’s net debt rose by INR117b; however, a part of this increase (INR34b)
was on account of adverse forex movement.
Exhibit 18: JSTL’s FCF turns negative in FY20; capex and interest funded by OCF over FY18–20
INR m
EBITDA
Change in WC
Tax paid
Other Adj.
OCF
Capex
Free Cashflow
Acquisitions/investment in subsidiaries/JVs
Interest cost net of dividend and interest income
Free Cashflow post interest
FY17
1,22,598
-38,690
-2,370
-2,658
78,880
-44,350
34,530
-1,470
-34,510
-1,450
FY18
1,46,860
-11,010
-14,400
2,340
1,23,790
-47,360
76,430
-3,610
-33,850
38,970
FY19
1,89,520
-15,810
-26,300
-1,080
1,46,330
-1,02,060
44,270
-14,270
-36,570
-6,570
FY20
1,11,570
16,390
-11,550
11,440
1,27,850
-1,28,100
-250
1,000
-41,840
-41,090
Cumulative
(FY18-20)
4,47,950
-10,430
-52,250
12,700
3,97,970
-2,77,520
1,20,450
-16,880
-1,12,260
-8,690
Source: Company
Exhibit 19: Capex funded through a mix of internal accruals and fresh debt
Capex funding through profits
Capex
71%
67
48
19
55%
52
28
23
45%
44
20
24
47
47
-41
-86%
Source: Company, MOFSL
83
19
Change in net-debt (net of forex)
Change in net-debt/Capex
82%
128
40
31%
88
18 July 2020
12
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Exhibit 20: Cash conversion ratio improved to 1.2x
EBITDA (INR b)
1.1
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.9
16%
14%
3%
16%
7%
16%
8%
0%
Post WC OCF (INR b)
OCF/EBITDA
1.2
Exhibit 21: OCF / Net debt weakens to 22%
OCF (post WC)/Net-Debt
29%
FCF/Net-Debt
30%
22%
94 77
61 69
123 81
147 138
190 173
112 139
0%
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
Working capital declines in FY20 on increase in payables
JSTL’s working capital declined by INR55b to INR102b in FY20. This was due to
decline in inventory and receivables and an increase in trade payables (excl.
acceptances). Lower steel prices as well as a decline in share of domestic sales in
FY20 led to a reduction in receivables which fell by 8 days to 23 days of sales.
Meanshile, payables increased by 15 days to 41 days of sales partly offset by
increase in inventory by 7 days to 70 days of sales. As a result, net working capital
days reduced by 16 days to 52 days of sales.
Exhibit 22: Working capital declines in FY20, led by lower receivables and increase in payables
INR m
Inventories
Trade receivables
Trade payables (excl. acceptances)
Net Working Capital (NWC)
Trade payables acceptances (suppliers/buyers' credit)
NWC net of acceptances
FY17
1,13,950
41,490
38,460
1,16,980
95,020
21,960
FY18
1,25,940
47,040
69,110
1,03,870
90,330
13,540
FY19
1,45,480
71,600
59,310
1,57,770
1,02,280
55,490
FY20
1,38,640
45,050
81,200
1,02,490
97,980
4,510
Source: Company
Exhibit 23: Working capital days improve by 16 days to 52 days
Working Capital Days
Inventories
Trade receivables
Trade payables (excl. acceptances)
Net Working Capital
Trade payables acceptances (suppliers/buyers' credit)
NWC net of acceptances
FY17
75
27
25
77
62
14
FY18
66
24
36
54
47
7
FY19
63
31
26
68
44
24
FY20
70
23
41
52
49
2
Source: Company, MOFSL
18 July 2020
13
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Overseas subsidiaries widen losses
Indian subsidiaries continue strong performance
JSTL’s key Indian subsidiaries performed well even in FY20 led by strong performace
by JSW Coated whose EBITDA rose 40% YoY YoY to INR5.5b. Amba River Coke
however reported 11% YoY decline in EBITDA to INR3.88b. Both the subsidiaries
though reported an increase in PAT due to lower tax rates.
Overseas subsidiaries remain a drag, requiring parent support
JSTL’s overseas subsidiaries remained a drag on consolidated earnings and widened
their losses in FY20. JSW (USA) Inc’s EBITDA turned negative in FY20 with a loss of
INR2.14b v/s postive EBITDA of INR1.9b in FY19. JSW (USA) Ohio Inc reported
EBITDA loss of INR7.9b v/s loss of INR2.9b last year. JSW Italy Plombino (earlier
referred to as Aferpi) reported EBITDA loss of INR2.3b v/s loss of INR1.7b last year.
Combined post tax losses of the three overseas subsidiaries widened in FY20 to
INR22.4b, eroding 44% of the standalone PAT. The comprable loss in FY19 stood at
INR8.3b, eroding 10% of the standalone PAT.
Exhibit 24: Subsidiaries and JVs’ performances (INR m) – Overseas subsidiaries’ losses increase in FY20
JSW (USA) Ohio JSW Italy Plombino Monnet Ispat &
Inc
S.p.A
Energy Ltd
Manufacturing Manufacturing
Produces &
Producer of
Sale of coated Sale of coke and
plates, pipes and of slabs and hot distributes special
Steel (Joint
products
pellets
double jointing
rolled coils
long steel products
Venture)
8,001
9,319
60,535
2,468
1,750
19,600
9,280
-67,132
-17,505
-1,763
27,600
18,599
-6,597
-15,037
-13
Amba River Coke
JSW (USA) Inc
5,500
2,960
3,930
800
3,880
1,940
4,340
1,760
-2,140
-8,619
1,900
-3,630
-7,900
-10,100
-2,940
-3,230
-2,360
-3,640
-1,730
-1,390
-450
-4,920
-150
-2,820
JSW Coated
Products
Nature of business
Share Capital
Reserves and Surplus
Net Worth
FY20
EBITDA/(loss)
PAT/(loss)
FY19
EBITDA/(loss)
PAT/(loss)
Source: Company, MOFSL
Parent supports overseas subsidiaries through loans and advances
JSTL extended loans of ~INR12.0b to Periama Holdings, LLC in FY20, taking the total
receivables from the entity to INR61.3b. Periama Holdings LLC is the parent
company of JSW (USA) Inc. and the West Virginia coal mines. JSTL also extended
loans of INR7.1b to Acero Junction Holdings (JSW USA Ohio) in FY20. Overall, the
balance of loans and advances to subsidiaries stood at INR89.8b in FY20 (v/s
INR79.8b in FY19). JSTL had interest receivables of INR7.9b from overseas
subsidiaries at FY20-end.
Against the loans and advances given to overseas subsidiaries and interest
accumulated thereon, JSTL has thus far provided for INR16.0b as doubtful in its
books of accounts (of which INR9.2 was provided for in FY20).
18 July 2020
14
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Exhibit 25: Loans and advances to subsidiaries by JSTL
INR m
Periama Holdings, LLC (holding co. of JSW (USA) and West Virginia)
JSW (Netherlands) B.V.
Acero Junction Holdings, Inc.
Others
Total
FY19
49,360
13,180
7990
9250
79,780
FY20
61,340
2670
15,090
10,690
89,790
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 26: Interest receivables from subsidiaries
INR m
Inversiones Eurosh Limitada (Holding Co. of Santa Fe Mining in Chile)
Periama Holdings, LLC
Acero Junction Holdings, Inc.
Others
Total
FY19
1,920
3,960
190
290
6,360
FY20
2,090
4,310
1,160
360
7,920
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 27: Provision made for unrecoverable loans and advances and interest receivable
INR m
JSTL (Netherlands) B.V.
Periama Holdings, LLC
Inversiones Eurosh Limitada
Others
Total
FY19
4,760
0
1,970
30
6,760
FY20
2,070
3,770
10,110
40
15,990
Source: Company, MOFSL
18 July 2020
15
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Valuation
and view
We like JSTL given its strong pipeline of projects and cost reduction initiatives.
On the domestic front, while on one hand, the company should deliver above-
industry volume growth in FY22, driven by expansion, on the other hand,
margins should also improve, aided by a better product mix. Any turnaround in
loss-making overseas operations could provide a further upside.
In the near term, we expect JSTL to tide over the disruption caused by COVID-
19, supported by higher exports, cost reductions, and capex curtailment.
Although net debt is forecast to rise to INR676b in FY22E (from INR639b in
FY20), we expect it to decline subsequently as the capex phase ends and
invested projects start to generate cash flows. We value JSTL at 7.0x FY22E
EV/EBITDA to arrive at TP of INR242/share. Maintain
Buy.
Exhibit 28: Target price calculation
Y/E March
A. S/A volumes
B. EBITDA per ton
C. S/A EBITDA (AxB)
D. Sub. EBITDA
E. Cons. EBITDA (C+D)
F. Target EV/EBITDA (x)
G. Target EV (FxG)
less: Net Debt (Rs m)
Add: Non-current investments (at Book value)
Equity value
No. of shares
Equity value /sh.
2020
15.1
7,824
1,17,990
-6,420
1,11,570
2021E
14.4
7,949
1,14,478
-2,328
1,12,150
2022E
18.0
9,441
1,69,946
8,300
1,78,246
7.0
12,47,720
6,76,029
9,740
5,81,430
2,400
242
Source: MOFSL
6,39,300
6,64,609
Return ratios declined in FY20, to stay weak even in FY21
In FY20, EBITDA / adj PAT declined by 41%/72% YoY to INR112b/INR22b. As a result,
returns ratios declined sharply, with RoE contracting to 6.1% (down 23.3pp) and
RoCE to 4.5% (down 6.5pp). We expect return ratios to remain depressed even in
FY21 on weak expected profitability. However, with an improved demand outlook
and higher volumes in FY22 on the back of the Dolvi expansion, we expect return
ratios to improve in FY22, albeit still at lower levels than FY19.
Exhibit 29: RoE declines 18.3pp to 6.1% in FY20
RoE (%)
22.8
17.4
12.9
8.3
0.0
6.1
5.3
5.7
2.7
24.4
7.9
9.6
Exhibit 30: RoCE declines 6.5pp to 4.5% in FY20
RoCE (%)
11.0
7.3
4.5
4.1
Source: Company, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
18 July 2020
16
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Trading at a discount to 10-year average P/BV due to weak earnings
JSTL is trading at a 1-year forward P/BV of 1.25x, which is a 10% discount to its past
10 years’ average and 25% discount to its past 5 years’ average. The discount is
largely on account of weak near term earnings outlook which is likely to result in
sub-par ROE of 5.3% in FY21 (vs last 10-year average ROE of 11%). We expect
valuations to recover gradually as we expect ROE to recover to 13% in FY22E.
On earnings based valuation, the stock however seems to be trading marginally
above its 10-year average multiples due to weak near term earnings. We note that it
is trading at a 1-year forward EV/EBITDA of 8.7x, which is a 7% premium to its past
10 years’ average of 8.1x and 4% premium to its past 5 years’ average of 8.4x. On
FY22 basis, when earnings are expected to normalize, we see the stock trading at
6.6x EV/EBITDA which offers upside.
Exhibit 31: JSTL trading at 8.7x 1-yr fwd EV/EBITDA
14.0
EV/EBITDA (x)
Max (x)
Avg (x)
Min (x)
Exhibit 32: JSTL trading at 1.3x 1-yr fwd P/B
3.0
2.5
2.0
P/B (x)
Min (x)
Avg (x)
+1SD
12.4
9.9
2.7
Max (x)
-1SD
1.8
1.4
0.9
0.6
9.0
8.1
6.3
6.0
8.7
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1.3
4.0
Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg
Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg
18 July 2020
17
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Financials and valuations
Income Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Net sales
Change (%)
Total Expenses
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depn. & Amortization
EBIT
Net Interest
Other income
PBT before EO
EO income
PBT after EO
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Minority interests
Share of Associates
Preference dividend
Adj. PAT (after MI & Asso)
Change (%)
2016
4,18,789
-20.9
3,58,059
60,730
14.5
31,879
28,851
33,027
1,682
-2,494
-21,254
-23,748
-15,241
64.2
-8,508
950
138
279
-84
-100.5
2017
5,56,046
32.8
4,33,448
1,22,598
22.0
35,154
87,444
37,681
1,521
51,284
51,284
16,743
32.6
34,541
64
1,193
35,798
-42,485
2018
7,00,870
26.0
5,54,010
1,46,860
21.0
33,870
1,12,990
37,010
1,670
77,650
5,730
83,380
22,670
27.2
60,710
990
420
57,948
61.9
2019
8,47,570
20.9
6,58,050
1,89,520
22.4
40,410
1,49,110
39,170
2,040
1,11,980
1,11,980
36,440
32.5
75,540
1,150
-300
76,390
31.8
2020
7,26,100
-14.3
6,14,530
1,11,570
15.4
42,460
69,110
42,650
5,460
31,920
20,610
52,530
12,440
23.7
40,090
1,110
-900
21,683
-71.6
2021E
6,72,086
-7.4
5,59,936
1,12,150
16.7
45,599
66,551
42,600
5,390
29,341
29,341
9,910
33.8
19,430
1,215
-964
19,681
-9.2
(INR m)
2022E
8,75,138
30.2
6,96,892
1,78,246
20.4
52,692
1,25,554
55,200
5,444
75,797
75,797
23,850
31.5
51,948
1,215
-964
52,199
165.2
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Total Loans
Deferred Tax Liability
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Others
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Account Payables
Provisions & Others
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
2016
2,417
1,85,032
1,87,449
68
5,13,038
39,123
7,39,678
7,89,575
2,26,239
5,63,336
69,040
6,184
2,07,727
84,034
28,016
7,340
88,337
1,06,610
37,125
69,485
1,01,117
7,39,678
2017
2,400
2,24,070
2,26,470
-2,460
5,40,200
29,900
7,94,110
6,63,830
76,530
5,87,300
43,630
10,660
2,38,460
1,13,950
41,490
17,850
65,170
85,940
38,460
47,480
1,52,520
7,94,110
2018
2,410
2,77,570
2,79,980
-4,640
4,96,470
25,560
7,97,370
6,88,170
1,09,690
5,78,480
59,500
11,570
2,70,150
1,25,940
47,040
13,750
83,420
1,22,330
69,110
53,220
1,47,820
7,97,370
2019
2,400
3,45,550
3,47,950
-4,500
6,37,980
37,770
10,19,200
7,74,980
1,48,540
6,26,440
1,18,890
18,120
3,84,520
1,45,480
71,600
62,690
1,04,750
1,28,770
59,310
69,460
2,55,750
10,19,200
2020
2,400
3,63,590
3,65,990
-5,750
7,59,350
16,770
11,36,360
8,10,940
1,91,000
6,19,940
2,71,910
12,570
4,13,780
1,38,640
45,050
1,20,050
1,10,040
1,81,840
81,200
1,00,640
2,31,940
11,36,360
2021E
2,400
3,78,221
3,80,621
-5,750
7,59,350
20,812
11,55,033
8,90,940
2,36,599
6,54,341
2,81,910
12,570
3,82,346
1,35,214
42,351
94,741
1,10,040
1,76,135
75,495
1,00,640
2,06,212
11,55,033
(INR m)
2022E
2,400
4,25,369
4,27,769
-5,750
7,59,350
29,502
12,10,872
11,40,940
2,89,290
8,51,650
1,21,910
12,570
4,23,685
1,75,179
55,146
83,321
1,10,040
1,98,943
98,303
1,00,640
2,24,742
12,10,872
18 July 2020
18
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Financials and valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/ton
Return Ratios (%)
EBITDA Margins (%)
Net Profit Margins (%)
RoE
RoCE (pre-tax)
RoIC (pre-tax)
Working Capital Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtor (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors(Days)
Working Capital (Days)
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
Debt/Equity
2016
(0.0)
9.7
77.5
1.1
2017
14.9
29.0
94.4
0.8
6.1
2018
24.0
39.2
116.2
2.3
11.3
8.1
5.0
1.7
1.4
6.5
1.2
946
14.5
(0.0)
(0.0)
2.7
3.0
0.5
0.6
24
73
32
65
1.9
0.9
2.7
22.0
6.4
17.4
7.9
8.5
0.8
0.7
27
75
25
77
2.8
2.3
2.3
21.0
8.3
22.8
9.6
10.6
1.0
0.9
24
66
36
54
2.2
3.1
1.7
2019
31.8
48.3
145.0
3.3
12.2
6.5
4.3
1.4
1.3
5.7
1.6
974
22.4
9.0
24.4
11.0
13.0
1.1
0.8
31
63
26
68
3.0
3.8
1.7
2020
9.0
34.4
152.5
4.1
55.1
22.9
6.0
1.4
1.6
10.2
2.0
1,063
15.4
3.0
6.1
4.5
6.0
0.9
0.6
23
70
41
52
2.3
1.6
1.7
2021E
8.2
27.1
158.6
2.0
24.4
25.2
7.6
1.3
1.7
10.4
1.0
1,075
16.7
2.9
5.3
4.1
6.0
0.8
0.6
23
70
41
52
2.2
1.6
1.7
2022E
21.8
43.6
178.3
2.0
9.2
9.5
4.7
1.2
1.3
6.6
1.0
869
20.4
6.0
12.9
7.3
9.6
0.8
0.7
23
70
41
52
2.1
2.3
1.6
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March
EBITDA
Non cash exp. (income)
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Cap.
Tax Paid
CF from Op. Activity
(Inc)/Dec in FA + CWIP
(Pur)/sale of Invest.
Acquisition in subs.
Int. & Dividend Income
Others
CF from Inv. Activity
Equity raised/(repaid)
Debt raised/(repaid)
Dividend (incl. tax)
Interest paid
CF from Fin. Activity
(Inc)/Dec in Cash
Add: opening Balance
Regrouping etc
Closing Balance
2016
60,730
2,172
6,189
-2,055
67,035
-51,787
-1
631
39
-51,118
3,781
-3,536
-27,997
-27,752
-11,835
19,136
39
7,340
2017
1,22,598
-2,658
-38,690
-2,370
78,880
-44,350
-2,940
-1,470
1,180
450
-47,130
20
10,750
-2,180
-35,690
-27,100
4,650
7,340
5,860
17,850
2018
1,46,860
2,340
-11,010
-14,400
1,23,790
-47,360
90
-3,610
1,260
600
-49,020
-270
-39,920
-6,550
-35,110
-81,850
-7,080
17,850
2,980
13,750
2019
1,89,520
-1,080
-15,810
-26,300
1,46,330
-1,02,060
2,510
-14,270
1,580
-2240
-1,14,480
-1,530
66,540
-9,330
-38,150
17,530
49,380
13,750
-440
62,690
2020
1,11,570
11,440
16,390
-11,550
1,27,850
-1,28,100
850
1,000
5,130
-74740
-1,95,860
60
1,10,750
-11,950
-46,970
51,890
-16,120
62,690
73,480
1,20,050
2021E
1,12,150
420
-5,868
1,06,701
-90,000
(INR m)
2022E
1,78,246
-29,951
-15,159
1,33,135
-90,000
5,390
-84,610
5,444
-84,556
-4,799
-42,600
-47,400
-25,309
1,20,050
94,741
-4,799
-55,200
-60,000
-11,421
94,741
83,321
18 July 2020
19
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
NOTES
18 July 2020
20
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
< - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within
following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the
Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products.
MOFSL is a subsidiary company of Passionate Investment Management Pvt. Ltd.. (PIMPL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com. MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading
Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and National Commodity
& Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) National Securities Depository
Limited (NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRL and is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and Insurance Regulatory &
Development Authority of India (IRDA) as Corporate Agent for insurance products.
Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the
website at
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/List%20of%20Associate%20companies.pdf
MOFSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and
buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other
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any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the
specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even
though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report
MOFSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should
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A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental
research and Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOFSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from
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This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or
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to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these
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located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
For U.S.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under
applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOFSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act"
and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and
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investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document
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to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOFSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities
International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S.
registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public
appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets
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Specific Disclosures
1 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives does not have financial interest in the subject company, as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company.
2 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
3 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
4 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report
5 Research Analyst has not served as director/officer/employee in the subject company
6 MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
7 MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking/ merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
8 MOFSL has not received compensation for other than investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
9 MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
10 MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company
********************************************************************************************************************************
18 July 2020
21
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
JSW Steel
The associates of MOFSL may have:
- financial interest in the subject company
- actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
- received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
- other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the
specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even
though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
- acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
- be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies)
discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
- received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not
consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from
clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the
research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
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instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as
customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
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risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions
contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as
endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and
alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect
or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment
banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and
independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already
available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the
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errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263; Website
www.motilaloswal.com.CIN
no.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road,
Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.
Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company
Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management
Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is a distributor of
Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. which is a
group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL. Research & Advisory
services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no assurance or guarantee
of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance Officer: Name: Neeraj
Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
18 July 2020
22