This was published 7 years ago
Connectivity: The NBN: yesterday's technology tomorrow
Is the next-generation wonder going to arrive too late?
By Phil Wales
Every once in a while, when in a slightly bleak mood, I like to bring up the NBN website to check on the availability in my area. Hollow laughter usually ensues.
Currently the site tells me that the rollout of the NBN network is "planned" in my area, which is very re-assuring. I certainly wouldn't want it to come as a surprise. Less thrilling is the planned availability: somewhere between July and December, 2018. There is an asterisk next to the dates, to note that they are an estimate and could change. No kidding. . How many revised dates have we had for NBN completion?
The NBN: cables, cables everywhere.Credit: Fairfax Media
Lastly, there is the P\planned technology: NBN Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (HFC)?
So, not to put too fine a point on it – and I don't want to seem ungrateful – I can look forward, in the coming 18 months (maybe) to the same physical connection and download speed that Optus cable was offering me five years ago.
The NBN: yesterday's technology tomorrow. Be still my beating heart.
Previously, on The NBN That Time Forgot, you may recall that a "multi-technology mix" (MTM) or, as I like to think of it, the Tech TurDuckEn, was proposed to deliver the service "faster, cheaper, sooner" than the original "fibre to the home" proposal (which, to be fair, was not without its own delivery issues but which was aiming, in technology terms, somewhat higher).
Telstra's tarnishing copper (described by Telstra as being at "5 minutes to midnight" back in 2003), bits of Foxtel cable, a dash of Wi-Fi, a splash of satellite, six drops of essence of terror and some gaffer tape are apparently being cobbled together to deliver this next generation wonder.
You may also recall that one of the more strident criticisms of Labor's plan was centred on the lack of a cost-benefit analysis. It has been argued that there are some things which defy such analysis (the Sydney Harbour Bridge was one example I recall) because the benefits are both obvious and yet challenging to quantify.
It could also be argued that deploying good, scalable connectivity to Australian regional areas – which need it the most -- is never going to be cost-effective. One could follow that up by pointing to the parallel argument that government is not a business and that, perhaps, it is the business of government to address the things from which you can't make money.
Regardless, I wonder whether that other corporate norm, the risk assessment, has been performed. I wonder if the risk of deploying technology that is out-of-date before it is even in service is sitting on a risk-register somewhere.
Or the risk that technology progression (4K video, endless IoT devices – what do you mean my smart nappy can't get its update?) will render inadequate the connectivity by the time it arrives.
I wonder what the mitigations are. And who will "own" those? I suspect we could take a wild stab at who won't. It takes a special kind of political cynicism to sacrifice a country's digital future for short-term political gain.
The NBN, on current form, shows every chance of ending up alongside this government's other great technological achievements, such as the Centrelink robo-debt-collector (which can't be bargained with, can't be reasoned with, doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear, and it absolutely will not stop ... ever, until … anyway, you get the idea) and the census.
Here's a thought. There is a lesson that you can see play out pretty much every night on My Kitchen Rules. If you keep people waiting for much longer than they were expecting, then what you end up serving had better be pretty bloody good.
If it isn't, you tend to get marked rather harshly.