Sector Update | 6 April 2020
Consumer
Brent Crude Index
Commodity costs largely benign; packaging costs to drop
Savior in subdued demand environment
In this edition of our consumer sector update, we analyze price movement in key
commodities and identify companies under our coverage that could benefit from or be
negatively impacted by it. It is relevant to analyze price trends from the perspective of
4QFY20 earnings and beyond as topline growth in the sector is expected to be subdued
due to various factors, while the commodity cost impact being quite sharp in some cases.
Commodity costs remain largely benign for consumer companies
Mentha Oil prices INR/kg
Palm Fatty Acid price (INR/MT)
Consumer companies are expected to witness subdued sales growth due to an
uncertain demand environment, disruption in the supply chain on account of
COVID-19-related lockdown, channel liquidity issues, and rural slowdown,
among other factors. However, we believe lower input costs would offer some
relief to companies, providing room for spending on promotions/price-offs and
other offers to drive up category volumes once the lockdown impact ends. But,
rising competitive intensity would also mean low material cost’s benefits would
be nowhere near as high as they would in a more favorable operating
environment. Moreover, most companies in the sector have curtailed ad spend
/ new launches due to persistently weak demand. Therefore, promotion
intensity is expected to be high and affect realization and sales growth in the
quarter.
Crude prices plummet:
After trending up on a QoQ basis in 3QFY20, crude
prices began their downtrend 4QFY20 onwards – down 18.5% sequentially (up
1.1% in 3QFY20), down 19.3% YoY, and down 39.1% MoM at USD33.5 per barrel
levels (monthly average for March). A similar level was witnessed in Feb’16,
when crude prices came in at USD33 per barrel (previously observed in Mar’04).
Agri commodity basket sees moderate inflation/deflation in 3QFY20:
The sugar
index fell 2.4% QoQ / 2.6% YoY. On the other hand, wheat cost rose 7.5% YoY /
fell 3.1% QoQ, against fears of a further sequential increase. Barley cost
continued at high levels (up 10.8% YoY / 0.2% QoQ). Similarly, palm oil costs
were up 33.4% YoY / 7.5% QoQ. Mentha prices declined 21.8% YoY and 3.4%
QoQ. Copra costs came in flat YoY, but were up 6.5% QoQ (YTD Feb’20).
Non-agri commodity basket, barring gold and PFAD, sees deflation:
VAM costs
declined 18.2% YoY / 0.8% QoQ. Tio2 costs were down 9.5% YoY / 3.5%
sequentially. Up to Feb’20, HDPE costs declined ~15.2% YoY YTD, and LLP costs
were down 2.1% YoY YTD. Gold prices (MCX Gold) expanded 26.1% YoY and
7.3% sequentially. PFAD prices were up 49.5% YoY / 26.8% QoQ.
On an MoM basis, the entire commodity cost basket declined 4.4% on
average, v/s rising 1.2% QoQ and 2.7% YoY.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy – Research Analyst
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1545
Research Analyst: Pooja Doshi
(Pooja.Doshi@MotilalOswal.com) /Dhairya
Dhruv
(Dhairya.Dhruv@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Consumer
Impact on top picks: Hindustan Unilever (HUVR), Marico (MRCO)
HUVR:
HUVR is witnessing inflation in palm oil, but has undertaken adequate
price increases. Packaging costs are declining significantly, which would support
gross margins. Moreover, the company’s cost-saving measures, along with
premiumization across the portfolio, should aid margin improvement going
forward.
MRCO:
Copra costs still remain flat YoY, while other costs continue to decline,
filliping overall margin growth.
Other material beneficiaries: APNT, PIDI, CLGT, and HMN
APNT and PIDI:
APNT and PIDI are significant beneficiaries of declining VAM,
Tio2, and crude costs in the quarter. The sales growth outlook, however,
weakened in the last month of the quarter and remains weak during the
lockdown period.
CLGT:
The company is a significant beneficiary of the moderate crude price-
related packaging cost.
HMN:
Following several quarters of inflation impact on mentha, HMN is
expected to be a key beneficiary of ongoing decline in mentha and packaging
costs. A weak growth outlook, however, would likely restrict the potential
upside from such benefits.
UBBL and GSKCH:
Continued high barley costs are likely to impact the gross
margins of UBBL and GSKCH.
BRIT:
Wheat and sugar costs, which have been declining sequentially, witnessed
lower-than-expected inflation YoY. From an operating margin standpoint, the
company’s strategy of holding a very high level of lower cost inventory has
proved successful. Its all-time high margins in recent quarters and the sequential
deflation in wheat and sugar cost potentially indicates it has tided over the
threat of material cost inflation.
6 April 2020
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Consumer
Exhibit 1: 4QFY20 RM scenario — Commodity costs witnessing moderate inflation or deflation
Commodities (%)
Non-Agri commodities
Brent Crude Index
TiO2 (INR/kg)
Titanium Dioxide (CNY/metric tonne)
India WPI Phthalic anhydride^
VAM prices (USD/MT)^
HDPE (INR/Kg)*
Liquid Paraffin (INR/Lt)*
Agri commodities
Malaysian Palm Oil (MYR/MT)
Copra Calicut INR/100Kg *
Mentha Oil (INR/kg)
Wheat Prices (INR/Quintal)
Sugar index
India Wholesale Price Ind. Cashew Nut^
SMP Prices (INR/Kg)
India CPI coffee powder gm^
NCDEX Barley Spot (INR/quintal)
Other key commodities
PFAD (INR/MT)
MCXGOLd Comdty
Segment impacted
Paints, Adhesives, Packaging and Logistics
Paints
Paints
Paints
Polymers and resins for adhesives,
paints and end-products
Packaging (Plastic bottles)
Hair oils
Foods (palm oil from the flesh of the fruit) and
others (mainly palm kernel oil)
Hair oil
Flavors & Fragrances
Food products
Food products
Food products
Food products
Food products
Beer
Soaps
Jewellery
4QFY20 Change
YoY
QoQ
(19.3)
(9.5)
(5.6)
(4.5)
(18.2)
(15.2)
(2.1)
33.4
(0.4)
(21.8)
7.5
(2.6)
(1.9)
21.7
0.9
10.8
49.5
26.1
(18.5)
(3.5)
(0.2)
1.1
(0.8)
1.9
2.2
7.5
6.5
(3.4)
(3.1)
(2.4)
0.6
(2.4)
1.1
0.2
26.8
7.3
MoM
Change
(39.1)
1.6
1.5
3.2
2.3
0.0
(2.2)
(11.8)
0.4
(0.4)
(12.1)
(1.6)
0.2
(5.0)
0.4
(9.2)
(9.2)
1.4
#Cal. on qtr. avg. price, ^data till Jan’20, *Feb’20
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 2: Crude down 19.3% YoY; 18.5% QoQ in 4QFY20
Exhibit 3: TiO2 down 9.5% YoY; down 3.5% QoQ
TiO2 price (INR/kg)
107.0
Brent Crude Index
250
250
22.0
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
Exhibit 4: VAM prices down 18.2% YoY /0.8% QoQ till Jan’20
VAM prices (USD/MT)
Exhibit 5: Copra (till Feb’20) down 0.4% YoY; up 6.5% QoQ
Copra Calicut INR/100Kg
14,172
1,409
863
8,484
11,102
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL
6 April 2020
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Consumer
Exhibit 6: HDPE (till Feb’20) prices down 15.2% YoY; up 1.9%
QoQ
HDPE INR / Kg
Exhibit 7: LLP (till Feb’20) prices down 2.1% YoY; up 2.2%
QoQ
119
71
Liquid Paraffin INR / Lt
45
87
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
Exhibit 8: PFAD prices up 49.5% YoY; 26.8% QoQ
Palm Fatty Acid price (INR/MT)
Exhibit 9: Palm oil prices up 33.4% YoY; 7.5% QoQ
Palm Oil (Malaysian Ringgit Per Metric Tonne)
47,165
2,751
2,482
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
Exhibit 10: Mentha prices down 21.8% YoY; 3.4% QoQ
Mentha Oil prices INR / kg
Exhibit 11: MCX gold commodity up 26.1% YoY; 7.3% QoQ
MCXGOLd Comdty
1,340
930
28.619
38,152
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
Exhibit 12: Wheat prices up 7.5% YoY; down 3.1% QoQ
Wheat prices (INR/Quintal)
Exhibit 13: Sugar prices down 2.6% YoY; 2.4% QoQ
Sugar Prices
3,320
1,523
1,850
3,170
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
6 April 2020
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Consumer
Exhibit 14: Key RM and gross margins of FMCG companies
Company
Asian Paints
Britannia
Colgate-Palmolive
Dabur
Emami
GCPL
GSK Cons. Healthcare
HUL
Marico
Nestle
Pidilite
United Spirits
Across FMCG
Major RMs
Pigment & additives-TiO2, solvents-TiO2, monomers
Wheat, vegetable oil, sugar, milk
Sorbitol, oils, various chemicals
LLP, fruit concentrates
Mentha oil
PFAD, LAB, various chemicals
Barley, milk powder, malt extract, wheat flour
Chemicals & perfumes, oils, fats & resins, tea
Copra
Milk, coffee, sugar, wheat flour, vegetable oil
VAM
Spirits, grain
Packaging cost are crude linked
FY20E Gross
Margin (%)
42.9
40.4
65.4
50.4
66.2
56.6
69.9
54.1
48.4
57.8
53.0
45.5
-
Pricing
power
High
Moderate
High
Moderately High
Moderately High
Moderately High
High
High
Moderate
High
High
Moderate
-
Source: MOFSL, Company
6 April 2020
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Consumer
NOTES
6 April 2020
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Consumer
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UNDER REVIEW
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< - 10%
< - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
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days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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6 April 2020
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Consumer
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Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
6 April 2020
8