Cyclone "Thane" - Intensified now! and tracking West!

Position, 3pm :: 12:03:00 N , 84:42:09 E
Winds :: 95 Km/hr
Pressure :: 991mb
Now COLA GFS model also agrees to near Chennai landfall on early hrs of 30-Dec as a Cyclone.
Chennai is experiencing Stiff winds from N-N-W for the past 1hr.
IMD expects that "probability of slight weakening before landfall"

Latest satellite IR shot, 3pm
--------------------------------------------------------------

IMD warning, 1:30pm
----------------------------------------------------

Sub : Cyclonic Storm 'THANE' over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Orange Message

The cyclonic storm 'THANE' over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 28^th December 2011 near latitude 12.5⁰N and longitude 85.0⁰E, about 500 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 600 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 800 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify further during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Nellore, close to south of Chennai around morning of 30^th December 2011. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall

JTWC warning and projected path, 2:30pm
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

280900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS 
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS DESPITE PERSISTENT 
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS), EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THIS 
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY DUE TO THE GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW. A 280256Z 
SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH A MICROWAVE EYE 
FEATURE AND SYMMETRIC EYEWALL, ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED. THE 
SSMIS IMAGE, HOWEVER, INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TILTED SLIGHTLY 
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM 
THE SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK 
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 06B IS TRACKING 
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNTIL 
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN 
BAY OF BENGAL IS FILLING AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD WITH ZONAL FLOW 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING THE STR TO STRENGTHEN AND MAINTAIN THE 
WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUBSEQUENTLY MODEL 
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK, 
ESPECIALLY GFS WHICH HAD INDICATED A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND IS NOW 
WESTWARD. WBAR REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN UNREALISTIC 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BUT HAD PREVIOUSLY INDICATED A RE-CURVE 
SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK 
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS WITH MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY THE GOOD OUTFLOW. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 21 FEET.