Cyclone "Thane" - Slowly Moving W-N-W and intensifying !!

Position, 7:30am :: 12:36:21 N , 85:21:06 E
Pressure :: 991mb
Winds :: 95 Km/Hr
Chennai may get a direct hit on early hrs of 30-Dec, but the system may be a Deep Depression at the time of landfall !! Next 24hrs will decide the strength.


Latest satellite IR shot,
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IMD warning, 7:30am
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 Cyclonic Storm "THANE" over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Yellow Message

The cyclonic storm "THANE" over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 28^th December 2011 near latitude 12.5⁰N and longitude 86.0⁰E, about 600 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 650 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 700 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards slowly, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Nellore around morning of 30^th December 2011.

JTWC warning and projected path, 2:30am
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272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 85.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
CONVECTION DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 271419Z 37 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS A 
CONCENTRIC AND WELL-ORGANIZED LLCC, WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP 
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SYSTEM IS SEPARATING FROM VIGOROUS WESTERLIES ON THE EQUATORIAL 
SIDE, WHICH MAY LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE WEAKENING EFFECTS OF SHEAR ARE BEING 
COMPENSATED BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW 
AND THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. TC 06B IS UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE IN A REGION OF HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 26 
TO 27 DEGREES. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER 
MYANMAR IS DRIVING TC 06B WESTWARD. THERE IS A MILD WEAKNESS IN THE 
RIDGE OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT, AND GFS IS SHOWING AN 
EXAGGERATED POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN RESPONSE TO THAT WEAKNESS. OTHER 
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STEERING THE STORM WESTWARD TO MAKE 
LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALONG TRACK BRINGING 
ABOUT A WEAKEING TREND PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS 
SOUTH OF CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR THE POLEWARD TRACKS OF 
GFS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 20 FEET.