Democrats Carper, Blunt Rochester have big leads, University of Delaware poll says

Incumbent Democrats Sen. Tom Carper and Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester are holding a commanding lead over their respective Republican challengers six weeks before the general election, according to a new poll from the University of Delaware's Center for Political Communication.

The survey found Carper is winning over 61 percent of likely voters compared to 24 percent for Republican Sussex County Councilman Rob Arlett – the largest margin the center has recorded over the last three election cycles.

Another 6 percent said they plan to vote for Green Party candidate Demitri Theodoropoulos or Libertarian Nadine Frost while 9 percent are undecided.

Rochester is leading Republican Scott Walker by a slightly slimmer margin of 58-28, with 15 percent of voters undecided.

The 30-point differential in the House race might be the more surprising result. The Delaware GOP on Thursday disavowed Walker following a series of Facebook posts in which the 61-year-old Milford candidate called Blunt Rochester – Delaware's first black or female Congresswoman – an "Aunt Tom" and accused the state's top Democratic officials of being racist.

The 37-point advantage attributed to Carper also comes after The News Journal on Sept. 19 published the resignation letter of its former New Castle County Committee chairman, in which he attacks the integrity and character of Arlett.

The Republican challenger's campaign responded two days later by saying it has enough to worry about without party in-fighting.

"We did our poll before those stories broke," said professor Paul Brewer, who oversaw the study. "But I do wonder how much of a difference they would have made given how low a profile Arlett and Walker have among voters. I suspect they are pulling from their base but not much more."

The poll, conducted from Sept. 11 to 17, indicates Carper and Blunt Rochester are winning across almost every demographic in all three Delaware counties.

"It's no surprise that Carper, a Delaware institution, and Blunt Rochester – a Democrat in a blue state running against a politically damaged opponent – are enjoying comfortable leads," Brewer said. "What is surprising is how much they're winning by, where they are winning and the support they are receiving from voters who typically cast their ballots for candidates on the other side of the aisle."

Carper, for instance, is pulling support from 25 percent of likely Republican voters while, Blunt Rochester is winning over 11 percent of GOP survey respondents, the survey shows.

Carper also is winning over 52 percent of likely voters in Arlett's backyard of Sussex County, typically a stronghold for Republicans. Blunt Rochester is gathering support from 45 percent of voters in Delaware's most southern county, according to the survey.

That could be more than enough for Carper to earn a third term in the U.S. Senate and Blunt Rochester to win a second term in the U.S. House since Democrats outnumber Republicans statewide by a wide margin. 

"Tom Carper travels up and down this state every week, and he hears firsthand from Delawareans who want him to keep fighting for affordable, high-quality health care, an economy that works for everyone and a cleaner, safer environment for our kids and grandkids," said Carper campaign spokeswoman Katie Wilson. "Tom has never taken anything for granted, and this race is no different."

Arlett largely dismissed the poll and said he is not at all discouraged by its findings.

"Similar polls said President Trump had no chance two years ago and we all know what happened then," he said. "Polls are not reflective of all the people. They only reflect the people who were polled."

Arlett said he believes voters are demanding change, noting that prescription drug prices are rising, industry is struggling and poverty levels in Delaware continue to rise.

"All of that is because of the lack of leadership from Tom Carper," he said. "He no longer represents the Delaware Way. Instead, he represents his way and the Democrat way."

Blunt Rochester's campaign manager Sean Dwyer called the poll results proof that the Congresswoman's "bipartisan, pro-growth message" is reaching voters throughout the state.

"Every vote matters on Nov. 6 and our campaign is working hard to harness the energy of voters up and down the state," he said. "The Congresswoman looks forward to campaigning with one of the most progressive and diverse slates of Democratic candidates in our state's history to get out the vote on Election Day."

Walker also cheered the poll results, calling them "the best news anyone could give me" despite the 30-point deficit.

"I'm honestly honored and humbled anyone would vote for me," he said. "I have not really spent any money and I don't have a reputation while she's a historic figure so I feel very good about the poll results."

The poll was funded by UD's Center for Political Communication with support from the College of Arts and Sciences. It was conducted by Abt Associates, which contacted 995 voters by landline and cell phone. About 730 of those voters identified themselves as likely voters.

The margin of error is 3.7 percentage points. 

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Contact reporter Scott Goss at (302) 324-2281, sgoss@delawareonline.com or on Twitter @ScottGossDel.