Immigration the 'must see' political fight of 2012 session (George Talbot)

anti-immigration rally 020712.jpgAbout a dozen protestors gather outside the Capitol to demonstrate against Alabama's immigration law prior to Gov. Robert Bentley's State of the State address to a combined session of the Alabama Legislature in Montgomery, Ala., Tuesday, Feb. 7, 2012. Another protest of the law is scheduled for Tuesday, Feb. 14.(AP Photo/Dave Martin)

There will be conflict over charter schools, a rumble over redistricting and a battle royale over the state budget. But perhaps no debate in the new session of the Alabama Legislature involves bigger stakes than the effort to revise the state’s immigration law.

Fixing it is both an economic imperative and a political dilemma for Republican leaders.

If left unchanged, the law will reduce Alabama’s gross domestic product — the total value of goods and services in the state — by as much as $10.8 billion this year, according to a top state economist. The law’s economic costs will also include up to $264 million in lost state tax revenue, compounding a budget crisis that could lead to drastic cuts in state services.

Any benefit from House Bill 56 is marginal compared to the huge costs to the state in terms of real and perceived damage, said Sam Addy, director of the University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research.

"It’s a net loss for the state," Addy said Tuesday. "And I’m not even talking about the moral perspective."

Republican leaders say they’re willing to make changes, but the path forward is precarious.

On most bills, the GOP’s super-majority allows it to steamroll Democratic lawmakers — who can do little more than provide a speed bump. Immigration, by contrast, is the rare political issue that pits powerful forces within the Republican Party against one another.

The state’s business community — a vital source of campaign cash — wants changes to a law that has become a public relations problem for economic developers and a burden on employers.

Conservative groups — a vital source of votes — remain staunchly in favor of the law, and have vowed to resist any attempt to weaken its provisions. They’re poised to fight even revisions suggested by Attorney General Luther Strange to some of the legal wording.

"Why would GOP leaders rush to change our immigration law that’s working so well that illegal aliens are self-deporting in droves?" asked Elois Zeanah, president of the Alabama Federation of Republican Women.

The challenge for House Speaker Mike Hubbard and Senate President Del Marsh is to change the law in ways that quiet its harshest critics — and, along the way, get Alabama out of the international spotlight — while at the same time maintaining it enough to satisfy the conservative base. So far, they’ve pledged only to "improve" HB56, carefully avoiding specific changes that could rile up the opposition.

Veteran statehouse reporter Chuck Dean calls immigration the "must-watch fight in the Legislature this year."

Dean predicted that the money and influence wielded by the Business Council of Alabama, among other business interests, ultimately will prevail over the passions of social conservatives.

"It will be a tough fight," said Dean, a senior political reporter for The Birmingham News, "but the Republicans are learning what Adam and Eve learned a long time ago — that some low-hanging fruit is not good for you."

_____

Last week's column, which reported on a Tea Party rally in which two congressional candidates said they would introduce articles of impeachment against President Barack Obama, drew plenty of controversy. The column included a quote from the rally's moderator, Quin Hillyer of Mobile, who called to clarify that his observation of "pure demagoguery" referred not to the issue of impeachment, but to other comments made by candidates at the event.

_____

Political editor George Talbot's column runs Wednesdays. Reach him at 251-219-5623 or gtalbot@press-register.com. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/georgetalbot

If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our User Agreement and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our Privacy Policy.