Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Sector Update | Technology

Technology

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So far, so good

Deal wins in 1HCY19 v/s 1HCY18 suggest healthy, not cautious macros



Amid claims of softening macros and multiple uncertainties, we compared the

deal activity in 1HCY19 to that of 1HCY18, on the basis of key data points —

aggregate deal TCVs as reported by ISG-One, and 1HCY19 deal TCVs at TCS, INFO

and ACN.

ISG had anticipated softer deal activity amid the on-going concerns around trade

wars, Brexit and the recessionary fears around a few developed economies.

However, deal activity has been surprisingly strong despite the macro

headwinds. Pipeline is strong in ADM and IMS. ISG-One’s survey of most

providers indicates positive growth patterns at the year-end.

While order bookings for Accenture were on the softer side, the company

reiterated its lumpy nature on a quarterly basis, brushing off any demand

concerns. It expects to play catch-up given the strong pipeline.

For INFO and TCS, deals TCV reflected a business-as-usual scenario in the June

quarter. While the USD2.7b TCV figure at INFO was a historical high, it was

steady growth, once adjusted for the inorganic contribution from Stater NV.

(TCS started sharing this data from 2QCY18. For 1QCY18, we have approximated

the TCV at USD6b, on the basis of Transamerica (USD2.5b), Prudential and

Marks & Spencer – assuming these to be 60-70% of the total deals won).

Execution on deals won should take care of the remainder of the calendar year.

All entities mentioned above have cited a very healthy pipeline, suggesting that

deal activity is likely to remain strong for the remainder of CY19. This, in turn,

should bode positively for revenue growth over the next one year,

notwithstanding any macro shocks.

Exhibit 2:

Infosys deal wins

11.9

TCV ( USD B)

4.3

Exhibit 1:

TCS deal wins

TCV (USD B)

10.9

1.6

1.5

2.0

1HCY18

1HCY19

**1QCY18 deals taken as USD6b (large wins)

1HCY16

1HCY17

1HCY18

1HCY19

Source: Company, MOFSL

Ashish Chopra

– Research analyst

(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530

Research Analyst: Anmol Garg

(Anmol.Garg@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 7193 4271 /

Mohit Sharma

(Mohit.Sharma@MotilalOswal.com)

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Investors

16 July 2019

are

advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Sector Update | Technology

Exhibit 3:

Accenture Deal wins

TCV (USD B)

10.4

9.6

8.7

9.1

Exhibit 4:

Total global deal wins (ISG- Large deals)

ACV (USD B)

21.9

9.1

1HFY16

1HFY17

1HFY18

1HFY19

1HFY17

1HFY18

1HFY19

**Excluded SaaS

*Only outsourcing, Source: Company, MOFSL

Key takeaways on deal activity from ISG commentary



ISG had anticipated softer deal activity amid the on-going concerns surrounding

trade wars, Brexit and recessionary fears around a few developed economies.

However, deal activity has been surprisingly strong despite macro headwinds.

Technology providers remain positive for the near term.

For the most recent quarter, Managed Services deals (IMS + ADM + BPO) in

Americas reported a slight decline. But this was drive by some delayed

decisions, while overall spends remained vibrant. Nothing systemic that should

be read as a cause for concern, on the sequential decline in Managed Services

deals. Additionally, the base was tough to grow from. Pipeline is strong in ADM

and IMS. Most providers expect positive growth patterns at the year-end.

Both the ACV and duration of deals have been getting shorter, but at the same

time overall spends are increasing.

Towers are spreading out across a number of vendors in Managed Services, as

opposed to one or select 2-3 vendors. It is fragmenting and growing. Managed

Services is growing ~3.5% and as-a-service is growing 20%+.

Gen-1: 19 USD1b deals annually till 2006; signed with one Services provider; The

Service providers takes over assets and people on to its books; and costs are

reduced by 15-20%. Areas of work are largely Applications and Infrastructure.

Gen-2: 14 USD1b deals annually from 2007-14. ACV dropped from USD32 to

USD20m. Average deal duration reduced to 4.25 years, down from five years.

The great recession was just beginning, Companies put out their 10-year

contracts for rebidding – lower cost locations became an option, reducing cost

of new tech by 25-30% savings. This was the sweet spot for India heritage firms.

Gen-3: Eight USD1b deals per year during 2015-18. Emergence of Cloud. There

were more tech buyers within the firms, and hence more vendors were called

upon. This drove an increase in overall spending. More focus on growth and

speed. Cost reduction is also 25-30%.

16 July 2019

Sector Update | Technology

Exhibit 5:

ISG deal win activity

Scorecard

Global Commercial Combined Market

By Type

Managed Services

As-a-Service

By Region

Americas Combined

EMEA Combined

Asia Pacific Combined

6.5

2.2

13.4

12%

6.7

-3%

14%

13.7

23%

2Q19 ACV ($B)

13.7

2Q Y/Y Change

1H19 ACV ($B)

27.7

1H19 Change

10%

4.3

19%

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 6:

Growth majorly coming in from SaaS-based deals…

50%

25%

-25%

-50%

Business

Services

Retial

Energy

BFSI

Healthcare

manufacturing

Telecom

Travel

Managed Services

SaaS

Combined market

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 7:

…therefore while the spending on technology is increasing, average duration and ACV is decreasing

Average ACV (USD M)

4.25

3.25

Duration ( Years)

1999-2006

2007-2014

2015-2018

Source: MOFSL, Company

16 July 2019

Sector Update | Technology

Key comments around deal wins / pipeline



TCS:

“Our deal pipeline continues to be very healthy and well distributed across

verticals and geographies. Demand outlook and overall competitiveness is very-

very strong. I am confident today as we were even two, three quarters back; we

were speaking about a revival. So, confidence from medium to long-term

perspective is high.”

Infosys:

“What we do see is good traction in our large deal pipeline and we see

today’s demand for all of our digital work where we have shown growth at

41.9%. That is giving us confidence to raise the guidance.”

Accenture:

“Let me just say that we are very, very pleased with the demand

environment. So let’s be clear on that. That’s reflected in our revenue growth

year-to-date, it’s reflected in the revenue growth that we see in the New, it’s

reflected in what we feel is a very strong pipeline position as we closed out the

third quarter, and it’s reflected in our statement and our confidence that we will

have strong bookings in the fourth quarter.”

Exhibit 8:

Valuation table

CMP

(INR) Rating

Tier-I Technology

2,105

TCS

785

Infosys

260

Wipro

1,027

HCL Tech

1,018

TechM

Tier-II Technology

921

Mphasis

1,644

LTI

747

Mindtree

541

Cyient

360

Hexaware

1,344

NIIT Tech

616

Persistent

245

Zensar

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

EPS (INR)

PE (INR)

Rev.(USD m)

CAGR (FY19-21)

RoE

FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E

83.5

35.4

14.8

73.6

48.5

56.1

86.6

44.8

43.4

19.3

67.0

44.0

13.8

88.5

37.6

17.0

80.3

53.0

64.2

92.6

50.2

48.3

20.2

75.1

53.3

16.3

100.2

44.0

18.4

94.0

60.2

71.5

104.6

60.8

51.6

24.1

86.2

60.2

19.1

25.2

22.2

17.6

14.0

21.0

16.4

19.0

16.7

12.5

18.6

20.1

14.0

17.7

23.8

20.9

15.3

12.8

18.9

14.3

17.8

14.9

11.2

17.8

17.9

11.6

15.1

21.0 20,913 22,708 24,979

17.9 11,799 12,919 14,251

14.2 8,120 8,605 9,240

10.9 8,633 9,878 10,864

16.7 4,971 5,220 5,687

12.9

15.7

12.3

10.5

15.0

15.6

10.2

12.8

1,119 1,258 1,413

1,349 1,513 1,732

1,001 1,116 1,257

660

711

783

678

806

969

528

598

670

481

514

565

567

637

717

Rev. Earnings FY19 FY20E FY21E

9.3

9.9

6.7

12.2

7.0

12.4

13.3

12.0

8.9

19.6

12.7

8.4

12.5

9.6

11.4

11.5

13.0

12.3

35.6

25.0

17.4

25.7

22.0

36.7

25.6

18.3

24.6

22.7

40.9

29.6

20.6

25.7

23.9

12.9

20.0 22.3 22.1

9.9

34.6 29.4 26.8

16.4

24.3 23.3 24.6

9.1

18.7 18.8 18.2

11.6

26.5 24.0 25.5

13.4

21.4 20.8 20.9

17.0

15.6 16.9 17.6

17.6

17.3 17.7 18.1

Source: MOFSL, Company

16 July 2019

Sector Update | Technology

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

BUY

SELL

NEUTRAL

UNDER REVIEW

NOT RATED

Expected return (over 12-month)

>=15%

< - 10%

< - 10 % to 15%

Rating may undergo a change

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30

days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

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The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations,

is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a subsidiary

company of Passionate Investment Management Pvt. Ltd.. (PIMPL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on www.motilaloswal.com. MOFSL

(erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for its

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and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to Subject Company for which Research Team have expressed their views.

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This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use

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or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.

For U.S.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state

laws in the United States. In addition MOFSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934

Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by

MOFSL , including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as

defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on

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interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOFSL has entered into a

chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be

executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.

The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered

broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading

securities held by a research analyst account.

For Singapore

In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets services

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such an institutional investor, such Singapore Person must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and inform MOCMSPL.

Specific Disclosures

1 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives does not have financial interest in the subject company, as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company.

2 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company

3 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months

4 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report

5 Research Analyst has not served as director/officer/employee in the subject company

6 MOSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months

7 MOSL has not received compensation for investment banking/ merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months

8 MOSL has not received compensation for other than investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months

9 MOSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report

10 MOSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company

********************************************************************************************************************************

The associates of MOFSL may have:

financial interest in the subject company

actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company

received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months

16 July 2019

Sector Update | Technology

other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific

recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there

might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.

acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months

be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies)

discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)

received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.

The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report

Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider

demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not

considered in above disclosures.

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research

analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.

Terms & Conditions:

This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be

altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOFSL. The report is

based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from

publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made

as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not

constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers

simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.

Disclaimer:

The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or

in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be

used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal,

accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this

report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This

may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at

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is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is

provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The

Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and

the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform

or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a

separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is

already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the

views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or

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licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose

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liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.

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costs, damages,

expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.

Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263; Website

www.motilaloswal.com.CIN no.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad(West), Mumbai-

400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.

Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI:

ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration

No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.:

INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond,

NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered

through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL. Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk

Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk,

read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.

* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company Law

Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.

16 July 2019