Sector Update | 3 July 2020
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas
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US Shale industry- Bankruptcies on the rise
In our earlier report (Oil
not
low for long)
published on 1
st
Jun’20, we had
highlighted that few shale companies in the US had already gone bankrupt with
the possibility of a few more being on the way toward bankruptcy.
The total number of E&P bankruptcies has risen to 20 so far
(see exhibit 1, 2, 3).
The latest victim is Chesapeake Energy, one of the pioneers of the US shale
industry, with a total debt of USD9b. The lower prevailing oil prices are expected
to result in write-down of ~USD300b of global E&P assets.
Please refer our earlier reports
Crude Oil prices - Low not
for long
The US rig count fell to a record low
of 278 units in the week ended 26
th
Jun’20
(decline of 65% since Mar’20 and 72% YoY), even as oil prices rebounded from
historic lows as some producers restarted production. As per Baker Hughes
data, the worldwide rig count has declined 52% YoY to 1,073 units (v/s 2,221
units in Jun’19).
According to a Platts Analytics Spotlight report, rigs are expected to stay
relatively flat until early-2021 as operators are expected to wait several months
for higher oil prices before starting to gradually increase rig count.
Global lockdowns on account of COVID-19 has led to huge demand destruction,
which saw crude oil prices sink to historic lows. With lifting of the lockdowns
across the world, demand is again seeing an uptick. On the supply side,
production cuts, both intentional (OPEC++) and unintentional (due to poor
economies/bankruptcies), appear to be putting upward pressure on oil prices.
We reiterate our belief that in the near term Brent would stabilize between
USD40-50/bbl and settle at USD50-60/bbl in the longer run.
Indian upstream companies – growth in offing
Sensitivity for Indian E&P companies
Oil prices:
We have built in crude price assumption of USD50/bbl for FY22E (a
normalized scenario v/s USD40/bbl in FY21). On this, a change of USD1/bbl in oil
price impacts EPS of ONGC (consol.)/OINL by 3%/4%.
Gas prices:
Our gas price forecast stands at USD2.8/mmBtu for FY21 and
USD3.0/mmBtu for FY22E. A change of USD1/mmBtu in gas price for FY22E
would impact EPS by 22%/14% for ONGC (consol.)/OINL.
According to a
media article,
the government is formulating a structure to give
Indian upstream companies some relief in royalty and cess as well as certain
other reliefs. According to our model calculation, 1% change in cess results in
EPS change of 2%/4% for ONGC (consol.)/OINL.
ONGC did not see any reduction in crude oil demand starting 1
st
Apr’20.
However, gas production saw modest decline of 9% during the lockdown, which
has now been restored to normal pre-COVID levels.
In FY20, ONGC made total 12 discoveries (7 onshore, 5 offshore). Of this, 7 are
prospects (3 onshore, 4 offshore) and 5 are pools (4 onshore, 1 offshore). During
FY21, ONGC has notified 3 discoveries so far (2 in offshore deep-water KG-DWN-
98/2 block and 1 in onshore block in Nomination PML, Tripura).
ONGC: PT INR105 - Buy
Swarnendu Bhushan- Research Analyst
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com)
Sarfraz Bhimani - Research Analyst
(Sarfraz.Bhimani@MotilalOswal.com)
3 July 2020
1
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Oil & Gas
The company is also expected to grow its gas production by ~12%/26% to
27.9bcm/35.2bcm in FY21/FY22E. While no oil production growth is expected,
ONGC’s efforts to arrest decline from age-old fields (accounting for 60-70% of
the total oil production) is commendable.
ONGC is trading at 3.3x FY22E EV/EBITDA and 4.3x FY22E P/E of INR19.0 with
FY22E PBV of 0.5x. We value the company at 10x FY22E adj. EPS of INR7.8 and
add value of investments to arrive at a target price of INR105. Reiterate
Buy.
In the long run, the company intends to add gas production of ~5msmcmd
starting 2024-25E (on current 7.5mmscmd), while arresting the decline in oil
production.
However, we expect no incremental change in production volumes for both oil
and gas in the near term. Also, OINL has guided for oil and gas production in
FY21 to be marginally lower YoY.
The stock trades at 6.1x FY22E EV/EBIDTA and 5.7x FY22E EPS of INR17.1 with
FY22E PBV of 0.4x. We use SOTP-based fair value of 8x FY22E adj. EPS of INR13.7
and add investments to arrive at a price target of INR110. Maintain
Buy.
E&P
TOTAL
54
62
50
30
16
29
44
34
35
65
46 46 49
30 25
SERVICES
BRENT (USD/BBL)
54 50 52
62
67
MIDSTREAM
75 75
67 63 69
62 63
51
27
30
22
15 15
Oil India: PT INR110 - Buy
Exhibit 1: US bankruptcies v/s Brent prices
23 23 17 20
11
16
7
8
8
15
Source: Haynes and Boone, MOFSL
Exhibit 2: Yearly bankruptcies in US rising…
E&P
MIDSTREAM
155
52
75
SERVICES
BRENT (USD/BBL)
64
Exhibit 3: …with total debt while filing for bankruptcies (as
st
on 31 May, 2020)
Total debt while filing bankrupty (USD bn)
E&P
SERVICES
83.2
40
65
12.8
13.5
27.2
4.5
5.3
17.4
2015
56.8
46.8
3.0
35.3
8.5
2016
2017
17.2
0.2
3.9
13.2
2018
25.8
2019
MIDSTREAM
TOTAL
107.6
1.1
71
13
44
54
83
80.7
25.2
0.4
14.2
10.5
2020
4
72
7
33
38
2015
70
2016
52
24
2017
42
12
28
2018
2
21
2
37
3
42
2019
14
20
2020
Source: Haynes and Boone, MOFSL
Source: Haynes and Boone, MOFSL
Exhibit 4: Indian upstream companies – valuation snapshot
Company
Oil India
ONGC
Div.
Yield
FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E
22.9 10.6
17.1
4.3
9.2
5.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
3.7
10.2
6.1
9.9
4.8
7.5
10.9
13.1 11.1
19.0
6.3
7.5
4.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
3.3
4.9
3.3
7.9
6.7
10.8
6.1
EPS (INR)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
ROE (%)
3 July 2020
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Oil & Gas
Exhibit 5: Region-wise bankruptcy filings in the US from 2015-20
Source: Haynes and Boone, MOFSL
Exhibit 6: Weekly North America rig count on downward
trend since Feb’20
US
CANADA
Exhibit 7: US Shale rigs in services reduced after 2016 crisis
as producers improved efficiencies of their wells
2500
2000
US Rigs (LHS)
US (mbopd) (LHS)
14
12
North America Rig Count
Change since Mar'20 :
Total NorthAm: -72%
US: -67%
Canada : -94%
1500
1000
500
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
10
8
6
4
Source: Baker Hughes, MOFSL
Source: Baker Hughes, MOFSL
Exhibit 8: US rigs move in exact tandem with global crude oil
prices (currently lowest in last one decade)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Source: Baker Hughes, MOFSL
US Rigs (LHS)
Brent (RHS)
150
120
Exhibit 9: Change in rig counts
Rig count
Mar
Jun
June YoY % change
1964
-31%
90
1059
60
30
0
Total Intl.
781
-84%
133 18
Canada
772
-72%
274
1073
-52%
U.S.
Total World
Source: Baker Hughes, MOFSL
3 July 2020
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Oil & Gas
Exhibit 10: Global E&P companies – peer comparison
Source: Company, Bloomberg, MOFSL
Exhibit 11: Region-wise bankruptcy filings in US from 2015-20
Source: Oil sands magazine, MOFSL
3 July 2020
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Oil & Gas
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
< - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within
following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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3 July 2020
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Oil & Gas
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Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
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* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
3 July 2020
6