Does Adobe Edge Signal the End of Flash?
Adobe Edge is a new development tool for HTML5, an open format that's slowly replacing Adobe's own Flash. Why would the company cannibalize itself in this way?
Today Adobe announced Edge, a new tool for designing Web content in HTML5, which, from the facts, sounds like one of the most boring tech stories to start the news week. But there's a good part: HTML5 is widely viewed as a competitor to one of Adobe's main products, Flash, the standard that most Web video, dynamic sites, and games are based on. So by throwing more support behind HTML5, which is an open format and not owned by any company, Adobe's kind of acting semi-suicidal. Why would it do something like that?
Reality, mainly. The writing is on the wall for Flash. HTML5 is on the rise, and Adobe knows it needs to get on board the train or get left behind. While the Adobe people say Edge will supplement, rather than supplant, their Flash arsenal, they're kind of kidding themselves. Sure, Flash is still big, and developers will continue to work on it, but it's slowly being pushed aside.
Evidence: The HTTP Archive, which collects site data from over thousands of sites all over the Web, shows that Adobe Flash usage on the Internet's Top 100 websites has dropped from 38 to 34 percent between November 2010 and July 2011. Doing a Google search for "flash developer jobs" from the past 24 hours turns up 511,000 results; a year ago the same search produced 832,000 results. By the same token, searching for "HTML5 developer jobs" turns up 243,000 results today vs. 116,000 a year ago.
This was probably inevitable. Flash is in some ways fundamentally clunky—it needs a plug-in to work properly in your browser, and that plug-in needs continual updating (and that's on top of your usual browser updates). Building websites with Flash has historically been more costly and less reliable than other techniques, though Adobe has done much to address those factors in recent years.
Ultimately, though, this has more to do with Apple and its power struggle against Adobe with regards to Flash. The long and short of it, which is somewhat proved by Adobe Edge, is Apple won. Steve Jobs is a notorious opponent of Flash. Although it's (reluctantly) supported on Macs, it's nowhere to be found on iPhones, iPads, and iPod touches. Apple has declared Flash unfit for mobile, and whether or not that's true, Apple's massive influence in the space (and especially tablets) makes whatever Apple perceives a reality to a large extent.
Google Android was supposed to be a champion for Flash, but it hasn't turned out that way. Although demand for Android phones has been , it's unclear if their support for Flash—which didn't come until —is making any difference. Tablets, with their larger screens and fast processors, are more suited to video, but to date not a single Android tablet has risen to genuinely challenge the iPad, and the manufacturers are now said to be pulling back and rethinking their strategies. If Flash support were the differentiator it was supposed to be, you'd think people would be snapping them up.
So Flash is getting marginalized and it looks like eventually what it does will be replaced with HTML5 or other open-source standards. The question for users is, will it make any functional differnce? After all, Flash has had years to evolve as developers experimented, created, and squeezed every last drop of ability from the software. There have also been comparisons between the two that haven't been very favorable... to HTML5.
It's a good thing, then, that Flash isn't going away. Even though its use is declining, it's still massively present in Web video (just try doing anything on Hulu.com without a Flash plug-in). There are advantages to the plug-in model, too: Adobe can roll out a Flash update across all platforms at once, whereas HTML5 support can vary from browser to browser. Not to mention Flash has tools for content owners to control and monetize their content, which hasn't yet emerged in HTML5.
So Flash isn't dying, but it is changing to make room for its open-source successors. Developers see Flash becoming a more specialized software package for a highly sophisticated user experience (think Intel's Museum of Me) while other standards take on more and more of the bulk of Web video and animation. With Edge, Adobe has wisely created the tools it needs to bring its cadre of Flash developers along for the ride. It's a refreshing—and arguably enlightened—position, and shows that not every format skirmish needs to become an all-out war.