Disadvantaged pupils in England and Wales are significantly behind other pupils by the time they take their GCSEs

By Nuffield Foundation

Welsh schools have a wider disadvantage gap than English schools, but both nations have made only modest progress in closing this gap during the last decade. This is according to a new report from the Education Policy Institute (EPI) funded by the Nuffield Foundation.

The ‘disadvantage gap’ is a leading measure of social mobility and an indicator of policymakers’ progress in reducing inequalities in education. Pupils are classed as ‘disadvantaged’ if they were eligible for free school meals in the past six years, and ‘persistently disadvantaged’ if they were eligible for free school meals for 80% of their time in education. 

Comparing educational inequalities across England and Wales is challenging based on published statistics, due to different reforms to GCSEs and performance measures over time across the two nations. EPI make use of detailed administrative data for both nations and apply tried and tested methods for assessing the disadvantage gap over time, in the face of multiple reforms.  The research finds that whilst Wales suffers a greater disadvantage gap in GCSE results than England, progress in narrowing disadvantage gaps has been modest for each nation over the last decade. 

Key findings

Figures on the impact of educational inequality for 2019 reveal Wales’ disadvantage gap to stand at 22-23 months, with England’s narrower at 18 months. Corresponding figures from 2011 show slow progress in narrowing these gaps, with figures only down from disadvantage gaps of 24 months in Wales and 20 months in England in 2011. 

Persistently disadvantaged pupils experienced still larger disadvantage gaps, with those in England suffering a persistent disadvantage gap of 23 months and those in Wales experiencing 29 months. With little sign of these persistent disadvantage gaps closing, alongside an expectation of a growing number of pupils in this category, improving educational outcomes for the persistently disadvantaged should be prioritised by policymakers. 

While it’s clear that Welsh schools in deprived areas suffer greater disadvantage gaps than their English counterparts, the report finds no evidence of this difference being a result of policy divergences between the two nations over the last decade.  

Although reasons for Wales’ higher disadvantage gap predate 2010, the Welsh local authorities with the highest disadvantage gaps should still seek best practice from those deprived areas of England faring better with comparable demographics. There are many comparable areas of England with similar levels of persistent poverty, but lower disadvantage gaps, such as Barnsley, Gateshead, Portsmouth, Salford, Stockton-on-Tees and Rotherham. 

To improve social mobility across each nation, EPI encourages a renewed focus to be targeted at narrowing disadvantage gaps within schools. 

Recommendations

  • Local authorities in Wales need to learn more from deprived areas of England with similar demographics, and which have managed to achieve smaller disadvantage gaps over time.  
  • Targeted extra funding at more deprived schools has been shown to be effective at narrowing the disadvantage gap. More funding should be specifically targeted at pupils experiencing persistent disadvantage in both nations.
  • A high focus on teacher quality is crucial, through policies designed to improve recruitment and retention of high-quality teachers in more deprived areas, such as salary supplements, and access to high-quality professional development.  
  • One-to-one and small group tutoring has been shown to be highly effective  
  • The most successful charter schools focus on frequent teacher feedback, the use of data to guide instruction, high-dosage tutoring, increased instructional time, and maintain a culture of high expectations.  
  • With schools unlikely to be able to close disadvantage gaps sufficiently on their own, a wider focus on child poverty, other parts of the education system, such as the early years, and other public services, such as children’s services is required.  

Dr Luke Sibieta, Research Fellow at EPI, said: “The gap in education outcomes between poor children and the rest is far too wide in both England and Wales. But the results for Wales are particularly concerning – with poor children almost 2 years behind on average by the time they take their GCSEs, compared with 18 months in England. And children who are long-term poor in Wales are almost 2 and a half years behind, compared with just under 2 years in England. Policymakers in both countries need to re-double their attempts to give poorer children a better chance in life, and Welsh policy makers need to consider if there are lessons which they can learn from the best performing areas of England, where gaps are far lower. In both countries, a range of measures is necessary including targeting more funding at schools with high levels of disadvantage, improving teacher quality in deprived areas and more one to one and small group tuition.” 

Rt Hon David Laws, Executive Chairman of EPI, said: “This report highlights the huge attainment gaps in both Wales and England, gaps that have almost certainly widened since the COVID crisis hit. This new research also highlights how much bigger the gaps are in Wales, which should trigger a debate in Wales as to why these outcomes are so disappointing and what more can be done to turn things around. Across the UK, policymakers need to re-double their efforts to give poor children a better chance in life.” 

Related project


Explore our projects

New

Education | 2025 - 2026

Investigating performance across Key Stage 2 maths topics

View project
Teacher with secondary pupils

Education | 2024 - 2028

Teaching improvement through data and evaluation (TIDE)

View project
New

Welfare | 2024 - 2027

Gypsy, Roma, Traveller Youth: mitigating exclusions using the digital?

View project
A front view of a father and his two children. He is carrying his young son in his arms and his daughter is riding her scooter along the footpath as he pushes his son's scooter along the way.
New

Justice | Welfare | 2024 - 2026

Challenging justice inequalities with children in conflict with the law 

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Long-term outcomes of high-achieving disadvantaged children

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Exploring academic selection and grammar schools in Northern Ireland

View project
Young girl using an iPad at home
New

Education | 2024 - 2024

Early years digital media literacy review

View project

Education | 2024 - 2026

Pupil school mobility: types, pathways and implications for education

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Can digital parenting interventions benefit early language development?

View project
Little girls in primary school uniform

Education | 2024 - 2026

Developing a classroom intervention to improve conversation skills

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Vocabulary for Reading: the power of words

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Spending across different stages of education

View project
Young girl using an iPad at home
New

Education | 2024 - 2024

Early years digital media literacy review

View project
A front view of a father and his two children. He is carrying his young son in his arms and his daughter is riding her scooter along the footpath as he pushes his son's scooter along the way.
New

Justice | Welfare | 2024 - 2026

Challenging justice inequalities with children in conflict with the law 

View project

Education | 2024 - 2026

Pupil school mobility: types, pathways and implications for education

View project
Teacher with secondary pupils

Education | 2024 - 2028

Teaching improvement through data and evaluation (TIDE)

View project
Secondary school music teacher smiles at students working together at a keyboard.
New

Education | 2024 - 2025

Teacher recruitment & retention challenges in England

View project
New

Welfare | 2024 - 2027

Gypsy, Roma, Traveller Youth: mitigating exclusions using the digital?

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

A feasibility and pilot trial of the Early Years Library

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Can digital parenting interventions benefit early language development?

View project
New

Education | 2025 - 2026

Investigating performance across Key Stage 2 maths topics

View project
three women walking along street laughing and smiling
New

Welfare | 2023 - 2025

Revealing social capital

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Vocabulary for Reading: the power of words

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Spending across different stages of education

View project
In progress

Education | 2023 - 2024

Artificial intelligence and education

View project
Two little boys and a little girl, all wearing primary school uniform, work together to solve a puzzle in their classroom.
In progress

Education | 2023 - 2025

What has ‘Free School Meals’ measured and what are the implications?

View project
Teenager hugging their mother
In progress

Welfare | 2023 - 2026

The long-term effects of being a young carer

View project
Father and daughter having fun at home
In progress

Education | 2023 - 2024

Optimisation and feasibility of Triple P parenting programme for remote delivery

View project
Early years professionals playing with children
In progress

Education | 2022 - 2024

Understanding the take-up of early education entitlements

View project
Primary school children using a microscope during a lesson outside at school
In progress

Education | 2023 - 2025

Purposeful and effective practical work in primary school science

View project
Male and female apprentices looking at car engine
In progress

Education | 2022 - 2025

Work or study? Gender and the transition from school to work

View project
Mother, father, son and daughter standing in front of their house
In progress

Welfare | 2023 - 2025

A regional regeneration index to track socioeconomic ‘Levelling Up’

View project
Two teenage male pupils study a science lesson as part of their post-16 options
In progress

Education | 2019 - 2024

Post-16 pathways: the role of peers, family background and expectations

View project
Teacher helping primary school girl with schoolwork in the classroom
In progress

Education | 2023 - 2024

The impact of additional learning needs identification in Wales

View project
Teenage sixth form students taking notes in a lesson
In progress

Education | 2022 - 2024

Comparing inequality and outcomes across post-16 education in the UK

View project
Children walking with their parents in the countryside
In progress

Welfare | 2022 - 2024

Children’s lives in changing places

View project
Young girl using an iPad at home
New

Education | 2024 - 2024

Early years digital media literacy review

View project
Secondary school music teacher smiles at students working together at a keyboard.
New

Education | 2024 - 2025

Teacher recruitment & retention challenges in England

View project
New

Welfare | 2024 - 2027

Gypsy, Roma, Traveller Youth: mitigating exclusions using the digital?

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

A feasibility and pilot trial of the Early Years Library

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Can digital parenting interventions benefit early language development?

View project
New

Education | 2025 - 2026

Investigating performance across Key Stage 2 maths topics

View project
three women walking along street laughing and smiling
New

Welfare | 2023 - 2025

Revealing social capital

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Vocabulary for Reading: the power of words

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Spending across different stages of education

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Exploring academic selection and grammar schools in Northern Ireland

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Long-term outcomes of high-achieving disadvantaged children

View project
Older woman using a tablet to make a video call
New

Welfare | 2023 - 2025

Remote osteoarthritis peer-mentorship for socioeconomically underserved people

View project
Reception class children using a parachute in a PE lesson
Reported

Education | 2022 - 2023

A movement and story-telling intervention for reception children

View project
Grandparents having fun outdoors with their granddaughter, who is eating an apple and laughing: Understanding family and community vulnerabilities in transition to net zero
Reported

Welfare | 2021 - 2023

Understanding family and community vulnerabilities in transition to net zero

View project
Father and son using laptop at home
Reported

Welfare | 2021 - 2024

Developing a minimum digital living standard for households with children

View project
Side view of two female high school students in classroom working on laptops social distancing. Student in foreground is in focus and student in background is blurred
Reported

Education | 2021 - 2022

COVID-19 and disadvantage gaps in England 2020 and 2021

View project
Close up of a young girl and her father wearing protective face masks during the COVID-19 pandemic outside.
Reported

Welfare | 2021 - 2023

The Economy 2030 Inquiry: navigating a decade of change

View project
Young boy draws and plays with a globe as part of nursery education
Reported

Education | 2020 - 2022

COVID-19 and childcare: local impacts across England

View project
Reported

Education | 2020 - 2022

Ethical principles underpinning co-production with young people

View project
Reported

Education | 2020 - 2021

COVID-19 mitigation measures: education provision and access to special schools

View project
Young-boy-uses-tablet-with-mother-for-maths-learning-Can-maths-apps-add-value-to-learning-PROJ
Reported

Education | 2020 - 2022

Can maths apps add value to learning?

View project
Male secondary school student working at home on laptop
Reported

Education | 2020 - 2021

The impact of COVID-19 on mainstream schools in England

View project
Teenage-girl-looks-at-smartphone-next-to-laptop-Growing-up-under-COVID-19-PROJ
Reported

Education | Welfare | 2020 - 2022

Growing up under COVID-19

View project
Top view of librarian sitting with five multiethnic children on floor. Teacher reading book to cute girls and young boys at school.
Reported

Education | 2020 - 2022

Comparisons of cognitive skills and educational attainment across the UK

View project
Search projects

We improve people’s lives by funding research that informs social policy, primarily in Education, Welfare and Justice. We also fund student programmes that give young people skills and confidence in science and research.

We offer our grant-holders the freedom to frame questions and enable new thinking. Our research must stand up to rigorous academic scrutiny, but we understand that to be successful in effecting change, it also needs to be relevant to people’s experience.

Profile