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Tokyo Electric Power Co
The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company, is facing threats of nationalisation. Photograph: Reuters
The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company, is facing threats of nationalisation. Photograph: Reuters

Tokyo Electric Power Company turns toxic

This article is more than 13 years old
Ministers are reportedly thinking of nationalising Tepco to prevent loss of confidence on world markets

As engineers continue to fight to prevent catastrophe at the tsunami-hit Fukushima nuclear plant, executives at its controversial operating company are also struggling to prevent a financial meltdown.

Shares in the Tokyo Electric Power Company plunged again on the Nikkei stock index yesterday. They fell 18% to a 60-year low of ¥362 and the company said it was delaying publication of its annual earnings report due to the crisis.

In Tokyo, the air is thick with talk that Tepco might have to be nationalised as losses mount and investors brace themselves for compensation claims running into billions.

Government intervention could leave investors out of pocket, sparking outrage in a country where capital has been king since the end of the second world war.

The omens aren't looking good as the human and environmental tragedy grows worse by the day and the Japanese lose faith in their nuclear industry.

Japanese media report that ministers are considering nationalisation to prevent a dramatic loss of investor confidence on world markets. The government and the company have played down that idea, but what happens next depends on how quickly the plant can be made safe and confidence restored.

Tepco faces huge costs for replacement power, the construction of new generation capacity to replace its damaged plants and the decommissioning of at least four and possibly all six reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi facility. Factor in unquantified damages to local residents and businesses affected by radiation leaks, not to mention the possibility of lawsuits rumbling in the background, no wonder investors are dumping the shares.

Yusuke Ueda, an analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said Tepco could face compensation charges of more than ¥10tn (£74bn) if the crisis runs for more than two years.

The price of insuring Tepco debt against default has soared as more investors bet the company will struggle to pay creditors. "I think the company will survive, but … financial aid … will be necessary," said Koichi Ogawa at Daiwa SB Investments. "If Tepco were to default on its debt that would be a worry to the financial system so I don't think that's going to happen," he adds.

Tepco is being supported by the Bank of Japan and other major Japanese banks. Three institutions – Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Mizuho Financial and Mitsubishi – are lending ¥1.9tr to help it deal with the crisis.

But question marks over whether the group can meet the costs of the disaster without outside help have prompted credit rating downgrades by Moody's and Standard & Poor's. Moody's said: "Tepco will remain highly leveraged and unprofitable for an extended period of time and will face substantial risk regarding nuclear liability."

S&P said: "Tepco will face significant deterioration in its operating and free cash flows over the next couple of years as a result of higher operating costs as it moves to oil and LNG [liquefied natural gas]."

According to a note from UFJ Morgan Stanley: "If we think about all the people and businesses affected by the incident, and the compensation that would have to be paid, there is no way shareholders can be fully protected."

BP faced a similar nightmare after the Gulf of Mexico oil spill debacle, but earns around $20bn(£12bn) in a good year and had a portfolio of valuable businesses to sell to meet a bill of $30bn. Not so Tepco, which made a profit last year of £1bn and has few assets to put on the auction block.

Then there is the reputational damage, which is much harder quantify in monetary terms.

The Japanese government has lambasted Tepco for its handling of the nuclear disaster. The utility has sown anxiety among the public by giving confusing radiation readings, being slow to admit to the seriousness of the situation and plodding in its response. Many Japanese people no longer trust what its officials say.

Recent US embassy cables released by the Wikileaks website revealed deep unease about all the different nuclear power companies operating in Japan, of which Tepco is the largest.

Taro Kono, an MP, claimed in talks with US diplomats that these firms were "hiding the costs and safety problems associated with nuclear energy."

Although Tepco wasn't named, a report a few years ago found that Tepco falsified nuclear safety data at least 200 times between 2000 and 2007.

Not surprisingly, Japanese anti-nuclear campaigners have Tepco in their sights and are demanding the government take decisive action to shut it down and mothball its plants.

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