The expectation and tension grew exponentially in the build up to Leicester City’s visit to Old Trafford to play Manchester United on Sunday.
Tottenham Hotspur, the only team still capable of upsetting the Leicester apple cart, only managed to draw against bottom half West Brom last Monday, so Leicester entered the match at Old Trafford needing just three points from its last three games to clinch the Premier League title and to become the most unlikely of champions.
A 1-1 draw on Sunday means that we all have to wait at least another 24 hours before witnessing an unprecedented celebration by fans of the “Foxes.”
There were the expected moments of controversy – a couple of penalty calls not given by the referee; a loose elbow or two thrown with intent; a red card late in the match for Leicester midfielder Danny Drinkwater which means he will miss next weekend’s home match against Everton.
Failing to grab all three points will have disappointed many who tuned in around the globe to see Leicester crowned champions but in the larger picture, a point was a good result for the champions-in-waiting.
Although Manchester United fans have suffered through a disappointing Premier League season home form has only been bested by ……Leicester.
Sunday’s result means that Spurs now have no room for error in its effort to overtake Leicester. They must win all three of their remaining matches against Chelsea (away) on Monday, followed by a home game against Southampton next Sunday and finally a visit to St James’ Park Newcastle with the home side possibly facing a must-win situation to stay in the Premier League.
On the last day of the season, Leicester travels to Stamford Bridge to play Chelsea.
Leicester’s healthy point lead combined with Spurs’ schedule has justifiably led to a “when” rather than “if” feeling as the Premier League 2015/16 season draws to a close.
There has also been an avalanche of articles based on quotes from UK bookmakers about how much they will lose should Leicester win the Premier League.
A quick Google inquiry “Bookies loss Leicester Premier League champions” produces a range of numbers – anything from $3M to a high of $75M – and all from industry “insiders.”
The 10 things bookies thought were more likely than Leicester winning the Premier League. https://t.co/s43DNVvsnZ pic.twitter.com/5Y3MadKxpB
— BBC Newsbeat (@BBCNewsbeat) May 1, 2016
That is enough to make anyone question the validity of the supposed loss. When you consider that Leicester started off as 5,000-1 at the start of the season and even though there was a fluctuation the 5,000-1 price was still on offer by some bookmakers as late as the start of October.
As the season progresses and Leicester maintained its form and failed to wilt as almost everyone expected the odds dropped dramatically and by January 2016, 12-1 was on offer. The gambling industry in the UK has gone to great lengths to publicize how much money they stand to lose and that alone should raise suspicion.
Bookies again claiming they will lose a fortune on a Leicester title win: like the Queen moaning about the size of her window cleaning bill.
— Brendan McGinty (@brendanjmcginty) May 1, 2016
Both the comments and projected losses and lacked detail and that alone allows for individual interpretation.
Take the supposed loss of $75M as an example. Is that the payout to bettors holding Leicester slips or is that the net result after accounting for the losing bets placed on the other 19 Premier League teams?
The first is possible but highly unlikely – the second, if it is true, should be enough to have every odds maker in the UK fired.
The reality is that in order to measure any loss or profit on a series of transactions you have to measure what is included and what is excluded and no one in their right mind is going to go to that length.
Bookmakers don’t just offer odds on Premier League winners and teams likely to get relegated but there is a myriad of Premier League bets made on every one of the 380 games and by the end of the season Leicester will have been involved in 38 of them.
Cut to the bottom line and the bookies in the UK have no idea what Leicester might cost them on account of how interwoven betting activity actually is.
What the bookies do know is a great marketing opportunity. The phenomenon of Leicester - even if they don’t actually win the Premier League – is now fixed in peoples’ minds and for years to come, the bookies are going to make a gigantic amount of money from punters placing money on long-shots just because of what the Foxes did in 2015/16.
Bookies always come out on top.
@mbeisen I bet the bookies clean up next season: enticingly longish odds on everyone, talk their losses via Leicester up, overround book
— Ewan Birney (@ewanbirney) May 1, 2016
