A Snap Judgment
We took the draft's top QB prospects (Carson Wentz, Jared Goff) and put them under the microscope against their peers (Paxton Lynch, Connor Cook and Christian Hackenberg) in six telling metrics. Here's what we found -- and who won the most categories.
Reps under center
Since 2011, a large shift is happening in how college offenses line up: The number of plays under center in college football has gone down 43 percent, while shotgun plays have gone up 54.6 percent. Teams such as Baylor have led a trend where quarterbacks are expected to start in the shotgun and throw the deep ball. In the NFL, the use of the shotgun is increasing, but not to the degree we are seeing in college. Last season, 38.2 percent of NFL snaps came from under center, as opposed to 18 percent in NCAA games. Here's how each quarterback lined up last season:
CARSON WENTZ
Pct. of snaps under center:
27%
67.3%, 4 TD, 0 INT, 62 dropbacks
CONNOR COOK
Pct. of snaps under center:
22%
45.5%, 4 TD, 1 INT, 95 dropbacks
CHRISTIAN HACKENBERG
Pct. of snaps under center:
19%
50.7%, 1 TD, 0 INT, 78 dropbacks
PAXTON LYNCH
Pct. of snaps under center:
3%
53.3%, 3 TD, 0 INT, 15 dropbacks
JARED GOFF
Pct. of snaps under center:
0%
0%, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 dropback
PCT. OF SNAPS
PCT. OF SNAPS IN
UNDER CENTER
SHOTGUN/PISTOL
27%
73%
CARSON WENTZ
Under center:
67.3%, 4 TD, 0 INT,
7.6 yds./att., 62 dropbacks
22%
78%
CONNOR COOK
45.5%, 4 TD, 1 INT,
6.4 yds./att., 95 dropbacks
19%
81%
CHRISTIAN
HACKENBERG
50.7%, 1 TD, 0 INT,
7.2 yds./att., 78 dropbacks
3%
97%
PAXTON LYNCH
53.3%, 3 TD, 0 INT,
12 yds./att., 15 dropbacks
0%
100%
JARED GOFF
0%, 0 TD, 0 INT,
0 yds./att., 1 dropback
Of the six, Wentz was under center the most (27 percent) and completed better than 67 percent of his passes. Goff took just one snap from that formation in his college career (a 5-yard attempt on third down vs. Washington last season that fell incomplete). Can they adjust to that style of play in a league where it happens nearly 4 out of 10 offensive snaps? That's what NFL teams will have to evaluate.
True Accuracy
Standardized completion percentage accounts for the distance of a quarterback's passes and eliminates drops and throwaways to better gauge a player's true accuracy. It gives players credit for completing a short screen pass, but the credit they receive depends on how often an average quarterback throws that pass. Although not originally designed to predict NFL success, standardized completion percentage is a good indicator of future NFL accuracy. Russell Wilson (81.7 percent), Robert Griffin III (79.7), Teddy Bridgewater (78.3) and Andrew Luck (75.2) had some of the top standardized completion percentages in their final year of college, while Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, Ryan Tannehill and Ryan Lindley ranked near the bottom (all less than 72 percent).
72.4%
71.8%
71.4%
63.1%
57.9%
80
LYNCH
Similar: Marcus Mariota (73.3)
Blake Bortles (73.1)
Nick Foles (72.7)
72.4
75
WENTZ
71.8
Landry Jones (72.0)
GOFF
Geno Smith (71.5)
71.4
Brock Osweiler (71.4)
70
Ryan Tannehill (71.5)
Derek Carr (70.6)
65
COOK
63.1
Logan Thomas (63.1)
Trevor Siemian (62.0)
60
HACKENBERG
57.9
Keith Wenning (61.0)
55
This year's class doesn't challenge the very best numbers in this category. Wentz and Goff are neck and neck on this, but Lynch eclipses both. While scouts have questioned how often Lynch stuck to short passes -- he threw 42 percent of passes less than 5 yards, compared to 36.4 percent for Goff and 29.3 for Wentz -- this stat accounts for the distance of his passes, and he still comes out on top.
Tough down/distance
On third- or fourth-down plays with at least 10 yards to go for a first down, quarterbacks are put in the unenviable position of essentially having to pass when the defense knows it's coming. In both college and the NFL, the success rate tends to be low. The question here is, who has the most success at moving the chains and getting a first down?
42.9
40
33.3
27.6
21.4
WENTZ
GOFF
COOK
LYNCH
HACKENBERG
57.1 comp%,
60 comp%,
45.8 comp%,
51.7 comp%,
47.6 comp%,
4 TD, 1 INT
1 TD, 1 INT
2 TD, 1 INT
1 TD, 0 INT
1 TD, 4 INT
Wentz had a slightly higher first-down rate, but this was a very, very small sample size (8-of-14 passing for six first downs). And while Goff was solid and had the highest completion percentage and an impressive 9.37 yards per attempt, it's hard to argue with the success Wentz had throwing the ball deep (four touchdowns). Give him this one.
Handling pressure
When the quarterback is sacked, under duress or hit, it's defined as a QB pressure. Goff was pressured 24 percent of the time and was sacked 26 times. Wentz, on the other hand, was rarely taken down by FCS defenders (eight sacks) and was pressured on 25.8 percent of dropbacks. But which quarterback showed the best ability to produce positive yardage when pressured?
7.17
5.95
5.10
3.74
2.63
7.17
5.95
5.1
3.74
2.63
yards/att.
GOFF
LYNCH
COOK
HACKENBERG
WENTZ
45.9 comp%,
46.7 comp%,
33.8 comp%,
27.4 comp%,
28.9 comp%,
7 TD, 3 INT
3 TD, 0 INT
1 TD, 2 INT
1 TD, 2 INT
1 TD, 1 INT
Oof, not a good look for Wentz. In the 51 pressured dropbacks where he wasn't sacked, he completed just 11 passes for 100 yards. And Goff has the most reps against pressure of the group (124 dropbacks), with the best yards per attempt and most touchdowns. Score another one for the Cal Bear.
Beating blitzes
Whereas any net gain against pressure is good, quarterbacks can inflict serious damage by properly reading the blitz (any dropback with five or more pass rushers). In these moments, it's up to the quarterback to find and exploit holes in the secondary for a score. Which prospect has the best ability to produce touchdown passes in these situations?
GOFF
131 attempts
15.3%
20 TDs
LYNCH
81 attempts
13.6%
11 TDs
WENTZ
66 attempts
10.6%
7 TDs
COOK
134 attempts
7.5%
10 TDs
HACKENBERG
114 attempts
4.4%
5 TDs
All of these quarterbacks had some level of success against the blitz, as they all had positive TD-to-INT ratios. Lynch was very precise (67.9 completion rate, just one interception), but Goff is the most likely to deliver a big play. So he gets the nod.
Sharp in red zone
Another measure of a quarterback is how well they protect the ball and make smart decisions in the red zone, where mistakes are especially costly. The worst outcome: an off-target pass, classified as anything over, wide of or under the intended receiver. For this comparison, let's look at anything not fitting that criteria, which would be a pass that's on target.
Although three of Wentz's red zone attempts were dropped, he sailed five of them over head of his target. This looks be an area where some development is needed for the North Dakota State star. For Goff, the numbers are impressive: 59.8 completion rate, 28 TDs, zero interceptions.
Final tally
Goff
3
2
Wentz
Lynch
1
Who looks best under the harsh microscope of QB metrics? It's Goff. While Wentz has seen more time under center and converts well on tough downs and distances, Goff is on target more often with the defense bearing down on him. If the Rams take him first in the draft on Thursday, they will hope he can do the same against NFL defenses.
Additional reporting by ESPN's Sharon Katz. Wentz statistics compiled by ESPN Stats & Information.
