9 Way Too Early Tour de France Predictions

The 2016 Tour de France opens with five mostly flat stages. With no prologue, the race dives straight into the action, and you can expect to see the sprinters strutting their stuff. Mark Cavendish has 26 stage victories to his credit and a new team, Dimension Data, at his side this year to help him increase his stage win tally. Cavendish faces ferocious challenges, though, from Marcel Kittel (Ettix—Quick-Step), who clinched four stage victories in 2014, and André Greipel (Lotto-Soudal), who claimed four stages in 2015. 

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There are few things more exciting in cycling than a Grand Tour sprint finish, especially one filled with sprinters eager to claim a turn in the yellow jersey. Get ready for a fast, furious and fabulous first week.

For the first three stages, the Tour runs along France’s northern coast in view of the English Channel. We aren’t great at predicting weather, but we can confidently say that there will be wind—it’s not called a windswept coast for nothing. The first two stages look especially good for crosswinds – expect to see a battle for position among the yellow jersey contenders and their teammates. During last year’s race, Nairo Quintana (Movistar) got caught behind a split in the wind during stage 2, and it cost him the Tour. 

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Wind-driven battles for position increase the risk of crashes. All 189 riders can’t ride at the front at the same time, but it won’t stop them from trying. It means that crashes in these opening stages are all but inevitable.

Known for his crazy feats of bike handling, Peter Sagan (Tinkoff) won the 2015 UCI Road World Championship title with a stylish solo attack. The Slovakian racer thrives on fast racing and short, finishing climbs. This year’s stage 2 ends on the Côte de la Glacerie in Cherbourg, and it has Sagan’s name written all over it. Maybe he’ll even give us a wheelie to celebrate.

The Tour de France is a bike race, yes, and that’s why we watch it. But it’s also known for its scenery – oh so many castles! – and the route traditionally visits sites of historical and cultural significance. Tune into the Tour, and you’ll inevitably learn some history en route, especially as the announcers share fun local facts and historical tidbits to help fill the hours and hours of live commentary during each stage.

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For example, the opening stage of this year’s Tour starts in the shadow of the picturesque Mont St. Michel and finishes at Utah Beach, the site of the D-Day landings during World War II. 

The Tour de France first visited the Col du Tourmalet in 1910. It was an era when men were men, mountain passes were dirt roads and Tour stages were extremely long. Faced with a massive, unknown climb in 1910, Tour riders protested that the Col du Tourmalet was too long, too difficult, and also, that there were bears. 

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Fortunately, no one was eaten by bears in 1910, and you can rest assured that in 2016, riders will again contest a bear-free stage, though we can’t promise that they will escape hazards related to the hordes of drunks that line the climb.

The stage runs from Pau to Bagnères-de-Luchon, includes four major climbs and finishes with a screaming-fast descent. We’re calling it early, and we’re calling it now: A breakaway will win.

Mont Ventoux is a giant among mountains, towering high above the Provence countryside with its limestone face gleaming in the sun. The climb is notable for its length (21.8 kilometers) and its exposed, wind-blown slopes. This year, the Ventoux stage falls on July 14, which is the French national holiday known as Bastille Day. Look for French climbers such as Thibault Pinot and Pierre Rolland lighting it up on a quest to take home the podium flowers. 

Although Ventoux promises a glorious day of racing, it is not typically a deciding stage. On race day, it often turns out to be a dud—there are frequently headwinds on the climb and always an extraordinarily steep gradient, both of which make it difficult to split the field. Ventoux also comes relatively early in the 2016 Tour, so the top riders will hit it feeling fresh and frisky. Expect race favorites, such as Nairo Quintana, Chris Froome, Tejay van Garderen, Alberto Contador, and Richie Porte to reach the finish with minimal time gaps among them.

A Tour de France victory is frequently wrapped up long before the race’s final stages—especially after a hard mountain stage or a long time trial early in the Tour blows the race apart, ending everything but the crying. In 2012, for example, Sir Bradley Wiggins took over the race lead early in the three-week race, and with the help of the Team Sky juggernaut, he wore the yellow jersey all the way to Paris. 

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If you like suspense with your bike racing, which we certainly do, this year’s course looks promising. With two relatively short time trials and challenging but not especially decisive early mountain stages due to short, finishing climbs and descending finishes, it may well come down to the final two mountain stages. They are difficult, very difficult: Stage 19 features an uphill finish to Saint-Gervase Mont Blanc, and the Tour’s penultimate day, stage 20, includes the leg-breaking Col de Joux Plane. We predict a nail-biter of a finish, and maybe even a last-minute lead change.

Tejay van Garderen (BMC Racing) finished fifth at the Tour de France in 2014, but he was forced by illness to quit last year’s race, interrupting a strong season and a good chance of a high finish at the Tour. In a key Tour warm-up race, the Critérium du Dauphiné, he finished second last year. 

That’s usually a sign of good things to come, and the American plainly has a knack for stage racing. Van Garderen may wish there was more time trialing in this year’s race, but he’s ridden well in the mountains in previous Tours. He has a strong team to support him, and this year, we’re predicting that he’ll make the podium in Paris. 

The beauty of cycling rests somewhat with its unpredictability. A rider can be at the front all day in the breakaway, only to be caught in sight of the finish line. A crash or mechanical can derail a torrid run at the yellow jersey. Winners make their own luck, goes the saying, but in truth, even the best riders can fall victim to bad luck. 

The Tour de France is three weeks of two-wheeled mayhem. It’s impossible to predict, and that’s exactly why we show up to watch each day.