I’d like to tell you what’s going to occur in Iowa on Monday, just as I’d like to accurately forecast next week’s Super Bowl, or the Dow six months from now.
One way to anticipate the caucuses: Saturday’s Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll.
As far as Iowa bellwethers go it’s a pretty good one. In 2012, the poll had Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum running neck-and-neck it what turned out to be a 34-vote outcome. In 2008, the poll had Barack Obama seven points ahead of Hillary Clinton. She ended up in third place, eight points behind.
The final numbers before the 2016 vote:
- Trump 28%
- Cruz 23%
- Rubio 15%
- Carson 10%
And on the Democratic side:
- Clinton 45%
- Sanders 42%
- O’Malley 3%
We’ll see how accurate this poll turns out to be. Meanwhile, here are some other Iowa numbers to ponder.
121,501. That’s the number of votes in 2012’s GOP caucuses – a record turnout, though it’s only one-fifth the number of Iowa Republicans who could have turned out that night (not to mention about 35,000 fewer Republicans than the turnout for Iowa’s 2014 Senate and gubernatorial primaries).
The activist trash talk has Monday GOP caucus-goers somewhere in the range of 135,000 to 150,000. The Monmouth Polling Institute has it even higher – 170,000.
Simply put, the more voters the merrier for Trump, who does better than Texas Sen. Ted Cruz among first-time and walk-up voters. If the GOP turnout’s closer to 130,000, Monmouth has Trump and Cruz running even. But project the turnout toward 200,000 and Trump builds a double-digit lead.
-11,353. That’s the falloff in the number of registered Iowa Republicans from January 2015 (623,465) to January 2016 (612,112). Iowa Democrats also experience a decrease – at 584,111, it’s 19,358 less than a year ago.
The significance? If there’s a wave of support for Trump or Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, it has shown up at the registrar’s office. First-time voters accounted for only 34% of the Democratic sampling in that last Iowa poll; in 2008, they accounted for 60% of the 2008 sample.
Assuming that number stays low on Monday, this is comforting news for Hillary Clinton who, just on the eve of Groundhog Day, finds herself in the same of dealing with a more charismatic rival who’s tapping into angry populism and disaffected youth.
In case you’re curious, Iowa Democratic registration, on the eve of Obama’s big win in 2008, was up 9% from the previous year.
15%. Befitting the party of big(ger) government, the Democrats have a more complicated manner of caucusing.
Whereas Republicans make their preferences known through a simple, anonymous ballot, Democrats instead huddle in groups. Each candidate’s required to achieve a 15% “viability” threshold. If not, his or her caucus-goers have a half-hour to move on to another candidate or are counted as “uncommitted.”
What this means in the Democratic race is there are two contests: Clinton and Sanders turning out their respective bases; and then the competition to pick off the much smaller army supporting former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley.
If Sanders manages to grab O’Malley’s backers and goes on to win the caucuses, it would be a second Iowa indignity for Clinton. In 2008, Obama’s campaign cleverly made sure that John Edwards stayed at 15% in most caucusing rooms, thus keeping his votes from realigning with Hillary’s and assuring his second-place finish.
10,764. That’s the number of votes Jimmy Carter received back in 1976 – the most of any of the five other Democrats on the ballot, but still 3,744 votes behind “uncommitted.”
Carter, Obama and George W. Bush are the only three modern-caucus winners to ride an Iowa victory all the way to the Oval Office. Otherwise, it’s a record of futility – futility, like the state’s signature corn, as high as an elephant’s eye. Ronald Reagan was the GOP runner-up in 1980 (it didn’t help that he blew off a candidates’ debate). George H.W. Bush finished not second but third in 1988. In 1992, Bill Clinton took advantage of Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin’s presence on the ballot to shift his attention to New Hampshire.
For Republicans, there’s something of a quandary here. Since 1972, in non-incumbent GOP years, the Iowa caucuses have produced the party’s nominee only twice (Bush in 2000; Bob Dole in 1996) and only once delivered the presidency. For Republicans, New Hampshire has a better record: twice delivering the White House (Reagan and Bush 41); producing the nominee four of six times (John McCain in 2000 and Pat Buchanan in 1996 being the exceptions).
Speaking of numbers, here’s another one: six.
Six straight times, in the GOP’s last six non-incumbent primaries, Republicans have “split” the vote by choosing different winners in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Should the outcome produce a big win for Trump or Cruz, brace yourself for the call for changing the nominating process – shifting to a more nuanced state (Missouri, Ohio, Florida) or regional primaries.
Which takes us back to that first figure – 121,501: By close of business Monday, the approximate number of unsolicited suggestions for a better way of choosing a president.
You can find me on Twitter: @hooverwhalen
