Arrival of a fresh western disturbance across the border is switch on weather yet again over northwest India, with rain showers being forecast over the weekend and into the next.
The western disturbance has already started affecting the hilly regions in the region, while the plains are expected to come under weather from Saturday, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) bulletin said.
Satellite pictures indicated the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Jammu and Kashmir; and towards the south, over South Andaman Sea, South Bay of Bengal and South Arabian Sea.
IMD forecast
The IMD forecast said scattered rain or snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir.
It will be isolated over Himachal Pradesh and Uttrakhand, but increase thereafter.
Scattered rain or thundershowers have also been forecast for Punjab and isolated rain or thundershowers over north Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting has said that a follow-up western disturbance with better attributes could sail into the northwest around February 6.
This system would facilitate not just a second round of welcome rains for standing Rabi crops in the Northwest but also send in some piloting showers for east India and parts of the northeast.
This is even as international models see the possibility of isolated to scattered heavy showers along the Tamil Nadu coast and adjoining Kerala early next week.
The outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) values are forecast to be growingly negative (indicating presence of clouds) northward from equatorial Indian Ocean. Southwest Bay of Bengal, Southeast Arabian Sea and the waters surrounding Sri Lanka could slip under cloud cover in this manner and the resulting rains penetrate extreme peninsular India.
This is a likely extension of the active Northeast monsoon conditions prevailing over the Gulf of Thailand upstream of Bay of Bengal.
A few models suggested that the rains may propel north along the Tamil Nadu coast as also into the interior besides adjoining Kerala. But the IMD has suggested the possibility of only isolated rains in the region.
The latest IMD agri-met advisory bulletin said that during the last week, minimum temperatures have ranged between 5 to 10 deg Celsius over most parts of northwest India; 11 to 15 deg Celsius over central, east and northeastern States; and above 16 deg Celsius over the rest of the country.
They were above normal by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over parts of east India and extreme south peninsula.
In Faridkot division of Punjab, low temperature conditions have brought cold injury to standing Rabi crops. Farmers have been advised to apply frequent and light irrigation to protect them.
In Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur divisions, light irrigation may be applied to vegetables. Farmers in these states are advised to monitor the crops and arrange for smoke around the field to manage low temperature effect on crops.
Weather condition is favourable for sowing of summer groundnut in North Saurashtra region of Gujarat and potato in mid hills and lower regions in Himachal Pradesh.
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