Amateur weathermen saw cyclone Jal fizzling out

CHENNAI: Did cyclone Jal melt away too quickly for the Met office's calculations or did the state government react hastily in declaring a holiday for educational institutions on Monday?
Whatever be the case, amateur weather observers and ham radio enthusiasts had put out bulletins early on Sunday afternoon saying that a fizzled-out cyclone had crossed the coast -- nearly 10 hours before the time estimated by the Met department.But nobody paid them any heed. Isn't it time we also listened to independent weather experts?
Expecting to wake up to claps of thunder against darkened skies, Chennaiites found themselves staring at a bright, sunlit Monday morning instead. Cyclone Jal which meteorological scientists said would bring heavy rainfall and winds of speed up to 80 kmph had left without a trace, literally.
Using parameters such as wind speed, change in pressure, satellite data and even planetary science, the early predictions by private weathermen could have helped avoid a wasteful holiday, they say.
"I built my own radio receiver and now use it to get images from American satellites using a conversion software. Using the images along with factors such as wind direction, change in pressure and even animal behaviour, I can make accurate predictions about the weather. By 2pm on Sunday, I found that 95% of the storm had crossed over and there would be nothing to worry about on Monday. I sent out an email with these findings to a small group of friends," said V Rajesh Kannan, a ham radio operator who works for a software company. His interest in aerial photography drew him into the field of weather prediction about five years ago.
Other forecasters such as S Ramachandran, who have records of previous predictions such as monsoon failure in 2009 that have come true, place their faith in Indian astronomy. "A lot of people don't realise that this is a science. I found that on Saturday around 8am, the system had weakened," he said. Curiously, the Chennai centre of the Indian Meterological Department began putting up information about the cyclone on its website only on Friday evening, Ramachandran added.
"My reading is that a severe cyclonic depression will cause a lot of damage to life and property on the coast of Myanmar between November 13 and 14. I also foresee that Tamil Nadu will witness floods in May 2011. Normally, I use satellite data to back up my findings when the incident occurs," he pointed out.
According to G Vipin Shankar, regional manager of a shipping company who is also an avid ham radio enthusiast, such devices could be of "great use" in emergency situations. "In a scenario when mobile networks are jammed, ham radios can prove very useful. In Chennai, about 60 hams cover the entire area in terms of wireless capability. We have a repeater in Yercaud that can access locations in Bangalore along with stations in Puducherry and Yelagiri which are constantly checking in. They form the southern network. However, ham radios are not really part of any contingency or disaster management plan of the government," he said.
However, for their part, officials from the Meteorological department said it was not possible for them to keep track of various independent weather forecasts. "We use synoptic data gathered from our radar system, surface data and automatic weather stations to make weather forecasts. Our automatic weather station at Ennore proved to be very handy this time as it pinpointed the intensity and location of the system. We found that the weather system had crossed over the coast between North Chennai and Nellore around midnight. Our findings were correlated with the surface data also the next day," said Dr YEA Raj, deputy director general of meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre.
karthika.gopalakrishnan@timesgroup.com