Update on Cyclone Jal ... it's coming, Rain started in Chennai

Position :: 12.1 N , 83 E
Wind :: 130 kmph
Pressure :: 970 mb

JTWC, 2:30am IST
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062100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 83.8E. 
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (JAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 061706Z 37H TRMM MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT SPIRAL BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE SYSTEM 
CENTER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A 
WELL DEFINED LLCC IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM PASS. THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS 
FROM PGTW AND DEMS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC JAL IS SOUTH 
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH THE 
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SLIGHT PRESSURE ALONG ITS EASTERN 
FLANK, GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS HAS ALLOWED THE 
SYSTEM TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. TC 05B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC JAL WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR 
CHENNAI, INDIA WITHIN 24 HOURS AS A SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THEN 
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER SOUTHERN INDIA.  BY TAU 48, THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD CRITERIA (35 
KNOTS) FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN BASIN. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT 
CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS IT RE-EMERGES IN THE 
NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AFTER TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL 
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 20 FEET.

JTWC projection
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IMD warning, 5:30am IST
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The Severe cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ remained practically stationary and lay centered at 0230 hrs IST of today, the 7th November 2010, over southwest Bay of Bengal near lat.11.00N and long. 84.00E about 400 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 450 km southeast of Chennai and 600 km southeast of Nellore. It would intensify further, move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by today, the 7th November 2010 night.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 12 hours and thereafter the intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. Fairly widespread rain with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would occur over south coastal Tamilnadu during next 48 hours.
Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph would prevail along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 12 hours. It may increase upto 120-130 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions will be very rough to high, along and off these coasts becoming phenomenal at the time of landfall. 
Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhra pradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & Kanchipuram districts of Tamilnadu at the time of landfall.

Satellite, IR , 6am IST
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