Super cyclone threat looms over Diwali

HYDERABAD: The state stood on the brink of a major disaster what with the likelihood of a cyclone hitting the coast between Machilipatnam and Chennai in the next 3-4 days. The depression late in the evening lay centred in the Gulf of Thailand about 1,400 km from AP coast. Weather experts claimed that it has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone and perhaps a super cyclone.
If it turns into a severe cyclonic storm and then a super cyclone, it could leave a trail of massive destruction, experts warned.About 10,000 people died in the November 19, 1977 Diviseema cyclone, which rendered 70 lakh people homeless, while the killer cyclone that hit Orissa on October 29, 1999 had claimed 15,000 lives.
Christened ‘Jal,’ the centre of pressure of the cyclone had reached 992 hpa (hecta pascals) on Wednesday afternoon as per the numerical models worked out by the experts. “Once the pressure lessens, the intensity of the cyclone increases. With higher wind speed, the cyclonic storm gathers momentum,” said V S N Murthy, senior scientist at the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO). As the upper air cyclonic circulation is very intense, the chances of formation of a super cyclone are high, he said.
Once a severe cyclonic storm turns into a super cyclone, it would result in very heavy rains, accompanied by gusty winds of 210-260 km speed. “It can destroy pucca houses, uproot big trees and disrupt the entire communication network. It could also cause immense damage to ports and flatten coastal villages as tidal waves could rise up to a height of 14 metres,” an expert said.
O Bhanukumar, senior professor in Andhra University, said the cyclone threat is plausible as the low pressure radius is spread across 500 km in the sea. “While it weakened after it hit the land at the Gulf of Thailand, it has intensified again thanks to high sea surface temperature. During Oct-Nov, the AP coast is most vulnerable to cyclonic storms and they last for 5-6 days,” he reasoned.
A Jayaraman, director, National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, said once the wind speed crosses 60 km it could turn into a deep depression. “The sea gets very rough with gales of 120-150 km speed once it becomes a cyclone,” he said. Corroborating this, J V M Naidu of Cyclone Warning Centre, Visakhapatnam, said November has always been a month of cyclones in the state. “The vigorous north-east monsoon and depression are a deadly combination. With the north-south winds active, the likelihood of a cyclone hitting the coast cannot be ruled out,” he said. In the last one decade alone, the state has experienced 54 cyclones.