Immigration advocates miss McCain

100729_mccain_shinkle_218.jpg

When the prospects for a reform bill turned bleak earlier this year, immigration advocates told themselves to be patient. John McCain would be back, just as soon as he fended off a conservative primary challenge in Arizona next month.

But now, the onetime champion of comprehensive immigration reform appears nowhere near ready to rejoin Democrats in the fight, which left him alienated from his party and feeling abandoned by Hispanic voters during the bruising 2008 presidential election.

Not a chance, McCain said, when asked about the expectations of immigration advocates that he might once again take up the cause.

“Really? I’m certainly happy to hear that, since they have been unrelenting in their criticism of me,” McCain said sharply. “I will maintain my position that we secure the border first, which is a position that I’ve had for the last three years.”

His intent to hold firm underscores a growing divide between the parties that shows no sign of suddenly disappearing after McCain’s Aug. 24 primary election against a hard-line immigration opponent, former U.S. Rep. J.D. Hayworth — or the November midterm elections.

Advocates now acknowledge their expectations for McCain may have been misplaced.

“Those of us who are hoping for a post-primary redemption are losing hope,” said Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice, an immigrant advocacy group.

The political environment has grown so divisive that finding bipartisanship on the issue will require nothing less than a game-changing election. The Senate that returns in January will include no more than five of the 12 Republicans who last voted for comprehensive reform in 2007.

It’s almost hard to believe now, given the Hill’s partisan polarization, but 30 Republicans backed a reform bill in 2006.

Even South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, the only Republican willing to negotiate with Democrats on comprehensive reform, has hardened his stance. He announced this week that he might push a constitutional amendment revoking “birthright citizenship,” which grants citizenship to children born in this country to illegal immigrants.

The statement shocked advocates on the left, who view the idea as wrongheaded and even offensive.

And Graham told POLITICO that the Senate must pursue a border security bill before considering the comprehensive overhaul that he and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) drafted in the spring, which would have set benchmarks for border enforcement before a legalization program began. From a political standpoint, a trigger wouldn’t send the same message as a stand-alone border bill, he said.

“If you did this extra step, it would just make it so much easier to do comprehensive immigration reform,” Graham said. “It would make it a lot easier for a guy like me to engage in all the moving parts if we could show the public that we have done something on the border we have never done before.”

As long as McCain and Graham insist on the border-first approach, they may never find common ground with proponents of comprehensive immigration reform, who argue that border security must be coupled with a legalization program for 12 million illegal immigrants and moved in one bill.

McCain’s rhetoric has shifted so drastically in the past five years that advocates say they find him unrecognizable.

Once the lead Republican on a bill to bring illegal immigrants “out of the shadows,” McCain released a campaign ad in May calling for the completion of the “danged fence” on the Arizona border. The ad featured Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, a proponent of the now-suspended Arizona plan to require people to prove their residency, telling McCain that he was “one of us.”

And on Thursday, McCain told POLITICO that he wouldn’t even consider scaled-back measures, such as the DREAM Act, which would give undocumented students the right to become permanent residents, and AgJOBS, which aims to provide a stream of legal farm workers for the agriculture industry.

He said he won’t go for either measure until a border bill is passed and the border is certified as secure, which could take years.

“My sense is McCain is a bit miffed about not receiving as much support as he thought he would from Hispanics during the presidential election,” said Brent Wilkes, executive director of the League of United Latin American Citizens. “I would be surprised if he completely comes back and is the champion.”

Despite his key role in 2006 and 2007 on immigration reform, McCain won only 31 percent of the Hispanic vote in the presidential election, a drop from the 44 percent picked up by former President George W. Bush.

Sharry, a leading advocate who had worked closely with McCain, said the senator’s office severed communication with him after he was critical of McCain’s campaign. A spokeswoman for the senator said the office continues to meet with advocacy groups and that “there is no such ban on anyone.”

Without McCain, immigration advocates say their job will be much more difficult. Not only is he one in a shrinking group of Republican senators who has backed comprehensive reform, but McCain’s absence would also be a symbolic blow — and it would put a more conservative senator in charge of any bipartisan talks.

“His coming back to the table would be a very substantial move and something that could help break the logjam,” said Clarissa Martinez, director of immigration and national campaigns for the National Council of La Raza.

“The conversation has to begin with John McCain and Lindsey Graham,” added Angela Kelley, vice president for immigration policy and advocacy at the Center for American Progress. “They are the top-tier Republicans.”

Their hope now is that Republican presidential candidates and former operatives under Bush, a reform proponent, can convince GOP congressional leaders that the issue needs to be dealt with before 2012 — or that they could risk alienating the burgeoning Hispanic vote in the crucial swing states of New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona and Florida.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a front-runner for the nomination, has signaled quietly to Graham that Republicans must address immigration before the campaign heats up, according to several sources familiar with the conversation.

Graham’s push against birthright citizenship prompted this response on POLITICO’s Arena from Cesar Conda, a former domestic policy adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney: “If the Republican Party embraces ending birthright citizenship, then it will be assured losing Latino and ethnic voters — and presidential elections for the foreseeable future.”

Jason Rose, a Republican political consultant in Arizona, said there’s little chance of McCain backpedaling on immigration reform — even though such a major legislative accomplishment would cement his legacy.

“For John McCain to re-engage as he did before on the immigration issue will create a new political vernacular: It would be flip-flop flipper,” said Rose, who resigned from Hayworth’s Senate campaign in March after a contract dispute. “His constituents want the damn fence and they want it now, and he gets it.”

Edmundo Hidalgo, president and chief executive of Phoenix nonprofit Chicanos por la Causa, said that in previous years, McCain demonstrated a willingness to understand and work through issues affecting the Hispanic community. But this month, when Hidalgo met with McCain staff members to push for the DREAM Act, he heard only one refrain: Secure the border first.

“There is a disconnect with his priorities and our priorities,” said Hidalgo, whose group sued Arizona over its immigration law. “Although some of us may have a wishful sentiment to see the maverick, at this point, he is John McCain, the enforcer at the border. Those were fond memories.”