The prevailing pattern of excess rains in the West and Northwest India while being below par over East-central and Eastern parts is likely to continue into August, according to an update by a leading South Korean forecaster.
The Asia-Pacific Climate Centre (APCC) at Busan, South Korea, had correctly called the abysmally low precipitation ahead during this time last year that ultimately led to a country-wide drought.
EXCESS SHOWERS
APCC said in its latest monthly forecast that Rajasthan, Gujarat, the West Coast (including Konkan-Mumbai), northern parts of Central India and parts of West Uttar Pradesh would witness excess showers in August.
The deficient rain trend over East-central, East India and even Northeast India is likely to continue during this period.
These conditions would more or less be replicated in September as well, according to the APCC. Wet conditions would cover the entire western half of the country north to south, with likely extension into Karnataka and Tamil Nadu as well.
East-central and East India could once again end up in the red, with North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, parts of Vidarbha, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar likely getting affected.
October also would see the southern two-thirds of the country receiving above-normal rainfall, with only Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand being deprived of their usual quota of rain.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
Taken as a season, August-September-October would leave only parts of East-central India (around Orissa) in the deficient list, the APCC forecast said.
The bias to the west thus far during the season, and even going forward, is typically dictated by the influence of La Nina conditions on Indian monsoon. Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday that fairly widespread rainfall was reported from Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, South Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat during the 24 hours ending in the morning.
They were scattered over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, East Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh, Uttarkhand and Himachal Pradesh.
Satellite pictures revealed the presence of convective (rain-generating) clouds over parts of the Western Himalayas; Uttar Pradesh; North Rajasthan; Madhya Pradesh; Bihar; Jharkhand; Meghalaya; Coastal Orissa; Andhra Pradesh; North and South Arabian Sea; Central, South and Northwest Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.
‘LOW' OVER RAJASTHAN
Overnight's rain-driving low-pressure area over South Rajasthan and neighbouring regionsneighbourhood persisted on Tuesday. The offshore trough from Ssouth Gujarat coast to Karnataka coast too persisted.
Meanwhile, an upper air cyclonic circulation has sprung up in the Northwest Bay. This is likely to convert itself into a ‘low' by Wednesday, the IMD said.
A heavy rain alert issued by the IMD said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka during the next two days.
Isolated heavy rainfall has been warned also over Rajasthan, Gujarat and West Madhya Pradesh during the next 24 hours.
Updated forecast until Friday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the West Coast, the Western Himalayas, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Central and Northeast India.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers are likely over Gujarat and Rajasthan on Wednesday and may gradually lift thereafter.
The brewing ‘low' is expected to bring fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and Orissa while it would be scattered over iInterior Karnataka on Wednesday. The proceedings are expected to get a leg-up subsequently.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers have also been forecast over Northwest India outside Rajasthan during the next two days and lose in intensity thereafter. But Uttar Pradesh would continue to receive showers. The rains are expected to be scattered over remaining parts of East India.
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