Sector Update | 28 November 2019
Automobiles
Demand looking up for PVs/2Ws
CV decline arrested MoM | Tractors fails to live up to expectations
Our interactions with leading PV/2W/CV channel partners indicate positive demand trends
in 2Ws/PVs (v/s pre-festive period in 2019 and post-festive in 2018), stability in CVs but
pressure in Tractors. However, compared to Nov’18, wholesales are likely to decline across
OEMs (except RE) due to the timing difference (Diwali in Nov’18). Sentiment has improved
compared to the pre-festival period (before Oct-19), despite an MoM reduction in
discounts/offers. Wholesale volumes are estimated to decline ~9%/~12%/~10% YoY in
2Ws/PVs/Tractors. In CVs, volumes are expected to decline by ~11% in LCV and even higher
by ~47% in M&HCVs. Barring MHCVs, inventory correction has led to comfortable
inventory below 30 days across segments.
2Ws: Post-festive retails are likely to grow marginally YoY. Demand was positive in
rural (particularly motorcycles in entry/executive segment) due to strong monsoon
and harvesting season, but declined in urban areas. Majority of demand is driven by
the ongoing marriage season. Strong festival sales resulted in inventory of <30 days.
We expect wholesales to decline by ~4% for BJAUT (~13% decline for domestic 2W)
and ~9% YoY for TVSL. HMCL wholesales are estimated to decline ~12%, while RE
dispatches are expected to grow ~4% YoY to 68.5k units.
PVs: Post-festive indicators have been encouraging on inquiries, conversion and retails.
Discounts have reduced MoM but are higher YoY and at similar levels as Sep’19.
Volumes are expected to decline ~9% YoY for MSIL and ~14% YoY for M&M’s UV
(including pick-ups). TTMT’s PV volumes are estimated to come in ~38% lower YoY.
CVs: High discounts and offers failed to revive sales, though retail volumes appear to
have stabilized MoM. LCVs continue to do better than M&HCVs. Continued production
cuts by OEMs led to manageable inventory at 30-35 days. We expect CV wholesales to
decline by ~31% for TTMT (-49% for M&HCV) and ~33% YoY for AL (-51% for M&HCVs).
Tractors: Contrary to expectations, tractor demand failed to catch up post the weaker
Diwali season. This was also in contradiction with feedback on stronger rural demand
in other segment. We expect tractor volumes to decline by ~10% YoY for M&M and
~9% YoY for Escorts.
Trends in the demand environment for 2Ws and PVs are encouraging, particularly in
the run up to BS6 transition. This was critical for justifying the outperformance of the
auto sector. For the next 12-18 months, our preference remains for PVs over CVs/2Ws
as the segment is likely to (a) be least impacted by BS6 transition and (b) face less risk
of EVs and competition, in turn reflecting better earnings growth. Our top picks in
autos are MSIL, TTMT and MSS among large-caps, and AL and ENDU among mid-caps.
Mr. Rajiv Bajaj, MD Bajaj Auto
Ltd.,
“In the last quarter of this
financial year, from Jan-March,
there will be two factors at play,
largely. One is the base effect of
last year will catch up. That's
positive - it will make it look like
growth is back. The second is
BSVI is going to come. Now,
where will the penny fall
ultimately? I suspect it will be
more negative than positive”
Jinesh Gandhi - Research analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1524
Aanshul Agarawal - Research analyst
(Aanshul.Agarawal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 7193 4337
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
28 November 2019
1
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
Exhibit 1: Snapshot of volumes for November-19
YoY
MoM
YoY
Residual Residual FY20 YTD
(%)
MoM
FY20
Growth Monthly Monthly
Nov-19 Nov-18 chg Oct-19 (%) chg FY20 YTD FY19 YTD (%) chg estimate Gr. (%)
(%) Run rate Run rate
1,40,000 1,53,539 -8.8 1,53,435 -8.8 10,34,346 12,75,632 -18.9 14,75,441 -20.8
-24.8 1,10,274 1,29,293
63,610
33,000
810
6,500
23,300
37,750
8,250
19,000
27,250
5,500
5,000
71,050
38,255
1,143
5,703
25,949
54,990
16,172
21,785
37,957
11,462
5,571
-10.5 97,329
-13.7 43,888
-29.1
14.0
857
7,151
-34.6
-24.8
-5.5
-9.1
-48.7
-8.7
-2.8
-2.6
-2.7
-22.5
-20.0
5,70,368 6,46,316 -11.8 8,06,800
2,90,553 3,37,923 -14.0 4,18,118
8,591
44,321
12,831
43,408
-33.0
2.1
12,358
67,366
-14.1
-20.0
-35.8
1.0
-6.5
-35.1
-38.5
-29.2
-33.2
-48.9
-24.4
-5.6
-5.2
-5.2
-7.7
5.5
-31.9
-9.1
-12.9
-28.4
-4.3
26.9
-31.3
-19.2
-30.9
-41.3
-1.1
4.8
-38.1
-29.0
-42.8
-36.9
-41.9
-40.7
-3.1
-4.8
-5.8
-5.8
0.6
-17.7
12.9
-36.0
-3.7
-10.1
-24.8
3.9
-17.6
556.9
59,108
31,891
942
5,761
20,514
38,250
13,684
14,526
28,211
5,513
4,527
71,296
36,319
1,074
5,540
28,363
40,210
10,452
18,815
29,268
5,637
5,305
Company Sales
Maruti Suzuki
M&M
UV (incl. pick-ups)
LCV & M&HCV
Three-Wheelers
Tractors
Tata Motors
HCV's
LCV's
CV's
Cars
UV's
Hero MotoCorp
Bajaj Auto
Motorcycles
Total Two-
Wheelers
Three-Wheelers
Domestic
Exports
Ashok Leyland
TVS Motor
Eicher Motors
Royal Enfield
VECV
Escorts
Domestic
Exports
-10.2 45,433
-31.4 41,354
-49.0
8,488
-12.8 19,514
-28.2 28,002
-52.0
-10.2
7,100
6,252
2,26,903 2,52,154 -10.0 3,08,958
3,21,680 4,84,023 -33.5 4,74,682
83,619
1,47,800 -43.4 1,38,357
1,50,522 1,93,283 -22.1 2,08,627
2,34,141 3,41,083 -31.4 3,46,984
45,098
42,441
93,403
49,537
-51.7
-14.3
67,150
60,548
5,40,000 6,11,816 -11.7 5,99,248 -9.9
46,73,588 55,85,480 -16.3 68,38,606 -12.6
5,41,255 5,84,199
3,66,487 4,09,184
3,06,368 3,48,910
3,06,368 3,48,910
60,119
60,274
1,83,771 2,26,314
1,82,716 1,82,871
12,008
10,796
2,83,661 3,02,924
57,206
5,125
7,721
-10,918
-393
61,330
3,966
7,679
7,359
320
3,89,500 4,06,930 -4.3 4,63,208 -15.9 32,73,473 34,79,714 -5.9 47,39,420
3,25,500 3,46,544 -6.1 3,98,913 -18.4 27,91,280 29,36,035 -4.9 40,16,753
3,25,500 3,46,544 -6.1 3,98,913 -18.4 27,91,280 29,36,035 -4.9 40,16,753
64,000
60,386
6.0
6.9
-33.3
64,295
-0.5
4,82,193 5,43,679 -11.3 7,22,668
14,62,964 14,31,644
86,370
2.2
21,93,826
2,05,500 2,34,818 -12.5 2,78,776 -26.3 18,10,509 20,48,070 -11.6 25,45,594 -13.4
1,84,000 1,72,112
8,750
13,121
1,84,432 -0.2
9,074
-3.6
1,22,352 -29.4 1,34,403
2,91,000 3,19,965 -9.1 3,23,368 -10.0 24,23,395 27,35,040 -11.4 35,58,039
68,500
3,270
7,275
6,925
350
65,744
4,720
8,005
7,641
364
4.2
-30.7
-9.1
-9.4
-3.8
71,964
3,755
13,353
13,034
319
-4.8
-12.9
-45.5
-46.9
9.7
4,90,643 5,71,658 -14.2 7,19,468
31,726
61,429
58,870
2,559
45,723
66,678
65,000
1,678
-30.6
-7.9
-9.4
53
52,227
92,314
15,199
989
28 November 2019
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
Exhibit 2: Comparative Valuation
CMP
Auto OEM's
Bajaj Auto
Hero MotoCorp
TVS Motor
M&M
Maruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Eicher Motors
Escorts
Auto Ancillaries
Bharat Forge
Exide Industries
Amara Raja
BOSCH
Endurance Tech
Motherson Sumi
Mahindra CIE
CEAT
468
194
754
1,112
134
152
941
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
523
228
790
13,956
1,240
167
191
1,116
24.0
17.9
19.3
37.0
25.9
29.0
13.4
18.2
19.5
16.4
19.7
29.9
22.7
19.9
10.5
14.9
13.9
10.6
11.3
29.2
12.7
8.9
7.4
8.4
12.2
9.4
10.7
22.1
11.0
6.3
5.8
8.0
16.1
14.0
18.7
15.2
21.8
12.4
9.5
7.3
17.7
13.8
16.2
18.8
21.3
16.4
10.9
8.4
1.3
1.6
1.3
0.6
1.0
0.9
0.0
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.3
0.7
1.1
1.4
0.0
1.4
4.1
14.2
16.2
-0.1
16.3
14.9
-0.2
-2.9
Source: MOFSL
(INR)
3,196 Neutral
2,468 Neutral
488 Neutral
542
7,258
165
81
23,095
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Rating
TP
(INR)
3,169
2,707
434
654
7,950
195
88
20,500
656
P/E (x)
FY20E
17.8
16.1
34.3
16.9
40.8
-509.3
40.5
36.7
12.2
FY21E
16.8
14.2
26.6
14.8
28.3
14.1
24.2
27.0
11.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY20E
14.3
9.7
16.5
11.8
25.6
3.3
15.7
29.0
10.4
FY21E
12.4
8.7
13.6
10.5
17.4
2.9
12.1
21.8
9.3
RoE (%)
FY20E
22.5
23.1
18.7
11.4
10.7
-0.2
7.2
17.9
16.2
FY21E
21.3
24.3
20.8
10.5
14.3
6.4
12.1
20.8
15.2
Div Yield (%)
FY20E
2.0
3.6
0.8
1.8
1.1
0.0
2.8
0.5
0.5
FY21E
2.2
3.8
0.8
1.8
1.2
0.2
2.8
0.5
0.5
EPS CAGR
(%)
FY19-21E
7.2
1.3
13.9
-7.4
1.8
LTP
-30.2
2.4
3.5
644 Neutral
16,203 Neutral
28 November 2019
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Automobiles
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263; Website
www.motilaloswal.com.
CIN No.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.
Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate
Agent: CA0579 ;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management
Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and
IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL.
Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to
market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
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