Friday, December 10, 2010

Election 2010

FiveThirtyEight Forecasts Nevada Senate

Reid vs. Angle

Projected Election Results

Based on polling and demographic data, this is the prediction of how the state will vote on election day.

Chance Each Candidate Wins The Seat

The chance that each candidate will win based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment.

Recent Polls

The poll weight shows how much each poll has been factored into the FiveThirtyEight statistical model for this race.

Date Poll Sample Size 538 Poll Weight
Reid
Democrat
Angle
Republican
 Size of lead
Oct. 30-31 PPP 682 LV
1.06
 46 47
 
 
+1
Oct. 30 Fox News (Pulse Opinion Research) 1,000 LV
1.32
 45 48
 
 
+3
Oct. 25-30 YouGov 711 LV
0.83
 47 49
 
 
+2
Oct. 25-30 YouGov 1,000 RV
 
 48 45
 
+3
 
Oct. 25-27 Mason-Dixon 625 LV
0.81
 45 49
 
 
+4
Oct. 20-26 CNN / Opinion Research 773 LV
0.73
 45 49
 
 
+4
Oct. 20-26 CNN / Opinion Research 1,286 RV
 
 43 39
 
+4
 
Oct. 25 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 750 LV
0.42
 45 49
 
 
+4
Oct. 17 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 750 LV
0.19
 47 50
 
 
+3
Oct. 11-12 Mason-Dixon 625 LV
0.27
 45 47
 
 
+2
Oct. 7-11 Suffolk 500 LV
0.24
 46 43
 
+3
 
Oct. 9 Fox News (Pulse Opinion Research) 1,000 LV
0.12
 47 49
 
 
+2
Oct. 7-9 PPP 504 LV
0.16
 47 45
 
+2
 
Oct. 5 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 750 LV
0.05
 46 50
 
 
+4
Oct. 1-5 CNN / Opinion Research 789 LV
0.14
 40 42
 
 
+2
Oct. 1-5 CNN / Opinion Research 1,300 RV
 
 43 32
 
+11
 
Oct. 2 Fox News (Pulse Opinion Research) 1,000 LV
 
 46 49
 
 
+3
Sept. 28 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 750 LV
 
 48 47
 
+1
 
Sept. 20-22 Mason-Dixon 625 LV
0.07
 43 43
 
+0
 
Sept. 18 Fox News (Pulse Opinion Research) 1,000 LV
 
 45 46
 
 
+1
Sept. 10-14 CNN / Opinion Research 789 LV
 
 41 42
 
 
+1
Sept. 10-14 CNN / Opinion Research 1,295 RV
 
 42 34
 
+8
 
Sept. 13 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 750 LV
 
 48 48
 
+0
 
Sept. 10-12 Ipsos 600 RV
 
 46 38
 
+8
 
Sept. 10-12 Ipsos 463 LV
0.07
 46 44
 
+2
 
Sept. 11 Fox News (Pulse Opinion Research) 1,000 LV
 
 44 45
 
 
+1
Sept. 7-9 Mason-Dixon 625 LV
 
 46 44
 
+2
 
Sept. 1 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 750 LV
 
 50 47
 
+3
 
Aug. 23-25 Mason-Dixon 625 LV
 
 45 44
 
+1
 
Aug. 16 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 750 LV
 
 48 50
 
 
+2
Aug. 9-11 Mason-Dixon 625 LV
 
 46 44
 
+2
 
Aug. 4 We Ask America REP 1,070 RV 45.6 41.0
 
+4.6
 
July 30-Aug. 1 Ipsos 462 LV
 
 48 44
 
+4
 
July 30-Aug. 1 Ipsos 600 RV
 
 52 36
 
+16
 
July 26-28 Mason-Dixon 625 LV
 
 43 42
 
+1
 
July 27 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 750 LV
 
 45 43
 
+2
 
July 16-18 PPP 630 RV
 
 48 46
 
+2
 
July 12-14 Mason-Dixon 625 LV
 
 44 37
 
+7
 
July 12 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 750 LV
 
 43 46
 
 
+3
June 22 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 500 LV
 
 41 48
 
 
+7
June 9 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 500 LV
 
 39 50
 
 
+11
June 1-3 Mason-Dixon 625 LV
 
 41 44
 
 
+3
May 24-26 Mason-Dixon 625 LV
 
 42 39
 
+3
 
April 27 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 500 LV
 
 40 48
 
 
+8
March 31 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 500 LV
 
 40 51
 
 
+11
March 3 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 500 LV
 
 38 46
 
 
+8
Feb. 22-24 Mason-Dixon 625 LV
 
 42 44
 
 
+2
Feb. 2 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 500 LV
 
 40 44
 
 
+4
Jan. 11 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 500 LV
 
 40 44
 
 
+4
Jan. 5-7 Mason-Dixon 625 LV
 
 40 45
 
 
+5
Dec. 9, 2009 Rasmussen (Pulse Opinion Research) 500 LV
 
 43 47
 
 
+4
Show 26 More

Detailed Forecasts

The forecasts are built from statistical models, mostly based on recent polls and demographic data. More About FiveThirtyEight Methodology »

Stage of forecast
Reid
Democrat
Angle
Republican
 Size of lead
Weighted polling average 45.5 47.8
 
 
+2.3
Adjusted polling average 44.7 46.8
 
 
+2.1
538 regression 39.4 49.9
 
 
+10.6
538 snapshot 44.2 47.2
 
 
+3.0
Nov. 2 projection 47.2
± 4.0 pct. pt.
50.2
± 4.0 pct. pt.
 
 
+3.0
Percentage chance that candidate wins race 16.6% 83.4%