The waiting is over. Bring on Al Horford and the Hawks to start the season.
Expectations are fickle.
On one hand, fans should expect big things from the Raptors. After going 42-22 following the Rudy Gay trade, the Raptors finished with a franchise-high 48 wins en route to snagging third in the Eastern Conference. Whether you’re of the opinion that the Raptors are a middle of the pack playoff team, or something more, the basis is the same. The Raptors are a good team. As fans, we should expect big things. We are expecting big things.
On the other hand, expectation doubles as a weight. With karmic balance finally having swung back in Toronto’s favor, there’s something on the line for the Raptors for once. Last season was fun in part because the Raptors were winning, but it was also fun because their success took everyone — including the players and management — by surprise. The experience for both the team, and its fans will surely change with perspective. The ante is in the pot. After toiling in the league’s basement for so long, squandering the momentum is not an an option.
Personally, I’m more hopeful than expectant. I think it’s the healthier line to take. I’ll happily trade exuberance and abrasiveness for quiet victories. I don’t like shitting on other teams — excluding the Knicks and Celtics — to validate my appreciation for my own squad. As a fanbase, let’s stay humble, keep expectations in line and critiques of other teams to a minimum. Let’s not get carried away and become Lakers fans.
Now this is going to be fun (but hopefully not fun, like the 2012-13 Lakers)
Don’t sleep on the Atlanta Hawks. Despite their 38-44 record last season, there’s more that meets the eye with the Hawks. Their frontcourt features two two-way All-Stars in Paul Millsap and Al Horford. The backcourt doesn’t nearly lend as much to name recognition, but head coach Mike Budenholzer’s Spurs-centric offense is designed to get the most out of players like Jeff Teague, Thabo Thefolosha and Kyle Korver. Their offense is well-structured, built on staying true to fundamental principles like ball movement and floor spacing to complement a roster of smart, team-first players.
But don’t get too excited, either. Don’t buy into the whole trope of, “oh, the Hawks were the third-best team in the East before Horford went down.” That tired party line is disingenuous. They played well, but 16-13 is nothing to write home about. There are plenty of legitimate reasons to get excited about the Hawks without needing to dabble in irrelevant pieces of trivia.
Point Guard – Raptors
Kyle Lowry, Greivis Vasquez vs. Jeff Teague, Shelvin Mack
The Raptors have the best player in the bunch in Lowry. He’s coming off the best year of his career and he has looked sharp all preseason. His two-way play should fluster Teague and Mack for much of the game. Vasquez is more of a worry, having looked noticeably slower in preseason, but his troubles seemed to mostly stem from unfamiliarity playing with backcourt mate Lou Williams, than anything else.
Teague, however, is a legitimate concern. He has the quickness advantage over both Lowry and Vasquez, and he can score in bunches, especially if his shot is on. Having a maneuverable, savvy screen setter in Horford should afford Teague additional room to operate.
Mack is more of a combo guard. He’s very adept at spotting up as an off-guard, popping behind screens to launch threes. Luckily, his shot isn’t very consistent.
Shooting Guard – Raptors
DeMar DeRozan, Lou Williams vs. Kyle Korver, Thabo Sefolosha
The secret is finally out on Korver. If you’re still living in the past, thinking of Korver as just a shooter, do yourself a solid and read Zach Lowe’s piece on Korver’s nuanced and effective style of play. Korver will keep the Raptors on their toes all night with his movement and ability to shoot.
But DeRozan is a star, and although his three-point shot isn’t nearly as pure as Korver’s, DeRozan’s ability to create off the dribble and to draw fouls outweighs Korver’s more narrow contributions. It’s a tricky task, comparing do-it-all contributors to that of a role player. Korver serves his role better, but DeRozan’s role is bigger. That puts him ahead in my book.
Lou Williams, an offensive sparkplug that embodies the antithesis of Sefolosha’s defense-first, offense-never mentality.
Small Forward – Even
Terrence Ross, James Johnson vs. DeMarre Carroll, Kent Bazemore
Carroll enjoyed a breakout campaign last season, trading in his fringe bench role for a well-deserved spot in the starting lineup. He is a tenacious, physical defender who can also knock down kickouts. In terms of his role, Carroll is an advanced form of Ross, who is still too inconsistent to be relied upon as a contributor on a nightly basis.
Power Forward – Hawks
Amir Johnson, Patrick Patterson vs. Paul Millsap, Elton Brand
This one was close. Millsap is the best player out of the bunch, but Amir and Patterson provides the Raptors with two different looks. On the whole, look for Amir to shoulder the bulk of minutes defending against Millsap, but Patterson’s added mobility could also work. The hardest part about guarding Millsap is that he’s a threat to shoot from deep, but can also put the rock on the floor to counter closeouts. He’s also adept at finding the open shooter if and when defenses collapse.
The Hawks’ depth puts them over the top. Coming off the bench is yet another mobile floor-stretching big in Mike Scott. His playstyle might give the Raptors fits, if only because the Raptors will have to commit defenders away from the paint.
Center – Hawks
Jonas Valanciunas vs. Al Horford
Despite playing out of position, Horford is one of the best two-way centers in the league. He’s deadly as a pick-and-pop option from inside the three-point line, and his post game is decent. Most importantly, Horford ranks as a good rim-protector. He makes the correct rotations, and has enough size to challenge shots at the rim. Valanciunas will have his hands full, especially if he’s being lured away from the basket.
Prediction – Raptors 102, Hawks 99
Vegas says: Raptors by 5.5, O/U 200.
Ludacris’s cow says: Moo, bitch, get out the way.
William says: Raptors eke out a narrow win in front of a tense home crowd. Horford’s minutes are capped at 30, setting the stage for Pero Antic and Jonas Valanciunas to duke it out in the post. The stakes are high — the loser will have to shave their beard. DeRozan scores 12 in the fourth quarter and hits a pair of clutch free-throws to secure the victory.
