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August Auto Sales Could Barely Top A Big Month A Year Ago

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Forecasters expect August auto sales within a percentage point of the same month last year – a not-bad outcome, but not exactly gangbusters for U.S. auto sales.

Several analysts said they expect the Chrysler Group to continue to outpace the rest of the market, especially the Jeep brand.

Through July, U.S. auto sales year to date were about 9.6 million, up 5 percent from the same period a year ago, according to AutoData Corp. But Chrysler Group sales were up 13.3 percent to almost 1.2 million, and Jeep sales were up 44.4 percent, to about 392,000 year to date.

For the industry as a whole, Edmunds.com, Santa Monica, Calif., was on the glass-half-full side. Edmunds.com said last week it expects U.S. auto sales of just over 1.5 million for the month, making August 2014 the highest month in more than a decade, since August 2003.

However, that would be just barely. That forecast was an improvement of only about 0.7 percent vs. August 2013.

August 2013 is a hard act to follow. According to AutoData, Woodcliff Lake, N.J., U.S. auto sales in August 2013 were up 17 percent from August 2012.

The auto manufacturers are expected to announce August 2014 sales on Wednesday, Sept. 3. According to AutoData, the manufacturers will include sales from the long Labor Day weekend in the “August” results, through Tuesday, Sept. 2. That’s standard industry procedure, depending on when the holiday falls.

On the glass-half-empty side, Kelly Blue Book forecast August sales of about 1,490,00, down about 0.7 percent from a year ago. Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book, Irvine, Calif., said in a written statement he “wouldn’t be surprised” to see incentive spending increase to stimulate sales.

Splitting the difference, TrueCar Inc., also based in Santa Monica, said it expects August 2014 sales to be flat vs. a year ago. Since August 2014 had one fewer official “selling day” than August 2013, a flat result would mean the daily average actually increased 3.7 percent, TrueCar said.