If you think the Angels are going to have a tough time contending in 2014, wait until 2016.
At that point, they are going to have about $100 million committed to four players: Albert Pujols, who will be 36 on opening day; Jered Weaver, 33; Josh Hamilton, 34; and C.J. Wilson, 35. They’ll also be paying Mike Trout at least $10 million by then.
What that ought to tell you is the Angels don’t really have the opportunity to use 2014 as the start of any sort of “rebuilding” phase. They need to maximize their chances to win the World Series before their highest-paid players get to an age when they are almost certain to have their performance and their salary going in opposite directions.
While it’s going to be easier for them to field a winning team next year than a few years later, it’s still going to be a difficult task for General Manager Jerry Dipoto, or whoever is running the show.
Fixing the Angels begins with improving the starting rotation. For all the hand-wringing over Pujols and Hamilton, the reason the Angels didn’t win this season is the starting pitching didn’t live up to expectations.
It was a combination of poor performances from pitchers such as Tommy Hanson and Joe Blanton, and a lack of depth to replace Weaver and Jason Vargas when they were injured.
Poor starting pitching leads to bullpen problems by causing relievers to be overworked, and it also puts a strain on hitters constantly forced to come from behind.
Weaver, Wilson and Garrett Richards are essentially set for three of the five spots next season.
To be a championship-caliber team, the Angels likely need to find two other starters who are No. 3 caliber pitchers, not No. 5s.
One of them could be Vargas, who is a free agent this winter. He has said he enjoyed pitching for the Angels, who want him back. The only issue is whether the Angels can re-sign him for a price that fits their budget.
Vargas made $8.5 million this season. Edwin Jackson, who has similar career stats but better raw stuff, signed for $12 million a year last winter. Vargas’ annual salary probably will fit between those two figures.
Bronson Arroyo, A.J. Burnett, Bartolo Colon, Scott Feldman, Matt Garza, Phil Hughes, Hiroki Kuroda, Tim Lincecum, Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana are the best free-agent pitchers.
With such a thin and undistinguished crop, the bidding for the best of that group could get away from the Angels.
The Angels are in a tight financial box because they don’t want their payroll next season to be more than the $189 million Competitive Balance Tax threshold. That is calculated by using average annual values, and it includes benefits and bonuses, so the salary figure for CBT purposes is higher than the actual salary they will pay in 2014.
Because of the financial implications and the quality of the free agents, the Angels’ better bet is to go the trade route.
They could try to swing a deal for a pitcher such as David Price, but he has only two years left until he can become a free agent and he’ll make around $30 million through arbitration.
It’s more likely the Angels will try to acquire a young, cheap starter, but they are not easy to get because teams that have them rightly don’t want to give them up.
To get a pitcher like that, the Angels likely would have to part with a big piece of their major league roster.
Howie Kendrick and Mark Trumbo are the two most logical players to be discussed. Second base is the deepest position in the organization, including newly acquired Grant Green. Trumbo could be expendable if the Angels are confident in getting back a healthy Pujols to play first base.
The Angels could use some combination of J.B. Shuck, Kole Calhoun and Peter Bourjos to plug the lineup hole left by trading Trumbo.
Besides, the Angels are counting on Hamilton and Pujols having improved seasons next year, which also would lessen the impact of losing Kendrick or Trumbo.
The Angels tried to get Zach Lee, the Dodgers’ No. 1 pitching prospect, for Kendrick in July. They discussed sending Trumbo to the Rays last winter for Jeremy Hellickson.
Dipoto is going to have to make that type of deal, and he’s going to have to hit the jackpot on the pitcher he gets back.
Because the starting pitching needs will take up most the Angels’ resources – financially and in terms of the few trade chips available – they’ll have to find some bargains to fill their other needs.
The Angels need a third baseman. It’s probably not realistic to think they can get one everyday player, so they might have to sign someone such as Eric Chavez to share the job with some combination of Chris Nelson and Luis Jimenez.
Kaleb Cowart, one of their top prospects, might be ready to be the everyday third baseman sometime in 2015.
The Angels also need more bullpen depth. The good news is they don’t need a closer. Ernesto Frieri has solidified that role with two years in the ninth inning.
Finding good setup men is about scouting and – frankly – luck, more than about spending money. The Angels also should benefit from having a healthy Sean Burnett and Kevin Jepsen next year.
If the Angels can upgrade their pitching, they have a chance to be back in the playoffs next year. And if they can’t make it back in 2014, it’s only going to get more difficult.
ALL QUIET ON FIRING FRONT
On the first day of the offseason, the Angels made no announcements about the job statuses of Dipoto or Manager Mike Scioscia.
Dipoto has one year remaining on his contract and Scioscia has five years remaining on his, but both have been the subject of speculation regarding their jobs because of the Angels’ third-place finish and 78-84 record.
Scioscia has managed the Angels since 2000. The current four-year playoff drought is the longest in his tenure.
Contact the writer: jlfletcher@ocregister.com